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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Ivana Ivanova (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Elena Makrevska Disoska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to compare North Macedonia as an EU candidate country, to the Western Balkan countries in circular economy movements. It shows that the country still struggles with advancing circularity and is more focused on waste management practices, which also do not function well. Lack of waste separation, weight equipment, and qualitative waste data with limited access to funds, finance, and knowledge are possible reasons. Plastic as a future raw material which is gaining more attention at a global scale is not even a priority in the Macedonian economy. This paper gives for the first time a link between plastic waste and the circular economy in North Macedonia, highlighting the economic sectors and the role that EPR schemes are playing in increasing higher recycling rates, compared with other materials used for packaging. In the end, the authors compare the country with developed EU countries like Slovenia and Germany to examine the effects of higher communal fees would contribute to a more efficient municipal waste system, by using the municipal costs as a percentage of GDP per capita, minimal wage and Income and Living Conditions Indicator. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkan, Municipal waste, Waste management, Circular economy, European Union, Republic of North Macedonia, Plastic, Resource productivity |
| JEL: | F63 Q53 Q52 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:159-173 |
| By: | Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Lydia Papadaki; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The Black Sea possesses significant potential for a thriving blue economy; nonetheless, it encounters distinct hurdles in achieving sustainable growth of marine businesses. DOORS Black Sea, a European Union-funded initiative, seeks to tackle these challenges by creating an open research support system. DOORS implements a system of systems (SoS) to mitigate the effects of human activity and climate change on the marine ecology, fostering 'blue economy' opportunities and revitalising the Black Sea. Engagement with stakeholders is essential for the effectiveness and usefulness of DOORS, as it links residents, research, and industry. Multi-Actor Forums (MAFs) assemble national stakeholders from Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine to aid scientists in prioritising Black Sea concerns. This paper delineates the MAF findings in the formulation of sectoral innovation paths for the Black Sea, integrating the outputs of the MAFs from all Black Sea nations. This approach facilitates the co-design of the region's System of Systems, equipping researchers with the requisite datasets to tackle environmental challenges and promote the sustainability of the Blue System. This study investigates the potential implications of the findings on the long-term development of the blue economy and associated policies in the region. |
| Keywords: | Black Sea, Stakeholder Engagement, Multi-Actor Forums, Innovation Pathways, Blue Economy, participatory approaches |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2533 |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan represents one of the largest economies in the Central Asian region. Over recent years, Kazakhstan has experienced a rise in temperature and pollution levels due to its overreliance on fossil fuels in energy industries. The rise in temperature and pollution levels has contributed to the rise of extreme weather conditions, including floods, and the increase in health issues and mortality rates. This working paper analyses the current condition in the Oskemen region of Kazakhstan in terms of air pollution indicators. The manuscript also provides related consequences and solutions to the current environmental problems in the region. |
| Keywords: | Environment, Economic analysis, Central Asia |
| JEL: | F64 N5 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:316141 |
| By: | Cooper, Luke |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving political economy of the Russo-Ukrainian War, arguing that despite its asymmetric nature, the conflict has become more balanced due to Ukraine’s institutional resilience and consistent financial support from allies. Neither side currently has a viable path to total victory. Both economies have adopted forms of military Keynesianism, though in distinct ways shaped by regime type and external dependencies: Ukraine on allied funding, Russia on volatile oil rents. Ukraine has secured financing until 2027 and maintained monetary stability, while Russia faces growing economic risks, including a potential credit crunch and balance of payments crisis. War has reshaped both states’ capacity for autonomous organisation, central to mobilising resources and restructuring their economies. As global geopolitics fragment and protectionism rises, the prospects for peace are increasingly defined by economic pressures and shifting alliances. A ceasefire, if reached, is likely to be unstable, with Russia potentially maintaining a militarised economy. Ukraine, meanwhile, has shifted its focus from military breakthroughs to securing long-term security guarantees. The outcome of negotiations will hinge not only on military dynamics but also on the internal strains shaping each regime’s strategic calculus. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127985 |
| By: | Ines A. Ferreira; Rachel M. Gisselquist; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | Knowledge of the factors driving people's views on redistribution in the Global South remains limited. While these societies occupy top positions in inequality rankings, redistribution levels tend to be lower. We combine survey and experimental data from Mozambique and Viet Nam to test whether redistributive preferences vary depending on the source of inequality, focusing on two channels: fairness views and communication. First, we confirm that inequality resulting from differences in merit is more accepted than inequality due to luck or factors outside of individual control. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Altruism, Mozambique, Viet Nam, Redistribution |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-24 |
| By: | Martin Ottmann; Patricia Justino |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory since 2014 has forced its government to implement emergency measures that challenge legal order. This paper examines how citizens' exposure to these security responses shapes their perceptions of the rule of law. Using proximity to war violence as a proxy for state emergency measures, we analyse World Values Survey data collected before (2011) and after (2020) the Donbas conflict alongside spatially weighted conflict data. |
| Keywords: | Rule of law, Armed conflict, Survey, Trust |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-28 |
| By: | Jonas HJORT; Yukiko SAITO; Yasuka TATEISHI; Linda WU |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of a quasi-experimental wage shock triggered by Vietnam’s 2011 minimum wage reform. Using rich firm-level administrative data, we find that the minimum wage hike led to a significant decline in employment for Vietnamese-owned firms, whereas its impact on employment of multinational enterprises (MNEs) was minimal but positive. At the extensive margin, more exposed Vietnamese firms exit from the market, while MNEs remain unaffected. Furthermore, by constructing a comprehensive firm-level dataset that links Japanese headquarters with their Vietnamese subsidiaries, we find no evidence of labour substitution in response to the wage increase. A survey of Japanese MNEs helps explain this finding that multinationals typically absorb increased labour costs in their foreign subsidiaries. Overall, our findings suggest that MNEs remain an important driver of job creation in developing countries, even amid rapid wage growth. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25037 |
| By: | Dominika Perdoch Sladká (Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University); Anna Matysiak (Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | As labour-replacing technologies, such as industrial robots and AI-driven automats, alter the structure of labour demand, the task content of occupations has emerged as an increasingly important indicator of socioeconomic position. This study explores how exposure to job automation influences short-term marital intentions, using data from 1, 345 respondents in the Czech Household Panel Survey (2015–2019) and occupational measures derived from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) Database. Our findings reveal a gendered pattern: men employed in highly routine-intensive occupations—indicative of greater vulnerability to automation—are more likely to report no plans to marry. Conversely, women in similar jobs are more likely to express positive marital intentions. These results highlight how technological change not only alters labour market outcomes but also shapes demographic behaviours through the lens of gender norms. The study contributes to broader debates on the interplay between socioeconomic disadvantage and family formation, suggesting that automation may be contributing to a growing group of ‘non-marriageable’ men. As technological change continues to transform the labour markets, especially with the rise of artificial intelligence, the number of individuals at risk of both economic and relational marginalization may further expand. |
| Keywords: | task content of jobs, marital plans, marriage, gender roles, Czechia |
| JEL: | J10 J11 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-13 |
| By: | Anna Matysiak (Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw); Lucas van der Velde (Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw; Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics; Group for Research in Applied Economics, GRAPE) |
| Abstract: | We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 97% had been conducted on this ground. Using vital statistics and interrupted time series analysis, we find a significant and immediate decline in births of around 6.6%. The fertility response was strongest among younger women and first-time mothers, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the increased risks of pregnancy. Contrary to expectations, highly educated women did not significantly adjust fertility, likely due to greater access to abortion services abroad. Our findings demonstrate that abortion bans may lower fertility when they substantially increase the perceived costs and risks of childbearing, particularly in societies with widespread contraceptive use. These results provide insights relevant to current debates in the United States, where overturning of Roe v. Wade may also reshape fertility patterns. |
| Keywords: | abortion, reproductive rights, fertility, Poland |
| JEL: | J10 J11 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-12 |
| By: | Luong-Thanh Tran; Andreas Freytag |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s path to sustainable and innovative growth increasingly depends on how effectively it diversifies and repositions its export portfolio in the global market, or how the country “brand” itself through its exports to the world. Using data from UN Comtrade, we construct the Product Space model for Vietnam, visualizing the relatedness among the products in the country's export basket. Benchmarking against the Product Income Index (PRODY), the Product Gini Index (PGI), and the Product Complexity Index (PCI), we find that Vietnam’s high-volume export products such as garments and textiles are hindering the country’s development goals of sustainable growth, income equality, and innovation. Conversely, Vietnam has been able to export a number of small machine and precision equipment that yield higher added value in terms of sustainability and innovation, but these industries are lacking investment to scale up production. This suggests expansion strategies toward these precision tools and contraction for garments and textiles. Alternative options include radical innovation by shifting production to most knowledge-intensive products Vietnam is producing like cermet tools, or a moderate approach of pursuing export strategies of countries with slightly higher level of development than Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | product space, product complexity, economic complexity, PRODY, PGI, innovation, sustainability, Vietnam export, export diversification, export product targeting, network analysis. |
| JEL: | F14 F17 L70 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11836 |
| By: | Thanh Nguyen-Xuan,; Dzung Nguyen-Le,; Quan Tran-Anh,; Tung Nguyen-Duy,; Thanh Ngo-Duc |
| Abstract: | This study investigates drought conditions in Vietnam and its seven sub-climatic regions using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPEI was derived from daily, high-resolution (10-km) precipitation and temperature products from the CMIP6-VN dataset, which statistically downscaled CMIP6 global models. Performance evaluation of 22 CMIP6-VN models confirmed their accuracy in representing precipitation and temperature characteristics for the reference period (1985–2014). Regarding the future period (2015–2099) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), significant warming is projected across Vietnam, while precipitation projections remain uncertain, with most areas anticipated to experience slightly increased rainfall. SPEI results indicate that precipitation significantly influences drought conditions more than temperature, accounting for approximately 70% of the SPEI trend under SSP5-8.5, which consequently introduces substantial uncertainty in drought projections. Drought conditions under different global warming levels (GWLs) were investigated, showing that while drought may not occur more frequently at high GWLs, more extreme drought events are projected. Five models exhibiting the most pronounced increasing drought trends were further analyzed, revealing a eterioration of all drought characteristics, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, and Central Highlands. Copula statistical analysis reveals that drought events with higher return periods tend to be more prolonged and severe in the future. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en18043 |
| By: | Attila Ulrich (University of Nyíregyháza) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the wine revenues of the Rákóczi family and the exchange rates of wines stored in their cellars destined for foreign markets, based on surviving sources from the period between 1660 and 1709. The Rákóczi family, of Transylvanian princely descent, was among the largest landowners in the Kingdom of Hungary. Their private estates, spanning approximately two million acres, were most profitable in the Tokaj wine-growing region. Revenue generated from wine trade and sales played a crucial role in sustaining an opulent court, maintaining a private military force, and supporting cultural and educational endeavors. The profit derived from a single barrel of wine, depending on its quality, could range from three to ten times the initial investment cost. |
| Keywords: | Viticulture, wine trade, wine prices |
| JEL: | N13 Q13 N73 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0278 |
| By: | Tobias Reisch; Andr\'as Borsos; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | Supply chain networks (SCN) form the structural backbone of any society. They constitute the societal metabolism that literally produces everything for everybody by coordinating practically every single person on the planet. SCNs are by no means static but undergo permanent change through the entry and exit of firms and the re-arrangement of supply relations. Here we use a unique dataset to explore the temporal evolution of firms and their supplier-buyer relations of a national SCN. Monthly reported value added tax data from Hungary from 2014 to 2022 allows us to reconstruct the entire economy with 711, 248 companies and 38, 644, 400 connections, covering practically every re-structuring event of an entire economy at firm-level resolution. We find that per year about 25\% of firms exit the SCN while 28\% new ones enter. On average, 55\% of all supply-links present in one year will not be present in the next. We report the half-life time of supply-links to be 13 months. New links attach super-preferentially to firms with a probability, $p(i)\propto k_i^{1.08}$, with $k_i$ firm $i$'s number of supply-connections. We calibrate a simple statistical network generation model that reproduces the stylized characteristics of the dominant Hungarian SCN. The model not only reproduces local network features such as in- and out-degree distributions, assortativity and clustering structure, but also captures realistic systemic risk profiles. We discuss the present model in how rewiring dynamics of the economy is essential for quantifying its resilience and to estimate shock propagation. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.20594 |
| By: | Milan Čupić (University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Economics, Serbia); Predrag Dragičević (State Audit Institution of Serbia); Stefan Vržina (University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Economics, Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between corporate governance and the financial performance of Serbian companies. The research was conducted on 22 non-financial companies listed on the Belgrade Stock Exchange between 2018 and 2022. The data are retrieved from the official websites of the Serbian Business Registers Agency and Belgrade Stock Exchange. The results suggest that the impact of ownership concentration on profitability is negative, while the impact on the market value is positive. On the other hand, the size of the board of directors negatively impacts profitability, while the share of non-executive directors in the board of directors negatively impacts market value. Results also indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the relationship between corporate governance and financial performance and that the impact of corporate governance on financial performance was more significant before the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, Ownership structure, Corporate governance, Financial performance, Non-financial companies |
| JEL: | G34 H12 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:46-56 |
| By: | Bojan Shimbov (University Jaume I, Institute of International Economics & Department of Economics); Andrea Éltető (Institute of World Economics, CERS Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Maite Alguacil (University Jaume I, Institute of International Economics & Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Producing and incorporating technologically complex goods in the production process is a fundamental pillar to achieving long-term economic development. In this sense, integration into the global production and trade networks is viewed by many countries as a way to achieve this technological improvement. This paper examines the relationship between global value chain (GVC) integration and technology absorption through trade in high-tech products of Central and Southeast European countries over the period 1996-2019. We construct a GVC participation measure applying the latest Broad Economic Categories (BEC) classification that distinguishes between generic and specific intermediate goods. We also analyse the technology structure of exports at a country level and the sectoral level. Using panel data estimation techniques, we find that higher participation in GVCs enhances the export of high-tech products at both country and sectoral levels. This result is robust to different regression models including the use of lagged control variables and instrumental variables. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains, Technology Structure of Exports, Central and Southeastern European countries |
| JEL: | F14 F60 C23 C26 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:95-119 |
| By: | Giacomo Zelbi; Leonardo Niccol\`o Ialongo; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The networked nature of supply chains makes them susceptible to systemic risk, where local firm failures can propagate through firm interdependencies that can lead to cascading supply chain disruptions. The systemic risk of supply chains can be quantified and is closely related to the topology and dynamics of supply chain networks (SCN). How different network properties contribute to this risk remains unclear. Here, we ask whether systemic risk can be significantly reduced by strategically rewiring supplier-customer links. In doing so, we understand the role of specific endogenously emerged network structures and to what extent the observed systemic risk is a result of fundamental properties of the dynamical system. We minimize systemic risk through rewiring by employing a method from statistical physics that respects firm-level constraints to production. Analyzing six specific subnetworks of the national SCNs of Ecuador and Hungary, we demonstrate that systemic risk can be considerably mitigated by 16-50% without reducing the production output of firms. A comparison of network properties before and after rewiring reveals that this risk reduction is achieved by changing the connectivity in non-trivial ways. These results suggest that actual SCN topologies carry unnecessarily high levels of systemic risk. We discuss the possibility of devising policies to reduce systemic risk through minimal, targeted interventions in supply chain networks through market-based incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.12955 |