|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University, and); Bjørnskov, Christian (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, and); Kouba, Luděk (Department of Economics,) |
| Abstract: | The discussion of the growth consequences of socialism has fulminated for a century, sparked off by the Calculation Debate in the 1920s and 30s, and has concerned the performance of the Soviet Union in the 1950s and the mixed development in the 1990s after communism collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe. We aim to inform these debates by providing an empirical assessment of how socialist economies performed across the second half of the 20th century. Using both neighbour comparisons as well as more formal empirical analysis of developing countries that turned socialist after independence, we derive a set of estimates of the degree to which the introduction of a planned socialist economy affects long-run growth and development. All analyses point towards an annual growth decline of approximately two percentage points during the first decade after implementing socialism. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; Socialism |
| JEL: | O11 O43 P20 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1499 |
| By: | Barbora Holubová |
| Abstract: | Personal and household services (PHS) are vital for the well-being of families and individuals, transforming households into workplaces. Despite their importance, this sector faces poor working conditions and undervalued work, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, due to weak regulations and ineffective industrial relations. Therefore, the Perhouse project, supported by the European Union, aims to explore the challenges in working conditions and the role of social dialogue in advancing PHS regarding working conditions and regulations. This report presents the findings for Slovakia and aims to answer two research questions. First, it examines the current state and structure of service provision in the sector and the working conditions of PHS workers in Slovakia. Second, it explores the role of social dialogue in improving these conditions and developing relevant regulations in Slovakia's PHS sector. The PHS sector in Slovakia unequivocally suffers from a lack of standardised definitions and an overly complex regulatory framework, posing significant challenges in terms of regulation, recognition, and access to services. The sector's diverse nature, characterised by varying levels of formality and informality, creates unacceptable disparities in worker recognition, rights, and compensation. |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:61 |
| By: | Eduard Hromada (Vysoká ?kola CEVRO); Klara Cermakova (Vysoká ?kola CEVRO); Lucie Kurekova (Vysoká ?kola CEVRO); Bozena Kaderabkova (Vysoká ?kola CEVRO) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving landscape of the real estate market in the Czech Republic from 2018 to 2023, focusing on apartment pricing trends, the impact of socio-economic factors, apartment sizes and layouts, energy efficiency in residential buildings, and distinctions between ownership types. The study categorises Czech cities into different price tiers and discusses the implications of these categories for potential investors, homebuyers and policymakers. It also examines the standardisation of apartment layouts across cities, the gradual improvement in energy efficiency ratings, and the shift from co-operative and state-owned/community owned to private ownership. The results show a general upward trend in house prices, interrupted by a slight decline in 2023 due to higher mortgage rates triggered by the Czech National Bank's anti-inflationary measures. The expected future easing of these rates should stimulate the market's recovery. This comprehensive analysis helps to delineate key trends and offers a deeper understanding of the factors shaping the Czech Republic's real estate market, providing valuable insights for stakeholders in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Real estate market, pricing trends, apartment layouts, energy efficiency, property ownership, socio-economic factors, market analysis, housing affordability, investment opportunities. |
| JEL: | O18 R31 R21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14416303 |
| By: | Gambaro, Ludovica (London School of Economics); Huebener, Mathias (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)); Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Institute for Population Research); Spieß, C. Katharina (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)) |
| Abstract: | In armed conflicts, it is common for women, children, and the elderly to flee, leaving the men behind. While refugee women face particular challenges in caring for children in host countries, there is only limited evidence on the impact of childcare services on their integration. This paper examines the role of childcare services in the integration, employment, and well-being of refugee mothers. We focus on the displacement caused by the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Our analysis is based on a unique, large, and representative panel data set of Ukrainian refugees in Germany. We find a strong correlation between childcare attendance and the participation of refugee mothers in language courses, labour market activity, and social interaction. To establish causality, we leverage exogenous regional differences in childcare availability and excess demand. Our results reveal significant positive effects of childcare services on the participation of refugee mothers in language and integration programs, as well as employment and their interactions with Germans. However, we find no effects on maternal well-being. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing childcare services to refugee mothers to facilitate their integration. |
| Keywords: | childcare services, refugees, forced migration, integration, employment, Ukraine |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17181 |
| By: | Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia); Jaanika Merikull (Bank of Estonia); Paloma Lopez-Garcia (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the Covid-19 pandemic and the extensive job retention support that accompanied it affected productivity in Europe. The focus is on the reallocation channel and productivity-enhancing reallocation of jobs, following Foster et al., 2016. An extensive micro-distributed analysis of firm-level data for 11 euro area countries is used. The unique firm-level datasets are constructed by merging balance-sheet and income-statement data with policy support data. The paper exploits variation in employment responsiveness to productivity over time, particularly examining the relationship between changes in employment responsiveness and the job retention support in 2020 and studying how well the support was targeted by firm productivity. Acknowledging limitations of a small set of countries covered and occasionally large confidence bounds around estimates, the findings suggest that (1) productivity-enhancing reallocation was weaker in the pandemic than in the Great Recession; (2) The countries that were more generous with job retention support and countries where more support was allocated to lowproductivity firms showed weaker productivity-enhancing reallocation in 2020. |
| JEL: | D22 H25 J38 L29 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1105 |
| By: | Erik Gogola (University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | This study identifies financially vulnerable indebted Slovak households most at risk of defaulting on loan payments due to socio-economic and demographic factors. The recent economic shifts, including a surge in Slovakia's inflation rate peaking at 15.4% in February 2023, have exacerbated financial strain. Analysis of HFCS microdata shows increased household indebtedness, particularly mortgage debt, from 2011 to 2021. Households with negative financial margins, limited liquid assets, younger (16-34) and older (65+) age groups, single-person households, and those in the lowest income and wealth quintiles are most vulnerable. Logistic regression reveals that gross income is the most significant determinant of default probability, with higher income households being less likely to default. The study highlights the need for targeted policy measures to support these vulnerable groups and mitigate default risks. |
| Keywords: | Slovak household indebtedness, socio-economic and demographic factors HFCS, household vulnerability, logistic regression |
| JEL: | D14 E43 C21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14316324 |
| By: | Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | The debt service-to-income ratio represents a critical indicator of retail credit risk. While the calculation of this ratio is straightforward for individual retail clients, obtaining it at the country level presents a more significant challenge. Nevertheless, such a measure can provide early warning signals and can help explaining household consumption throughout the credit cycle. Furthermore, the macro DSTI enables a comparison of debt burden across countries. In this paper we estimate the annual and quarterly ratio of debt service-to-income, or Macro DSTI, for selected EU countries. We make several adjustments to currently available comparable indices, like the Debt Service Ratio calculated by the BIS. The estimation of the index solely for indebted households, with the inclusion of their net income, enables a more accurate reflection of the actual debt service burden at the country level. While the majority of countries observed a decline or stagnation in macro DSTI following the Great Financial Crisis, Slovakia exhibited a notable increase, with a decline starting in 2018 resulting from a reduction in consumer loans. |
| JEL: | C8 E44 E50 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1106 |
| By: | Erik Gogola (University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | The increase in indebtedness of Slovak households, combined with the recent significant rise in interest rates and high inflation, will result in greater pressure on households to fulfil all their debt obligations. In our thesis, we utilised microeconomic data from the last available Household Financing and Consumption Survey (HFCS). We identify financially vulnerable households based on the concept of financial margin. Furthermore, we conducted microsimulations stress tests to assess households? resilience against interest rate and inflation shocks. These tests were designed to investigate the impact of these shocks on household vulnerability and subsequently on financial stability. Our findings show that inflation shocks have a more pronounced impact on the growth rate of indebted households with negative financial margin and the probability of default compared to interest rate shocks. In contrast, the impact of interest rate shocks on aggregate debt amount at risk is greater than that of inflation shocks. It is important to note that while an interest rate shock has a more pronounced effect on debt at risk, the actual bank losses are not affected by the change in interest rates. The increase in bank actual loan losses, caused by households defaulting on their loan payments, is caused only by inflation shocks. Furthermore, the entirety of the loan losses incurred by the banks can be attributed to non-mortgage loans, with no actual loan losses resulting from mortgage loans prior to and even after the application of the shocks. The results of the stress testing analysis indicate that the credit risk associated with the Slovak household sector does not represent a significant threat to the stability of the financial system. This is due to the fact that the majority of Slovak household liabilities are covered by substantial real assets held by households. |
| Keywords: | Slovak household indebtedness, HFCS, household vulnerability, stress tests |
| JEL: | D14 E43 G21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14316305 |
| By: | Cristina Ramona Duta (Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | During the communist regime between 1945-1989, the Romanian state, through various normative acts, took over private property goods to establish collective property. After the fall of the communist regime, a series of normative acts were adopted to return wrongfully taken property to the owners. This article aims to analyze, with reference to the normative acts adopted after 1989 and the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights, to what extent the Romanian State has succeeded in ensuring an efficient mechanism for the restitution of property confiscated or nationalized by the communist regime, implicitly respecting the right to private property. |
| Keywords: | property rights, wrongful taking, Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, Hauer v. Germany, Maria Atanasiu v. Romania |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01286 |
| By: | Reyman, Katarzyna; Maier, Gunther |
| Abstract: | The system of property rights, the way it is organised, protected and executed affects the land development process and the timing of land development. Real options literature that explains impact of additional uncertainties connected with organisation of property right system on timing of land development concerns mostly western countries. Poland and other CEEC have some unique issues relating to ownership right system that come from post-war, communists, and transition times (previous owners, specific property titles derived from a communist era, reprivatisation, communalisation, etc.). Ownership right is perceived as a very strong right by society, what results from long time of collective ownership, and have some implications on executing property rights. Thus, this paper explains on an example of Poland, CEEC specific property right issues and analyses how it can affect the timing of land development basing on western solutions from real option theory. The topic is important because land markets are strongly influenced by institutions which may vary even in countries with the same economic and political systems like unified EU countries. Therefore, it is essential to understand past historical influence and societal background that have an effect on those institutions. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus009:66520162 |
| By: | Hisaki Kono KONO; Bich-Ngoc T. PHAM |
| Abstract: | Ray and Genicott (2023) proposed a new metric for upward mobility, which also captures the concept of inclusive growth. We proposed several decomposition analyses of this metric using household-level data, which can help identify the factors that contributed to the observed inclusive growth. We applied these methods to Vietnam, a country that experienced rapid and equitable economic growth. Our findings reveal that rural residents, who were initially left behind, experienced more inclusive growth than urban residents, contributing to overall national-level inclusive growth. The impact of household demographic factors such as education levels and job status was relatively minor in explaining inclusive growth in Vietnam. Instead, regional economic performance emerged as a key driver of inclusive growth. The limited impact of education improvement is likely because the poor tended to be low-educated elderly people who would not directly benefit from the improvement of education. These findings underscore the importance of economic growth and expansion of social security systems, such as old-age pension programs, to achieve inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational income mobility |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-24-003 |
| By: | Giuli Keshelashvili (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University) |
| Abstract: | In an era of rapid global environmental change, the role of business in fostering sustainable development has become critical. This research investigates the influence of business practices on the sustainable development trajectory of Georgia, emphasizing the urgent need for a transformation in managerial attitudes to align with sustainability objectives. The study analyzes the challenges and opportunities that Georgian businesses face in integrating sustainability into their core strategies, a crucial aspect for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations.Georgia's approach to sustainable development has been hindered by inadequate regulatory frameworks and a lack of institutional support, which has resulted in slow adoption rates of sustainable practices among local businesses. This paper explores the cultural and economic factors influencing this adoption and discusses the potential of governmental and non-governmental interventions to accelerate the process. The research method combines analytical, synthetic, and comparative approaches to assess the impact of business and consumer behaviors on sustainable development, utilizing a mixture of quantitative data from online surveys and qualitative insights from interviews and focus groups.Key findings suggest that while there is a growing awareness of sustainability among Georgian businesses, significant gaps in implementation persist. These gaps stem from a lack of detailed knowledge about the SDGs, coupled with cultural tendencies that favor short-term gains over long-term sustainability. The study recommends a multi-faceted approach to fostering sustainable business practices, including more robust government policies, increased educational efforts, and stronger incentives for businesses adopting sustainable practices.The paper concludes that for Georgia, adopting a more integrated and proactive approach to sustainability can not only enhance its environmental and social outcomes but also provide a strategic advantage in the global economy. By redefining managerial attitudes and business practices, Georgian enterprises can lead the region in sustainable development, contributing to both their economic success and the well-being of society. |
| Keywords: | Managerial Attitude, Sustainable Development, Business Opportunities, Customers |
| JEL: | M20 R11 M00 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14316153 |
| By: | Heller, Anna Lena; Brunzema, Iska; Schlomann, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty, characterized by a lack of access to reliable and affordable energy services, persists to be a critical global challenge with far-reaching socio-economic implications. As this also remains to be an urgent issue in the EU, measures alleviating energy poverty are critical to ensure a just energy transition. Instead of being a co-benefit of packages such as the Energy Efficiency first principle and only tackling the issue via social policies, the recast of the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) mandate are treating energy poverty via energy efficiency measures. Thus, this paper focuses on energy efficiency policies that address energy poverty, based on the MURE database which contains energy efficiency measures of the EU Member States, Switzerland, and Energy Union partners. Recognizing the diverse nature of energy poverty across the EU, the European Commission guides Member States to adopt individualized approaches to combat this issue. To illustrate the different contexts and strategies, the paper includes case studies from Greece, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, and India. In the upcoming years, further policy measures alleviating energy poverty are to be expected due to the new requirements for the Member States in the EED and EPBD recast. This paper is intended to show examples of measures alleviating energy poverty that could be used to implement the future EU requirements in the Member States. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty, energy efficiency policy, EU policy, case studies, reporting requirements |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:302185 |
| By: | Trang T. Hoang; Devashish Mitra; Hoang Pham |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of an export market expansion created by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) on labor market competition among Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We measure distortionary wedges between equilibrium marginal revenue products of labor (MRPL) and wages nonparametrically and find that the median firm pays workers 59% of their MRPL. The BTA permanently decreases labor market distortion in manufacturing by 3.4%, mainly for domestic private firms. The median distortion is 26% higher for women than men, and the decline in distortion for women drives the overall distortion reduction. We shed some light on the mechanisms for these results. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Export Market Access; Labor Market Distortion; Misallocation; Income Distribution; Labor Share; Gender Inequality; Monopsony; Oligopsony |
| JEL: | F16 F63 O15 O24 J42 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1394 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article will examine eight factors and evaluate the probability of Azerbaijan's manat devaluation in the post-oil period. However, there is no proportionality between the degree of influence of the listed factors and their ranking. |
| Keywords: | devaluation, inflation, PPP, manat, foreign trade, current account balance, REEM, bank, HHI |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:301884 |
| By: | Ofer Malamud; Andreea Mitrut; Cristian Pop-Eleches; Miguel Urquiola |
| Abstract: | We examine student, teacher, and peer perceptions of effort, ability, performance, and self-confidence in Romania’s highly tracked schools. We find that: (1) students just above a cutoff—tracked into high-achieving classes—have less favorable self-perceptions than those just below (“big-fish-little-pond” effects); (2) students perceive peers in their classes more favorably (“in-group bias”); (3) this bias is stronger in lower-achieving classes; (4) students perceive themselves more positively than others perceive them (“illusory superiority”); (5) this bias is stronger among lower-achieving students (“Krueger-Dunning effects”). In short, being tracked into lower-achieving classes does not appear to negatively affect self-perceptions. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32892 |
| By: | Rustam Azimov (JSC EIIC); Abdulaziz Abdullaev (JSC EIIC) |
| Abstract: | An important priority, which is crucial for the growth of the potential and competitiveness of the economy of independent Uzbekistan, is the implementation of an active investment policy for the introduction of strategically significant projects aimed at modernization, technical and technological renewal of the leading basic industries, development of a powerful modern network of transport and infrastructure communications. The reasons that determine the need for investment in the transforming economy of the country are: renewal of the existing material and technical base, increase in production volumes, development of new types of activities. Any of the above-mentioned directions implies the investment of significant funds and a certain time between the decision to implement the activity, the moment of investment of funds and the moment of their return upon achievement of the set goals. Therefore, the risk factor of financial losses, damage and reduction of the overall economic efficiency of entrepreneurial activity under the influence of external and internal factors is of significant importance in investment activity. The occurrence of a direct correlation between the efficiency of investment activity and the level of risks implies the need to use effective risk management mechanisms, one of which is insurance. It should be mentioned that Uzbekistan was one of the first post-Soviet countries to insure risks of investment projects. Effective insurance of investment project risks is possible in the presence of either sufficient capital and experience of insurers and developed infrastructure of the insurance market, providing high-quality pre-insurance expertise of investment project risks, or the state policy of support of such insurance. The system approach to insurance of risks of investment projects, professional activity of domestic insurers allowed to provide optimal protection of insurance interests of private entrepreneurs and small business entities during realization of their projects in different branches of economy of our republic. |
| Keywords: | Investment, Insurance, Investment project risks, Risk management |
| JEL: | A12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14416326 |
| By: | Łukasz Gębski (Institute of Banking, Warsaw School of Economics, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland); Georges Daw (Université Paris-Saclay, UFR Économie-Droit-Management, Bât. A – Office A6, 54 Bd. Desgranges, 92330 Sceaux, France., Laboratoire d’Économie Dionysien-LED, EA 3391, Université Paris 8 Vincennes - Saint-Denis, Saint-Denis, France - LED) |
| Abstract: | Consumer protection in the financial market has several dimensions. From a formal point of view, consumer rights are guaranteed by law. Educational programs are implemented in schools and the media to promote knowledge and responsible use of financial products and services. Despite the efforts made, the number of incorrect and suboptimal financial decisions is so high that the risk of households falling into excessive debt remains significant. The limited effectiveness of the law led to the claim that only effective education can reduce the risk of suboptimal financial decisions. Unfortunately, the efforts made in this area are not fully satisfactory. The study of financial knowledge of consumers, which was conducted in Poland in January 2024, aimed to verify consumer errors and their nature. As part of the consumer study, not only declared knowledge was verified, but also actual knowledge. The researchers' doubts resulted from a comparison of the results of scientific research in this area with the current market situation. Consumers declare a high level of knowledge of economic and financial concepts. In practice, however, they make mistakes that do not only indicate behavioral cognitive errors but also a lack of knowledge. The test questions were constructed in such a way as to verify the declared knowledge (based on verification questions). These showed that the actual level of knowledge was lower than the declared one. A review of the literature and studies of financial knowledge and financial competence of consumers in Central European countries was also carried out. Analysis of the results allowed for the formulation of conclusions regarding the educational gap in relation to social characteristics. The conclusions resulting from the study raise questions about the effectiveness of the educational methods used and indicate possible directions of changes in the consumer regulation policy, the aim of which is to ensure a high level of consumer protection. |
| Abstract: | La protection des consommateurs sur le marché financier revêt plusieurs dimensions. D'un point de vue formel, les droits des consommateurs sont garantis par la loi. Des programmes éducatifs sont mis en œuvre dans les écoles et les médias pour promouvoir la connaissance et l'utilisation responsable des produits et services financiers. En dépit des efforts déployés, le nombre de décisions financières incorrectes et sous-optimales est si élevé que le risque de surendettement des ménages reste important et susceptible de conséquences macroéconomiques. L'efficacité limitée de la loi a conduit à affirmer que seule une éducation efficace peut réduire le risque de décisions financières sous-optimales. Cependant, les efforts déployés dans ce domaine ne sont pas encore satisfaisants. L'étude sur les connaissances financières des consommateurs, menée en Pologne en janvier 2024, visait à vérifier les erreurs commises par ces derniers et leur nature. Dans le cadre de l'étude sur les consommateurs, nous avons vérifié non seulement les connaissances déclarées, mais aussi les connaissances réelles. Les préoccupations des chercheurs résultent d'une comparaison entre les résultats de la recherche scientifique dans ce domaine et la situation effective du marché. Les consommateurs déclarent avoir un niveau élevé de connaissances des concepts économiques et financiers. Cependant, dans la pratique, ils commettent des erreurs qui ne sont pas uniquement d'ordre cognitif et comportemental, mais aussi liées à un manque de connaissances. Les questions du test non-paramétrique ont été formulées de manière à vérifier les connaissances déclarées (sur la base de questions de vérification). Elles ont révélé que le niveau effectif de connaissances était inférieur au niveau déclaré. Une revue de la littérature et des études sur les connaissances et les compétences financières des consommateurs dans les pays d'Europe centrale a également été réalisée. L'analyse des résultats a permis de formuler des conclusions concernant les lacunes en matière d'éducation financière par rapport aux normes actuelles. |
| Keywords: | financial knowledge consumer finance household finance responsible lending and borrowing JEL Classification: G51 G53 I22, financial knowledge, consumer finance, household finance, responsible lending and borrowing JEL Classification: G51, G51, G53, I22 |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04679416 |