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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Renáta K?e?ková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Daniela ?álková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Radka Procházková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Sergyi Yekimov (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague) |
| Abstract: | Tourism demand plays a significant role in a country's economy and influences macroeconomic stability. Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is fundamental, especially in the context of the fast-changing global economic conditions. This study focuses on the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries and examines how selected macroeconomic variables - namely nominal exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP per capita and employee compensation - affect tourism demand as indicated by the number of guests and overnight stays in hotels and other accommodation facilities. The main aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between these macroeconomic variables and the demand for inbound tourism based on data from Germany, Austria, Poland and Slovakia and the Czech Republic over the period 2000-2022. A sub-objective is to use the results of this analysis to forecast the future development of tourism demand in the Czech Republic up to 2028. The data set was obtained from multiple sources, including the Czech Statistical Office, Eurostat, and the World Bank, ensuring reliability. The analysis was carried out using the Gauss-Markov least squares method, which allowed estimating the relationships between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Time series analysis, including exponential smoothing methods, was used to model and predict future trends in tourism demand. The findings show that nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and GDP per capita have a significant impact on tourism demand, with differences depending on the country of origin. For example, an increase in the inflation rate in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic tends to reduce the number of tourists from these countries staying in Czech hotels, while a similar increase in Germany and Austria has the opposite effect and increases the number of tourists from these countries. These results highlighted the complexity of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand and shown that country-specific economic policies can significantly affect tourist´s flow. The study also provides a forecast of tourism recovery in the Czech Republic, predicting a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of tourist arrivals and overnight stays by the end of 2024, with continued growth through 2028. These findings are valuable for policy makers and industry stakeholders planning development of the tourism sector in the Czech Republic. |
| Keywords: | Tourism Demand, Macroeconomic Variables, Czech Republic, Forecasting, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate |
| JEL: | C51 C53 L83 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516470 |
| By: | Magdalena Knapi?ska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study is to analyze the flows of immigrants and emigrants in Poland. The paper starts with a literature review of economic theories of migration and demographic trends. In the last years, Poland experienced a large change migratory pattern and geographic labour mobility. While Poland was initially a source country in international migration, it is becoming increasingly a target country for migration flows. This development was accelerated by the war in Ukraine. Based on the geographical proximity and a long tradition of intense of short-term migration from Ukraine to Poland, nearly a half million of refugees from Ukraine moved to Poland. Moreover, the scope of migration changed from the short-term to the long-term migration. Although, this development caused some short-term structural problems in various fields including education and social system, the Polish economy was able to absorb the war refugee flows better than expected. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects and Forecasts, Labor and Demographic Economics, Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers |
| JEL: | J11 J00 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516367 |
| By: | Bochun Zhu (University of Economics, Prague); Bo?ena Kade?ábková (University of Economics, Prague) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with financial crisis and bubbles on financial markets. Authors first compare theoretical approaches to the crisis, then identify common characteristics of past financial crisis and the recent crises, then analyze price bubbles as a possible source of the crisis, ways of their estimation and possible responses of economic policies. The analytical part is focused on the case of the Czech Republic, as the paper finds some specific features in the bubble performance in the Czech Republic, as the Czech economy was characterized by the low cost of labour and very low price of properties, a heritage of the transformation era. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises, Speculative bubbles, Specifics features in the Czech economy |
| JEL: | E32 G01 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7109710 |
| By: | Peter Tóth (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava); Paulína Borovská (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava); Richard Kali? (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of gender pay gaps in Czechia and Slovakia using microdata from five waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey conducted between 2002 and 2018. We estimate pay gaps for subsamples categorized by age, occupational groups, and employer sector classification. Our findings indicate that gender pay gaps are broadly similar in both countries, likely due to their shared cultural and institutional heritage. Moreover, pay gaps are gradually decreasing over the studied period in both countries. The most pronounced wage differentials are observed among individuals aged 30 to 49 years, a period often associated with significant child-rearing responsibilities for women. The largest pay gaps are found in medium-skilled blue-collar occupations. Sectorally, the highest pay gaps, often exceeding 20%, are observed in mining, industry, information and communication, and financial services, whereas the lowest gaps, falling below 10%, are found in education, arts, entertainment, and recreation. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, Economic inequality, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Labour market, Wage trends |
| JEL: | J16 J31 O50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516464 |
| By: | Daria Suprunenko |
| Abstract: | While significant attention has been dedicated to sanctions episodes among major economies which usually rely on a diverse set of trade partners, little is known about the impact of sanctions imposed by senders on economies highly dependent on them. Using Ukrainian export data for 2009–2019 at product level, I study the effects of trade restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine since 2016 accounting for the impact of Russian occupation and destruction of productive capacities. I find no evidence for evasion of Russian trade policy measures via export to other members of the Eurasian Economic Union or product misclassification, instead trade flows were redirected to new destinations. Industries with higher exposure to Russian market experienced significant reductions in employment, number of enterprises and turnover when targeted by embargo. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, sanctions, trade war |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0124 |
| By: | Tomas Sestorad (Institute of Economic Studies of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University & The Czech National Bank, Monetary Department, Prague, Czech Republic); Natalie Dvorakova (Institute of Economic Studies of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University; Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of the post-pandemic surge in inflation in four small open economies: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. For this purpose, a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model with sign-zero restrictions and block exogeneity is employed. The results show that both foreign demand and foreign supply shocks have contributed significantly to inflation in the post-2020 period across countries, alongside notable contributions from domestic factors explaining differences among economies. Specifically, supply-side shocks are identified as the primary domestic factor across all countries, whereas domestic demand shocks were much less influential. Exchange rate shocks were pronounced in Hungary only, while monetary policy shocks have had a minimal impact on inflation since 2022 in all the countries considered. Additionally, we provide decompositions of core inflation, highlighting the predominance of domestic factors. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR, extraordinary events, inflation, sign-zero restrictions, small open economies |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_36 |
| By: | Peter Tóth (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava); Samuel Holinga (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava); Richard Kali? (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the empirical distribution of individual inflation rates derived from household-specific consumption baskets and investigates the relationship between these rates and the socio-economic characteristics of Slovak households. Utilizing household budget survey data and a detailed breakdown of HICP inflation indices from the peak of the recent inflationary shock in January 2022, we calculated household-specific consumption basket weights and individual inflation rates. Due to diverse consumption patterns within the sample, our findings indicate that multi-person households with children and retired households experience the highest levels of inflation. In contrast, wealthier households are significantly less exposed to inflation, owing to a smaller portion of their budget allocated to food and energy. The empirical distribution revealed a range of individual inflation rates, with variations of up to 7.8 percentage points below and 7 percentage points above the official HICP inflation rate. These findings are relevant for designing targeted social policies aimed at reducing poverty and income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Household expenditures, Consumption baskets, Slovakia |
| JEL: | E31 D12 R20 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516466 |
| By: | Dobrinka Stoyanova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Blaga Madzhurova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); StefanBlaga Raychev (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates Bulgaria's economic convergence with the EU27, focusing on unemployment rates and GDP per capita from 2012 to 2022. Employing Beta, Gamma, Sigma, and Delta convergence measures, the research assesses the extent of Bulgaria's alignment with the economic performance of its EU counterparts. Additionally, the study critically examines the impact of Bulgaria's green transition?measured through recycling rates and renewable energy usage?on these convergence processes. The findings reveal a complex picture: while Bulgaria demonstrates strong Gamma and Delta convergence, suggesting improvements in its relative economic standing and a reduction in absolute disparities with the EU27, the absence of Beta and Sigma convergence indicates that overall economic growth and variability reduction remain insufficient for full integration. Furthermore, the analysis shows that although green transition efforts have positively influenced certain convergence aspects, they have not significantly contributed to broader economic alignment with the EU27. The study concludes that while Bulgaria is making notable progress in some convergence metrics, achieving comprehensive economic integration with the EU27 will require more robust and diversified policy interventions. The findings underscore the necessity for Bulgaria to enhance its environmental strategies with broader economic policies to effectively close the remaining gaps with its EU counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Economic Convergence, Bulgaria, EU27, Unemployment Rates, GDP per Capita, Beta Convergence, Gamma Convergence, Sigma Convergence, Delta Convergence, Green Transition, Recycling Rates, Renewable Energy, Economic Integration |
| JEL: | O47 Q56 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516476 |
| By: | Blaga Madzhurova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Dobrinka Stoyanova (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Stefan Raychev (Department of Economic Science, University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between environmental health impacts, particularly premature deaths due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure, and labour market outcomes across European Union (EU) member states from 2012 to 2021, with a special focus on Bulgaria. Utilizing a mixed-method approach that combines graphical analysis and PanelOLS regression modelling, the research examines how air pollution influences long-term unemployment and employment rates within the EU. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between PM2.5-related premature deaths and employment rates, suggesting that poor air quality contributes to lower labour market performance. Bulgaria exhibits a notable intersection of high long-term unemployment and environmental health challenges, highlighting the compounded effects of economic and environmental factors on labour market outcomes. This study underscores the importance of integrating environmental considerations into economic and labour market policies, especially for countries like Bulgaria that face significant challenges in both areas. By addressing these dual challenges, Bulgaria and other EU member states can enhance public health, improve labour market outcomes, and support a more sustainable and resilient economic future. The research contributes to the discourse on sustainable development, emphasizing the need for policies that simultaneously promote environmental health and economic productivity within the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, Labour market, Unemployment, Growth, Environmental health, PM2.5 Exposure, Air Pollution, Long-term Unemployment |
| JEL: | Q53 J64 I15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516475 |
| By: | Panon, Ludovic; Lebastard, Laura; Mancini, Michele; Borin, Alessandro; Essers, Dennis; Linarello, Andrea; Caka, Peonare; Cariola, Gianmarco; Gentili, Elena; Padellini, Tullia; Requena, Francisco; Timini, Jacopo |
| Abstract: | We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) —that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition —might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, France, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, our framework allows us to assess how much geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies differently. Our baseline calibration suggests that a 50% reduction in imports of FCIs from China and other countries with similar geopolitical orientations would result in sizable losses of value added with significant heterogeneity across firms, sectors, regions and countries, driven by the heterogeneous exposure of firms. Our findings show that the short-term costs of supply disruptions of FCIs can be substantial, especially if firms cannot easily switch away from these inputs. JEL Classification: F10, F14, F50, F60 |
| Keywords: | geoeconomic fragmentation, global sourcing, global value chains, imported inputs, international trade |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242992 |
| By: | Mikulić, Josip; Vitezić, Vanja; Srhoj, Stjepan; Kuliš, Zvonimir |
| Abstract: | Existing literature has largely overlooked the relationship between excessive tourism growth and international emigration. This study addresses this gap by analyzing Croatia, a country that experienced a significant population decline-losing 10% of its inhabitants between the 2011 and 2021 censuses-amid rapid and highly seasonal tourism growth. Coastal Croatia, in the later stage of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC), contrasts with Continental Croatia, in its early stage. We first establish a positive association between rising housing prices and emigration across both regions. More critically, we demonstrate that tourism activity correlates with increased emigration in areas experiencing excessive tourism (late TALC stage), while it is negatively associated with emigration in regions with lower tourism levels (early TALC stage). Our findings shed light on the overlooked adverse effects of tourism growth in the later stages of the TALC, emphasizing the need for nuanced approaches to tourism development and public policy. |
| Keywords: | overtourism, housing prices, emigration, brain drain |
| JEL: | O15 R21 R23 L83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1501 |
| By: | AMORES Antonio F (European Commission - JRC); BALABAN Georgiana; DE POLI Silvia (European Commission - JRC); GAVRIL Ioana; LEVENTI Chrysa (European Commission - JRC); NAE Tamara; RICCI Mattia (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | In response to the energy crisis, which led to high inflation, Romania, like other EU Member States, introduced a series of price-related and income-related measures to cushion the negative impact on households’ welfare. Using EUROMOD and its Indirect Tax Tool extension, we assess the impact of these measures on welfare across the income distribution, while distinguishing between automatic stabilisers and discretionary measures. We find that these measures did not succeed in diminishing entirely the negative effect of the inflationary shock on the lowest-income population, given that, on the one hand, the shock was higher for low-income deciles, and, on the other hand, the policies applied were not sufficiently targeted. Against this background, the use of targeted measures is warranted in order to improve the welfare effect of such measures on lower-income households and diminish income inequalities resulting from the energy crisis. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202306 |
| By: | Miroslav Pánik; Andrej Adamušin |
| Abstract: | The current turbulent development in the real estate market, not only in Slovakia but throughout Europe, is caused by several crises that have a global impact and partially resemble the situation in the market 15 years ago. One factor that negatively affects the real estate market in Slovakia is the lack of residential real estate. In the long term, the demand for housing significantly exceeds the supply of apartments.The article analyzes the prices of real estate intended for housing in Slovakia. It defines economic, demographic and social factors that have a significant impact on the development of real estate prices. The methodology of statistical data collection differs considerably in the developed countries of the EU. Národná banka Slovenska has been publishing quarterly data on real estate prices since 2005. Development modeling is possible, for example, using correlation and regression analysis, which is well known. In the presented article, the forecast of housing prices will be realized with the help of artificial intelligence - neural networks. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting; Neural Networks; residential real estate prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-091 |
| By: | Nigar Karimova |
| Abstract: | The research investigates how the application of a machine-learning random forest model improves the accuracy and precision of a Delphi model. The context of the research is Azerbaijani SMEs and the data for the study has been obtained from a financial institution which had gathered it from the enterprises (as there is no public data on local SMEs, it was not practical to verify the data independently). The research used accuracy, precision, recall and F-1 scores for both models to compare them and run the algorithms in Python. The findings showed that accuracy, precision, recall and F- 1 all improve considerably (from 0.69 to 0.83, from 0.65 to 0.81, from 0.56 to 0.77 and from 0.58 to 0.79, respectively). The implications are that by applying AI models in credit risk modeling, financial institutions can improve the accuracy of identifying potential defaulters which would reduce their credit risk. In addition, an unfair rejection of credit access for SMEs would also go down having a significant contribution to an economic growth in the economy. Finally, such ethical issues as transparency of algorithms and biases in historical data should be taken on board while making decisions based on AI algorithms in order to reduce mechanical dependence on algorithms that cannot be justified in practice. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.05330 |