nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2025–04–28
twenty-two papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics


  1. The Role of Job Task Degradation in Shaping Return Intentions: Evidence from Ukrainian War Refugees in Poland By Piotr Lewandowski; Agata Górny; Mateusz KrzÄ…kaÅ‚a; Marta PalczyÅ„ska
  2. Bridging the Gap: A Novel M2/LIHC Hybrid Indicator Unveils Energy Poverty Dynamics - Case Study of the Czech Republic By Matej Opatrny; Milan Scasny
  3. Left-behind regions in Poland, Germany, Czechia: Classification and electoral implications By Bernard, Josef; Refisch, Martin; Grzelak, Anna; Bański, Jerzy; Deppisch, Larissa; Konopski, Michał; Kostelecký, Tomáš; Kowalski, Mariusz; Klärner, Andreas
  4. Vietnam Country Case Study By World Bank
  5. The geopolitical externality of climate policy By Beaufils, Timothé; Conyngham, Killian; de Vries, Marlene; Jakob, Michael; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Richter, Philipp M.; Spiro, Daniel; Stern, Lennart; Wanner, Joschka
  6. R&D Policy and the Role of Research Institutions in Fostering Green Innovation in Poland By Diego Ambasz; Javier Sanchez-Reaza; Pluvia Zuniga
  7. Equal Before Luck? Well-Being Consequences of Personal Deprivation and Transition By Joan Costa-Font; Anna Nicińska; Melcior Rosello-Roig; Joan Costa-i-Font
  8. Steering the Human Development Strategy for a Sustainable Green Economy in the Slovak Republic By Husein Abdul-Hamid; Diego Ambasz
  9. Internally Displaced Persons in Azerbaijan By World Bank
  10. The effects of automation on workers’ wages. By Karol Madoń
  11. Talent vs. Hard Work: On the Heterogeneous Role of Human Capital in FDI Across EU Member States By Lubica Stiblarova; Anna Tykhonenko
  12. Greening Public Human Development Buildings in Croatia By Adrien Dozol; Diego Ambasz; Tigran Shmis
  13. Monetary Shocks and Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Postings By Mr. Serhan Cevik; Alice Fan; Sadhna Naik
  14. Temperature and Productivity in Soccer By Vojtech Misak
  15. Adaption of Digital Technologies: the Case of Latvian Firms By Konstantins Benkovskis; Styliani Christodoulopoulou; Olegs Tkacevs
  16. Sub-National Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment - Can Tho City, Vietnam By World Bank
  17. Crop Diversification Analysis at the Farm Level: Empirical Evidence from Different Regions of Uzbekistan By Primov, Abdulla
  18. Uzbekistan Public Expenditure Review, December 2022 By World Bank
  19. Status and Extent of Crop Diversification Index in Uzbekistan and its Empirical Analysis By Primov, Abdulla; Rustamova, Iroda
  20. Interactions Between Public and Private Sector Wages and Inflation in Mongolia By Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
  21. Remittance and household resilience capacity in Georgia By Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Qodirov, Sukhrob
  22. Does a sense of intergenerational commitments modify farmers’ preferences for conservation tillage? Evidence from the choice experiment in Moldova By Kryszak, Łukasz; Czyżewski, Bazyli; Sapa, Agnieszka; Lucasenco, Eugenia

  1. By: Piotr Lewandowski; Agata Górny; Mateusz KrzÄ…kaÅ‚a; Marta PalczyÅ„ska
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between professional experiences and return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using country-wide, online surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023 and worker-level measures of job tasks, we show that refugees' high employment rate coexists with widespread occupational downgrading and task degradation. Refugees transitioning to lower-skilled jobs after arriving in Poland faced stark increases in routine task intensity (RTI), often equivalent to shifts from managerial to clerical roles. Even those retaining their occupational status experienced heightened RTI, signalling underutilisation of skills. We find that refugees who experience a greater task degradation were more likely to plan to return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially, in 2022, did not plan to return. This relationship persists even after accounting for earnings and occupational downgrading. These findings underscore the role of job content in shaping migration decisions and highlight implications for host countries' labour market policies and refugee integration strategies.
    Keywords: migration, return intentions, occupational downgrading, task content of jobs
    JEL: J24 J61 O15
    Date: 2024–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp012025
  2. By: Matej Opatrny (Charles University Environment Centre, Institute of Economics Studies); Milan Scasny (Charles University Environment Centre, Institute of Economics Studies)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a novel composite energy poverty indicator, the M2LIHC, which combines elements of the twice-median expenditure share (2M) and Low Income High Cost (LIHC) measures. Using a unique dataset merging the Czech Household Budget Survey and EU-SILC data from 2017-2022, we demonstrate how this hybrid approach provides new insights into energy poverty dynamics. The M2LIHC indicator addresses key limitations of existing metrics, avoiding the LIHC measure´s counterintuitive response to income changes in the lowest decile and mitigating the 2M indicator´s potential overestimation of energy poverty among higher-income households with high energy costs. Our comparative analysis reveals significant differences in energy poverty rates and household characteristics identified by each indicator. The M2LIHC measure proves more robust to income fluctuations than LIHC while maintaining sensitivity to both income and energy cost components. We find energy poverty in the Czech Republic has increased across all indicators from 2017 to 2022, with the M2LIHC indicator suggesting a rise from 8.9% to 13.5%. To further validate our approach, we employ the DASMOD (Distributional And Social Impact Model) to simulate various energy and climate policy scenarios. These simulations demonstrate the complex effects of compensation policies on energy poverty measures, with M2LIHC providing a more nuanced view of policy impacts. By providing a more comprehensive and theoretically consistent measure of energy poverty, coupled with policy simulation capabilities, the M2LIHC indicator offers policymakers an improved tool for targeting support and assessing the effectiveness of energy poverty alleviation strategies in the context of energy transitions and climate policies.
    Keywords: Energy poverty, LIHC indicator, M2/LIHC Indicator
    JEL: D12 D14 D63
    Date: 2025–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_06
  3. By: Bernard, Josef; Refisch, Martin; Grzelak, Anna; Bański, Jerzy; Deppisch, Larissa; Konopski, Michał; Kostelecký, Tomáš; Kowalski, Mariusz; Klärner, Andreas
    Abstract: Recently, the notion of left-behind places and regions has gained ground in academic debates on regional inequality and changing electoral landscapes. This paper proposes an approach to conceptualising and measuring regional "left-behindness" in three Central Eastern European countries that goes beyond a dichotomous division of regions into "left-behind" versus "not left-behind". It understands left-behindness as a multi-dimensional continuum, representing regional disparities in living standards and socio-economic opportunities. Our understanding of left-behind plades is based to a large extent on the current economic conditions of the regions and their dynamics, but goes beyond them to include a wider range of socially relevant aspects of the living conditions, including educational attainment, poverty, and the attractiveness of places to live. The paper proposes an approach to measuring regional left-behindness and explores how it explains voting patterns. Thus, the paper is motivated by the seminal arguments of the 'geography of discontent' debate. Its proponents have argued that rising support for populist, right-wing nationalist-conservative and antisystem parties is often closely linked to spatial patterns of regional inequality. This argument has been repeatedly tested in Western European countries, but has remained under-researched in Central Eastern Europe. Using our approach, we were able to confirm the validity of the "geography of discontent" as a central thesis for all three countries studied. The novelty and added value of this study is that it extends the understanding of left-behindness and voting. Our multidimensional approach to left-behindness allows for a comprehensive interpretation of spatial patterns of populist voting in Central Eastern Europe. The relationship between regional left-behindness and voting behaviour varies in strength across different countries. In Czechia, there are strong associations for the parties ANO and SPD, but not for the KSéCM. In eastern Germany, the association between leftbehindness and support for the AfD is weaker, as is the case in Poland for the PiS. Another contribution of the multidimensional concept of left-behindness is the finding that different dimensions of left-behindness have different electoral effects. There appears to be a systematic influence of economic prosperity and relative expansion, which primarily capturesthe contrast between metropolitan areas and their hinterlands on the one hand, versus the rest of the country on the other-not only in terms of economic prosperity and relative expansion, but also in terms of a significant social status hierarchy. Poverty, however, shows a less stable relationship.
    Abstract: Der Begriff der "abgehängten" Orte und Regionen hat in akademischen Debatten über regionale Disparitäten und sich verändernde Wahllandschaften an Bedeutung gewonnen. Dieses Paper schlägt einen Ansatz zur Konzeptualisierung und Messung regionaler Disparitäten in drei mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern vor, der über eine dichotomische Unterteilung der Regionen in "abgehängt" versus "nicht abgehängt" hinausgeht. "Abgehängtheit" wird als ein mehrdimensionales Kontinuum verstanden, das regionale Disparitäten in Bezug auf Lebensstandards und sozioökonomische Chancen darstellt. Unser Verständnis von "abgehängten" Regionen basiert weitgehend auf den aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen der Regionen und deren Dynamik, geht jedoch darüber hinaus und schließt ein breites Spektrum sozial relevanter Aspekte der Lebensbedingungen ein, einschließlich Bildungsniveau und Armut. Das Paper schlägt einen neuen Ansatz zur Messung regionaler Disparitäten vor und untersucht, wie diese Wahlverhalten erklären. Das Paper nimmt Bezug auf die grundlegenden Argumente der Debatte über die "Geographie der Unzufriedenheit". Darin wird argumentiert, dass die zunehmende Unterstützung für populistische, rechtspopulistische national-konservative und Anti-System-Parteien oft eng mit räumlichen Mustern regionaler Disparitäten verbunden ist. Diese These wurde wiederholt in westeuropäischen Ländern getestet, jedoch in Mittel- und Osteuropa noch unzureichend untersucht. Mit unseren Analysen können wir die Gültigkeit der Annahmen der "Geographie der Unzufriedenheit"für alle drei untersuchten Länder im Grundsatz bestätigen. Die Neuheit und der Mehrwert dieses Papers bestehen darin, dass darin das Verständnis von regionalen Disparitäten und Wahlverhalten erweitert wird. Unser multidimensionaler Ansatz zur Messung regionaler Disparitäten ermöglicht eine umfassende Interpretation räumlicher Muster populistischen Wahlverhaltens in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Die Beziehung zwischen regionalem "Abgehängtsein" und Wahlverhalten variiert in ihrer Stärke zwischen den verschiedenen Ländern. In Tschechien bestehen starke Assoziationen zu den Parteien ANO und SPD, jedoch nicht zur KSéCM. In Ostdeutschland ist der Zusammenhang zwischen "Abgehängtsein" und Unterstützung für die AfD schwächer, ebenso wie in Polen für die PiS. Ein weiterer Beitrag des multidimensionalen Konzepts des "Abgehängtseins" ist die Erkenntnis, dass verschiedene Dimensionen unterschiedliche Wahleffekte haben. Es scheint einen systematischen Einfluss von wirtschaftlichem Wohlstand und regionalem Wachstum zu geben, der sich vor allem in Unterschieden zwischen städtischen Gebieten und deren ländlichem Umland einerseits und dem Rest des Landes andererseits zeigt. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Armut und sozialer Exklusion auf der einen Seite und dem Wahlverhalten auf der anderen Seite ist jedoch weniger stabil.
    Keywords: Geographie der Unzufriedenheit, politische Geographie, abgehängte Regionen, regionale Disparitäten, Wahlgeographie, Deutschland, Tschechien, Polen, Europäische Union, geography of discontent, political geography, left-behind places, regional disparities, electoral geography, Germany, Czechia, Poland, European Union
    JEL: D72 O18 O57
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:312565
  4. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population-Immunizations
    Date: 2023–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40001
  5. By: Beaufils, Timothé; Conyngham, Killian; de Vries, Marlene; Jakob, Michael; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Richter, Philipp M.; Spiro, Daniel; Stern, Lennart; Wanner, Joschka
    Abstract: This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial resources to military spending. As a result, climate policy reduces geopolitical and security burdens on Western democracies, offering a potential "peace dividend" as a cobenefit. Exploiting the link between the European Union's oil consumption and the EU's costs of the Russian war in Ukraine as a case study, we highlight the relevance of this externality. We estimate that each euro spent on oil in the EU generates geopolitical costs of 0.37 [0.01 - 4.7] euros related to Russia's war on Ukraine. Based on our central estimate, a carbon price of 62 euros per ton of CO2 would be required to internalize these costs. Even under conservative assumptions, our analysis highlights that the geopolitical externality offers a compelling argument for strong unilateral efforts to reduce fossil fuel demand in the EU.
    Keywords: geopolitical externality, climate policy, co-benefit, EU climate policy, Russia's invasion ofUkraine
    JEL: F18 F51 F52 H23 H56
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:315470
  6. By: Diego Ambasz; Javier Sanchez-Reaza; Pluvia Zuniga
    Keywords: Science and Technology Development-Innovation Science and Technology Development-Technology Innovation Science and Technology Development-Research and Development
    Date: 2023–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39826
  7. By: Joan Costa-Font; Anna Nicińska; Melcior Rosello-Roig; Joan Costa-i-Font
    Abstract: Past trauma resulting from personal life shocks, especially during periods of particular volatility such as regime transition (or regime change), can give rise to significant long-lasting effects on people’s health and well-being. We study this question by drawing on longitudinal and retrospective data to examine the effect of past exposure to major individual-level shocks (specifically hunger, persecution, dispossession, and exceptional stress) on current measures of an individual’s health and mental well-being. We study the effect of the timing of the personal shocks, alongside the additional effect of ‘institutional uncertainty’ of regime change in post-communist European countries. Our findings are as follows: First, we document evidence of the detrimental effects of shocks on a series of relevant health and well-being outcomes. Second, we show evidence of more pronounced detrimental consequences of such personal shocks experienced by individuals living in formerly communist countries (which accrue to about 8% and 10% in the case of hunger and persecution, respectively) than in non-communist countries. The effects are robust and take place in addition to the direct effects of regime change and shocks.
    Keywords: transition shocks, Soviet communism, later life health, health care system.
    JEL: I18 H75 H79
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11763
  8. By: Husein Abdul-Hamid; Diego Ambasz
    Keywords: Education-Education Reform and Management Education-Economics of Education Social Protections and Labor-Skills Development and Labor Force Training Environment-Green Issues Science and Technology Development-Science Mathematics and Technology
    Date: 2023–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39823
  9. By: World Bank
    Date: 2023–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40011
  10. By: Karol Madoń
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of automation on workers' wages across 20 European countries between 2010–2018. Overall, it identifies a net positive effect of robot adoption on average wages at the sectoral level, especially pronounced among routine manual and nonroutine manual occupations. Importantly, these effects differ between countries- workers in Eastern European countries benefit twice as much from automation as their Western European counterparts. In Western European countries, higher average wages are associated with a decreasing share of routine workers. Results are robust to the exclusion of different capital measures, a battery of fixed effects, a change of instrument and an alternative measure of wages.
    Keywords: automation, job tasks, wages, technological change, Europe
    JEL: E24 J30 O33
    Date: 2025–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp062025
  11. By: Lubica Stiblarova (Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Kosice, Slovak Republic); Anna Tykhonenko (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, SKEMA Business School, France)
    Abstract: his paper explores the intricate relationship between human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 28 European countries from 2003 to 2022. To address this relationship's complex and often ambiguous nature, a Bayesian shrinkage estimator is utilized to capture significant heterogeneity across different regions. The results indicate that the discouraging role of human capital in FDI is most pronounced in the "Eastern bloc, " where cost-effectiveness serves as the primary driver of investment. In contrast, efficiency-seeking motives prevail in Western Europe, where higher levels of human capital contribute to increased FDI. Sectoral analysis further reveals that the critical transition for attracting FDI occurs not between the secondary and tertiary sectors, as traditionally believed, but between the tertiary and quaternary sectors. In these advanced sectors, quaternary FDI leverages innovation potential through high-skilled labor, underscoring the critical importance of human capital. These findings highlight the nuanced and region-specific dynamics of FDI, emphasizing the need for tailored policies to maximize the benefits of human capital in attracting foreign investment.
    Keywords: Human capital, foreign direct investment, regional heterogeneity, multi-speed Europe, Bayesian shrinkage estimator
    JEL: C11 F21 I25 O14
    Date: 2025–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2025-11
  12. By: Adrien Dozol; Diego Ambasz; Tigran Shmis
    Keywords: Education-Education Reform and Management Environment-Green Issues Health, Nutrition and Population-Environment and Health Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Policy and Management
    Date: 2023–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39825
  13. By: Mr. Serhan Cevik; Alice Fan; Sadhna Naik
    Abstract: Central banks conduct monetary policy to achieve price stability, but decisions also have effects on labor-market outcomes. In this paper, we identify exogenous monetary shocks with the ‘interest rate surprise’ approach based on high-frequency changes in forward-looking interest rates and use daily data on online job vacancy postings to investigate the impact of monetary policy on labor markets in three European countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the period 2018–2024. Our results indicate that monetary policy exerts significant and durable effects on labor-market conditions as measured by online job vacancy postings in our sample of countries. First, a contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy shock leads to a persistent decline (increase) in online job vacancy postings. Across all countries, the average effect amounts to about 2 percent in 15 days after a contractionary monetary policy shock (i.e., an unanticipated increase of 1 percentage point in short-term interest rates). Second, there is significant heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of how monetary policy affects the labor market across three countries in our sample, varying from 0.5 percent in Latvia to 2 percent in Estonia and 3.2 percent in Lithuania. Taken together, these results are both of direct concern for policymakers and important for the transmission of monetary policy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; labor markets; online job vacancy postings; local projections; Europe; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania
    Date: 2025–03–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/058
  14. By: Vojtech Misak (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of temperature on soccer team productivity using match-level data from ten countries across three continents. The results show that temperature affects multiple performance metrics, often in non-linear ways. Specifically, attacking efficiency is enhanced in warmer conditions, leading to increased goal productivity and improved shot conversion rates. Conversely, defensive performance appears to weaken in warmer conditions, with a decrease in defensive pressure and passing accuracy. Player aggression follows an inverted U-shaped pattern in relation to temperature. The effects of temperature vary across different leagues and climate regions. The relationship between temperature and outcome measures tends to be stronger in lower leagues, while the Champions League is the least influenced overall. Teams from colder regions experience a larger decline in passing volume when playing in high temperatures, with the effect being particularly pronounced in Brazil.
    Keywords: Football, Soccer, Temperature, Weather, Productivity
    JEL: K14 K42 K49
    Date: 2025–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_07
  15. By: Konstantins Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Styliani Christodoulopoulou (European Central Bank); Olegs Tkacevs (Latvijas Banka)
    Abstract: This study examines the adoption of digital technologies by Latvian firms, focusing on the factors influencing adoption decisions and the impact of these technologies on firm performance. Using firm-level responses to the digitalisation survey, the paper covers four technologies: broadband internet, webpages, web sales, and EDI sales. The results suggest that larger firms, exporters, and those employing ICT specialists along with a higher-skilled workforce, are more inlined to adopt digital technologies. The provision of relevant training programmes for both ICT and non-ICT staff is essential for fostering technology adoption, particularly for more complex systems like web sales. To assess the impact of digitalisation on firm performance, the study employs a difference- in-differences approach, finding that webpage adoption positively affects turnover and employment, particularly in the manufacturing sector. EDI sales also enhance firm performance, boosting turnover and employment. The study emphasises the need for complementary investments in workforce skills, ICT training, and organisational re-structuring to fully realise the benefits of digital transformation.
    Keywords: digital technologies, e-commerce, firm performance
    JEL: D22 O14 O33 L25 J23 J24 F14
    Date: 2025–04–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:dpaper:202501
  16. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development-Financial Regulation & Supervision
    Date: 2023–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39705
  17. By: Primov, Abdulla
    Abstract: In Uzbekistan, land is more appropriate for cultivating fruits and vegetables. Since independence, the government of Uzbekistan has implemented a number of agricultural policies such as making some crucial structural reforms at the farms, comprising different institutions and enhancing diversification of agricultural production in order to stabilize on agricultural sector of the country. Therefore, crop diversity has an important role in sustainable agriculture. The main objective of the study is to analyze the degree and extent of crop diversification among farmers. We calculated the diversification index based on the Simpson Diversity Index method. The study revealed the mean computed Simpson Index values indicate that diversity index was found 0.59, 0.45, 0.56 and 0.62 for Andijan, Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya and Tashkent regions, respectively. This implies that Tashkent region farmers shifted towards more diversification cropping patterns than other counterparts of the country. The overall result in the four states combined in this study reveals a mean Simpson Index within the sample of farmers was 0.56. This suggests that the farmers in the study areas were not too diversified in their cropping pattern. While cultivating several crop species also helps the farmers to manage both price and production risks which attains more food options for the household and income through marketing the produce from the surpluses.
    Keywords: Crop diversification, Simpson Diversification Index, Cropping patterns, Uzbekistan
    JEL: Q1 D13 D31 O18
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:313532
  18. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Water Resources-Water Economics Infrastructure Economics and Finance-Infrastructure Economics
    Date: 2023–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39518
  19. By: Primov, Abdulla; Rustamova, Iroda
    Abstract: The main objective of this study is to examine the status and level of crop diversification among farms in the country through an empirical analysis using panel data collected in 2009-2017. In doing so, we performed the Stata-16 software utilizing the Simpson Diversification Index model in determining the diversification index. According to the results, the highest diversification indicators were found for Samarkand, Fergana and Tashkent regions, respectively, and accounted for 0.74, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively. It can be seen that the existing farms in Tashkent region used more diversified crops than other regions of the country. The average diversification rate of these regions was 0.66. This means that farms in the study areas are not highly diversified. Increasing crop diversification will allow farms to manage different price and production risks, as well as to ensure food security for farmers and further increase their overall incomes.
    Keywords: Crop diversification, Simpson index, Cropping patterns, Empirical analysis, Panel data
    JEL: Q1 D31 O18
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:313531
  20. By: Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
    Abstract: The substantial increase in public sector wages in Mongolia introduced in the 2023 supplementary budget has raised concerns about its potential spillover effects on private sector wages and subsequent inflationary pressures. Furthermore, both public and private sector wages have grown on average faster than labor productivity in Mongolia during 2000-2023 with substantial implications for inflation. This paper aims to empirically investigate the relationship between public sector wages, private sector wages, and inflation in Mongolia, utilizing a quarterly dataset spanning from 2000Q4 to 2023Q4. Employing a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the dynamic interactions among these variables to uncover the causal relationships. The findings indicate that a shock to private sector wages exerts a stronger immediate impact on inflation, peaking within the first four quarters, while a shock to public sector wages manifests a delayed effect on inflation, peaking between the sixth and ninth quarters. Additionally, shocks to public sector wages have a small and short-lived effect on private sector wages, whereas shocks to private sector wages significantly influence public sector wages, suggesting that private sector has a more leading role in wage setting behavior. These results have important policy implications, highlighting the need for public wage policies that are closely aligned with productivity changes and can contribute to macroeconomic and price stability in Mongolia.
    Keywords: Public wages; private wages; inflation; Mongolia
    Date: 2025–03–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/053
  21. By: Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Qodirov, Sukhrob
    Abstract: Climate resilience, which confirms a household’s ability to withstand shocks, is an intrinsic element of adapting despite socioeconomic and environmental disturbances or shocks. Climate change and other socio-economic disturbances have given unprecedented “vertigo” to the food sector. In this context, households, as a decision-making unit, are expected to increase their resilience capacity to withstand shocks. Using the “COVID-19 High Frequency Survey 2020-2022” dataset for Georgia by the World Bank, the manuscript aims to measure household resilience capacity to climate change and analyse the effect of remittance on household resilience capacity. The measurement of resilience capacity or Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) is based on the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA II) methodology proposed by FAO. Accordingly, RCI is constructed through RIMA proposed pillars: Access to Basic Services (ABS), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SSN), Adaptive Capacity (AC), and Sensitivity (S). Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is applied to associate pillars with resilience. Using the SEM approach, the findings confirm that ABS, AST and AC pillars have a significant and positive association with RCI. The estimations confirm that remittance-receiving households are likely to experience higher levels of ABS, AC, and RCI. The findings are particularly important for enhancing the resilience thinking approach to formulating policy objectives and interventions that should inevitably improve or strengthen household resilience capacity.
    Keywords: Resilience capacity, climate change, remittance, propensity score matching
    JEL: D13 R20 Q54
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:313418
  22. By: Kryszak, Łukasz; Czyżewski, Bazyli; Sapa, Agnieszka; Lucasenco, Eugenia
    Abstract: The expansion of conservation tillage helps to improve soil health in countries affected by the soil erosion, such as the Republic of Moldova. The main objective of this paper was to investigate Moldovan farmers’ preferences for the hypothetical policy scheme designed to promote conservation tillage in the framework of a discrete choice experiment. The heterogeneity of farmers' preferences was explained using the latent concept of a sense of intergenerational commitments (IC) via a hybrid choice model. We found that farmers are reluctant to adopt more advanced forms of conservation tillage (such as zero tillage) and prefer to choose minimum tillage. They positively value financial support (both direct payments and investment subsidies), while the availability of advisory support is not the key factor. We also found that farmers with greater sense of IC have less negative attitudes toward zero tillage and put less positive value on monetary aspects. It seems that these farmers are more driven by moral obligations to society and are less dependent on external support. Policy makers should continue to develop financial incentives to promote conservation agriculture practices but they should also be aware of the important role of farmers and agricultural policy from a social justice perspective.
    Keywords: conservation agriculture; hybrid choice model; no-till; min-till; Moldova
    JEL: Q18 Q24 Q57
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124050

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