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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Siedler, Thomas (University of Potsdam); Anger, Silke (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Christoph, Bernhard (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Galkiewicz, Agata (University of Potsdam); Margaryan, Shushanik (University of Potsdam); Peter, Frauke (DZHW-German Centre for Research on Higher Education and Science Studies); Sandner, Malte (Technische Hochschule Nürnberg) |
| Abstract: | Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded shortly after the conflict began and applying difference-in-differences (DiD) models over time, we find a significant decline in the outcome after the war started. These findings provide new evidence on how armed conflicts influence social trust and well-being among young people in a country not directly involved in the war. |
| Keywords: | war, trust, social capital, Russia's invasion of Ukraine |
| JEL: | C23 H75 I14 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16921&r=tra |
| By: | Alena Bicakova; Stepan Jurajda |
| Abstract: | We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp778&r=tra |
| By: | Rodolfo G. Campos; Benedikt Heid; Jacopo Timini |
| Abstract: | The Cold War was the defining episode of geopolitical fragmentation in the twentieth century. Trade between East and West across the Iron Curtain (a symbolical and physical barrier dividing Europe into two distinct areas) was restricted, but the severity of these restrictions varied over time. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the Iron Curtain and show how the difficulty of trading across the Iron Curtain fluctuated throughout the Cold War. Using a novel dataset on trade between the two economic blocs and a quantitative trade model, we find that while the Iron Curtain at its height represented a tariff equivalent of 48% in 1951, trade between East and West gradually became easier until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Despite the easing of trade restrictions, we estimate that the Iron Curtain roughly halved East-West trade flows and caused substantial welfare losses in the Eastern bloc countries that persisted until the end of the Cold War. Conversely, the Iron Curtain led to an increase in intra-bloc trade, especially in the Eastern bloc, which outpaced the integration of Western Europe in the run-up to the formation of the European Union. |
| Keywords: | international trade, Cold War, Iron Curtain, geopolitical fragmentation, trade costs of borders |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N74 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11057&r=tra |
| By: | Parviainen, Sinikka |
| Abstract: | This brief assesses the state of the Ukrainian economy two years since Russia's full-scale invasion. After a devastating 2022, Ukraine's economy in 2023 proved surprisingly resilient, thanks in part to its foreign partners. Decelerating inflation and a managed exchange rate provided macroeconomic stability, while re-secured shipping routes in the Black Sea improved Ukraine's export performance. Despite these achievements, the problems of 2022 began to re-emerge in 2024 in Ukraine's fight for survival. Besides the drying up of foreign funding and armaments supplies and the widening mismatch in labor force allocation, Ukraine requires more long-term, non-repayable assistance, greater support for returning Ukrainians, and reduced state pressure on private businesses. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, economy, recovery, reconstruction, war, Russia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:290388&r=tra |
| By: | Denisa M. Sologon; Karina Doorley; Cathal O’Donoghue |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the gender-specific distributional impact of the recent cost-of-living crisis in six European countries using the Household Budget Survey to assess the degree of regressivity (affecting lower income households more) or progessivity (affecting higher income households more) of inflation experienced by households between April 2021 and July 2023. Despite a growing literature on the distributional impact of inflation, there is limited evidence on gender differentials. We innovate by applying distributional measures and a decomposition method adapted from the taxation literature extended with a gender dimension to assess gender differences in inflation regressivity or progressivity, isolate the average inflation rate from the inflation structure effect and identify the drivers of regressivity/progressivity by broad commodity groups (food, heating/electricity, motor fuels, other goods and services). The findings highlight the greater regressive inflation faced by female-headed households compared to men in middle-income countries like Portugal, Poland and Hungary and high-income countries like Ireland. In Germany overall inflation has a neutral impact on women, whereas Finland stands out with a progressive inflation, more pronounced for female-headed households. Consistent across countries, the burden of food and heating/electricity inflation is disproportionately borne by low-income households. Heating/electricity inflation has a larger regressive contribution to overall inflation for female-headed households in all countries, whereas for food this holds only in Poland and Hungary. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies to address potential inequalities arising from differential consumption patterns and protect the most vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | distributional effect and gender; inflation and gender; regressive inflation; progressive inflation |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-02&r=tra |
| By: | Daniel L. Chen; Lubomir Cingl; Arnaud Philippe; Michal Soltes |
| Abstract: | We examine the perceptions and behavior of inmates, revealing insights that challenge existing theories of criminal behavior. Using comprehensive surveys, we contrast 816 Czech inmates’ perceptions of sanction risks, interpersonal and institutional trust, impulsivity, and beliefs about post-release reintegration with those of the general population. Our findings reveal that inmates perceive higher risks of sanctions but are not more accurate about these risks. They have lower trust in other inmates, lower trust in the justice system, and exhibit less impulsivity than non-inmates. We observed limited evolution of responses for individuals surveyed twice, one year apart. Impulsivity and a diminished perception of the risk of sanctions are positively associated with misbehavior among inmates in prison. These results partly support theories of procedural justice and homo oeconomicus but challenge the notion of criminal brotherhood. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp779&r=tra |
| By: | OECD; Orsetta Causa; Maxime Nguyen; Emilia Soldani |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel classification of high-polluting occupations for a large sample of European countries. Unlike previous efforts in the literature, the classification exploits country-level data on air polluting emission intensity by industry. The country-level data allows to capture important cross-country differences, due to differences in technology and in production focus. Applying the new classification to European Labour Force Survey data shows that, on average across the countries covered, about 4% of workers are employed in high-polluting jobs, ranging from 9% in Czechia and the Slovak Republic to around 2% in Austria. These shares do not exhibit any clear decreasing trend over the past decade. High-polluting jobs are unequally distributed, being over-represented among men, workers with lower and medium educational attainment and those living in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | air polluting emissions, classification, climate change, green transition, high-polluting jobs, labour markets |
| JEL: | J21 Q51 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1795-en&r=tra |
| By: | Kien Ngoc Do (FTU - Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam); Huong Nguyen Giang (FTU - Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam); Le Huy (FTU - Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam); Nguyen Kim Phuong Thuy (FTU - Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | This study disentangles the relationship between GVC participation and the technical efficiency of SMEs in Vietnam. We combine panel data obtained from the GSO Enterprise Census survey of SMEs in Vietnam including 567, 866 enterprises observations from 2015 to 2018. Regarding global value chain participation (GVC), TiVA databases by OECD are used to track GVC integration at sectoral level. We employ Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to gauge the relationship between a firm's technical efficiency and GVC participation in two modes of participation: backward integration and forward integration. The findings show the positive impacts of backward participation in rising technical efficiency levels. However, SMEs in sectors with deeper forward participation tend to have low technical efficiency. We find the heterogeneity in firm efficiency regarding firm-specific factors and location. |
| Keywords: | GVC participation, SMEs, Technical efficiency |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04528712&r=tra |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel; Akramov, Kamiljon; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification continues to receive interest among developing country stakeholders as a viable option for achieving dual goals of poverty reduction and food/nutrition security improvements. Assessing the effectiveness of this strategy is also essential in countries like Tajikistan. We attempt to enrich the evidence base in this regard. We assess the linkages between household-level agricultural diversification and dietary diversity (both household- and individual-levels) using unique panel samples of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province. Using difference-in-difference propensity-score methods and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher agricultural diversification together with greater overall production per worker and land at the household level leads to higher dietary diversity, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Typology analyses and crop-specific analyses suggest that vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products and eggs are particularly important commodities for which a farmer’s own production contributes to dietary diversity improvement. Furthermore, decomposition exercises within the subsistence farming framework suggest that nutritional returns and costs of agricultural diversification vary across households, and expected nutritional returns may be partly driving the adoption of agricultural diversification. In other words, households’ decisions to diversify agriculture may be partly driven by potential nutritional benefits associated with enhanced direct on-farm access to diverse food items rather than farm income growth alone. Our findings underscore the importance of supporting household farm diversification in Tajikistan to support improved nutrition intake, especially among those living in remote areas. In a low-income setting with limited local employment opportunities that is vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, this will likely continue to be one of the most straightforward and realistic paths to improving household’s nutrition resilience. |
| Keywords: | dietary diversity; food security; nutrition; propensity score matching; agriculture; modelling; Asia; Central Asia; Tajikistan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2249&r=tra |
| By: | Hazans, Mihails; Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh; Upenieks, Jānis; Žabko, Oksana |
| Abstract: | Education scholars and human geographers have extensively studied spatial disparities in access to secondary education, both in developing countries and in advanced economies. However, very few studies have analysed access to specific types of secondary education, particularly programs oriented toward Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM-oriented programs). This paper aims to fill this gap using rich geodata and administrative data on Latvia. An overview of the supply of STEM-related skills in the Nordic-Baltic region suggests that in this regard Latvia performs the worst in terms of both recent university graduates and working-age population in general. We show that 43 percent of youth aged 15 to 18 cannot reach a STEM program within 30 minutes by walking. Furthermore, estimates of earnings differentials by access time, between program types, and between two modes of travel suggest that children from wealthier families have better access to STEM programs. More densely populated settlements feature better access to STEM programs, as well as better exam results in STEM disciplines, while language exam results do not show such a pattern. |
| Keywords: | Access to secondary education, STEM-oriented programs, regional disparities, geographic information system |
| JEL: | I24 I28 R53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120646&r=tra |