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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gabor Hajnal (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)); Zsuzsanna Hosszu (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)); Akos Attila Ozoroczy (Student at John Von Neumann University); Balint Dancsik (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | Our study deals with interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on the tightening cycle starting in the middle of 2021. This period is of particular interest for interest rate pass-through, as the sharp hikes by central banks in response to a high inflation environment followed a period characterised by a significant abundance of liquidity. We examine the relationship between interbank and deposit rates using two methods: wavelet transform and error-correction models. Based on the wavelet analysis, we found a weakening of pass-through and a slowdown in the repricing of deposit rates in the current tightening cycle among the countries of the CEE region, particularly in the household segment. Based on the error-correction models, in the sample including the tightening cycle, a weakening in the degree and speed of interest rate pass-through is consistently observed in the Hungarian and Polish deposit markets; and the extent of pass-through of the benchmark rate declined most in the Hungarian household deposit market among the CEE countries. Furthermore, a comparison of the interest rate paths estimated on the basis of the transmission correlations for the period excluding the tightening cycle starting in 2021 and the actual interest rate time series shows that the pass-through of the benchmark rate is the least efficient in the Hungarian household deposit market among the countries of the CEE region. |
| Keywords: | deposit interest rates, interest rate pass-through, wavelet transform, error-correction model |
| JEL: | C51 C69 E32 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:opaper:2024/151&r=tra |
| By: | Agnieszka Fihel (IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers], UW - University of Warsaw); Anna Janicka (UW - University of Warsaw); Marek Okólski (UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years. However, thus far, no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland's transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study indicates the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and provides an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to the historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flow (the in-and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) up until 2060, combined with the United Nations' Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from having a net sending to having a net receiving status around 2030-2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but, in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flow will have non-negligible, though opposite, effects: the outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while the inflows will accelerate population ageing. |
| Keywords: | population ageing international migration migration projection demographic transition migration transition Poland, population ageing, international migration, migration projection, demographic transition, migration transition, Poland |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04488199&r=tra |
| By: | Armin Steinbach |
| Abstract: | The three eastern European states had practically no waiting time before being accepted as candidate countries right after application |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_9841&r=tra |
| By: | IWASAKI, Ichiro; MA, Xinxin; MIZOBATA, Satoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on an empirical analysis of 42, 094 public/private companies in China and 21 Eastern European countries to grasp the actual state and determinants of board gender diversity in emerging market firms. We confirmed that firms in these countries are comparable to those in advanced nations in terms of the prevalence of firms recruiting female board members and the female share of board directorships. Furthermore, in emerging market countries, internal promotions are used as often as, or even more often than, external ones to recruit women to director positions. The results revealed that board composition and ownership structure are important determinants of the gender diversity of the corporate board in emerging market firms. We also found that the effects of these factors vary significantly depending on the country/region and the listing status of firms and that two qualitatively different decision-making stages related to the appointment of women to board positions (i.e., a decision as to whether to appoint any women to the board and a decision as to how many board positions should be reserved for women) have a substantial impact on the empirical results. |
| Keywords: | board gender diversity, board composition, ownership structure, emerging markets, China, Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | D22 G32 J16 K22 L22 P31 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-09&r=tra |
| By: | Marta Pittavino (Department of Management - Venice School of Management, Ca' Foscari University of Venice); Bruno Arpino (Department of Statistical Sciences and Department of Philosophy, Sociology, Education and Applied Psychology, University of Padua); Elena Pirani (Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications 'G. Parenti', Florence) |
| Abstract: | Availability of kin has profound effects on the lives of people, especially in later life when social networks tend to be composed prevalently of family members, and care needs increase. Using data from the last wave (wave 8; 2019-2020) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate the prevalence of kinlessness (i.e., absence of close kin) among older adults aged 65 and more in 27 countries. We consider different definitions of kinlessness, from a less restrictive (i.e., based only on the absence of both partner and children) to a more restrictive one (based also on the absence of grandchildren, parents and siblings). Results show a large variation of kinlessness across countries. The proportion of adults aged 65 and above who lack both a partner and children range between 2-3.5% in Czech Republic, Romania, Israel, and Bulgaria, and more than 8% in Switzerland, Spain, Belgium and Malta. The percentage of older people lacking all considered kin ranges from 0.1 to 4.1%. In addition, in some countries there is a substantial heterogeneity in kinlessness by age and sex. Differences by education are, instead, rare. Understanding the prevalence of older individuals without close kin is critical for policymakers and healthcare providers to design appropriate support systems for this particularly vulnerable group of older people and their possibly unmet care needs. |
| Keywords: | Kin; family; older people; aging; SHARE |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2024_02&r=tra |
| By: | Agnieszka Fihel (IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers], UW - University of Warsaw); Paweł Kaczmarczyk (UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | In the period of post-communist transition, Central Europe witnessed complex and multifaceted mobility processes; permanent outmigration, of an ethnic or labour-related nature, coexisted with temporary, seasonal, or cross-border movements and an increasing influx of foreigners. To study these complex processes, we have chosen to apply a holistic and comprehensive approach, rather than limit conceptual considerations to one theory of migration determinants. We focus on eleven post-communist countries that joined the European Union (EU-11) and on the period extending from around 1989, covering the EU's eastward enlargement, to the present. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we propose a general conceptual framework, based on the aspirations/capabilities approach, to present the main determinants of emigration from this part of the European continent. Second, in relation to each determinant, we formulate research questions postulated by selected theories of international migration and present the evidence, based on existing empirical studies, that addresses these questions. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a broad interpretation of post-transition mobility and pointing to commonly overlooked explanatory factors. We highlight the importance of economic factors that have enhanced and directed the outward migration from the EU-11 to selected EU member states and selected economic sectors; in particular, as regards capabilities, these factors include the lifting of labour market restrictions, high demand in the secondary sector of labour markets, and the roles of migration networks and the migration industry. Emphasis is also placed on aspirational factors, such as labour market failures and the substantial aspirational gap resulting from improvements in high educational attainment in the countries of origin. The aspirations/capabilities approach serves well as a general framework of migration determinants, but its explanatory power is enhanced by reference to other, more specific theories of migration. We show that a combination of the complementary approaches provides a more refined and in-depth picture of migration from the region. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries". |
| Keywords: | Migration theories, Migration determinants, Post-communist transition, Central Europe, European Union |
| Date: | 2023–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04488193&r=tra |
| By: | Pablo Burriel (Banco de España); Mar Delgado-Téllez (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Camila Figueroa (AFI); Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel approach to estimating the contribution of macroeconomic factors to sovereign spreads in the euro area, defined as the spread level consistent with the country’s prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Despite the wealth of papers estimating sovereign spreads, model-dependency and lack of robustness remain key considerations. Accordingly, we propose a “thick modeling” empirical framework, based on the estimation of a wide range of models. We focus on 10-year sovereign bond yields for nine euro area countries, using a sample that covers the period January 2000 to December 2023. Our results show that observed spreads behave in line with macro-financial determinants in “normal” times. Macroeconomic determinants are also able to account for a significant fraction of the observed sovereign spread dynamics in most episodes of financial turbulence, such as the pandemic and the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, we find evidence of some deviations of sovereign spreads from their estimated values during the 2010-2012 euro area sovereign debt crisis. In this period, macroeconomic indicators are able to explain at most 26% of the observed peaks in spreads among non-core countries. |
| Keywords: | sovereign bond spreads, euro area, macroeconomic fundamentals |
| JEL: | E44 O52 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2408&r=tra |
| By: | Sologon, Denisa Maria (LISER (CEPS/INSTEAD)); Doorley, Karina (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); O'Donoghue, Cathal (National University of Ireland, Galway) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the gender-specific distributional impact of the recent cost-of-living crisis in six European countries using the Household Budget Survey to assess the degree of regressivity (affecting lower income households more) or progessivity (affecting higher income households more) of inflation experienced by households between April 2021 and July 2023. Despite a growing literature on the distributional impact of inflation, there is limited evidence on gender differentials. We innovate by applying distributional measures and a decomposition method adapted from the taxation literature extended with a gender dimension to assess gender differences in inflation regressivity or progressivity, isolate the average inflation rate from the inflation structure effect and identify the drivers of regressivity/progressivity by broad commodity groups (food, heating/electricity, motor fuels, other goods and services). The findings highlight the greater regressive inflation faced by female-headed households compared to men in middle-income countries like Portugal, Poland and Hungary and high-income countries like Ireland. In Germany overall inflation has a neutral impact on women, whereas Finland stands out with a progressive inflation, more pronounced for female-headed households. Consistent across countries, the burden of food and heating/electricity inflation is disproportionately borne by low-income households. Heating/electricity inflation has a larger regressive contribution to overall inflation for female-headed households in all countries, whereas for food this holds only in Poland and Hungary. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies to address potential inequalities arising from differential consumption patterns and protect the most vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | regressive inflation, inflation and gender, distributional effect and gender, progressive inflation |
| JEL: | D12 D31 E31 I30 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16860&r=tra |
| By: | Mariana Carmelia Balanica-Dragomir; Gabriel Murariu; Lucian Puiu Georgescu |
| Abstract: | Carbon emissions have become a specific alarming indicators and intricate challenges that lead an extended argue about climate change. The growing trend in the utilization of fossil fuels for the economic progress and simultaneously reducing the carbon quantity has turn into a substantial and global challenge. The aim of this paper is to examine the driving factors of CO$_2$ emissions from energy sector in Romania during the period 2008-2022 emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and takes into account five items: CO$_2$ emissions, primary energy resources, energy consumption, gross domestic product and population, the driving forces of CO$_2$ emissions, based on which it was calculated the contribution of carbon intensity, energy mixes, generating efficiency, economy, and population. The results indicate that generating efficiency effect -90968.57 is the largest inhibiting index while economic effect is the largest positive index 69084.04 having the role of increasing CO$_2$ emissions. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.04354&r=tra |
| By: | Lenka Slegerova (Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, Czechia) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the accessibility of primary care for children in Czechia in light of the declining numbers of general practitioners and the rising numbers of children without a practitioner. We show that children largely receive primary care outside their district of administrative residence, that the average number of children registered per practitioner is increasing, and that the share of children without a practitioner was over 6% in 2022. This study further challenges the use of hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions as a measure of the accessibility and quality of primary care. We build a fixed-effects model for district-level data on paediatric hospital admissions and the utilisation of primary care between 2010 and 2019 in Czechia. Our focus is on the effect that the number of registered and treated children per primary-care physician has on the composition of paediatric hospital admissions. We find no significant relationship between the variables of our interest. Therefore, we suggest that hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions are not a good measure of the accessibility and quality of primary care for the child population in Czechia, a country with compulsory health insurance and no gatekeeping of primary care. |
| Keywords: | accessibility of primary care, paediatric hospital admissions, ambulatory care sensitive conditions |
| JEL: | I10 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_13&r=tra |
| By: | Brendon McConnell, Jaime Millan-Quijano |
| Keywords: | Welfare Eligibility, Manipulation, Public Policy Design, Child Skill Investment |
| JEL: | H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp04-2024&r=tra |
| By: | Tervola, Jussi; Iivonen, Saija; Hiilamo, Heikki |
| Abstract: | Social insurance and social assistance reflect fundamental principles of social policies. Social insurance benefits cover employed individuals against a social risk event such as unemployment or disability in exchange of paid contributions. Social assistance benefits, in turn, are designed typically to secure the minimum standard of living, regardless of past contribution. In this article we ask if the dualism is feasible to depict contemporary social benefits that cover traditional social risks: unemployment, childbirth, sickness, disability, and old age. A policy analysis of six European countries with extensive social security systems – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, and United Kingdom – demonstrates that while traditional insurance benefits and assistance benefits still make up the majority of risk-based benefits, also different kinds of deviations from the pure forms are observed. Some countries provide hybrid benefits where past contribution affects benefit rate, but non-contributory minimum is guaranteed for all facing the risk. Some countries provide income-tested contributory benefits which is against the traditional insurance logic. Moreover, universal flat-rate benefits are found especially covering the risk of old age. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:97xzj&r=tra |
| By: | Stefano Arnolfo (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Nicole Hiekel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the heterogeneity of multipartnered fertility (MPF) trajectories in the Northern European context, where transformations in family formation patterns and in the partnership context of childbearing, together with high social acceptance for new family behaviours, result in a large degree of family life course differentiation. Applying sequence and cluster analyses to high-quality partnership and fertility histories of men and women who experience MPF from the Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, Estonian, and Finnish Generations and Gender Survey Round II collected between 2020 and 2022, we provide a timely description of how MPF trajectories unfold, and identify a typology of these family life courses. Our findings reveal that in the five countries, various trajectories of MPF co-exist that differ substantially in terms of the order and timing of union formation and dissolution, and the partnership context of births. Furthermore, we investigate gender and socioeconomic inequalities, and reflect on the potential vulnerabilities nested within MPF life courses and the additional layer of disadvantage that childbearing can represent for mothers vis-à-vis fathers in the context of family complexity. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-005&r=tra |
| By: | Tinasti, Khalid; Zhang, Yong-An |
| Abstract: | The history, policies and practice of drug control in Asia have been historically multifaceted, particularly concerning substances like opium, cannabis, and various indigenous psychoactive plants. The opium trade, notably in the 19th and early 20th centuries, significantly impacted Asian societies, triggering conflicts, influencing international relations, and altering the socio-economic fabric. Yet, the history of drug control across different parts of Asia reflects a complex interplay of factors and a stark regional diversity. This special issue serves as a platform for interdisciplinary studies that link Asian drug trafficking with collaborative legal responses across the region. The primary objective is to compile an overview of the history, current practices, and policies addressing drug production, trafficking, and usage in a continent that houses 60% of the global population. This is done by sampling articles that encompass the large geographical scope of Asia, from Northeast Asia to the Middle East. The special issue focuses on three key dimensions of drug control that affect Asian countries: Historical landmarks, including milestones of drug control policy developments at the national level, which shaped the international regime over the last two centuries; public health and history of local responses with the analysis of the burden of infectious diseases, and the state of access to controlled essential medicines; and, criminal justice and historical landmarks of its development through legal responses and punishments. |
| Keywords: | history; Asia; drug control; China; Lebanon; Azerbaijan; Phillipines |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122170&r=tra |
| By: | Alice Fan; Bingjie Hu; Sadhna Naik; Neree C.G.M. Noumon; Keyra Primus |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Dynamics; Competitiveness; Baltics |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/061&r=tra |