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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Ermisch, John |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic. |
| Date: | 2023–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nej84_v1 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Countries across Eastern Europe and Central Asia are in their third decade of independence. What impact does this have on the skills premium and does accession to the European Union have an impact on the returns to education The returns to education in 28 transition and 20 non-transition countries in Europe and Central Asia are analyzed using panel data analysis and difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of transition and EU accession. It is found that the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy increases the returns to schooling in post-socialist countries positively and significantly, especially through the EU accession channel. |
| Date: | 2023–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10496 |
| By: | Dalvit, Nicolo; Iootty De Paiva Dias, Mariana; Melecky, Martin; Srinivasan, Nithya |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1, 200 to 1, 800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion. |
| Date: | 2023–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10557 |
| By: | Gomez Ortiz, Maria Del Mar; Zarate Vasquez, Roman David; Taglioni, Daria |
| Abstract: | In the Western Balkans, trade and transport policy reforms that reduce waiting time at the border by just three hours are equivalent to removing a value-based tariff of 2 percent. Reform gains are maximized when they are coordinated across economies and implemented jointly: cross-border coordination in the implementation of the package of national single window and other trade facilitation reforms would generate 8 percent higher gains than if each economy were to carry out the reforms autonomously. The impacts of trade reforms and improvements in road infrastructure would be further amplified if Western Balkan economies belonged to the European Union, which would result in an additional 6 percent boost to welfare. Moreover, the accession of Western Balkan economies to the European Union would have positive spillover welfare effects for countries such as Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, and negligible effects for other EU members. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10491 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Fang, Ming |
| Abstract: | Data from 2, 251 small and medium-size farms for 2021 and 2022 show that area reductions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remained limited. However, worsening terms of trade reduced farm profitability, implying that 46 percent of farms had a negative cash flow and 54 percent (67 percent in the 50-120 hectare group) were credit constrained in 2022, implying that longer term effects may be more adverse. Total factor productivity varies significantly across size groups but is not significantly different between formal and informal farms in the same size group. This suggests that limited transferability of land use rights that are disproportionately used by smaller farms may be one reason for low productivity. Improving transferability of land, digital access to markets, and mortgage lending could thus trigger investment and growth in higher value products by small and medium-size farms to solidify Ukraine’s comparative advantage in agriculture and improve rural living conditions in the context of reconstruction. |
| Date: | 2023–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10464 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew |
| Abstract: | Almost throughout Ukraine’s independent history, agricultural land sales were prohibited. Measures to allow them and make land governance more transparent in 2020/21 were expected to improve equity, investment, credit access, and decentralization. This paper draws on administrative data and satellite imagery to describe land market performance before and after the Russian invasion, assess changes in land use for transacted parcels, and analyze determinants of land prices. Agricultural land market volume soon exceeded that of residential land and continued at a reduced level and with prices some 15–20 percent lower even after the invasion, with little sign of speculative land acquisition. Mortgage market activity and credit access remained below expectations. The paper discusses reasons and options for addressing them in a way that also factors in the needs of post-war reconstruction. |
| Date: | 2023–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10385 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | The recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 crisis, remind us of the importance of efficient transportation and logistics. Notably, however, even before the crises, some regions were already experiencing a gradual increase in freight costs, with more and more empty trucks observed. The paper recasts light on the question of how road freight costs are determined using large, unique shipping data from Eastern European and Central Asian countries. It finds that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight or load factor and distance. The elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high at about 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms. Thus, to contain trucking costs, it is important to maximize the load factor through freight consolidation at origins and destinations. The elasticity with respect to distance is relatively modest at 0.04 to 0.16 in absolute terms but still statistically significant, indicating that distance may not necessarily be a constraint on trade and regional integration. Trucking costs also decrease with driving speed, a proxy for efficiency of movements or road conditions. The elasticity is significant for food products (−0.03) and other consumer goods (−0.11). Finally, the paper finds that border crossing adds 3–4 percent to freight costs. |
| Date: | 2023–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10533 |
| By: | Rodriguez Takeuchi, Laura Kiku; Trzcinski, Kajetan Wladyslaw; Wai-Poi, Matthew Grant |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributive and poverty reducing effects of Vietnam’s fiscal system in 2018. The paper looks at the incidence across the distribution and the effect of (direct and indirect) taxes, subsidies, and social spending (in cash and in-kind) on inequality and poverty in Vietnam using the Commitment to Equity methodology. The overall pattern of taxes and transfers in Vietnam is moderately progressive, but most households pay more in taxes and co-payments than what they receive in cash benefits, and the fiscal system results in a small increase in poverty. The progressivity of the fiscal system and its inequality-reduction impact mostly comes from in-kind health and education spending. This reduction in inequality is about average for lower-middle-income countries, but Vietnam could do more to increase the progressivity of its fiscal system. |
| Date: | 2023–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10538 |
| By: | Fazekas, Mihaly; Poltoratskaia, Viktoriia; Tóth, Bence |
| Abstract: | This paper sets out to measure and analyze corruption risks, patterns of favoritism, and state capture in public procurement in Bulgaria. It draws on two main types of data: large-scale administrative data on public procurement and the list of politically exposed persons. The analysis rests on calculating individual corruption risk indicators (or red flags), such as single bidding in competitive markets, and creating a composite Corruption Risk Index based on these indicators. It maps the distribution of these red flags over time, across different regions and markets. The analysis finds that Bulgaria shows high corruption risk among other examined countries in the European Union, with weak institutions contributing to slow gross domestic product per capita convergence to Western European countries. The results point out that corruption risks have deteriorated over time. Combining suppliers’ political connections information with public procurement corruption risk data shows that connections are associated with higher risks, in particular connections to local government members and state-owned enterprises. The large-scale analysis of buyer-supplier contracting networks points at state capture patterns where groups of buyers and suppliers repeatedly connect in high corruption risk procurement contracts. Such groups have gained more power and control over a larger share of contracts since 2016. Finally, policy recommendations are provided in three areas: enhancing data scope and quality, introducing a data-driven approach to corruption risk assessment, and improving public procurement policy and practices to reduce noncompetitive tenders. |
| Date: | 2023–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10444 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Transport connectivity is an important determinant of agglomeration economies and urbanization. However, measuring its impacts is a complex task when causality is considered. An important empirical challenge comes from potential endogeneity of infrastructure placement. To deal with the endogeneity problem, first, the paper constructs detailed georeferenced connectivity measurements based on micro shipping data collected over 10 years. Then, the system generalized method of moments regression is applied. Using unique data from the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, the paper estimates the impact of transport connectivity on agglomeration economies. It finds that agglomeration economies are significant and persistent in the region. Thus, the existing firm clusters are likely to continue growing. However, a constraint is also found. Large cities exhibit congestion diseconomies. Finally, the paper shows that the improvement of transport connectivity, especially local market accessibility, has a significant effect on agglomeration. By contrast, no clear evidence to support the impact of improved regional connectivity on agglomeration is observed yet. To take full advantage of agglomeration economies at the regional level, further efforts may be needed, for instance, toward increasing efficiency in transportation and logistics, improving the freight load, and/or reducing the time and costs of border crossing, which add to overall transport costs and times. |
| Date: | 2023–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10534 |
| By: | Jessen, Jonas; Jessen, Robin; Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Góra, Marek; Kluve, Jochen |
| Abstract: | We quantify micro and macro effects of changes in the potential benefit duration (PBD) in unemployment insurance. In Poland, the PBD is 12 months for the newly unemployed if the previous year's county unemployment rate is more than 150% of the national average, and 6 months otherwise. We exploit this cut-off using regression discontinuity estimates on registry data containing the universe of unemployed from 2005 to 2019. For those whose PBD is directly affected by the policy rule, benefit recipients younger than 50, a PBD increase from 6 to 12 months leads to 13 percent higher unemployment (the micro effect). The aggregate effect on unemployment (the macro effect, which includes equilibrium effects) is entirely explained by this increase. We find no evidence of spill-overs on two distinct groups of unemployed whose PBD is unchanged and no effect on measures of labour market tightness. We cannot reject that the micro effect equals the macro effect. A decomposition analysis reveals that 12 months after an increase in the PBD, changes in exits from and entries into unemployment each contribute to about half of the overall increase in unemployment. |
| Abstract: | Wir quantifizieren die Mikro- und Makroeffekte von Änderungen der maximalen Bezugsdauer der Arbeitslosenversicherung. In Polen beträgt die PBD für neu Arbeitslose 12 Monate, wenn die Arbeitslosenquote des Vorjahresbezirks mehr als 150 % des nationalen Durchschnitts beträgt, und ansonsten 6 Monate. Wir nutzen dies Variation unter Verwendung von Regressionsdiskontinuitätsschätzungen für Registerdaten, die die Gesamtheit der Arbeitslosen von 2005 bis 2019 enthalten. Für diejenigen, deren maximale Bezugsdauer direkt von der politischen Regelung betroffen ist, d. h. für Leistungsempfänger unter 50 Jahren, führt eine Erhöhung der maximalen Bezugsdauer von 6 auf 12 Monate zu einer um 13 % höheren Arbeitslosigkeit (der Mikroeffekt). Der Gesamteffekt auf die Arbeitslosigkeit (der Makroeffekt, der Gleichgewichtseffekte beinhaltet) wird vollständig durch diese Erhöhung erklärt. Wir finden keine Anzeichen für Spillover-Effekte auf zwei verschiedene Gruppen von Arbeitslosen, deren maximale Bezugsdauer unverändert bleibt, und keine Auswirkungen auf Messgrößen für die Anspannung des Arbeitsmarktes. Wir können nicht zurückweisen, dass der Mikroeffekt dem Makroeffekt entspricht. Eine Dekompositionsanalyse zeigt, dass 12 Monate nach einer Erhöhung der maximalen Bezugsdauer die Veränderungen bei den Abgängen aus der und den Zugängen in die Arbeitslosigkeit jeweils etwa zur Hälfte zum Gesamtanstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit beitragen. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment benefits, extended benefits, spell duration, separation rate, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | H55 J20 J65 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:311189 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan; David-Barrett, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | The chapter explores the domestic legal design of Mutual Legal Assistance (MLA) procedures, analysing individual forms of MLA such as extradition of suspects or convicts, takeover or surrender of prosecution, and execution of foreign judgments. The analysis compares legislation from three countries in Southeast Europe: Serbia, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It examines whether two key components of legal design, namely (i) the discretion granted to institutions within the criminal justice system and political establishment and (ii) the presence of checks and balances systems within MLA procedures, have a positive or negative impact on MLA policy in practice. The analysis reveals that, although the three countries share many similarities in their legal arrangements pertaining to MLA procedures, there are some variations in specific forms of MLA, in terms of the discretion granted to domestic actors and the presence of checks and balances within the procedure. The findings show that significant discretion given to specific actors within the MLA policy can pave the way for harmful practices such as arbitrariness, uneven application of the law, and potential political abuse. The study also highlights the value of incorporating built-in checks and balances within the MLA procedure to ensure accountability and mutual control mechanisms, confirming that, where such mechanisms are not present, appropriate accountability and control safeguards are missing, enabling potential abuse of power or neglect in handling the MLA procedure. At the same time, it emerges that these checks and balances, whether they include internal review mechanisms, joint decision-making models, and/or approval powers ('de facto vetoing'), should not be excessive or burdensome to avoid obstructing the MLA processes. |
| Date: | 2023–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5zfmg_v1 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This study examines how fiscal policy affects the economy in order to assess the degree of uncertainty around public finances. The Financial Approach focuses on the collection and utilization of private property by public administration. The title of this paper indicates that it deals with dynamic tax policy concerns. These include the relationship between long-term expectations and short-term outcomes, the impact of fiscal policy on capital formation, economic development, and intergenerational equity, and the extent to which current policies impede the introduction of potential future policies. Dynamic analysis has recently surpassed static analysis in a number of economic fields. It is appropriate to focus on the monetary strategy in particular because it has been modified and adjusted over time in the Republic of Moldova. These adjustments are frequently made beforehand, while they occasionally take into account the present financial situation when it wasn't mentioned before. It should not be shocking that financial variables are always shifting. The direction of the economy is affected by the current policy changes, which ineluctably call for other policy adjustments in the future. The expectation of these future adjustments, however, also has an impact on the current outcomes since it ensures that the consequences of past monetary actions remain, even in the absence of the entire future financial arrangement. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, budget fiscal deficit, primary account deficit, value-added tax, taxation. |
| JEL: | E3 E37 H3 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123504 |
| By: | Bach, Maximilian; Klein, Thilo; McNamara, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Though the use of tracking policies to stratify students is commonplace, evi- dence concerning the effects of ability-based tracking on student performance is mixed. Using rich data from the Hungarian secondary school centralized assignment mechanism and a quasi-experimental framework, we find that at- tending the highest track noticeably improves standardized test scores and university aspirations two years post-match. Heterogeneity analysis finds this effect is independent of socioeconomic status, prior achievement, and parents' educational attainment, and we find only limited evidence of peer spillover effects in terms of academic ability. Given socioeconomic disparities in track placement, tracking may reinforce educational inequality. |
| Keywords: | education, school choice, tracking, centralized school admissions, student achievement, inequality of opportunity |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 E47 C26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312194 |
| By: | Johannes Stangl; Andr\'as Borsos; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | While many national and international climate policies clearly outline decarbonization targets and the timelines for achieving them, there is a notable lack of effort to objectively monitor progress. A significant share of the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy will be borne by industry and the economy, requiring both the decarbonization of the electricity grid and the electrification of industrial processes. But how quickly are firms adopting low-carbon electricity? Using a unique dataset on Hungary\textquotesingle{}s national supply chain network, we analyze the energy portfolios of 27, 067 firms, covering more than 80% of gas, 70% of electricity, and 50% of oil consumption between 2020 and 2023. This enables us to objectively measure the trends of decarbonization efforts at the firm level. Although more than half of firms have increased their share of low-carbon electricity, many have reduced it. Extrapolating the observed trends, we find a transition of only 20% of total energy consumption to low-carbon electricity by 2050. The current speed of transition in the economy is not sufficient to reach climate neutrality by 2050. If firms would adopt the same efforts as the decarbonization frontrunners in their industry, a low-carbon energy share of up to 86% could be reached, putting climate targets within reach. As a key barrier, we identify a \textquotesingle{}lock-in\textquotesingle{} effect, where firms with a high ratio of fossil fuel costs per revenue are less likely to transition. Accelerating the energy transition will require targeted policies that address these barriers, ensuring that firms can align their decarbonization strategies with best practices. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.01572 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan; Dragicevic, Ognjen |
| Abstract: | This article examines how the regulatory state in Serbia, a transitional country transition on the EU's semi-periphery, has evolved and whether it has solidified over the past two decades. Despite the proclaimed goal to develop a democracy based on market principles and sound regulatory principles, Serbia's regulatory state appears to remain unconsolidated. The research reveals deviations from the key principles of the regulatory state, such as the government's non-interference in markets and commitment to Better Regulation guidelines. During the transition period from 2001 to 2023, Serbia's regulatory approach has blended various elements, including features of the developmental state. To grasp the trajectory of the regulatory state's lack of consolidation, decay, reversal, and replacement, we need to consider a consolidation perspective in addition to the prevalent ‘modelling perspective’. The latter mainly distinguishes between the ‘Regulatory State of the South’ and the ‘Regulatory State of the Global North’. The observed lack of consolidation in Serbia's case study calls for a rethinking of theories on internationalisation and trends in global governance's transnationalisation. It implies the possibility of the rise of varied regulatory models, even in countries close to the Global North and within the EU's neighbourhood, diverging from the traditional regulatory state paradigm. This study adds to the conversation on regulatory state frameworks and sheds light on the intricate paths and potential futures of regulatory states in countries undergoing transition. |
| Date: | 2023–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7g9zx_v1 |
| By: | Ospino Hernandez, Carlos Gustavo; Rigolini, Iamele P.; Coll-Black, Sarah; Oviedo Silva, Ana Maria |
| Abstract: | The literature on shock-responsive social protection focuses on operational features that improve the speed and reach of the response, but little is known about the optimal design of emergency social protection responses in terms of which programs to use, information about the people affected, and the extent of their losses. This paper studies optimal social protection responses to shocks, using microsimulations of different social assistance responses in Albania, Moldova, and North Macedonia. The paper shows that optimal design depends not only on the magnitude of the shock, but also on how the shock affects welfare rankings and on the parameters of the existing social assistance system, including the generosity of the schemes and how well they cover the poor. For given budgets, a universal transfer remains a suboptimal response. However, the extent to which existing programs should be expanded, as designed, to additional beneficiaries depends on the type of shock. When a shock tends to affect households homogeneously, increasing generosity and expanding the existing targeted social assistance program using established welfare metrics to assess eligibility is an effective response. When shocks affect households heterogeneously and bring some of them into extreme poverty, then pre-shock welfare indicators carry little information and policy makers should provide support through a new program or modified eligibility criteria, according to information on who suffered the shock. This analysis points to the importance of planning in advance for future crises and, within this, considering the optimal design of emergency social protection responses. |
| Date: | 2023–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10461 |
| By: | Seitz, William Hutchins; Kudo, Yuya; Azevedo, Joao Pedro Wagner De |
| Abstract: | Access to reliable electricity is a Sustainable Development Goal, and key for both economic growth and individual wellbeing. Yet, in the absence of sophisticated monitoring systems, policy makers in developing countries commonly rely on surveys to measure electricity reliability and prioritize investments. The accuracy of such survey-based methods is unclear. This study built a low-cost national electricity outage monitoring network, using off-the-shelf components in Tajikistan – a country with severe electricity service constraints. The system was introduced alongside a monthly household survey called Listening to Tajikistan, which allowed benchmarking the survey summary statistics against unbiased measures. The results show that although the two measures were well correlated, the survey data suffered from significant and systematic bias. Survey respondents (i) systematically underreported the incidence and severity of electricity outages on average, but (ii) systematically overreport ed the incidence of outages during a period of abnormally widespread service disruption of long duration. These findings suggest that bias in survey-based measures is sensitive to the salience of outages to the respondent, and that, where feasible, automated electricity monitoring can provide more accurate quality measurement. For survey settings, the results also suggest that estimates are more accurate over short (daily) reference periods. |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10423 |
| By: | Seitz, William Hutchins; Yamada, Eiji; Shimizutani, Satoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of proposing a monetary incentive for vaccination intentions, with a survey-based randomized controlled experiment conducted separately in three countries, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Respondents from nationally representative surveys were randomly assigned to a control group (for which no incentive was proposed) or to one of several treatment groups with varying levels of hypothetical compensation. Offering incentives markedly reduced overall vaccination intentions —all three counties. Country-level results ranged from no meaningful effect on vaccination intentions (Tajikistan) to a decline of up to 22 percent (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). In follow-up questions, most respondents said they disapprove of offering financial incentives for vaccination, and especially in contexts with strong negative effects in the experiment. The results contrast with the well-established efficacy of monetary incentives to influence vaccination behavior in other settings, but they are consistent with findings from the behavioral literature in which incentive payments signal inferiority or disutility. The findings suggest that policy makers and practitioners should use caution when considering extrinsic incentives for vaccination and other health interventions where effects have not been tested. |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10349 |
| By: | Eldar Knar |
| Abstract: | In the context of scientific policy and science management, this study examines the system of nonuniform wage distribution for researchers. A nonlinear mathematical model of optimal remuneration for scientific workers has been developed, considering key and additive aspects of scientific activity: basic qualifications, research productivity, collaborative projects, skill enhancement, distinctions, and international collaborations. Unlike traditional linear schemes, the proposed approach is based on exponential and logarithmic dependencies, allowing for the consideration of saturation effects and preventing artificial wage growth due to mechanical increases in scientific productivity indicators. The study includes detailed calculations of optimal, minimum, and maximum wages, demonstrating a fair distribution of remuneration on the basis of researcher productivity. A linear increase in publication activity or grant funding should not lead to uncontrolled salary growth, thus avoiding distortions in the motivational system. The results of this study can be used to reform and modernize the wage system for researchers in Kazakhstan and other countries, as well as to optimize grant-based science funding mechanisms. The proposed methodology fosters scientific motivation, long-term productivity, and the internationalization of research while also promoting self-actualization and ultimately forming an adequate and authentic reward system for the research community. Specifically, in resource-limited scientific systems, science policy should focus on the qualitative development of individual researchers rather than quantitative expansion (e.g., increasing the number of scientists). This can be achieved through the productive progress of their motivation and self-actualization. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.17271 |
| By: | Garriga, Pablo; De Gouvea Scot De Arruda, Thiago |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how firms respond t o differential, size-based tax rates using administrative tax data in Lithuania. Exploiting a notch in the tax schedule faced by corporations, it documents strong behavioral responses to tax incentives— revenue elasticity is estimated at 0.35 and cost elasticity at −1.3, implying a large total profit elasticity of 7.4. It then leverages the panel structure of the data to provide insights on the dynamic effects of these tax incentives. Firms located close to but below the notch report systematically lower revenue growth in the short term, but the effects dissipate over time. |
| Date: | 2023–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10500 |
| By: | Jose Garcia-Louzao; Linas Tarasonis |
| Abstract: | Using Social Security records between 2000 and 2020, we provide a comprehensive analysis of labor earnings inequality and its dynamics over the course of Lithuania’s economic development. Since 2000, there has been a substantial decline in earnings inequality, largely driven by the rapid growth of earnings at the bottom of the distribution, while earnings volatility has hardly changed. Importantly, we estimate a relatively high sensitivity of earnings growth to changes in real GDP, which declines with the level of permanent income. Additionally, we find that the idiosyncratic earnings risk of individuals at the bottom of the permanent income distribution is less sensitive to aggregate growth than that of individuals in the top half. Taken together, our findings underscore that analyzing earnings risk is critical to properly understanding the dynamics of inequality and designing effective policies to address it. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, income risk, income mobility, administrative data |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11680 |
| By: | Bíró, Anikó; Hornok, Cecília; Krekó, Judit; Prinz, Daniel; Scharle, Ágota |
| Abstract: | Disability benefits provide social insurance against the risk of losing working capacity, as well as an important source of income for individuals with disabilities. They are also costly and tend to reduce labor supply. Although spending can be contained by careful targeting, correcting past flaws in eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. This paper studies a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries. Leveraging age and health cutoffs in the reassessment, the paper estimates employment responses to loss or reduction of benefits. The findings show that among those who left disability insurance due to the reform, 58 percent were employed in the primary labor market, 6 percent participated in public works, and 36 percent were out of work without benefits in the post-reform period. The consequences of leaving disability insurance differed sharply by pre-reform employment status. Among the beneficiaries who were employed in the pre-reform year, 81 percent worked, while only 33 percent of those without pre-reform employment did. The gains of the reform in activating beneficiaries were small and strongly driven by pre-reform employment status. This points to the importance of combining financial incentives with broader labor market programs that increase employability. |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10575 |