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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Lisa Scheckenhofer; Feodora A. Teti; Joschka Wanner; Feodora Teti; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions, sanction evasion, military goods trade |
| JEL: | F14 F51 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743 |
| By: | Schmitz, Andrea; Smolnik, Franziska |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen incumbent regimes and the political structures on which their power is built. A widening radius of interaction reinforces perceptions of collective agency and reduces the incentives for political reform. The persistence of authoritarianism parallels the diminishing soft power of the EU and the West in general. In dealing with more assertive Eurasian partners the EU will have to come up with credible offers to strengthen existing relations and harmonise its policies for impact. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, South Caucasus, Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Near Abroad, Eurasian Economic Union, EEU, authoritarianism, Great Patriotic War, orthodox faith, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Organisation of Turkic States, OTS, Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, Ilham Aliyev, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, 3+3 platform |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315526 |
| By: | Margaryta Klymak; Andrew Kosenko; Oleg Korenok; Dariia Mykhailyshyna; Kathryn Vasilaky |
| Abstract: | We analyze how military events, casualties, and media coverage influence same-day donations to a major Ukrainian nonprofit supporting the military during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a unique setting, we exploit random variation in attacks on civilians across time to estimate that one additional civilian fatality causes between $4, 860 and $6, 992 in same-day donations, and leads to at least $15, 550 in cumulative donations. Disentangling the effects of events and media coverage, we estimate that a 1% increase in media mentions of military activity leads to a $2, 584 increase in same day donations and an $8, 121 increase in cumulative donations. |
| Keywords: | Charitable giving; conflict; public goods |
| JEL: | D64 D74 H41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-04 |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", the principle that has guided Western policy since February 2022, no longer applies for Washington. Trump has fundamentally changed both the international environment in which war is taking place and the balance between the parties, paving the way for Russia to dictate the terms of peace. To prevent this from happening, swift and decisive European action is essential. The new German government must play a key role here - and it must do so from its very first day in office. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, war of aggression, US President Donald Trump, Putin, stalemate, ceasefire, "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), Zelensky |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315540 |
| By: | Cuong Viet Nguyen; Quynh Thien Thi Pham; Tung Duc Phung |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine whether a nudging intervention increases eyeglass use among primary and lower-secondary students in Vietnam through a randomized controlled trial. Students with refractive errors in 34 schools in one province were provided with free eyeglasses. Half of the schools were randomly selected, allowing students in these schools to choose from 10 available eyeglass frames. Six months after receiving their eyeglasses, we assessed the impact of frame choice. We find no significant effect of frame choice on students' eyeglass-wearing behavior. |
| Keywords: | Education, Health, Randomized Control Trial, Nudge, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I12 I20 C93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1605 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; José Carlos Coelho; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set covering the 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the 1st step, we compute fiscal and external sustainability time-varying coefficients, modelling the cointegration relationship between government revenues and government spending, and between exports and imports. In the 2nd step, we use three recursive strategies, combined with Granger causality tests: forward expanding, rolling, and recursive window methods to capture causal relationships. Our results show that: (i) peripheral countries have lower sustainability coefficients, while non-Eurozone countries have higher sustainability coefficients, (ii) after the 2008 global financial crisis, there was an improvement in fiscal and external sustainability for most countries, (iii) during the Eurozone crisis in 2010-2012, in Austria, France, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovakia and Spain, there was causality between fiscal and external sustainability, (iv) during that period, causality was observed between the external and fiscal sustainability in EMU countries (Austria, Germany, Malta, Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain) and in non-EMU countries. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, external sustainability, European Union, time-varying causality, lag-augmented vector autoregression |
| JEL: | C22 C23 F32 F41 H30 H62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11694 |
| By: | Sydney Eck; Trang T. Hoang; Devashish Mitra; Hoang Pham |
| Abstract: | Many developing and developed countries have experienced a declining labor share of national output in recent decades (Karabarbounis and Neiman, 2014). Some blame the decline on globalization, although it is surprisingly unclear whether and how globalization is a key contributing factor (Grossman and Oberfield, 2022). |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-03-31-1 |
| By: | Immervoll, Herwig (OECD, Paris); Linden, Jules (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD)); O'Donoghue, Cathal (National University of Ireland, Galway); Sologon, Denisa Maria (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD)) |
| Abstract: | We assess household burdens from a carbon tax with revenue recycling, comparing them to burdens from price changes during the recent cost-of-living crisis. We focus on Lithuania, an OECD country that attained high-income status a decade ago, and that recently enacted a €60/ton CO2 carbon tax despite a challenging policy context, with high poverty rates and concerns about the affordability of energy. Households spend large parts of their budget on energy, but the impact of the carbon tax on overall cost of living is modest (3% on average), substantially smaller than the impact of inflation between 2021-24 (36%). Direct carbon-tax burdens, from higher fuel prices, fall disproportionately on lower-income households. But indirect effects, from higher prices of goods other than fuel, are sizeable and broadly “flat” across the income distribution, which dampens regressivity. We simulate seven different options for compensating households by recycling carbon-tax revenues back to them through transfers or by lowering other taxes. When carefully designed, revenue recycling allows considerable scope for cushioning burdens, and for addressing concerns about disproportionate costs for some groups of households and voters. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, revenue recycling, inflation, inequality |
| JEL: | C8 D12 D31 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17826 |
| By: | Moawad, Jad (Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Previous research has focused primarily on income and wealth inequalities, with less emphasis on saving behavior which is one of the key mechanisms linking these components. This study examines the extent of disparities in household saving behavior across Western countries and how these disparities have evolved over the past two decades. Using data from the Luxembourg Wealth Study (LWS), the most comprehensive dataset on saving behavior to date, this analysis covers 10 countries between 1995 and 2018. The analysis yields three key findings. First, saving inequalities are most pronounced in Spain, Finland, Italy, and the United States. However, the baseline of likelihood of saving among low-income earners vary significantly. Bottom quartile earners in the United States and Finland report saving behavior eight times higher than their counterparts in Italy, and twice that of Spain. Second, saving behavior correlates more strongly with a country's economic performance than with its welfare state or social expenditure levels. Third, the financial crisis impacted saving behavior differently across countries. It reduced saving for all economic strata in Italy and Slovakia, while increasing saving inequalities in Austria, Spain, and the United States. |
| Keywords: | Saving Behavior, Welfare States, Financial crisis, Cumulative advantage |
| JEL: | D14 E21 H55 I38 P52 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2024-08 |
| By: | Ansari, Dawud; Gehrung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Maria |
| Abstract: | Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China - an established player in the market - it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both China and Gulf countries seem to have found a cooperative approach that is based on sharing the Central Asian market along the value chain. This approach could be a blueprint for future Gulf-China relations, which have become relevant for global politics. Simultaneously, the dynamics also exemplify the growing number of energy and geopolitical dynamics over which Europe has little influence. For the European Union (EU) and Germany, the developments serve as a reminder: While intra-Asian dynamics are gaining importance, Germany and the EU risk being marginalised in matters concerning energy, climate, and geopolitics - and not just in Central Asia. In response, a more consistent Central Asia strategy is required, alongside a constructive and non-ideological approach towards relations with the Arab Gulf States. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), EU, Germany, Central Asian market, Gulf-China relations, energy, geopolitical dynamics, ACWA Power Renewable Energy Holding, PowerChina, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, climate technologies, fossil fuels, green energy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315531 |
| By: | Thurner, Stefan; Borsos, András; Tabachová, Zlata (Complexity Science Hub); Diem, Christian (Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School); Stangl, Johannes (Complexity Science Hub) |
| Abstract: | On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes the assessment of transition risks originating from carbon pricing. Based on the individual emissions of all Hungarian firms (410, 523), as estimated from their fossil fuel purchases, we conduct a stress test of both actual and hypothetical carbon pricing policies. Using a simple 1:1 economic ABM and introducing the new carbon-to-profit ratio, we identify firms that become unprofitable and default, and estimate the respective loan write-offs. We find that 45% of all companies are directly exposed to carbon pricing. At a price of 45 EUR/t, direct economic losses of 1.3% of total sales and bank equity losses of 1.2% are expected. Secondary default cascades in supply chain networks could increase these losses by 300% to 4000%, depending on firms' ability to substitute essential inputs. To reduce transition risks, firms should reduce their dependence on essential inputs from supply chains with high CO2 exposure. We discuss the implications of different policy implementations on these transition risks. |
| Keywords: | transition risks, climate stress testing, firm-level carbon emissions estimation, carbon pricing, EU ETS II, supply chain network contagion, firm-level production network, systemic risk, climate policy relevant sectors |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-04 |
| By: | Müller, Melanie; Strack, Lea; Vulović, Marina |
| Abstract: | In July 2024, the European Union (EU) and the Serbian government signed a strategic raw materials partnership. For the EU, this cooperation represents an important step towards diversifying its supply chains and strengthening economic partnerships in its neighbourhood. Serbian President Aleksandar Vuéci´c has a geopolitical interest in this cooperation, which he also wants to use to further consolidate his already extensive power domestically. The signing of the partnership agreement has triggered massive protests in Serbia. Critics fear that the implementation of the raw materials partnership could further undermine already fragile rule-of-law structures, as well as environmental and social standards. The case of Serbia illustrates that the EU can only exert limited influence on the country's authoritarian government in a geopolitically tense context. However, it must strategically use its available leverage to mitigate the existing risks. |
| Keywords: | Serbia, Aleksandar Vuéci´c, rule of law, sustainability, Europe's raw materials cooperation, Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), ESG (environmental, social, governance), Jadar Project, lithium, boron, German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA), Rio Sava |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315536 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has emerged from a challenging history regarding trust and accountability, significantly influencing its current transparency and communication practices. The NBM’s transparency practices align with core and expanded practices as defined by the IMF Central Bank Transparency Code and, in several areas, meet comprehensive practice requirements. External stakeholders view the NBM as a public institution that has recently become more dynamic and transparent, though there is room for improvement. |
| Date: | 2025–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/084 |