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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Huterer, Manfred; Sahm, Astrid |
| Abstract: | Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also called the sovereignty of Belarus into question. The country served as a launching pad for the attack, thus becoming a co-aggressor. However, relations between Minsk and Moscow changed the longer the war has lasted. Belarusian leader Lukashenka has increasingly acted like a self-confident war service provider toward Kremlin boss Putin. At the same time, he has been able to avoid any direct military involvement and has sought to preserve his chance at serving as a mediator. Nevertheless, Belarus' structural dependence on Russia has continued to increase in many areas. Right now, this gradual loss of sovereignty can still be reversed. In order for this to remain the situation, the EU and Germany must not write the country off. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, Russia, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenka, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Union State of Russia and Belarus |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:299528&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The dynamics of Austria’s economic relations with the EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – and with Russia have deviated from those of the EU in several important ways. During the decade preceding the war in Ukraine, Austrian trade with the region generally developed less dynamically than EU trade, as trade with countries that did not sign Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) with the EU – unsurprisingly –underperformed. However, Austrian investments in Russia have shown greater resilience than EU investments, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Austria ranks third from bottom among EU member states for the share of companies that have completely withdrawn from Russia or are in the process of doing so, probably explaining in part why its exports to Russia have suffered much less than EU exports. In addition, chemicals, including pharmaceuticals, which have been little affected by sanctions, account for a large share of Austrian exports. Also, unlike the EU, Austria’s dependence on Russian natural gas remains high, partly for geographical reasons and also because of contractual obligations between Austria’s ÖMV and Russia’s Gazprom. Austria would be well advised to build on its record of economic involvement in the EaP region and capitalise on the new opportunities offered by the improved EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. |
| Keywords: | EU Eastern Partnership countries, Austria, EU, trade, investment, gas dependence |
| JEL: | F14 F21 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:81&r= |
| By: | Vlasiuk, Volodymyr; Cooper, Luke; Milakovsky, Brian |
| Abstract: | How the state is interacting with markets is a key consideration in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. A critical question concerns whether the state can develop the capacity to correct market failures in order to support the security and wellbeing of the population and answer the challenges of the on-going war. This research report seeks to address this question by investigating the relationship between market and state in the contemporary Ukrainian economy. The report is published as part of a collaborative partnership between Ukraine Industry Expertise and PeaceRep’s Ukraine programme. It builds upon previous work that demonstrated how Ukraine had a range of in-country assets that could be mobilised to ‘insource the recovery’ through the adoption of policies designed to support and maximise domestic output. |
| JEL: | E6 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123813&r= |
| By: | Katarzyna Saczuk (SGH Warsaw School of Economics; University of Warsaw; Narodowy Bank Polski); Olga Zajkowska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economy; Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | In 2020-2021, several methodological changes were introduced in the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which caused disruptions in data analysis and inference: the Covid-19 pandemic forced a change in the data collection method, and from the beginning of 2021, planned changes related to the harmonisation of social surveys in the EU were introduced (changes in the subject and object coverage of the survey). The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the methodological changes on the measurement of labour force participation in Poland. Based on the analysis of quarterly LFS data over the period Q1 2019. - Q4 2021, it is shown that the change in the recruitment and interviewing method to CATI and the change in the rotation scheme had a significant impact on survey selection, attrition, propensity to participate in person and thus also on the sample structure, and that the problems of survey selection are not fully compensated for in the process of generalising the results from the sample to the general population. By treating the change in survey method as a natural experiment, it has been shown that the method of recruitment affects the underlying results of the survey. Over the period Q3 2020 - Q3 2021, the changes introduced to the LFS together increased the estimates of the participation rate by around 0.6 percentage points, the employment rate by around 0.1 percentage points and the unemployment rate by around 0.9 percentage points relative to the pre-pandemic measures. If the effect of the inconsistent classification of some people as working in subsistence agriculture is also taken into account, the overestimation of the participation rate under the new methodology would be around 0.9 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | labour force participation, BAEL, surveys, methodological changes, panel attrition, non-response, rotational panels, measurement errors, LFS |
| JEL: | C81 C83 J21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2024-11&r= |
| By: | Aidt, Toke; Asatryan, Zareh; Badalyan, Lusine |
| Abstract: | Many governments operate consumer debt relief programs, often timed to match the election cycle, but their political effects are not well understood. We ask if debt relief can influence elections in democracies. Our motivating exercise is the Biden administration's promise to relieve student debt. We utilize quasi-experimental variation generated by another very large debt relief program enacted in the Republic of Georgia that, similar to USA, affected every sixth voter. We estimate that the program helped the incumbent candidate win that election, and that its effects persisted. Overall, we show how economic power can translate into political power in democracies. |
| Keywords: | Consumer debt relief, US student debt, distributive politics, vote buying, elections |
| JEL: | G51 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:300009&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Quang Khai |
| Abstract: | In the context of emerging countries trying to attract foreign investors, building governance strategies and risk management of firms is an increasing concern. This study investigates the impact of financial flexibility strategies on the risk management effectiveness of firms and mechanism of these impacts by focusing on Vietnamese listed firms by applying the fixed effect and system GMM methods on a sample of 635 Vietnamese listed firms during the 2010–2021 period to derive empirical models under the high risk-high return approach. We also applied robustness tests to ensure that the results are reliable. We also investigate the level of risk management effectiveness among these firms during the 2010–2021 period. We found that financial flexibility strategies negatively impact risk management effectiveness of firms through reducing both firm risk and firm performance. Furthermore, we found that the degree of risk management effectiveness differs between low- and high-risk firms in Vietnam, with low-risk firms displaying more effective risk management compared to high-risk firms. Our research shows that financial flexibility strategies are not conducive to risk management effectiveness; however, firms can control the impact of flexibility strategies on risk management by controlling firm performance and risk. |
| Keywords: | financial flexibility, risk management effectiveness, listed firm, Vietnam |
| JEL: | G13 G18 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121162&r= |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to describe the economy of the Republic of Moldova from a neo-classical perspective, with an emphasis on the opening of the economy in a neo-Keynesian context. It was concluded that from the point of view of different indicators, the optimal model of accumulations to the state budget based on the Laffer curve is different: GDP-25 %, Inflation 30 %, Interest rate 20 %, unemployment rate 35 %, budget deficit 40 %, public debt 15% and exchange rate 44 % (maximum, which corresponds to the Nordic model of economic development). The research methods used by the author include identifying the trend of economic development, diagnostic analysis, scientifically based economic forecasting, ARIMA technique, extrapolation as regression analysis of time series The scientific and methodological approaches described in this work will serve as scientific support in the process of developing the scenarios of economic evolution. |
| Keywords: | Laffer curve, GDP, inflation, interest rate, unemployment rate, budget deficit, public debt, exchange rate, extrapolation, ARIMA technique, Student test, Fisher. |
| JEL: | H3 H30 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121133&r= |
| By: | Martin Huber; Kevin Kloiber; Lukas Laffers |
| Abstract: | We propose a test for the identification of causal effects in mediation and dynamic treatment models that is based on two sets of observed variables, namely covariates to be controlled for and suspected instruments, building on the test by Huber and Kueck (2022) for single treatment models. We consider models with a sequential assignment of a treatment and a mediator to assess the direct treatment effect (net of the mediator), the indirect treatment effect (via the mediator), or the joint effect of both treatment and mediator. We establish testable conditions for identifying such effects in observational data. These conditions jointly imply (1) the exogeneity of the treatment and the mediator conditional on covariates and (2) the validity of distinct instruments for the treatment and the mediator, meaning that the instruments do not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment or mediator) and are unconfounded given the covariates. Our framework extends to post-treatment sample selection or attrition problems when replacing the mediator by a selection indicator for observing the outcome, enabling joint testing of the selectivity of treatment and attrition. We propose a machine learning-based test to control for covariates in a data-driven manner and analyze its finite sample performance in a simulation study. Additionally, we apply our method to Slovak labor market data and find that our testable implications are not rejected for a sequence of training programs typically considered in dynamic treatment evaluations. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.13826&r= |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Public finance is a vital area of study that helps governments make informed decisions about how to raise and allocate funds to finance their activities, ultimately contributing to the well-being of society. Oil-rich developing and emerging economies present a distinct set of public finance realities. While they may enjoy substantial revenue streams from oil exports, this dependence creates unique challenges. This fact should have stimulated academic research to thoroughly analyze public finance, but it seems that there is not enough work in Azerbaijan that accurately captures the current challenges and proposes sound policy solutions in public finance sphere. Most of the studies are practice-oriented and written by international organizations (i.e., policy briefs, expert opinions) rather than local experts who could communicate them to a wider societal audience. This discussion paper draws some conclusions from the expert interviews on the problems and challenges in the field of public finance, the quality of research conducted in this field and future directions in the field of public finance in the case study of Azerbaijan. Briefly, the experts pointed out that the current state of research in the field of public finance is inadequate and highlighted some key problems such as inefficiency, transparency and dependence on the extractive industry in public finance. This discussion paper also provides some possible future research directions in the field of public finance in relation to Azerbaijan. This paper is not a conclusive study, but a conceptualization of the mentioned direction in the literature. The findings should be in the interest of policy makers and researchers working intensively on public finance issues in Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijani economy, expert consultation, fiscal policy, macroeconomic stability, public finance, public policy |
| JEL: | H11 O10 P10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:298402&r= |
| By: | Khamitkhanova, Aiganym; Paul, Anju Mary (New York University Abu Dhabi) |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan scored 5.13 out of 10 in the GCPI, placing it in the “Maturing” band of the Index. Its score of 5.40 in Sub-Index A indicates that despite existing financial and employment protections during pregnancy and maternity leave, there are areas that require improvement, such as paternity and dependent care leave policies, and mother-friendly workplace policies. With a score of 4.87 in Sub-Index B, Kazakhstan shows some level of support for domestic workers. However, there are substantial gaps in ensuring fair employment, decent working and living conditions, labor rights, and protections for forced domestic workers. |
| Date: | 2024–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cmqke&r= |
| By: | Campbell, Douglas; Brodeur, Abel; Johannesson, Magnus; Kopecky, Joseph; Lusher, Lester; Tsoy, Nikita |
| Abstract: | Pop-Eleches and Urquiola (2013) apply a regression discontinuity to the Romanian secondary school system, and notably find that (a) students who go to a better school get higher scores on an exam used for university admission, (b) parents of students who get into a better school help their kids less with homework, and (c) kids who go to a slightly better school report more negative interactions with peers. We first reproduce all regression tables in Pop-Eleches and Urquiola (2013), and then test for robustness by unstacking the data, multi-way clustering, altering the cutoffs, altering control variables, and conducting influential analysis. Overall, we find the results for finding (a), (b), and (c) are robust in 100%, 42%, and 60% of the robustness checks we ran, and the t/z scores were on average 93%, 69%, and 92% as large as the original study. |
| Keywords: | Education, Peer Effects, Economics of Education |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:133&r= |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | This discussion paper examines the key themes and findings from four major events and three pieces of media content on sustainable development, climate finance and environmental policy. Direct observation and structured notes were used as the main methods. The analysis begins with the webinar “Bridge Building in Baku, ” which highlighted the need for improved quality and quantity of climate finance to support developing countries in their efforts to reduce carbon emissions. It then discusses the comparative perspectives on environmental issues between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, highlighting the need for renewable energy generation to offset environmental deficits. The paper also examines the event “COP29: Opportunities and Challenges for Climate Action, ” which focused on international cooperation and learning from global best practices to address environmental challenges. Finally, the discussion at the event “Green and Circular Economy in the Turkic World” emphasizes the importance of reducing resource dependency and improving energy efficiency in Turkish states. Policy suggestions include creating financial incentives for green technologies, improving public education on sustainability and promoting international cooperation to effectively address environmental challenges. This paper aims to map the intellectual landscape of climate finance and sustainable development and provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in global climate action based primarily on COP29. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijani economy, climate events, climate change, COP29, renewable energy, sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q20 Q28 Q54 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:298401&r= |