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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; David Rapson; Burkhard Schipper |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. In contrast, the price cap deprived Russia of the financial resources it spent on assembling a “shadow” fleet of tankers, but its effect on the Russian oil export price was negligible once the adoption of the price cap had facilitated the use of Western services to transport Russian oil to Asia. |
| Keywords: | Russia; oil; sanctions; embargo; price caps |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:98000&r=tra |
| By: | Charalambakis, Evangelos; Teppa, Federica; Tsiortas, Athanasios |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant. JEL Classification: C23, D12, D14, G51 |
| Keywords: | consumer expectations survey, consumer finance, credit applications, liquidity constraints |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242922&r=tra |
| By: | Marta Kahancová; Simona Brunnerová; Barbora Holubová; Monika Martišková |
| Abstract: | This report is part of the EC-funded research project DEFEN-CE: Social Dialogue in Defence of Vulnerable Groups in Post-COVID-19 Labour Markets (VS/2021/0196). It scrutinizes how social partners influenced COVID-19-related policy responses towards vulnerable groups in the labour market, and whether this experience created opportunities for strengthening social dialogue in general. The empirical focus is on Czechia and Slovakia as representatives of embedded neoliberal countries. This means liberalizing labour market policies during their economic transition starting in the 1990s, but at the same time, anchoring some institutional mechanisms of policy-making, including social dialogue at the national level. The analysis is based on new empirical data in two dimensions: primary data on policy measures relevant for the vulnerable groups in the labour market, categorized in a standard database of the most important COVID-19 measures relevant for vulnerable groups. 19 original semi-structured interviews with employer organizations, trade unions, governments, and NGOs in Czechia and Slovakia, implemented in 2022-2023. |
| Date: | 2023–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:57&r=tra |
| By: | Huynh, Cong Minh; Nguyen, Phan Kim Han |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of brand awareness, brand image, and perceived value on customer loyalty within the milk industry in Vietnam. The research concentrates on renowned milk brands in Vietnam, such as Vinamilk, Dutch Lady, Nutifood, Nestle, TH true milk, Abbott, and Fami. The results from a sample of 141 respondents reveal that each of these factors positively influences customer loyalty. Notably, perceived value emerges as the most influential factor, with brand image and brand awareness following in strength. These findings offer valuable insights for professionals and researchers in related business domains. |
| Keywords: | Brand awareness, Brand image, Perceived value, Customer loyalty, Milk industry |
| JEL: | L81 M31 M37 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120346&r=tra |
| By: | BORNUKOVA Kateryna (European Commission - JRC); HERNANDEZ MARTIN Adrian (European Commission - JRC); PICOS Fidel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The EU committed to meet the poverty reduction target set in the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan, which entails to reduce the number of children at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 5 million by 2030. The paper assesses the impact of child-contingent cash support in EU-27 in 2019-2022 on child poverty and inequality and sheds light on the role this kind of support plays, or could further play, when it comes to meeting the 2030 child poverty target. We use the microsimulation model EUROMOD to identify child-contingent cash support and find significant variation in average support per child across EU-27, ranging from 3.2% of GDP per capita in Ireland to 12% of GDP per capita in Austria. Correspondingly, the impact of child-contingent cash support on reducing child at-risk-of-poverty rates varies from 4 p.p. in Portugal to 16 p.p. in Slovakia. The inequality-reducing effect is highly correlated with poverty reduction. With rare exceptions, countries rely on child benefits as a primary source of child-contingent cash support, as opposed to tax-based support. Non-poor households receive over 50% of total child-contingent cash support in most EU countries. Means-tested benefits, while better targeted to impoverished households, do not always provide enough support to lift them above the poverty line. We do not observe correlation between child-contingent cash support, other benefits, and in-kind child support. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202402&r=tra |
| By: | Yuan, Mingqing |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate investment by employing the two-step system generalized method of moments approach and panel data from 4619 listed firms in China spanning 2003–2022. We comprehensively analyze EPU’s impact on various timelines of investment and show non-linear dynamics within the EPU–investment nexus. Our findings suggest that EPU negatively affects total and short-term investments, but positively influences long-term investment. Total and short-term investments demonstrate a U-shaped association with EPU, while long-term investment follows an inverted U-shaped pattern. Additionally, we explore the effects of ownership and capital structures. Ownership concentration and institutional ownership amplify the negative impact of EPU on total and short-term investment but alleviate it for long-term investment. State ownership exacerbates the adverse effects on total and short-term investments, with no significant impact on long-term investment. We find that increased debt financing and equity financing intensify the adverse impact of EPU on total and short-term investments, while not significantly affecting long-term investment. This study offers policy implications based on investment horizon, ownership structure, and financial leverage, guiding policymakers and corporate decision-makers. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy uncertainty, Corporate investment, Ownership structure, Capital structure |
| JEL: | C23 D81 E22 G32 P34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119992&r=tra |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico; Kurmanov, Bakhytzhan; Rau, Genadiy; Nigmetov, Kaisar |
| Abstract: | Growing disparities in wealth, well-being, and access to services in Kazakhstan have raised serious concerns among policymakers, especially since the January 2022 protests. This paper evaluates these regional inequalities and presents the findings from Kazakhstan’s inaugural well-being survey. The survey, based on global best practices, involves 4, 032 face-to-face interviews with a diverse sample across all 20 regions, ensuring representation. The resulting indices—the Subjective Well-Being Index and the Regional Well-Being Index—highlight both within-region and between-region disparities. Notably, the indices reveal significant variations in well-being, with certain regions reporting notably lower satisfaction levels across dimensions like trust in institutions, satisfaction with financial and housing conditions, health care and education quality, and personal security perceptions. |
| Keywords: | well-being survey; inequality; Kazakhstan; regional development |
| JEL: | P25 P28 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122341&r=tra |
| By: | JINJI Naoto; OZAWA Shunya |
| Abstract: | We quantify the impact of trade and technology transfer restrictions between the United States (US) and China, technology protection policies in China, and export control laws in both countries through the US-China technological decoupling. To achieve this, we develop a dynamic quantitative general equilibrium trade model that considers foreign direct investment involving technology transfer. Our model comprises the final and intermediate goods sectors and assumes that only the latter utilizes technology capital. Our counterfactual analysis is based on data from 89 countries in 2016. We find that the US, China, and the world as a whole experience welfare losses owing to the US-China decoupling. We further observe that China’s technology protection policy affects not only countries with significant technology transfers from China but also those that rely heavily on technology capital. Countries with larger import shares from the US and China experience more substantial declines in the import of intermediate goods owing to the US and Chinese export control laws. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24041&r=tra |