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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
| Abstract: | Habits in leisure ala Kydland and Prescott (1982) are introduced into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2022). The quantitative importance of the presence of habits in leisure is investigated for cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria, and the ability of this extension to address the wage-hours puzzle in particular. The quantitative effect of habits in leisure is found to be small, and often working in the wrong direction. Hours and wages vary much less than in data, wages are more pro-cyclical, and hours are counter-cyclical. Habits in leisure mechanism is thus not a good candidate to solve the hours-wages puzzle in business cycle literature. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, habits in leisure, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2025-01 |
| By: | Tetiana Bogdan |
| Abstract: | This policy report makes an up-to-date assessment of Ukraine’s fiscal situation and locates the analysis in the longer-term context of the needs to keep the state viable in the current war situation, but also to deal with the challenges of reconstruction after the war and on its path towards EU accession. It studies in detail the structure and evolution of Ukraine’s budget revenue in a time of war and reveals social and economic needs of a war-torn country in the areas of social protection, housing recovery, health care and education reforms, transport infrastructure, energy sector, industry and agriculture. It outlines the necessity to increase public revenue and considers different tax policy initiatives for funding reconstruction program and restoring fiscal sustainability. The study elaborates a methodology for assessment and medium-term projections of consolidated budget expenditure, which are required for meeting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction needs. It also provides budget deficit projections and gross financing needs assessments over the period 2024-2028. It shows the substantial foreign financing gaps for 2025-2026 and following years and analyses in details the external and, especially, EU financial support pledged to Ukraine. Finally, it discusses the staged EU accession model in the context of addressing reconstruction challenges and Ukraine’s progressing on the path to EU membership. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine’s economic reconstruction, Ukraine’s fiscal situation, Ukraine’s external financing needs, EU staged accession model |
| JEL: | H3 H5 H6 O52 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:88 |
| By: | Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ |
| Abstract: | Some of the greatest impacts of climate change worldwide arise from increasing extreme weather events, including hot temperature extremes. As global warming is projected to further intensify in future decades, Vietnam will face increasing extreme heat events. In order to contribute to identify potential knowledge gaps on this issue and better inform adaptation policies, we performed a literature review of 61 documents published between 2005 and 2024 and dealing with extreme tempe-ratures and heat stress in Vietnam. We found that actually the two main topics of these documents are the urban heat island effect and the negative health impacts of high temperatures, but without taking climate change into account. Climatological studies focusing on hot extremes in Vietnam appear rather rare. The few studies identified all report increasing trends over the past decades, and the rare studies providing climate projections for Vietnam specifically or for vietnamese cities all point out to further increases. Hence, dangerous hot weather could occur up to several months per year. Overall, our review high-lights the need for further research on this issue in Vietnam in order to better anticipate potential heat-related damages and build relevant adaptation policies. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en17701 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Jinyan Li (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | The escalating trade war between China and the United States, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China's and the US's imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a non-stationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China's exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war's goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. Furthermore, our method, compared to other approaches, demonstrates superior accuracy and reliability in illustrating the effects of the trade war. |
| Keywords: | Causal inference; Counterfactual estimation; Trade balance; Trade friction; Trade war effects. |
| JEL: | C10 F51 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202319 |
| By: | Meiyi Zhuang; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | Despite relaxed fertility restrictions, China’s birth rate continues to decline. The Universal Two-Child Policy, which encourages considering a second child, often leads to a bargaining process between spouses with differing preferences. Additionally, the skewed sex ratio has increased Chinese women’s bargaining power, emphasizing the need to analyze fertility decisions through marital bargaining. This paper investigates second-child fertility decisions using 2018 China Family Panel Studies data and Ordinary Least Squares regression. We examine assortative matching based on fertility preferences, employing the 2020 provincial-level sex ratio for individuals aged 20–39 as a proxy for women’s bargaining power in the marriage market. Our findings show that achieving consensus on having a second child requires cooperation between spouses, especially when their fertility preferences differ. We also find that marriage matching is not random, with individuals more likely to partner with those sharing the same second-child preference. Further, women with greater bargaining power positively influence their husbands’ desired family size, a correlation not observed in males. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2024-002 |
| By: | Shuang Tian; Miao Wang; Lin Wu; Ajay Kumar (EM - EMLyon Business School); Kim Hua Tan |
| Abstract: | The semiconductor sector plays a crucial role in shaping national strategies and driving economic growth; however, it faces significant challenges prompting a shift towards sustainable development. This study aims to investigate whether sustainability initiatives of the focal firm can diffuse throughout the semiconductor supply chain, leveraging stakeholder salience theory and archival data from listed firms in China. Methodologically, we conduct a regression analysis using STATA 17.0 to examine the impact of the focal firm's sustainability disclosure on supply chain sustainability. Findings indicate a positive correlation between the focal company's sustainability disclosure and enhanced sustainability performance of its key suppliers and customers. This relationship is strengthened when the focal firm demonstrates significant market power, sustainability legitimacy, and urgency in addressing sustainability concerns. Our study contributes to the sustainable supply chain management literature by elucidating sustainability diffusion from a stakeholder salience perspective and offers practical insights for semiconductor managers and policymakers striving to foster sustainable practices within the sector. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductor industry, Sustainability, Stakeholder salience, ESG |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04850422 |
| By: | Lorenzo Rotunno; Sanchari Roy; Anri Sakakibara; Pierre-Louis Vezina |
| Abstract: | We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we first show that US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in the two years after the hikes. We then show using firm level data that this expansion in export opportunities led to job creation. Around 5% extra jobs were created in firms hit with average tariffs above 15%. Results point towards this effect being driven mostly by female employment. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam; US-China trade tensions; trade policy; exports; employment |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/263 |
| By: | Jaan Masso; Amaresh K Tiwari |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new method to estimate a production function and the total factor productivity (TFP)impact of persistence in exporting. Certain “proxymethods” for estimating the production function invert the demand for flexible inputs with respect to TFP to obtain a proxy for the unobserved TFP. When markets are imperfectly competitive, the demand for inputs depends on unobserved demand shifters (UDS), which violates the “scalar unobservability” required for inversion. We write the production function as a partially linear model, where the nonparametric part, the proxy for productivity, depends on the UDS. Identification rests on postulating (i) a law of motion for the UDS, which evolves endogenously, and(ii) distributional restrictions to control for the correlation between the UDS and the variables of interest. Output elasticities and productivity impact of endogenous treatments are identified. Using Estonian firm-level data, we find that revenue per employee and the amount, in physical units, of goods exported per employee generally increase with the number of years of exporting activities (NYrEx). However, we find limited evidence of the TFP impact of exporting, with only the most persistent of exporters experiencing such gains. In comparison, the estimated productivity impact of NYrEx from analternative estimator, which assumes perfect competition, closely matches the way revenue per employee varies with the NYrEx. Finally, exporters charge lower markups than non-exporters, where the difference between the exporters’and the non-exporters’ markups increases with NYrEx. |
| Keywords: | Production Function Estimation, Imperfect Competition, Variable Markups, TFP, Unobserved Demand Shifters, Learning by Exporting |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:150 |