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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Glauben, Thomas; Prehn, Sören; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda |
| Abstract: | The international wheat market has entered into a new era since 2000 as the structural changes in post-Soviet Union states had impacts. Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine (KRU) have started to utilize their vast resources and rapidly became major actors in international grain markets. Romania in East Europe is another emerging grain exporter upon the collapse of the Iron Wall. Upon the Russia invasion of Ukraine and short-run disruptions in global wheat, corn and oilseed supply chains, it becomes a question how different is the sta-bility of grain trade relation between these new actors and old actors. We have tried to respond to this question by using the annual trade data during 2001-2021 and applying the discrete time hazard model to estimate the baseline hazard and the survival ratio for 11 major wheat exporters. The results of these estimations show that we can’t recognize separate clusters for old and new actors, and the probability of trade survival over a longer period is very diverse between old actors and new actors. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi23:344241 |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Banu Demir; Beata Javorcik |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. Sanctions forcing existing (large) exporters to discontinue or reduce their sales in target countries create profit opportunities in these markets. But firms responding to these opportunities face (i) risk of nonpayment, (ii) reputational risks and the threat of punitive measures, if exposed trading with unfriendly countries and (iii) higher costs of established trading practice, e.g., payment in international currencies through inter national circuits. This paper builds a stylized model accounting for these factors and provides empirical evidence exploiting developments in Türkiye’s international trade in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent introduction of western sanctions on Russia. It shows that Turkish exports to Russia have risen sharply across sanctioned and nonsanctioned products, with Turkish firms charging higher markups and prices. These developments were accompanied by an increase in the share of cash-in-advance transactions and the share of Turkish firms invoicing in Turkish liras instead of dollars. Overall, the paper provides evidence of strong trade diversion, particularly for products for which the pre-war market share of European exporters was high. Yet, exports of firms with significant Western ties via ownership and trade have dropped or remained unchanged. |
| Date: | 2024–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1052 |
| By: | Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study looks at whether Kazakh and Russian wheat exporters leverage their dominant share of the wheat markets in the South Caucasus to exercise market power. We apply a three-stage estimation for systems of simultaneous equations and Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression to analyse residual demand elasticity. The results of both estimations provide empirical evi-dence of Russian market power in the wheat markets of the South Caucasus but no evidence of a Kazakh oligopoly. Russian exporters possess greater market power in Armenia than in Geor-gia. Market power depends on the presence of competitors in the destination market. The results show that Kazakh exporters restrict the market powers of Russian exporters in the Azerbaijani wheat market, while Russian exporters constrain the market power of Kazakh exporters in the Azerbaijani and Georgian wheat markets. Ukrainian wheat exporters are able to intervene in the market powers of Russian exporters in Azerbaijan and Georgia, while they restrict Kazakh oligopoly in the Georgian market. Some export restrictions imposed by wheat exporting coun-tries significantly affected competition in wheat importing countries. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi23:344230 |
| By: | Sourish Das |
| Abstract: | In this work, we present an alternative passive investment strategy. The passive investment philosophy comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), and its adoption is widespread. If EMH is true, one cannot outperform market by actively managing their portfolio for a long time. Also, it requires little to no intervention. People can buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with a long-term perspective. As the economy grows over time, one expects the ETF to grow. For example, in India, one can invest in NETF, which suppose to mimic the Nifty50 return. However, the weights of the Nifty 50 index are based on market capitalisation. These weights are not necessarily optimal for the investor. In this work, we present that volatility risk and extreme risk measures of the Nifty50 portfolio are uniformly larger than Markowitz's optimal portfolio. However, common people can't create an optimised portfolio. So we proposed an alternative passive investment strategy of an equal-weight portfolio. We show that if one pushes the maximum weight of the portfolio towards equal weight, the idiosyncratic risk of the portfolio would be minimal. The empirical evidence indicates that the risk profile of an equal-weight portfolio is similar to that of Markowitz's optimal portfolio. Hence instead of buying Nifty50 ETFs, one should equally invest in the stocks of Nifty50 to achieve a uniformly better risk profile than the Nifty 50 ETF portfolio. We also present an analysis of how portfolios perform to idiosyncratic events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We found that the equal weight portfolio has a uniformly lower risk than the Nifty 50 portfolio before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. All codes are available on GitHub (\url{https://github.com/sourish-cmi/qua nt/tree/main/Chap_Risk_Anal_of_Passive_P ortfolio}). |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.08332 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Very few studies have examined the impacts of both climate change and air pollution on student education outcomes, particularly in a developing country setting. Analyzing a rich database consisting of household and school surveys, test scores, and temperature and air pollution data over the past decade for Viet Nam, we find that a 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration in the month preceding exams leads to 0.015 and 0.010 standard deviation decreases in math and reading scores, respectively. We also find some indicative evidence of stronger impacts of air pollution for younger, primary school students who reside in urban areas and in districts with higher temperatures. While we find some mixed effects of temperature, we do not find significant effects on students' test scores for temperature extremes and air pollution over the past 12 months. Our findings offer policy-relevant inputs for the country's ongoing efforts to fight air pollution. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, climate change, weather extremes, education, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | O12 I10 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17160 |
| By: | Baturo, Alexander |
| Abstract: | How do autocrats try to win over other member states and gain support for their counternorms? Rather than directly opposing liberal values, autocrats may resort to subtler tactics that make it difficult for others not to support their norm-based initiatives. Russia, a prominent authoritarian regime, has centered its international efforts on enhancing the salience and universality of combating Nazism. Because of linkages between Nazism and racial discrimination, Russia has been able to attract allies in countries sensitive to colonial legacies and apartheid by making opposition to its initiatives morally unacceptable. These tactics were widely employed during the Cold War, but they have returned in force. This paper offers a systematic study of Soviet and Russian anti-Nazi initiatives from 1946 to 2022. It provides an empirical analysis of the factors behind support for international resolutions combating Nazism, examines the discursive coalition around this norm in the United Nations, and compares Russia’s efforts across other international organizations (IOs). The findings show how authoritarian regimes project norms and have important implications for our understanding of ideology in international relations. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Dictatorships in IOs, ideology, counternorms, Russia, United Nations, text-as-data |
| Date: | 2023–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7w8504tk |
| By: | Ananyev, Maxim (University of Melbourne); Poyker, Mikhail (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Inmates' informal code regulates their behavior and attitudes. We investigate whether prisons contribute to the spread of these norms to the general population using an exogenous shock of the Soviet amnesty of 1953, which released 1.2 million prisoners. We document the spread of prison norms in localities exposed to the released ex-prisoners. As inmates' code also ascribes low status to persons perceived as passive homosexuals, in the long run, we find effects on anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes, homophobic slurs on social media, and discriminatory attitudes. |
| Keywords: | incarceration, prison culture, russia, homosexuals |
| JEL: | J15 M14 N34 N44 P00 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17138 |
| By: | Ivana Capozza |
| Abstract: | Romania’s clean energy transition needs to accelerate for the country to decarbonise its economy by mid-century. Following an impressive decline from the early 1990s, emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped falling in recent years. Fossil fuel dependence, an increasing and ageing vehicle fleet and poorly insulated buildings increase energy use and carbon intensity. Moving away from fossil fuels in Romania calls primarily for more renewables; shifting to electricity in transport and buildings; substantial energy savings; and improved transport systems. This paper identifies policies that would help bring about these changes cost effectively, while minimising the socio-economic impact of the transition and contributing to improving people’s quality of life. The policy package should include institutional reforms and public investment, regulatory changes, financial support and consistent price signals to encourage private abatement actions. Measures to alleviate the impact of the net-zero transition on vulnerable communities and to adapt to climate change are also required. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, clean energy transition, climate policy, energy efficient buildings, energy taxes and subsidies, environment, just transition, Romania, sustainable transport |
| JEL: | H23 H30 O13 O18 Q32 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q48 Q54 Q58 R11 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1812-en |
| By: | KRÓL Artur; MYCK Michał; TRZCIŃSKI Kajetan |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Poland is prepared by the PL EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138006 |
| By: | Lusine Ivanov-Davtyan |
| Abstract: | How does exposure to a war outside the immediate conflict area influence the educational performance of pupils, and how does this collective impact differ from that of direct family exposure? To address these questions, I link individual-level victim data from the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war with individual school records from periods before and after the conflict. Capitalizing on the lottery-based draft system of Armenian Army and using constructed individual-level data, I find that exposure to war-related casualties at the school level (collective affectedness) prompts a shift in performance towards subjects that increase options for migration and safer living conditions. This results in decreased proficiency in native language and history studies. In contrast, family-level affectedness shapes patriotism and group identity, leading to improved performance in cultural and homeland-related subjects. These findings demonstrate how war affects schooling trajectories, potentially leading to long-term economic effects even decades later. |
| Keywords: | Education, Schooling Performance, Localized War, Violent Conflict |
| JEL: | F51 I25 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp784 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Kilic, Talip (World Bank); Abanokova, Kseniya (World Bank); Carletto, Calogero (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Accurate poverty measurement relies on household consumption data, but such data are often inadequate, outdated or display inconsistencies over time in poorer countries. To address these data challenges, we employ survey-to-survey imputation to produce estimates for several poverty indicators including headcount poverty, extreme poverty, poverty gap, near-poverty rates, as well as mean consumption levels and the entire consumption distribution. Analyzing 22 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Vietnam, we find encouraging results. Adding either household utility expenditures or food expenditures to basic imputation models with household-level demographic, employment, and asset variables could improve the probability of imputation accuracy between 0.1 and 0.4. Adding predictors from geospatial data could further increase imputation accuracy. The analysis also shows that a larger time interval between surveys is associated with a lower probability of predicting some poverty indicators, and that a better imputation model goodness-of-fit (R2) does not necessarily help. The results offer cost-saving inputs into future survey design. |
| Keywords: | consumption, poverty, survey-to-survey imputation, household surveys, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17136 |
| By: | Boza, István (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Reizer, Balázs (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | A main driver of the gender wage gap is that women earn a lower firm-specific wage premium than men. We document the role of flexible wage components in driving both within-firm and between-firm gender differences in firm premia. For this purpose, we link wage survey data on performance payments and overtime to an administrative linked employer-employee dataset from Hungary. We find that the gender gap in firm premia is negligible at firms that do not pay either performance payments or overtime, while it is more than 11 percent at firms where all employees receive performance- and overtime payments. These patterns are also present when we control for differences in the labor productivity of firms or after composition differences are accounted for using AKM models. Finally, a decomposition exercise shows that performance payments and overtime payments contribute 60 percent to the gender gap in firm premia and 25 percent to the overall gender gap. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, bargaining, sorting, overtime, performance payments |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17125 |
| By: | MIKLOŠ Martin |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Slovak Republic is prepared by the SK EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138001 |
| By: | MILITARU Eva; POPESCU Madalina; VASILESCU Denisa; CRISTESCU Amalia |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Romania is prepared by the RO EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138004 |
| By: | HEGEDŰS Péter; SZIVÓS Péter; CSATHÓ Ábel; TOMKA Zsofia |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Hungary is prepared by the HU EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138014 |
| By: | TOSHEVA Ekaterina; TASSEVA Iva; DIMITROVA Desislava; DRAGANOV Dragomir; BOSHNAKOV Venelin; PESHEV Peter |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Bulgaria is prepared by the BG EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138025 |
| By: | PLUTA Anna |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Latvia is prepared by the LV EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138009 |
| By: | URBAN Ivica; BEZEREDI Slavko |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Croatia is prepared by the HR EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138015 |
| By: | KALÍŠKOVÁ Klára; MUNICH Daniel; PAVEL Jan |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Czechia is prepared by the CZ EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138023 |
| By: | TOIM Kelly; LAURIMÄE Merilen; VORK Andres |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Estonia is prepared by the EE EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138020 |
| By: | KUMP Nataša; KALAR Barbara |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Slovenia is prepared by the SI EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138002 |
| By: | CIZAUSKAITE Ausra; NAVICKĖ Jekaterina |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Lithuania is prepared by the LT EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138011 |