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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Magdalena Frei; Artem Kochnev; Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Renate Prasch; Hana Ruskova; Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Banushi Xhesika |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the historical dataset with economic time series of socialist Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia (CSSR), the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Soviet Union (USSR) and Yugoslavia from 1944 to 1993 as well as a new dataset on Albania created as part of this project. The paper explains the dataset’s structure and gaps as well as the harmonisation efforts and accounting methodologies adopted in the member countries of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or COMECON) during that period. The paper serves as a companion for the users of the wiiw COMECON Dataset. wiiw COMECON Dataset https //comecon.wiiw.ac.at/ |
| Keywords: | CMEA, COMECON, socialist countries, Albania, Bulgaria, CSSR, GDR, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, population, net material product, GDP, investment, labour market, prices, wages, production, consumption per capita, budget, trade by partners, trade by commodities and regions, conversion factors, external finance, economic history, comparative economic systems, historical dataset of economic time series. |
| JEL: | B22 B24 B27 B40 B41 N14 N34 N44 N54 N64 N74 P20 P30 P51 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:spaper:statr:13 |
| By: | Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev; Manuel Neubauer; Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Special Issue on Formerly Socialist Economies Analysing socialist economies the first two decades of wiiw publications by Manuel Neubauer As part of its COMECON project, wiiw has digitised hundreds of its publications – more than 45, 000 pages in all. As these are now publicly accessible on https //comecon.wiiw.ac.at/, this article serves as a short introduction to wiiw’s early publications, in particular those examining the socialist economies up until 1991. Two of our oldest and most important publications have been providing wiiw’s members with up-to-date research ever since those early days Research Reports and Monthly Reports. Both may serve today as a fascinating survey of developing Western perceptions of the socialist system. A brand new wiiw dataset on the former socialist countries by Artem Kochnev and Monika Schwarzhappel wiiw has compiled an innovative dataset on the nine former socialist countries Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The dataset includes a total of 8, 347 economic and social indicators, organised into 11 chapters and spanning the period from 1944 to 1993. Thanks to the significant effort put into data harmonisation, it contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of twentieth-century economic history. Why did socialism collapse? Insights from our new COMECON Dataset by Branimir Jovanović In this article, we explore why the socialist systems in Eastern Europe collapsed around 1990, drawing on our newly digitised wiiw COMECON Dataset. We revisit traditional explanations framed as the ‘jockey’ (policy decisions), the ‘horse’ (inherent systemic flaws) and the ‘racetrack’ (external environment), concluding that the collapse resulted from the interplay of all three factors. If any one of these factors had been different, socialism might well have survived. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | early years of wiiw, wiiw publication series, data digitisation, harmonisation and validation, external debt, convertible exports, investments, grain production |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-12 |
| By: | Mihnea Constantinescu (National Bank of Ukraine; University of Amsterdam); Kalle Kappner (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Nikodem Szumilo (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Warcast Index, an approach for estimating regional economic activity during periods of extreme uncertainty using publicly available data. We show that combining widely used correlates of economic activity – nightlight intensity, Google Trends, and Twitter activity – can improve the tracking of economic performance and even allow the approximation of monthly economic activity after extreme structural breaks, like war or occupation. We apply this approach to Ukraine during the 2022 war. Our findings show that combining multiple data sources not only improves tracking accuracy compared to single-correlate models, but also provides timely, transparent and flexible data for policy-making in situations where conventional economic data is unavailable or unreliable. We also contribute to the literature on wartime economics by providing a novel analysis of the economic effects of armed conflict with high frequency (monthly) and spatially granular (regional) data. |
| Keywords: | estimating GDP, nwcasting GDP, wartime economics, nightlights, Google trends, Twitter data |
| JEL: | B41 C82 E01 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2024 |
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Why did the socialist system that dominated Eastern European countries for much of the 20th century collapse around 1990? Drawing on the newly released wiiw COMECON Dataset and reports that the wiiw was publishing at that time, we explore whether the collapse was due to unfixable systemic flaws of the socialist economies, an unfavourable global environment since the mid-1970s, or policy mistakes made by socialist leaders. Our analysis concludes that all three factors contributed to the collapse. Although the international context – with rising oil prices and interest rates – and the limited openness and competitiveness of socialist economies presented significant challenges, these economies might have survived without the sharp rise in borrowing during the 1970s, the Soviet Union’s squandering of the oil windfall between 1973 and 1985, the failure of Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s, and exchange rate mismanagement in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Yugoslavia. A particularly grave policy mistake was the Soviet Union’s 1975 decision to replace the fixed five-year oil pricing system with one based on annual adjustments using a five-year moving average tied to world market prices, which exposed the COMECON countries to the full force of the 1970s energy crisis, thereby triggering – or at least catalysing – the system’s collapse. Finally, we also find that extreme weather events played a significant role by causing crop failures, which led to a loss of hard currency export revenues and subsequent current account issues. wiiw COMECON Dataset https //comecon.wiiw.ac.at/ |
| Keywords: | socialism, communism, COMECON, Eastern Bloc, collapse, systemic deficiencies, international environment, policy mistakes, climate crisis, energy crisis |
| JEL: | N14 P20 P24 P27 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:477 |
| By: | Rasmus Bøgh Holmen; Timo Kuosmanen; Jaan Masso; Per Botolf Maurseth; Kenneth Løvold Rødseth |
| Abstract: | This paper ties broadband development to regional economic growth and focuses on the optimal timing of investments. A Directional Distance Function framework is proposed for characterising the relationship between broadband investment and economic development, and a two-stage estimation procedure combining Convex Nonparametric Least Squares with Linear Programming is developed for estimating optimal investment paths. The model framework is applied to a novel dataset comprising 21 regions in the Baltic countries. The results indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product could be increased by up to 10 per cent by adopting optimal regional investment paths. We find intercountry differences, where Latvian regions exhibit more inefficient investment strategies compared to regions subordinate to their neighbouring countries. There are also signs of over-investment in broadband in some regions. |
| Keywords: | Regional economic growth; Broadband; Directional Distance Function; Convex Nonparametric Least Squares; Baltic countries; productivity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:149 |
| By: | Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster; Tim Pionteck; Dragan Tevdovski |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a detailed analysis of fiscal frameworks across the six Western Balkan economies utilizing a newly compiled dataset based on the European Commission’s Fiscal Governance Database. The analysis reveals that although all six Western Balkan countries have implemented some form of fiscal rule, these rules are generally less robust than those in EU member states in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Independent fiscal councils are operational only in Serbia and North Macedonia, as well as in one entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while other Western Balkan economies are still in the process of planning or implementing similar bodies. Across the region, medium-term budgetary frameworks are largely indicative in nature. Statistical and econometric analysis indicates that fiscal rules and councils in the Western Balkans may have had positive effects on reducing deficits and maintaining sustainable public debt dynamics, but only sporadically and to a limited degree. The political-economy challenges facing economies in the region may be inhibiting the adoption of fiscal rules and impairing the operation of fiscal councils. An evaluation of recent changes to EU fiscal rules and their implications for the Western Balkans highlights the need to improve the technical and analytical capabilities of fiscal institutions, as the new rules could negatively affect public investment in the region unless spending can be prioritized effectively and supported by improvements in domestic revenue mobilization. |
| Keywords: | fiscal governance, fiscal rules, fiscal councils, MTBF, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | E62 H3 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:478 |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Public finance studies are an essential part of any country’s economic analysis. Such studies play a crucial role in understanding the efficient allocation of resources, redistribution of income and macroeconomic stabilization. However, in the case of the Azerbaijani economy, there is little academic work on this topic. Considering this fact, this paper aims to provide the results of the main research project that aimed to analyze the state of academic publications on public finance management in Azerbaijan. Employing thematic analysis (TA) as the main research method, this paper reports the results of the initial analysis of the 30 structured expert interviews, who are mainly economists, government officials and private sector representatives. The first phase of the main research had a variety of directions, but this paper focuses on the secondary TA, which includes only policy suggestions to provide a more focused and detailed perspective. The findings show that the Azerbaijani government needs to continue working to increase the effectiveness of the state budget by reducing dependence on oil and gas revenues, implementing tax and structural reforms, being rational and strict in spending, adopting international standards, and focusing on more effective tax collection. In addition, the experts were not satisfied with the current state of academic studies on public finance in Azerbaijan and suggested being open and innovative in this direction in order to be better informed and prepared for the challenges of future economic cycles. The findings and interpretations of this paper will be of interest to government authorities, public institutions, academic circles and private parties, as public finance plays a crucial role in economic development and social welfare. There is a need to popularize the study of public finance using the Azerbaijani economy as an example, which requires a higher level of research interest and academic freedom. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijani economy, expert interviews, fiscal policy, policy measures, public policy, public finance |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:307486 |
| By: | Drygalla, Andrej; Heinisch, Katja; Schult, Christoph |
| Abstract: | In a multi-sector and multi-region framework, this paper employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze climate-resilient economic development (DGE-CRED) in Vietnam. We calibrate sector and region-specific damage functions and quantify climate variable impacts on productivity and capital formation for various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 119, 245, and 585). Our results based on simulations and cost-benefit analyses reveal a projected 5 percent reduction in annual GDP by 2050 in the SSP 245 scenario. Adaptation measures for the dyke system are crucial to mitigate the consumption gap, but they alone cannot sufficiently address it. Climate-induced damages to agriculture and labor productivity are the primary drivers of consumption reductions, underscoring the need for focused adaptation measures in the agricultural sector and strategies to reduce labor intensity as vital policy considerations for Vietnam's response to climate change. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, climate change, cost-benefit analysis, dynamic general equilibrium models |
| JEL: | E17 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhtrp:306350 |
| By: | Peter Dixon; Michael Jerie; Dean Mustakinov; Maureen T. Rimmer; Nicholas Sheard; Florian Schiffmann; Glyn Wittwer |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a destructive events tool (DET) for anticipating the national and regional economic effects of a destructive event occurring at any latitude/longitude in a country. The event is characterized by areas of complete destruction and evacuation. The event could be a natural disaster, major industrial accident, or terrorist attack. The key ingredient for a DET is data showing population and employment by industry in small rectangular areas (SRAs). In the Poland DET, motivating the paper, there are 600, 000 SRAs, each 0.5 sq km. This spatial resolution greatly improves the accuracy of the estimation of the economic impacts of events where physical impacts vary substantially across small areas. The second ingredient is an economic model with sufficient regional/industrial definition to translate shocks at an SRA level into implications at the sub-national and national levels. This requirement is met by a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The final ingredient is an approximation for the model's reduced form. This is necessary so that the DET can be applied by organizations, without in-house CGE expertise, that need quick turnaround in a secure environment. We implement an approximation method for CGE reduced forms based on Neural Networks. |
| Keywords: | Destructive events tool, Small rectangular areas, Multi-regional computable general equilibrium models, Neural network approximations to reduced forms |
| JEL: | C81 C68 C45 H84 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-349 |