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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Anton Pichler; Jan Hurt; Tobias Reisch; Johannes Stangl; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07981 |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Szymczak |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the adoption of automation technologies – industrial robots and software and databases – on the incidence of atypical employment in 13 E.U. countries between 2006 and 2018. We combine survey microdata with sectoral information on technology use and exploit the variation at the demographic group level. Using instrumental variables estimation, we find that industrial robots significantly increase atypical employment share, mostly through involuntary part-time and involuntary fixed-term work. We find no robust effect of software and databases. We also show that the higher trade union coverage mitigates the robots’ impact on atypical employment, while employment protection legislation appears to play no role. Using historical decompositions, we attribute about 1-2 percentage points of atypical employment shares to rising robot exposure, especially in Central and Eastern European countries with low unionisation. |
| Keywords: | robots, automation, atypical employment, trade unions |
| JEL: | J23 J51 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp022024 |
| By: | Lavrič, Mitja; Lenarčič, Črt |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the drivers of LSTI ratio dynamics. Against this backdrop, we try to bridge this gap by introducing an average synthetic LSTI calculation and examine how various factors affect the LSTI ratio of borrowers that took out consumer and housing loans in Slovenia based on monthly frequency data spanning from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023. We note that the general growth of the incomes of consumers who took out loans inhibited the growth of the average LSTI ratio. Factors affecting the LSTI ratio had an offsetting effect on the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a consumer loan, while factors affecting the LSTI ratio caused an increase in the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan. One of the more important factors that influenced the growth of the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan was the increase in the interest rate for housing loans. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, LSTI Ratio, Borrower-Based Measures. |
| JEL: | C10 C40 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122036 |
| By: | Hossain, Mobarak; Jukes, Matthew C. H. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the emergence of gender differences in socioemotional skills and traits during adolescence, and the socioeconomic and cultural factors that may explain such gaps, in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Findings from Young Lives longitudinal data showed that the gender gap in self-efficacy emerges around age 19, with males scoring more highly than females in Ethiopia, India and Vietnam. Similar, but less consistent, patterns were observed for self-esteem and peer relations. At age 22, males also scored more highly than females, in at least one country, in emotional stability, conscientiousness, grit, and teamwork. In India and Ethiopia, the two countries with higher poverty and more unequal gender attitudes, we found gender differences in a greater number of socioemotional skills or traits. A predictive analysis of self-efficacy, emotional stability and teamwork found that time spent in paid and unpaid household activities, having a more equal attitude to gender roles, and socioeconomic status were associated with the gender gap in socioemotional skills. These covariates explained gender gaps more in India and Ethiopia than in other countries. However, substantial portions of gender differences remained unexplained by available variables. Our findings may help clarify the origins of gender inequalities in life outcomes and how they can be addressed through socioemotional programmes in adolescence. |
| Keywords: | socioemotional skills; LMICs; young lives; longitudinal analysis; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124441 |
| By: | Dagiene, Eleonora (Mykolas Romeris University); Larivière, Vincent; Dix, Guus; Waltman, Ludo |
| Abstract: | Performance-based funding systems have significantly impacted the research systems in many countries. This study examines the evolution of the performance-based funding system in Lithuania. Using a multi-level, multi-actor, and multi-issue approach, we investigate how various actors influenced policy choices and outcomes. Through a combination of policy analysis, interviews, and bibliometric analysis, we explore tensions between international aspirations and domestic realities, the interplay between national policies and publishing behaviour, and challenges of metrics-based research assessment. Our findings reveal how the dominant role of scientific elites at all levels of governance had both intended outcomes (increase in publications in general and international publications in particular) and unintended consequences (proliferation of institutional journals and strategic publishing practices). Our study provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to develop effective and sustainable policies amidst calls for research assessment reform. |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9yq38 |
| By: | Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Micu DDM Dan Doru; Adrian Cote |
| Abstract: | This research explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and preferences related to household energy consumption through actions to fight climate change in Belgium, Romania, Italy, and Sweden. Using data from two Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 2019 and 2021, the study examines shifts in climate change perception, actions to combat climate change, and the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables on these actions. Depending on the country, the findings reveal significant pandemic-induced changes in public perceptions of climate change and personal actions to combat it. Age, gender, and education level were found to influence climate change actions. Financial constraints also significantly influenced the adoption of energy-efficient behaviors. Our research enriches existing knowledge by exploring the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change perceptions and actions across diverse European countries, shedding light on the interplay between global crises and sustainability. The research methodology, including chi-square tests, logistic regression, and effect size measurements, provides a robust framework for understanding how economic factors and consumer behaviors are contributing to the development of effective energy policies. |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/377982 |
| By: | Ed Cornforth; Patricia Sánchez Juanino |
| Abstract: | The National Institute Global Econometric Model (NIGEM) serves globally as a key macroeconomic instrument for economists and policymakers to understand the intricate economic dynamics across countries, with a specific focus on examining scenarios. Within NIGEM, countries can exhibit differences in specification, particularly regarding the labour market, government sector, and components of domestic demand. Models with a complete specification are defined as "full country models, " while those with a more simplified specification are named "reduced country models". In this paper, we analyse how this differentiation impacts NIGEM outputs and identify the primary driving forces in each model type, using as examples the recent expansions of the Malaysian and Romanian models. |
| Keywords: | modelling, macroeconomics |
| JEL: | C51 E37 F47 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:558 |
| By: | Mircea V. Duca (Baia-Mare, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Democracy represents the engine of societal evolution from an economic and legal standpoint but with a profound impact on the psycho-emotional relationships between individuals engaged in the mechanisms of communal life. Inherent to human beings is only natural right, that ensemble of harmoniously related and innate principles to man, a system that finds its origin in the a priori space of ontological nature. The majority of constitutions pertaining to free states affirm democracy as the sole instrument capable of providing citizens with freedom of conscience, expression, opinion, and last but not least, the decency of life as the primary condition for lifelong education and cultural refinement. This article explores the intricate relationship between democracy, natural law, moral consciousness, and individual autonomy, emphasizing their interconnected roles in developing a just and equitable society. |
| Keywords: | democracy, natural law, positive law, society, religion, culture, education |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0370 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (Warwick University and University of Bonn); Palmou, Christina (Office for National Statistics (ONS)); Schneebacher, Jakob (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use kmeans clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock ; firm dynamics ; climate change ; high-dimensional analysis JEL Codes: D22 ; D24 ; H23 ; L11 ; O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1517 |