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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Danile Kolar (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic has experienced a remarkable decline in the unemployment rate but not in relative poverty. I address this and other facts by analysing the evolution of absolute and relative poverty over the 2004-2021 period. I first document a remarkable decline in absolute poverty in poorer Czech regions, indicating that the growth experience of the Czech Republic was shared. Nonetheless, the low absolute poverty levels of Western Europe are yet to be reached. I then explain the paradox of stagnating relative poverty, i.e., the at-risk-of-poverty rate, and find that the drop in unemployment was offset by increased old-age poverty. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that older retirees living alone are particularly vulnerable. However, the overwhelming majority of the retired poor live in their own housing, and treating imputed rent as part of income would decrease retirees´ poverty. |
| Keywords: | poverty, welfare, decomposition |
| JEL: | C38 D31 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_35 |
| By: | Hurskainen, Henna |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the development of Chinese exports to Central Asian countries after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The analysis, which relies on export data from China to Asian countries at a general product level, shows that China's exports to Central Asia have significantly increased since the start of the war. In particular, exports to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have increased significantly. The analysis focuses on exports in Harmonized System (HS) categories 84, 85, 87, and 90. Many of the products sanctioned by the West in trade with Russia belong to these categories, but the categories also include many non-sanctioned products. Although the value of China's exports to Central Asia is still smaller than direct trade with Russia, China's exports - especially to Kyrgyzstan - have seen dramatic increases in the HS 84, 85, 87, and 90 categories. Along with the export growth from China to Central Asia, exports in these categories from Central Asia to Russia have also increased significantly. |
| Keywords: | China, Central Asia, Russia, exports |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:303041 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan's economy is at a critical juncture, with the decreasing reliance on resource-based income signaling an imminent transition. The nation's strategic focus on economic diversification offers substantial prospects for growth in non-oil sectors. However, the pressing question remains: Is Azerbaijan sufficiently prepared for the post-oil era? This paper aims to rigorously assess the key performance indicators outlined in the nation's state programs and strategic roadmaps, particularly in the context of diversifying the economy. By providing an in-depth analysis of both retrospective and prospective GDP growth, this study highlights the challenges and opportunities Azerbaijan faces in cultivating a more diverse and resilient economic landscape. The findings suggest that while there are significant hurdles to overcome, there is considerable potential for the country to transition towards a more sustainable, diversified economy that is less dependent on oil revenues. This evaluation not only underscores the necessity for continued reforms but also identifies key areas where strategic investments and policy shifts could yield long-term benefits for Azerbaijan's economic future. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, national economy, GDP growth, COP29, fossil fuel, post-oil era, diversification, non-oil and gas exports, Strategic Roadmaps, State Programs |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:303481 |
| By: | Munroe, Ellen; Nosach, Anastasiia; Pedrozo, Moisés; Guarnieri, Eleonora; Riaño, Juan Felipe; Tur-Prats, Ana; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. (1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. (2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees and war. (3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes. |
| Keywords: | conflict; bombing; political repression; forced migration; gender; sexual violence; Ukraine |
| JEL: | D74 N10 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123566 |
| By: | Sinara Gharibyan |
| Abstract: | Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. During both World War I (WWI) and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Russia was anticipated to provide military support to Armenia, its ally, but failed to do so. I demonstrate that the memories of the first Russian betrayal were activated after the second war. I identify family memory of the first betrayal using distinct West Armenian (Ottoman Armenian) surnames and proxy collective memory through locations renamed to commemorate lost Armenian localities during WWI. The difference-in-differences (DiD) approach shows that both family and collective remembrance negatively affect pro-Russian parties’ vote share, with all the conventional assumptions of DiD verified. Family remembrance influences behavior through traumatic recall, whereas collective remembrance operates via social capital. |
| Keywords: | Collective memory, Family remembrance, Voting, Social capital |
| JEL: | D7 J15 N44 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp787 |
| By: | Lakhan, Calvin |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study conducts a comprehensive meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness, economic costs, and long-term sustainability of deposit return systems (DRS) for beverage containers across various countries. DRS are recognized as a critical strategy to enhance recycling rates, reduce environmental waste, and support the transition toward a circular economy. While empirical evidence from countries like Germany, Norway, and Lithuania indicates that DRS can achieve recycling rates exceeding 90%, challenges such as high setup costs, stakeholder resistance, policy inconsistency, and adaptability to market changes complicate their implementation and sustainability. The analysis synthesizes data from diverse geographic contexts, highlighting the factors that contribute to the success or failure of DRS, including public engagement, policy stability, technological adaptation, and effective stakeholder collaboration. The findings suggest that while DRS can provide substantial environmental and economic benefits, their long-term success is contingent upon sustained public participation, consistent policies, adaptability to market shifts, and robust stakeholder engagement. This study offers critical insights for policymakers, environmental advocates, and industry stakeholders seeking to optimize DRS as a tool for sustainable waste management. |
| Date: | 2024–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zj2v5 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick & University of Bonn); Christina Palmou (Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK); Jakob Schneebacher (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), UK & King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | Energy price shock, firm dynamics, climate change, high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:337 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Since 2016, Azerbaijan has been hosting the Formula 1 Grand Prix. Due to COVID-19, the race was not held in 2020 and was conducted without spectators in 2021. The initial contract for the event was supposed to end in 2020, but it was extended for another three years. In 2023, Azerbaijan secured the continuation of its hosting rights until at least 20261. Apart from Formula 1, the country has hosted several other prestigious international events, including the Eurovision Song Contest in 2012, the first European Olympic Games in 2015, the 4th Islamic Solidarity Games in 2017, and the European Youth Olympic Festival in 2019. In 2024, Azerbaijan will host COP29, the most significant event in its history since independence, further adding to its diverse event portfolio. Despite some questions surrounding Baku's role as a host for Formula 1 compared to other international sports events, the Azerbaijani government has regularly organized the race for the past seven years and has yet to address these questions. The 2024 Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is scheduled to take place again in Baku from September 13 to 15. In this paper, we examine the myths and realities regarding the economic impact of Formula 1 races. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:303482 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022, two major geopolitical crises have shaken the world. First, Russia attacked Ukrainian territory as part of a "special military operation" to demilitarize it and defend Russian-speaking regions. In turn, in October 2023, the Middle East has experienced a new dramatic episode in its history, with an Israeli-Palestinian war in the Gaza Strip. In both cases, the violent fighting is causing humanitarian crises. While this is an essential issue, it should not conceal the reality of major environmental crises. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflicts, Biodiversity, Ecocide, Environmental impact, Pollution |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04696550 |
| By: | Johannes Sauer; Philipp Mennig; Will Chancellor; Jesús Antón |
| Abstract: | The resilience of farms in a world of increasing climate uncertainties is a growing policy concern on a global scale. Resilience means finding a balance between ensuring adequate preparation to confront shocks, the ability to absorb its immediate impact, and, as part of the recovery phase, adapting and transforming farm practices to a new environment. A dynamic framework developed by OECD to measure these resilience capacities is applied to three case studies: crop farms affected by drought in Australia, and livestock farms impacted by disease outbreaks in France and Estonia. It was found that most farms performed well in only two of the four resilience capacities. Productivity, investment, and technical change are found to be key drivers of most resilience capacities in Australia, while in Estonia marketing contracts facilitated the successful adaptation and transformation of pig farms during the recovery phase. Future research should focus on finding how to better balance the four resilience capacities, prioritising the analysis of policy drivers. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Climate adaptation, Livestock diseases, Transformation |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q18 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:211-en |
| By: | Bajo-Rubio, Oscar; Zhou, Jing |
| Abstract: | We provide in this chapter a quantitative assessment of the global effects, i.e., the effects on the countries concerned, as well as on mainland China, the European Union, the United States and the rest of the world, following an increase of Chinese direct investment in the Indo-Pacific region. The empirical methodology makes use of a Computable General Equilibrium model, which allows obtaining the consequences of changes in a particular variable on the whole economy under analysis, together with the specific effects across the different productive sectors. The results show that an increase in Chinese direct investment would have a mostly positive and significant effect on the GDP levels of the Indo-Pacific countries, especially in Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and India; and, to a lower extent, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand. These results were mostly driven by increases in consumption, since investment fell in almost all cases. The effects on the other world regions proved to be very small. |
| Keywords: | Direct investment, China, Indo-Pacific, Computable General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | C68 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1498 |