|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Mladjan, Mrdjan; Nikolova, Elena |
| Abstract: | This chapter revisits the scholarship on life satisfaction in Eastern Europe. We first look at the broader drivers of life satisfaction identified in the literature. Then, we discuss the 'happiness gap' in Eastern Europe - the observed difference between the self-declared happiness of residents of former communist countries and the residents of other countries. Explanations for the happiness gap are considered, with a focus on Eastern Orthodox religion. |
| Keywords: | Eastern Europe, Happiness Gap, Life Satisfaction, Orthodox Christianity |
| JEL: | D91 P29 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1619 |
| By: | Sprengholz, Maximilian (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In Germany, immigrants of different origins have higher income poverty rates than natives to varying but substantial degrees. In this study, I examine nativity gaps in income poverty among heterosexual couple households (with and without children) in Western Germany and pair-wise compare households of native couples with households in which at least one partner is an immigrant, distinguishing between immigrants from Turkey, Poland, and the former Soviet Union. Building on a theoretical model of household poverty, I analyze how the nativity and gender-specific labor market disadvantages of partners accumulate at the household level, where they constrain labor income sufficiency given household needs and available transfers. I decompose poverty gaps using matching and entropy balancing techniques with respect to nativity differences in partners' work intensities and wages; I also consider differences in household size, children's labor income, and non-labor income. While all of these channels are relevant, inequality in male partners' wages is the most important factor overall, accounting for 23-37 % of the observed nativity poverty gaps by immigrant origin. For Turkish immigrant households, however, nativity disadvantages in the work intensity of male (23 %) and especially female (41 %) partners are most consequential, which play a comparatively minor role for the other origins. Notably, substantial poverty gaps would remain for each comparison even if both partners in immigrant households had the same work intensities as their native counterparts. |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ms6jn_v1 |
| By: | Frantisek Brazdik; Karel Musil; Tomas Pokorny; Tomas Sestorad; Jaromir Tonner; Jan Zacek |
| Abstract: | We present the upgraded version of g3+, the Czech National Bank's core forecasting model, which became operational in April 2024 and summarizes its additional modifications over 2024. This paper outlines the innovative features of the model and the motivations behind their adoption. The enhancements also reflect the period from 2020 to 2022, which was marked by extraordinary events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant surge in energy commodity prices. The upgraded g3+ now includes, among others, the endogenous decomposition of foreign economic activity into gap and trend components, a refined structure of foreign producer prices, and adjusted links between foreign and domestic economies. In addition, several model parameters have been recalibrated to reflect current and anticipated economic conditions. The introduction of these model changes and parameter adjustments lead to improved forecasting performance relative to the previous version of the model. |
| Keywords: | Conditional forecast, DSGE, energy, g3+ model, small open economy, two-country model |
| JEL: | C51 C53 E27 E37 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/7 |
| By: | Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Lydia Papadaki; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The Black Sea holds immense strategic and economic value as a hub linking Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Yet, its Blue Economy-encompassing fisheries, tourism, transport, renewable energy, and marine biotechnology-remains underutilized and fragmented. The EU-funded DOORS project addresses this gap by fostering collaboration among scientists, citizens, and industry stakeholders to tackle marine degradation and climate impacts. Utilizing a System Innovation Approach (SIA) and Multi-Actor Forums (MAFs), the project supports the co-creation of innovation pathways aligned with stakeholder needs and regional policy agendas, including the Common Maritime Agenda (CMA) and the Black Sea Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda (SRIA). Through the design and implementation of Multi Actor Fora across six Black Sea countries - Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine -, this study reveals the sectors with the greatest importance for the region, as well as the key challenges, and develops 26 tailored innovation pathways for all priority sectors. Results reveal major innovation gaps across sectors-particularly in sustainable aquaculture, maritime transport, and ocean governance-highlighting the urgent need for strategic planning, digital infrastructure, stakeholder engagement, and transboundary cooperation to realise a resilient and inclusive Blue Economy by 2050. |
| Keywords: | Multi-Actor Forums, Stakeholder engagement, Blue Economy, Black Sea, Systems Approaches |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2541 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical. |
| Keywords: | climate change; shock; migration; extreme weather events; agriculture; food security; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175059 |
| By: | Michal Franta; Jan Vlcek |
| Abstract: | Inflation at Risk provides a coherent description of the risks associated with an inflation outlook. This paper explores the practical applicability of this approach in central banks. The method is applied to Czech inflation to highlight issues related to short data sample. A set of quantile regressions with a non-crossing quantiles constraint is estimated using monthly data from the year 2000 onwards, and the model's in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance are then assessed. Furthermore, we discuss the Inflation at Risk estimates in the context of several historical events and demonstrate how the approach can inform monetary policy. The estimation results suggest the presence of nonlinearities in the Czech inflation process, which are related to supply-side pressures. In addition, it appears that regime changes have occurred recently. |
| Keywords: | Inflation dynamics, inflation risk, quantile regressions |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/8 |
| By: | Tami Dinh (University of St. Gallen, Institute of Accounting, Control, Auditing); Florian Eugster (University of St. Gallen - Institute of Accounting, Control and Auditing; Swiss Finance Institute); Zhongze Li (Nanjing Audit University); Yuchen Wu (University of St. Gallen); Yi Zhang (University of St. Gallen (HSG)) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how employee pressure influences digital washing—when firms exaggerate their digital transformation in public disclosures without matching substantive, actual actions. Using data on Chinese listed firms from 2008 to 2021, we measure digital washing as the gap between digital-related keywords in annual reports and digital-related intangible assets. Results show that firms facing higher employee pressure are more likely to engage in digital washing. This effect is more pronounced in state-owned firms, labor-intensive firms, and firms in less market-oriented regions. A Difference-in-Differences analysis using the 2017 U.S.-China trade war supports our findings. Moreover, the consequences test shows that digital washing is associated with increased stock liquidity, indicating a favorable market response to digital washing. Overall, the findings highlight how firms facing conflicting institutional logics—pressures to modernize through digital transformation while maintaining employment—may engage in digital washing as a response. |
| Keywords: | Digital Washing, Institutional Logics, Digital Transformation, Employee pressure |
| JEL: | D22 D23 L20 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2549 |
| By: | Zhang, Xin; Chen, Xi; Sun, Hong; Yang, Yuanjian |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide one of the first population-based causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on suicidal ideation-a key precursor to suicide attempt and completion-among school-age children. We use daily variations in the local wind direction as instruments to address endogeneity in pollution exposure. Matching a unique risk behavior survey of 55, 000 students from 273 schools with comprehensive data on air pollutants and weather conditions according to the exact date and location of schooling, our findings indicate that a 1% decline in daily PM2.5 is associated with a 0.36% reduction in the probability of suicidal ideation. Moreover, the dose-response relationship reveals that the marginal effects increase significantly and non-linearly with elevated concentration of PM2.5. The effect is particularly pronounced among younger, male, students from low-educated families, and students with lower grades. |
| Keywords: | suicidal ideation, air pollution, school-age children, risky behaviors, China |
| JEL: | I31 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1618 |