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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Jaroslav Vlach (Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the financial dynamics, strategic growth, and innovation within the sugar production sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 2013-2022. It focuses on six countries-Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and analyzes 14 major sugar-producing companies using a combined methodological approach based on time-series trend analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Key financial metrics such as capital structure, working capital, operating revenue, profitability, and employment are examined to assess differences in performance across firms and countries. The research is framed by three central questions that investigate the interaction between company size, financial stability, national market context, and development potential. A major turning point for the sector-the abolition of the EU sugar quota system in autumn 2017-marked the beginning of a fully liberalized market environment, intensifying global competition and reshaping regional production strategies. The results indicate that larger firms tend to provide financial stability but exhibit limited growth trajectories, while smaller companies are more adaptable and often demonstrate stronger development potential. National differences are also significant: the Czech Republic and Poland emerge as dynamic and competitive markets; Austria and Germany reflect mature industries with constrained growth prospects; Hungary and Slovakia show financial challenges yet offer opportunities for development. By identifying structural trends and regional disparities, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of the post-quota sugar market. It offers relevant insights for policymakers and industry leaders aiming to balance financial health, innovation, and sustainability in order to ensure the sector's long-term competitiveness in a volatile global economy. |
| Keywords: | principal component analysis, dynamics of the sugar market, financial stability, company development, equity, Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C38 G30 L66 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:01_2025 |
| By: | Daniel Stodt |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the non-linearity of fiscal multipliers in the Czech Republic and their dependence on the phase of the economic cycle. Using an STVAR model, the variability of fiscal multipliers across different economic phases is analyzed. The findings show that fiscal multipliers are higher during recessions (1–1.5) and lower during expansions (0–0.5), aligning with the general scientific consensus. The study also suggests that as the strength of an economic expansion gradually declines, multipliers gradually increase. These results emphasize the effectiveness of fiscal policy during recessions and its importance in stabilizing aggregate demand. However, the research highlights limitations caused primarily by the short available data series and the limited number of recessionary episodes in the Czech Republic, which may impact the generalizability of the findings. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle, fiscal multipliers, STVAR |
| JEL: | C32 E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/3 |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Lukas Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic provides a unique setting to examine the effects of loan moratoria during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it combined broad-access legislative moratoria with stricter, eligibility-based bank moratoria. Using detailed loan-level data from the Czech mortgage market, we find that legislative moratoria were predominantly precautionary, addressing a wide range of borrowers, whereas bank moratoria were primarily utilized by higher-risk borrowers facing solvency challenges. Post-moratoria, we observe limited materialization of credit risk, which was nearly twice as high for bank moratoria compared to legislative moratoria. Stricter borrower-based regulations (LTV, DTI, and DSTI limits) implemented prior to the pandemic were associated with lower moratoria uptake and reduced post-moratoria arrears. These findings underscore the effectiveness of combining universal legislative moratoria with targeted bank measures to balance immediate economic relief and long-term financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based measures, COVID-19 economic policy, credit risk mitigation, loan moratoria, mortgage arrears |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/1 |
| By: | Iga Magda; Agata Rozszczypała |
| Abstract: | Problem: Despite regulations aimed at reducing gender inequality, significant disparities in the earnings of men and women persist in the labour market. These inequities are unjust and inefficient, hindering increased female participation in the workforce, which is critically needed from both economic and demographic perspectives. Main message: Comparing men's and women's average earnings does not fully reflect the extent of pay inequality in Poland. The adjusted gender pay gap—accounting for differences in education, experience, and occupation—is substantially higher. It is particularly pronounced in the private sector, among individuals aged 35–44, and in male-dominated industries. Effectively implementing the pay transparency directive could help reduce pay inequality. Companies should start preparing for it now. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, women on the labour market, pay transparency |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp012025 |
| By: | Joan Costa-i-Font; Anna Nicinska; Melcior Rossello Roig |
| Abstract: | We compare inequality and social mobility trends in European countries exposed to Soviet Communist (SC) regimes with those not exposed, using similar welfare mea-sures. We draw upon a rich retrospective dataset that collects relevant welfare measures across regimes, including information on living space and self-reported health, and relevant inequality and mobility indices for ordinal and categorical data. Our results suggest evidence of comparable welfare inequality trends in countries exposed to SC and those unexposed. Although individuals exposed to SC enjoyed higher levels of social mobility, differences in inequality across countries exposed to different regimes were negligible. A plausible explanation lies in the countervailing role of the welfare state in countries not exposed to SC and the inefficiency of the bureaucratic allocation of private goods aimed at reducing inequality in countries exposed to SC. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, welfare, living space, self-reported health, health inequality, education; social mobility, Soviet Communism, bureaucracies, European Communist Regimes |
| JEL: | I14 H53 I13 I38 N34 P20 P29 P36 P46 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11916 |
| By: | Dreoni Ilda (European Commission - JRC); Serruys Hannes (European Commission - JRC); Manso Luis (European Commission - JRC); Tudo Jose; Amores Antonio F (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Consumption taxes are a crucial revenue source for EU Member States, yet they also potentially have non-negligible impact on income distribution. The EU's tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, has recently been extended to simulate consumption taxes (CT) across all 27 EU countries allowing researchers and practitioners to examine carefully their design and assess trade-offs. The CT simulation uses consumption patterns derived from Household Budget Survey (HBS) microdata, which are imputed into EUROMOD's input data using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) microdata which contains detailed socio-demographic and socio-economic information. The imputation process employs a statistical matching procedure that joins HBS (the donor survey) with EU-SILC (the recipient survey) using a predictive mean matching method. Expenditure data are integrated into the recipient survey using a multi-stage procedure that involves the use of estimated probit and linear regression models combined with a distance-hot deck approach for the final observation mapping. This methodology offers enhanced results compared to traditional approaches such as only regression-based or distance-based. The imputation performance in distributional terms and the macro validation of the resulting datasets are thoroughly examined. We assess the impact of potential distortions from the statistical matching process by conducting a set of exploratory and comparative analyses, and also by using an administratively matched dataset for Czechia from 2019 to 2021. Our findings in this specific case indicate that, on average, the majority of imputed expenses are exactly the same when comparing the original HBS data with the matched SILC data that includes fitted expenditures. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202502 |
| By: | Ivan Trubelik; Tomas Karhanek; Simona Malovana; Ales Michl |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the adoption and evolution of the instant payment system (IPS) in Czechia, focusing on its integration into the Czech Express Real Time Interbank Gross Settlement (CERTIS) system. Since 2018, CERTIS has enabled 24/7 CZK fund transfers, boosting transaction efficiency. Voluntary bank participation led to rapid uptake, and by 2024, IPS-participating banks handled over 90% of CERTIS client transactions, with 50% of interbank retail payments processed instantly. Czechia's IPS stands out for its seamless bank integration, high reliability, and flexible limits. It also outperforms priority payments for lower-value transactions. The paper explores future developments, including cross-border payments and links to central bank digital currencies. |
| Keywords: | CERTIS, instant payment system, real-time settlement, transaction efficiency |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/4 |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | There has been an unprecedented development in the governance of the supply of resources, services, innovations, and marketing of products of Bulgarian farms over the last two decades. However, due to insufficient (statistical, official, etc.) information and traditional inadequate (Neoclassical Economics, Agent Theory, etc.) approaches to analysis, there is no complete knowledge of the dominant forms and driving factors of governance in the main functional areas of farm management. This article incorporates the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics framework and identifies the structure of governance and contractual modes used by Bulgarian farms. It is based on original and representative data collected through a survey with the managers of typical farms of different types and locations. The contemporary structure, factors and evolution of market, contract, internal, collective and hybrid modes of governance used by country's farms in the supply of natural, material, biological, financial and human resources, short-term assets, services, innovations, risk management, marketing of farm produce and services, and provision of ecosystem services, are all specified. A comparative study of the governance structures before the EU accession of the country is also made. The systemic application of the incorporated approach is needed, but it requires the collection of a new type of (micro)economic data on important characteristics of agricultural agents, different forms of governance of farm activities and relations, and critical dimensions and costs of transactions. |
| Keywords: | agricultural contracts, land, service, labor, finance, and input supply, marketing, transaction costs, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124824 |
| By: | Josef Sveda |
| Abstract: | How much capital is truly enough to shield banks from default? Understanding this threshold is critical for designing regulatory frameworks that balance financial stability with economic growth. This paper develops a reverse stress testing framework to assess the resilience of the banking sector under extreme credit shocks. It focuses on the conditions under which banks facing distress transition from bail-ins to government bailouts, using the Czech banking sector as a case study. Our findings indicate that a capital ratio of 23.5% is sufficient to absorb losses comparable to the most severe stress experienced during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), preventing the need for public intervention. Moreover, we show that regulatory capital buffers are well-calibrated, covering losses up to the second-largest stress event observed in the GFC. Unlike many reverse stress testing approaches, our model explicitly accounts for the dynamic effects of risk-weighted asset (RWA) adjustments, revealing that static RWA assumptions may overestimate capital resilience. These results provide critical insights for policymakers, suggesting that capital adequacy requirements remain well-calibrated but warrant further scrutiny regarding how risk weights evolve under stress conditions. |
| Keywords: | Bail-in, bailout, banking crisis, capital adequacy, capital ratio, resilience, reverse stress test |
| JEL: | E58 G01 G18 G21 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/5 |
| By: | Vladimir Otrachshenko (National Bank of Slovakia); Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to a better understanding of the drivers of electoral support for Green parties and the environmental actions they promote, which is crucial for ensuring the long-term feasibility of environmental policies. We examine whether individual environmental preferences translate into voting for Green parties and analyze the mechanisms behind this effect. Employing an individual-level survey from developed and developing economies matched with the political parties’ programs globally, we find that individuals who prefer environmental protection over economic growth are likely to translate their preferences into voting and supporting Green parties. These findings are robust to alternative definitions of Green parties and environmental preferences, as well as to potential endogeneity concerns. The key mechanisms behind this relationship are changes in the stringency of environmental regulations, individual economic insecurity, and individual- and country-level exposure to environmental changes. The effect of environmental preferences on Green party voting is less pronounced among individuals living in rural areas and those who are economically disadvantaged, including those with lower levels of education and income. These results suggest that support for Green parties and environmental policies is contingent on voters’ economic security even when environmental preferences are strong. |
| JEL: | D72 H11 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1120 |
| By: | Mr. Tigran Poghosyan |
| Abstract: | Fiscal policy plays an important macroeconomic role in Mongolia. On the one hand, fiscal expansion is seen as a measure to boost aggregate demand. On the other hand, import leakages mitigate the impact of fiscal expansion on growth. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that Mongolia’s total spending and revenue multipliers are below 1, peaking at 0.3 and -0.1, respectively. The lower than 1 multiplier can be explained by import leakages in Mongolia. Capital spending multiplier peaks at 0.6, exceeds and remains more persistent than the current spending multiplier, suggesting that public investment is more efficient in boosting growth than current spending. Tax revenue and non-tax revenue multipliers peak at -0.1 and -0.2, respectively, and are short-lived. Revenue multipliers are broadly comparable in size, but their assessment is challenging due to lack of sizeable tax policy measures in Mongolia. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Multipliers; Structural VAR; Mongolia |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/101 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Zakirov, Bekzod; Useinov, Akhtem |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s and 2000s, Uzbekistan has made considerable progress in improving food security through prioritizing self-sufficiency, crop diversification, and, recently, administrative reforms in the agriculture sector to strengthen this strategic sector of the country. However, growing climate risks, rising food prices, and regional supply disruptions continue to expose the country’s food system to new vulnerabilities. This report emphasizes the importance of both household and food system resilience in ensuring sustainable food security, focusing on balanced nutrition and affordable food, and provides practical policy directions and recommendations. 1. Food availability is strong, but access and affordability remain at risk. Although undernourishment levels are low, many households struggle to afford diverse and nutritious diets. Limited access to healthy food options is the case for rural families and poor urban households, even though many rural families have access to small-scale agriculture. Economic shocks and price fluctuations pose ongoing threats to household food access. 2. Resilience is key to protecting food security during crises. Households with better infrastructure, adaptive capacity, diverse income sources, and strong community networks are more likely to maintain diverse food access during droughts, price shocks, or supply disruptions. Resilience reduces the need for harmful coping strategies and supports recovery. Household resilience also ensures that sufficient and nutritious food is available to maintain food system resilience in the long term. 3. Policies should focus on building resilience across multiple areas. Priority actions include investing in rural infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, expanding social protection systems, and tailoring support to different livelihoods, such as farmers and vulnerable groups. 4. Stronger government and international collaboration are essential. The Government of Uzbekistan could embed resilience into its national food and climate strategies. International partners can support this by aligning funding, improving data systems, promoting innovation, and scaling up inclusive, community-based solutions. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Resilience, Agriculture, Food production |
| JEL: | Q18 D13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:318075 |
| By: | Jaanika Meriküll; Matthias Rottner |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the distributional effects of monetary policy and its dependence on inflation. We document a novel dependency in the earnings heterogeneity channel of monetary policy using high-frequency, administrative tax data from eurozone member Estonia. Monetary policy shocks substantially influence earnings inequality during high-inflation periods, with weaker effects during low-inflation periods. Extending our dataset with granular MPC estimates, we show that earnings heterogeneity amplifies the aggregate MPC and consumption response. In high-inflation periods, consumption and inequality respond more, even though the aggregate MPC may be lower. We rationalise our findings with a nonlinear tractable HANK model featuring inflation dependencies. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, labour income inequality, inflation, state dependency, earnings heterogeneity channel, aggregate MPC |
| JEL: | E52 D31 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1271 |
| By: | Wei Liang; Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper models the cyclical rise and fall of total power - an aggregate of political, economic, military, and ideological strength-through the interplay of power accumulation, consumption, and endogenous non-linear feedback effects such as corruption and inefficiency. By framing total power as a dynamic system, we derive an optimal logistic decision rule for power accumulation from an infinite-horizon optimization problem where the state maximizes long-term utility from power and consumption. A key finding is that the state's time preference (discount factor β) intrinsically determines the logistic map's growth parameter (A). Analyzing this logistic rule using bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, and the Feigenbaum constant, we demonstrate how decreasing patience (lower β, thus higher A) drives transitions from stable equilibria through period doubling cascades (limit cycles) into chaotic regimes, leading to collapse. Finally, we simulate historical power collapses, including those of the Roman Empire, the Soviet Union, and the Ming Dynasty, showing that all state collapses follow the same universal mathematical path - from order to chaos - driven by shifts in effective growth parameters. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos Theory, Power Cycles, State Collapse, Dynamic Optimization |
| JEL: | C61 D72 D74 H11 N40 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:763 |
| By: | Jovid Ikromi |
| Abstract: | This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper explores how alternative financing strategies, such as tax reform, diaspora bonds, thematic bonds, and blended finance, interact with domestic institutions, investor confidence, and citizen perceptions of fiscal fairness. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan, Development finance, Debt sustainability, domestic resource mobilization, Climate change |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-37 |