|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the global economic consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war over a four-month period from December 2021 to March 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. The study used the Pearson correlation and two-stage least square regression methods to assess the impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy. It was observed that stock prices plunged on the day of the invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic jointly led to a significant increase in the world price of food and crude oil. The rise in the world food price index after the invasion was driven by a significant increase in the price of dairy and oils. The rise in inflation in Russia and Ukraine after the invasion was followed by a rise in inflation in countries that imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and in countries that were not involved in the conflict in any way. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, War, Inflation, Crisis |
| JEL: | E65 E66 O5 O52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120781&r= |
| By: | Bičáková, Alena (CERGE-EI); Jurajda, Štepán (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through 'high' and 'low' phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during 'high' pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, political accountability |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16939&r= |
| By: | Michał Gradzewicz (Narodowy Bank Polski); Janusz Jabłonowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Michał Sasiela (Narodowy Bank Polski); Zbigniew Żółkiewski (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to assess the impact on the Polish economy of energy price shocks arising after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We computed both the impact of the energy shocks (separately for gas, oil and coal prices) on the real side of the economy, and the pass-through of energy prices to the overall price level. The former part of the analysis was simulated using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Polish economy while the price effects of the shocks were simulated using a dual Leontief price model. Additionally, the price model was augmented with the mechanism of nominal wage adjustment suggested by the theory. This methodological novelty is our original contribution to empirical economics. Our simulations indicate that the price shock for all energy goods of the magnitude observed in 2022 resulted in a decrease in GDP of about 2.9% relative to the baseline solution. Moreover, we document a strong pro-inflationary effect of rising energy prices. After a combined shock to energy prices the consumption deflator increases by 10.3% (when we include the spreading the price increases across the industries), but the effect is simulated at 15.4%, when we account for an additional nominal wage adjustments (ensuring no real wage changes). We show that due to the differences in forward and backward propagation of shocks, the oil price shock had the strongest impact on real aggregates, whereas prices were hit the strongest by the gas price shock. |
| Keywords: | CGE, dual Leontief model, energy shocks, price pass-through |
| JEL: | C67 C68 D58 E16 E17 E31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:369&r= |
| By: | Balma, Lacina; Heidland, Tobias; Jävervall, Sebastian; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Mukasa, Adamon N.; Woldemichael, Andinet |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has threatened global grain supplies as it reduces production and exports while increasing trade costs. While the overall share of Africa's trade with Ukraine and Russia is small, the concentration of imports in products such as wheat, other grains, and fertilizer is critical to food security. This paper investigates the long‐term impacts of the conflict on grain imports and prices in Africa. We use a long‐run general equilibrium trade model to study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: (1) a heavily reduced Ukrainian production of wheat and other grains; (2) rising trade costs with Ukraine and Russia due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea and the sanctions against trading with Russia; and (3) an outright ban on Russian grain export. The model simulations show that the conflict severely affects grain imports, raising local prices for wheat and other grains, with especially strong effects in high import‐dependent countries. That creates risks for food security in some African countries. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food insecurity, food prices, grain, trade, trade disruptions, war, wheat |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:294185&r= |
| By: | Michele Di Maio; Patricia Justino; Valerio Leone Sciabolazza; Cecilia Nardi |
| Abstract: | We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. |
| Keywords: | War, Commodity shocks, Trade, Political violence, Agricultural market performance, Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-30&r= |
| By: | Delia Sanchez Trancon; Allison Woodruff; Xavier Leflaive; Lylah Davies; Sigurjon Agustsson |
| Abstract: | This report outlines results from the initial pilot-testing of a Scorecard to assess the enabling environment for investment in water security, referred to as "the Scorecard”. Developed in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank and partners, the Scorecard aims to identify conditions for attracting and maintaining investment in water security. The report outlines the Scorecard's rationale, scoring methodology, and presents its main components. It also provides results from seven Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Uzbekistan, and Sri Lanka. Armenia's findings from a subsequent Eastern European pilot test are also incorporated. This is the first in a sub-set of working papers within the Environment Working Paper series presenting research on the enabling environment for investment in water security. It marks the beginning of a process to apply the tool and support policy reforms. The report refrains from offering policy recommendations, focusing on testing the scorecard's ability to assess conditions to attract and sustain investing in water security. For an illustration of country-specific policy recommendations, please refer to the forthcoming Environment Working Paper “Enabling environment for investment in water security: Pilot test in the EU’s Eastern Partner Countries - Armenia case study”. |
| Keywords: | Asia, data, enabling environment, investment, Pacific, policy, public and private finance, regulation, sanitation, tool, wastewater, water resource management, water security, water supply |
| JEL: | H23 H41 H51 H54 L32 L38 L50 L95 L98 Q25 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:235-en&r= |
| By: | Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia |
| Abstract: | In less developed economies the allocation of factor inputs to more productive farms is often hindered. To analyze how distortions to factor reallocation affect farm dynamics and agricultural productivity, we develop a model of heterogeneous farms that make cropping choices and invest in productivity improvements. We calibrate the model using detailed farm-level panel data from Vietnam, exploiting regional differences in agricultural institutions and outcomes. We focus on south Vietnam and quantify the effect of higher measured distortions in the North on farm choices and agricultural productivity. We find that the higher distortions in north Vietnam reduce agricultural productivity by 41%, accounting for 61% of the observed 2.5-fold difference between regions. Moreover, two-thirds of the productivity loss is driven by farms' choice of lower productivity crops and reductions in productivity-enhancing investment, which more than doubles the productivity loss from static misallocation. |
| Keywords: | Farm dynamics, productivity, size, distortions, misallocation, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-775&r= |
| By: | HARDING Richard; NAUWELAERS Claire |
| Abstract: | The aim of this report is to investigate the potential for harnessing key features of Transformative Innovation to improve the design and the implementation of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies, based on empirical analyses. The study draws on the conceptual framework on this question previously defined for the JRC (European Commission, 2024), and the methodology for case studies articulated in the same report. The case study research comprises overall 14 case study reports covering 16 different territories from across the EU and beyond, casing various institutional contexts, a variety of biogeographical regions within different climate risks, different ranges of population sizes, and representing a diversity of approaches to CCA and transformative innovation. The framework takes the form of an analytical grid, structured into seven sections, each of them representing a key feature of the ‘transformative innovation’ approach where the features are understood as essential conditions for the design and implementation of CCA strategies with this high level of ambition. Each section sets out the main question(s) to be addressed in relation to its respective transformative innovation feature. This Report provides the findings for Gorenjska region in Slovenia, as at October 2023 and is the result of a collaboration between the Joint Research Centre (JRC), DG CLIMA and DG RTD. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc137320&r= |
| By: | Giulia Aliprandi (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Thijs Busschots (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Carlos Oliveira (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This note examines the global prevalence and distribution of shell companies, which are often used for illicit financial activities like tax evasion. Using business registry data for over 200 jurisdictions, including individual US states, we construct an indicator of shell company prevalence based on the number of registered companies per capita. We find that known tax havens like the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands have extremely high rates of company presence per adult. Zooming in on Europe reveals Estonia as a lesser-known host for shell companies, besides flagging known conduit countries like Luxembourg and Cyprus. A unique decomposition of US states also shows Delaware and Wyoming are potentially hosting a large number of shell companies. Indicative for the role of shell companies in international tax evasion, our shell company prevalence indicator correlates with jurisdiction characteristics catering tax evasion, such as low corporate tax rate and aggressive tax treaties. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04563980&r= |