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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Paweł Strzelecki (Narodowy Bank Polski); Jakub Growiec (Narodowy Bank Polski); Robert Wyszyński (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | Following the Russian military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, a large wave of Ukrainian refugees arrived in Poland. By 2024, about 1 million Ukrainian refugees have settled in Poland, on top of about 1.5 million Ukrainians who had immigrated between 2014 and 2022, and about 0.9 million immigrants coming from other countries. In this paper we estimate the contribution of Ukrainian refugees, as well as economic migrants from Ukraine and immigrants from other source countries, to labour supply and economic growth in Poland. Using a unique survey dataset compiled at NBP, we are able to carefully account for the different socio-economic and demographic characteristics of these three distinct groups. We find that in 2021-23, immigrants contributed on average about 0.5 pp. to annual GDP growth per annum (18% of all growth), and 0.5 pp. (13% of all growth) in the preceding period 2013-21. While a significant group of pre-war Ukrainian immigrants left Poland after the Russian military invasion of their country, the contribution of labour of Ukrainian refugees alone amounted to 0.8 pp. per annum in 2021-23 (29% of all GDP growth). These contributions helped sustain economic growth in Poland despite the gradual decline in the dynamics of total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | refugees, immigration, labour supply, economic growth, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | E24 O47 F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:376 |
| By: | Vitezslav Titl |
| Abstract: | Approximately 42% of European public procurement contracts are awarded to a sole bidder. As this market represents about one-seventh of GDP in developed countries, any inefficiency is a first-order concern. This paper examines a Czech reform that prohibited awarding such single-bid contracts. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find the reform reduced prices by 6.1% relative to estimated costs, with no evidence of quality reduction. Furthermore, I provide suggestive evidence that procuring authorities try to actively get more bidders and that the prices of procurement contracts supplied by politically connected and anonymously owned firms were not reduced after the reform. |
| Keywords: | single-bidding, public procurement, political connections, corruption |
| JEL: | D44 D72 H57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11697 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Nici?ska, Anna (University of Warsaw); Rosello-Roig, Melcior (University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Past trauma resulting from personal life shocks, especially during periods of particular volatility, such as regime transition (or regime change), can give rise to significant long-lasting effects on people's health and well-being. We study this question by drawing on longitudinal and retrospective data to examine the effect of past exposure to major individual-level shocks (specifically hunger, persecution, dispossession, and exceptional stress) on current measures of an individual's health and mental well-being. We study the effect of the timing of the personal shocks, alongside the additional effect of 'institutional uncertainty' of regime change in post-communist European countries. Our findings are as follows: First, we document evidence of the detrimental effects of shocks on a series of relevant health and well-being outcomes. Second, we show evidence of more pronounced detrimental consequences of such personal shocks experienced by individuals living in formerly communist countries (which accrue to about 8% and 10% in the case of hunger and persecution, respectively) than in non-communist countries. The effects are robust and take place in addition to the direct effects of regime change and shocks. |
| Keywords: | transition shocks, Soviet communism, later life health, health care system |
| JEL: | I18 H75 H79 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17780 |
| By: | Mats Kröger; Karsten Neuhoff; Sebastian Schwenen |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the war in Ukraine on long-term contracts in energy markets. We find that traded contract volumes fall by 65 percent in the first months of the war. A collapse in bilateral trading contributes most to this decline. To protect themselves from price shocks, firms increasingly turned to long-term contracts already before the war. In sum, our results show that the market continued to serve firms’ hedging needs during the crisis, but bilateral trading networks collapsed, and liquidity was largely provided by centralized markets. |
| Keywords: | Firm behavior, long-term contracts, forward markets, crisis, electricity |
| JEL: | D22 P48 G14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2118 |
| By: | Adamecz, Anna (University College London); Prinz, Daniel (World Bank); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp); Szabo-Morvai, Agnes (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the labor market impacts of a reform that universally lowered the school leaving age from 18 to 16 in Hungary. Using a difference-in-cross-cohort-comparisons approach and linked individual education-employment administrative panel data, we find that the policy led to an increase in the likelihood of dropping out from school and inactivity among individuals aged 16 to 18 but no corresponding increase in employment. Dropouts who were employed predominantly worked in low-skilled occupations. These effects were more pronounced among those from lower socioeconomic status, exacerbating existing inequalities. Our results suggest that the decrease in the school leaving age had adverse effects on school to work transition and did not yield the expected improvements in labor market integration. |
| Keywords: | school leaving age, employment, education reform |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17844 |
| By: | Donehower, Gretchen (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Aging populations in Asia are worried that they are facing a “care crisis, ” with many older people in need of care having no one to care for them. However, we do not have a clear picture of current care patterns: How much care is currently being consumed? Who is providing that care? Are women and men serving equally as paid or unpaid caregivers? We explore the methods for answering some of these basic empirical questions about unpaid care work using the National Time Transfer Accounts, which show that older people are far from being a major source of unpaid care demand, but are making net transfers of time to other age groups well into their elder years. In our group of Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, the Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Thailand, Türkiye, and Viet Nam), these time transfers come on average from women. |
| Keywords: | eldercare; childcare; unpaid care work; time use; transfers |
| JEL: | J13 J14 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0777 |
| By: | Condie, Abbie; Bakhtawar, Alsa; Ireland, Erika; Afroz, Farhana; Hathiari, Neha; kyzy, Syrga Kanatbek; Erdenebat, Munkhshur; Mohammad, Gazi Golam; Das, Utpal Kumar; Meek, Kristin |
| Abstract: | Urban resilience has become a central theme in addressing the complex challenges faced by rapidly growing cities. The Asia Resilient Cities (ARC) Project aims to foster resilience through a co-creation approach that combines participatory systems mapping (PSM) and community engagement. This paper outlines ARC’s methodology, which integrates diverse stakeholder perspectives, including marginalized groups, into urban resilience planning in four cities: Rajkot, India; Khulna, Bangladesh; Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic; and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The paper discusses how ARC adapted lessons from previous projects, emphasizing early and meaningful resident involvement to shape work plans that reflect the lived realities of city residents. Initial results highlight both the strengths and learnings from integrating resident feedback into resilience strategies, demonstrating how co-creation can align technical expertise with local context to create more inclusive, actionable plans. Key themes include the role of systems thinking, multistakeholder participation, and adaptive learning in urban planning. The findings underscore the need for contextualized, collaborative approaches to address the “wicked problems” inherent in urban development and resilience building. |
| Date: | 2025–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c8w2d_v1 |
| By: | George A. Alessandria; Shafaat Yar Khan; Armen Khederlarian; Kim J. Ruhl; Joseph B. Steinberg |
| Abstract: | We study how trade-policy dynamics affect the dynamics of trade volumes and the implications of these effects for estimates of the trade elasticity. We use data on US imports and trade policy from 1974–2017 for China and Vietnam—the countries with the largest import growth and the largest tariff reductions over the last fifty years—and a heterogeneous-firm dynamic trade model to recover the dynamic path of the trade elasticity following an unanticipated, permanent tariff change. We estimate a short-run trade elasticity of about three and a long-run trade elasticity of about 14, and find that it takes about five years to close half of the gap between the current and long-run levels of trade. We argue that the expected dynamics of future trade policy before and after these reforms biases down reduced-form estimates of the long-run trade elasticity and biases up estimates of the short-run elasticity. We argue that these measurement issues are even more problematic for other trade reforms, especially those within the Normal Trade Relations (NTR) regime that constitute the majority of the data. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33568 |
| By: | Hager, Anselm (Humboldt University Berlin); Kazakbaeva, Elnura (Evidence Central Asia); Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Esenaliev, Damir (ISDC - International Security and Development Center) |
| Abstract: | Social norms are crucial drivers of human behavior. However, misperceptions of others’ opinions may sustain norms and conforming behavior even if a majority opposes the norm. Privately shifting individuals’ beliefs about true societal support may be insufficient to change behavior if others are perceived to continue to hold incorrect beliefs (“lack of mutual knowledge”). We conduct a field experiment with 5, 201 women in Kyrgyzstan to test whether creating mutual knowledge about social norms affects how perceived social norms influence behavior. We show that providing information about societal support for female political activism alone does not affect women’s political engagement. However, when perceived mutual knowledge is created, the effect of information about social norms increases significantly. Using vignette experiments, we show that the effect of mutual knowledge on social punishment is a plausible mechanism behind the behavioral impact. These findings suggest that higher-order beliefs about social norms are an important force linking social norms and behavior. |
| Keywords: | social norms, higher-order beliefs, field experiment, political activism |
| JEL: | D70 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17748 |