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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Bogdan Marza; Renate-Doina Bratu; Razvan Serbu; Sebastian Emanuel Stan; Camelia Oprean-Stan |
| Abstract: | In today's world, marked by social distancing and lockdowns, the development of digital financial services is becoming increasingly important, but there is little empirical work documenting the most important factors that contribute to the process of financial and digital inclusion. Because the speed with which states adapt to digital financial services is critical, we must ask how prepared states are for this transition and how far they have progressed in terms of financial and digital inclusion. In this context, the goal of this article is, on the one hand, to propose a financial responsibility process framework capable of raising awareness of the most important harmonized key levels of financial and digital inclusion process that, when properly managed, can lead to achieving an optimal level of financial responsibility, and, on the other hand, to assess the financial and digital inclusion process of two different age groups of individuals who are active in the financial environment (15-34 and 35-59 age groups). The Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP and Fuzzy AHP approaches are proposed as a framework for assessing the mechanism of financial and digital inclusion in five East Central European countries. The findings reflect differences between the analyzed countries in terms of the key levels of financial and digital inclusion (where digital and financial education are the most important levels), with Croatia, Czech Republic, and Poland being the most integrated and Romania being the least. According to the findings, as a country or region's level of financial and digital inclusion increases, so does its level of financial responsibility. This research can be a useful tool in raising awareness about the importance of directed behavior for financial responsibility, particularly for policymakers. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.10001 |
| By: | Islomjon Inkhomiddinov (The Central Bank of Uzbekistan) |
| Abstract: | The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model (1), a modified HLW-type model, and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), semi-structural framework. The semi-structural HLW-type and modified HLW-type models estimate the real interest rate using core inflation, while the QPM relies on headline inflation. The results indicate that the natural rate was relatively stable across the models. The semi-structural HLW-type and modified HLW-type models produced average natural rate estimates of 4.5 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, while the QPM estimated a slightly lower average rate of 3.4 percent. On average, the natural rate across all models was approximately 4.0 percent. In contrast, the real interest rate exhibited significant variability, reflecting periods of accommodative monetary policy before the adoption of the inflation targeting regime and restrictive policies during the IT regime’s active implementation. These findings emphasize the critical role of accurately estimating the natural rate to guide monetary policy and ensure macroeconomic stability effectively. (1) Holston-Laubach-Williams (2016) |
| Keywords: | Natural level of Real Interest Rate; Core Inflation; Kalman Filter; Bayesian Estimation |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E52 E59 |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp02-2025 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, faces significant economic challenges due to fluctuations in global energy markets, declining oil revenues, rising imports, and increasing fiscal instability. This paper examines the potential impact of the Trump administration’s energy policies on global oil prices and their broader implications for Azerbaijan’s economy. While deregulation and expanded fossil fuel production in the U.S. could drive oil prices down, geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may offset these effects. Additionally, U.S. alignment with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ members, combined with capital discipline in the energy sector, may constrain the anticipated increase in production. Given these dynamics, Azerbaijan must urgently implement policy reforms and economic diversification strategies to mitigate potential risks and ensure long-term financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Trump Energy Policy, Oil Prices, Azerbaijan Economy, National Energy Emergency Act, U.S. Oil Production, Global Energy Market, Fossil Fuels, Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gas Revenues, Economic Diversification |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309950 |
| By: | Grajzl, Peter; Ćorić, Bruno; Srhoj, Stjepan |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that when business regulation is excessive, deregulation should enhance efficiency. The liberalization of services markets in Croatia demonstrates that this is not necessarily the case, particularly when features of the reform process allow undue influence by those who stand to lose from the removal of regulatory barriers. To assess the effects of the Croatian reform, we determine the yearly volume of deregulation measures applicable to each affected sector and construct a sector-level panel dataset encompassing a wide range of outcomes. Exploiting within-sector, over-time variation in the volume of deregulation measures, we find that deregulation, on average, increased labor productivity but had no effect on entry, employment, or profit margins. While both new entrants and incumbents shared the labor-productivity gains, incumbents benefited more and also experienced an increase in profit margins. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the reform was more effective in sectors with initial conditions indicative of weaker incumbent power. Our findings underscore the relevance of public-choice perspectives not only in understanding regulation, as emphasized by prior literature, but also in the context of deregulation. |
| Keywords: | deregulation, liberalization, services markets, heterogeneity, special interests |
| JEL: | L51 L80 D02 K20 P16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1554r |
| By: | Christian Morabito,; Miguel Niño-Zarazúa |
| Abstract: | Persistent economic and social inequalities constrain the inclusive development of nations. The internationally agreed Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10) and its targets, aim to address these constraints through the promotion of equalising policies. This paper tests the validity of the Inequality Marker and Distributional Impact Assessment (DIA) tools that have been developed to assess the contribution of development projects to inequality reduction using as case studies four AFD and European Commission funded projects in Benin, Djibouti-Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam. The DIA analyses have been carried out in two cases: in Benin (ex-post) and Uganda (ex-ante). Overall, the study shows how the Inequality Marker and DIA methodology can provide relevant information on the potential contribution of development projects to inequality reduction. The study identifies critical issues for the implementation of the DIA analysis that reflect both organisational constraints in donor agencies internal procedures, and external contextual factors. The study also provides a set of policy recommendations to mitigate these threats. |
| Keywords: | Bénin, Djibouti, Éthiopie, Ouganda, Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2025–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en17833 |
| By: | Zong, Xiaoxue; Huang, Kaixing; Ji, Xi |
| Abstract: | Land use policy is crucial for food security and ecological protection. This study explores the impact of the world’s largest Grain for Green Program, which subsidizes more than 100 million farmers to convert sloped cropland to forests and grasslands, on crop productivity in China. By combining detailed county-level crop production data with remote sensing data, our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that while the program significantly reduced total cropland area, it led to an increase in total crop yield. The unexpected yield impact can be explained by the fact that the program significantly increased labor input and multiple cropping in the remaining cropland. More importantly, we find that the program substantially reduced the damage of drought and extreme heat on crop yield. Our findings suggest the possibility of adopting land use policy to protect the ecology without compromising food security in a developing country. |
| Keywords: | land use, food security, ecological protection, climate shocks, Grain for Green |
| JEL: | J43 Q15 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123478 |
| By: | Mostafa R. Sarkandiz |
| Abstract: | The present study attempts to investigate the demographic dividend phenomenon in China. For this goal, a socio-economic approach has been used to analyze the topic from 1995 to 2019. In contrast to common belief, the outcomes revealed that China is still benefiting from a demographic dividend. However, due to the accelerated population aging trend and the increasing share of government expenditure on the public pension system, the window opportunity has yet to close. Furthermore, concerning the absolute value of estimated coefficients, the employment rate of young people in the age bundle of [15, 24] has the highest impact on decreasing government expenditure. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.12144 |
| By: | Hajdu, Tamás |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of temperature on emergency department (ED) visits using administrative data covering 50% of the Hungarian population and 3.52 million ED visits from 2009 to 2017. The results show that ED visit rates increase when average temperatures exceed 10°C, primarily driven by mild cases that do not result in hospitalization. Higher humidity amplifies the heat effect, which is also stronger following consecutive hot days. The findings further indicate that the impacts of climate change - both present and future - are substantial. Between 2009 and 2017, 0.66% of the ED visits were attributed to temperature changes relative to the period 1950-1989. Furthermore, by the 2050s, compared to the first 15 years of the 21st century, the annual ED visit rate is projected to rise by 1.24%-1.70%, depending on the climate scenario. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects of high temperatures and the future impacts of climate change are disproportionately greater in lower-income districts, areas with lower general practitioner density, and among younger adults. |
| Keywords: | temperature, climate change, morbidity, emergency department visits, heterogeneous impacts |
| JEL: | I10 I14 I18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1560 |