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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Eck, Bjarn; Michel, Elie |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point for European security. European countries have provided significant military and financial aid to Ukraine so far, but public support for such measures is a critical factor to sustain this assistance. In this article, we focus on two key aspects of public opinion on the war in Ukraine: whether Europeans want to increase, decrease, or maintain current support levels, and what factors shape these attitudes. Using survey data from six countries – Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland – fielded in June 2024, we find little evidence of war fatigue among the European public two years after the outbreak of the war. Most respondents express satisfaction with current aid levels, and a narrow majority in most countries even supports increasing aid, while around 10 percent firmly opposes any support. Importantly, differences in desired change seem unrelated to whether countries have been relatively large or small aid donors so far. Furthermore, support for aiding Ukraine is shaped by economic evaluations and national identity. Citizens who negatively assess the domestic economy are less supportive of aid, whereas personal financial concerns do not have such an impact. In addition, citizens who identify along national versus European lines are also more likely to oppose aiding Ukraine. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the challenges they pose for sustaining public support crucial to European security. |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:typvk |
| By: | Łukasz Postek (Narodowy Bank Polski; University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Małgorzata Walerych (Narodowy Bank Polski; Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest. |
| Keywords: | immigration, Bayesian VAR, labour market |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373 |
| By: | Benjamin Hilgenstock; Elina Ribakova; Anna Vlasyuk; Guntram Wolff |
| Abstract: | Abstract Russian imports of battlefield goods subject to export controls have surged since mid‐2022 and reached levels close to those prior to Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia thus continues to be able to acquire foreign components critical for its military industry. These imports largely occur via mainland China, Hong Kong, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, while other countries including Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic have also seen massive increases in tech imports that likely end up in Russia. The enforcement of export controls faces multifaceted challenges centred around complex supply chains, lack of transparency and opaque financial structures, issues familiar from anti‐money laundering (AML) and countering financing of terrorism (CFT) frameworks. We propose using a similar framework in export control enforcement: First , financial institutions need to play a role in monitoring trade in export‐controlled goods and blocking illicit transactions. Second , non‐financial companies could learn from banks' efforts in the AML/CFT sphere to implement proper due‐diligence procedures and to ensure export controls compliance. Public‐sector investigations and appropriate fines are critical to increase the incentives for firms to act. Technology sanctions will remain part of the economic statecraft toolbox. The Russia case will test their effectiveness and credibility. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/386935 |
| By: | Lin, Faqin; Li, Xuecao; Jia, Ningyuan; Feng, Fan; Huang, Hai; Huang, Jianxi; Fan, Shenggen; Ciais, Philippe; Song, Xiao Peng |
| Abstract: | Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Considering the role of Russia and Ukraine in agricultural input sectors including oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, especially Russia, the trade blockade caused by the conflict will give rise to price increase by 10%–30% and welfare decline by 15–25% for most affected countries. The conflict would put as many as 1.7 billion people in hunger and 276 million people in severe food insecurity. Food shortages, energy shortages and inflation have spread to many countries like dominoes which have fallen into trouble one after another with social unrest day after day. Our analysis also shows that countries including the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, France, Argentina, and Germany would increase their wheat production and exports for the reconstruction of the global wheat supply pattern. The modeled results indicate that the conflict-induced global wheat crisis and food insecurity can be notably alleviated if these countries increase their production by 2%–3% in 2022–2023 and unnecessary trade restrictions are exempted. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium trade model; global food security; quantification; Russia-Ukraine conflict; wheat crisis |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117700 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cresti; Dario Mazzilli; Aurelio Patelli; Angelica Sbardella; Andrea Tacchella |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the structural vulnerabilities and competitive dynamics of the EU27 automotive sector, with a focus on the complexity and the fragmentation of production processes across global value chains. Employing a mixed-methods approach, our analysis integrates input-output tables to quantify the sector's reliance on non-EU economic branches, alongside an economic complexity framework to assess the underlying productive capabilities of European countries in automotive-related industries. The findings indicate an increasing dependency on extra-EU suppliers, particularly China, for critical components such as lithium-ion batteries, which heightens supply chain risks. Currently, Eastern European countries-most notably Poland, Czechia, and Hungary-have enhanced their competitiveness in the production of automotive components, surpassing traditional leaders such as Germany. The paper advances the literature by providing a novel, granular list of 6-digit products within the automotive supply chain and offers new insights into the challenges posed by the ongoing electric mobility transition in the European Union, particularly in relation to electric accumulators. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.01781 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Najat Bazah |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between public sector efficiency and government spending, to assess public resource management across the 27 European Union countries. Specifically, we analyze the growth of public expenditure in relation to outcomes across various public sector performance (PSP) indicators. We compute government spending efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to subsequently assess the relationship between efficiency and the growth rate of public expenditure. Our findings suggest that higher efficiency can be achieved without proportionally increasing public spending, both in total expenditure and in specific areas such as social protection, economic affairs, education, healthcare, and public services. Indeed, with overall output efficiency scores between 0.77 and 0.87, with the same level of inputs, output could increase around 13%-23%. Additionally, public spending tends to rise during recessions, while it decreases with higher levels of human capital and redistribution indicators. Finally, more efficient countries tend to coalesce around Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Sweden. |
| Keywords: | public sector performance indicators, efficiency, public expenditure, functions of the government, data envelopment analysis |
| JEL: | C33 C61 E62 H11 H50 O47 P43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11487 |
| By: | Pylak, Korneliusz; Mickiewicz, Tomasz; Kitsos, Tasos |
| Abstract: | Our study explores the factors influencing the creation and closure of firms in urban micro-spaces, highlighting the relationship between Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS) and non-KIBS sectors. Employing 2007-2019 firm-level data from Warsaw, the capital of Poland, we uncover overlooked micro-geographical and sectoral patterns. We reveal spatial and sectoral interdependencies, highlighting the cross-sectoral effects of density and age of incumbent firms on new firm creation and closure. Our findings highlight the potential of policies supporting KIBS to generate positive multiplier effects, cultivating entrepreneurial ecosystems while accounting for micro-geographical contexts. |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:emv45 |
| By: | Wojcik, Adrian Dominik; Glińska-Neweś, Aldona; Jurgiel, Dominika; Milfont, Taciano L (University of Waikato); Brzustewicz, Paweł; Glinka, Beta; Łuka, Alicja; Szostek, Dawid |
| Abstract: | The advancement of research on employee pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs) is hindered by inconsistent terminology, fragmented behavior taxonomies, and incoherent measurement methods. Our research focuses on the concept of employee green behaviors (EGB) and seeks to empirically validate a set of EGB items derived from the Green Five Taxonomy. Through three surveys of full-time office workers in Poland (Ntotal = 2, 985), the study identifies six distinct categories of EGB: reducing, recycling, reusing, prioritizing environmental concerns, counterproductive green behavior, and other behaviors beyond the 3R (reduce, reuse, recycle) framework. These findings refine the initial taxonomy and offer a consolidated measurement tool. |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wknhs |
| By: | Srdelic, Leonarda; Barisic, Radoslav |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the existence of sector-specific Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) in Croatia from 1995 to 2021. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Models (ECM), the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed across key climate-policy relevant sectors (CPRS). A stable long-term relationship with significant short-term adjustments was found in the energy-intensive sector, which is regulated under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Long-term cointegration, but with non-significant short-term adjustments, was observed in the buildings, transportation, and utility/electricity sectors. Among sectors with a significant long-term relationship, an inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)—where emissions initially rise and then, after reaching a certain GDP threshold, decline—was identified in the buildings and energy-intensive sectors. In contrast, a U-shaped relationship was found in the utility/electricity sector, where emissions initially decrease but start to increase again as GDP grows. The transportation sector shows a positive linear relationship with GDP, with emissions rising consistently with economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted interventions like carbon pricing. Conversely, the fossil fuel sector shows no significant GDP-emissions relationship, pointing to external factors like geopolitical risks as primary influences. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), climate- policy relevant sectors (CPRS), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Croatia. |
| JEL: | O11 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122841 |
| By: | Marianna Endresz (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Peter Gabriel (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of acquisitions on various firm-level performance measures of Hungarian firms. Using difference-in-differences estimation with matching, we show that the performance of the acquirer improves significantly following an acquisition. By controlling for the – typically weaker – efficiency of the target, we also estimate the overall efficiency gain. Our results indicate that acquisitions are powerful tools to improve efficiency in the Hungarian economy. The estimated impacts are heterogeneous. Efficiency gains are higher if the acquirer is smaller and less efficient prior to the acquisition, highlighting that improving scale efficiency is an important motive for acquisitions. Furthermore, if the acquirer and target companies had business links beforehand, the productivity gain is twice as large. Acquisitions made during recessions are also different in some ways. Firms make fewer acquisitions, although the number of potential target companies increases. Because acquirers become more selective, the efficiency gains remain sizeable even in the unfavourable business environment. |
| Keywords: | mergers, acquisitions, efficiency, productivity, matching |
| JEL: | C22 D22 D24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2024/3 |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Fujita, Masahisa |
| Abstract: | Knowledge creation either in isolation or joint with another person, using either face to face or internet contact and incorporating internet search ability is analyzed. Both a conceptual phase and a technical phase of research are analyzed, allowing workers to choose endogenously their mode of communication. In addition to formal knowledge, tacit knowledge plays an essential role in the knowledge production process. Lead time for face to face communication plays a key role in the optimal choice of communication mode. The sink point is inefficient. Our framework is applied to pandemic restrictions on face to face communication. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge creation; Tacit knowledge; Multimodal communication; Pandemic restrictions |
| JEL: | D83 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122940 |