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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | Russia's attacks against Ukraine have triggered massive and unexpected migration movements. In this paper, I examine the impact of the inflow of Ukrainians that resulted from Russia's aggression in 2014 on local migration patterns in Poland. For identification, I use an instrumental variable approach drawing on unique historical data on the forced resettlement of Ukrainians in Poland after World War II. The results show that the regional inflow of immigrants decreases both internal and international out-migration of the Polish population. I provide supportive evidence that the decrease in out-migration is due to the upscaling of local labor markets. |
| Abstract: | Die Angriffe von Russland auf die Ukraine haben massive und unerwartete Migrationsbewegungen ausgelöst. In diesem Artikel untersuche ich die Auswirkungen des Zustroms ukrainischer Arbeitskräfte infolge der russischen Aggression im Jahr 2014 auf lokale Migrationsbewegungen in Polen. Zur Identifizierung der Effekte verwende ich einen Instrumentalvariablenansatz, der sich auf einzigartige historische Daten zur Zwangsumsiedlung ukrainischer Familien in Polen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg stützt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die regionale Zuwanderung sowohl die interne als auch die internationale Abwanderung der polnischen Bevölkerung verringert. Ich finde Indizien dafür, dass dieser Rückgang der Abwanderung auf das Hochskalieren der lokalen Arbeitsmärkte zurückzuführen ist. |
| Keywords: | Migration, immigrant workers, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:281188&r=tra |
| By: | Boris Blagov; Maximilian Dirks; Michael Funke |
| Abstract: | Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geo-political risk shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European neighboring countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, international business cycle transmission, global VAR model, Russia |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10880&r=tra |
| By: | Juan de Lucio (Universidad de Alcalá. Pza. San Diego, s/n, 28801, Alcalá de Henares (Spain).); Raúl Mínguez (Cámara de Comercio de España and Universidad Antonio de Nebrija. Calle de Santa Cruz de Marcenado, 27, 28015, Madrid (Spain).); Asier Minondo (Corresponding author. Deusto Business School, University of Deusto, Camino de Mundaiz 50, 20012 Donostia - San Sebastián (Spain).); Francisco Requena (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led the European Union to impose a wide range of economic sanctions on Russia. Parallel to this process, many multinational firms, due to reputational concerns, voluntarily decided to suspend their activities in Russia. This paper quantifies the impact of trade sanctions and the decision of firms to suspend activities on Spanish exports and imports with Russia. Using an event study methodology, we find that the decision of firms to suspend activities in Russia contributed to the reduction in exports and imports by 26% and 43%, respectively, while sanctions contributed by 9% and 21%, respectively. These figures highlight that firms’ actions to protect their reputation can significantly complement sanctions in reducing the amount of trade with target countries. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, reputation, Russian invasion of Ukraine, firm-level exports and imports, Spain |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2406&r=tra |
| By: | Drott, Constantin; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions at the most disaggregated level possible, individual bank accounts. Using data from the Eurosystem’s real-time gross settlement system TARGET2, we provide empirical evidence that sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian banks following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 have sizably reduced financial transactions with sanctioned Russian bank accounts, both along the extensive and intensive margins. Among the various sanction measures taken, exclusion from SWIFT, a global provider of secure financial messaging services, turns out to have the largest effects. |
| Date: | 2024–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:142468&r=tra |
| By: | Dorothée Charlier (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Mouez Fodha (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Djamel Kirat (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of residential CO 2 emissions, which are not covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), in 19 European countries between 2000-2017. Using both static and dynamic panel models, we found strong relationships between CO 2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita, energy prices and heating needs. We then assessed the impact of European carbon taxation and show that a e20/tonne CO 2 tax lowers emissions by 1% on average. We found that this tax affects countries differently in terms of tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Poland and the Czech Republic would have to pay the highest contribution, and Portugal and Denmark the lowest. Finally, we propose a scenario that equalizes countries' tax burdens. We show that, were Europe to redistribute all tax revenues, the main beneficiaries would be Poland and Belgium, while Denmark and Luxembourg would have to pay a surtax. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, Residential Sector, Panel data, Energy prices, Carbon tax |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03901487&r=tra |
| By: | Tetiana Yukhymenko (National Bank of Ukraine); Oleh Sorochan (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | The study explores the impact of central bank communications on a range of macro-financial indicators. Specifically, we examine whether information posted on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website influences foreign exchange (FX) markets and the inflation expectations of experts. Our main results suggest that the NBU's statements and press releases on monetary policy issues matter. For instance, we find that exchange rate movements and volatility are negatively correlated with the volumes of publications of the NBU on its official website. However, this effect is noticeably bigger for volatility than for exchange rate changes. The impact of communication on FX developments is the strongest a week after the news release, and it persists further. Furthermore, inflation expectations of financial experts, though indifferent to all NBU updates, turn out to be sensitive to monetary policy announcements. The letter reduces the level of expectations and interest rates. |
| Keywords: | central bank communications ; monetary policy ; FX market ; text analysis |
| JEL: | E58 E71 C55 |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp01-2024&r=tra |
| By: | Pousette, Andreas (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics); Hofmarcher, Thomas (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | This report sheds light on inequalities in cancer care across the EU and provides recommendations for improvement. The report highlights inequalities between and within countries. Five case studies are analyzed relating to HPV vaccination, colorectal cancer screening, biomarker testing, cancer medicines and evidence-based care, access to financial products for survivors (‘the right to be forgotten’). <p> Across the EU, the chances of patients surviving cancer depends crucially on one’s place of residence. For instance, the five-year survival rate of colon cancer ranges from 50% in the worst-performing country to nearly 70% in the best-performing country. For breast cancer, survival rates range from just above 70% to around 90%. One underlying factor contributing to between-country inequalities in patient outcomes may be the level of per-capita spending on cancer care. Spending ranges from €50–100 per capita in Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Romania to €250–300 in Austria, the Benelux countries, France, and Germany (adjusted for purchasing power parities). However, spending on cancer care only partially seems to explain between-country inequalities. <p> The report emphasizes the critical role of how funds are used to provide high-quality care in order to address inequalities in patient outcomes. For each case study, inequalities across six dimensions (countries, sex, age, education level, socioeconomic status, urbanization level) are studied. The findings reveal large between-country inequalities in the EU along the entire disease pathway, such as HPV vaccination rates of girls ranging from less than 10% in Bulgaria to over 90% in Portugal or colorectal cancer screening rates ranging from around 5% in Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Romania to 76% in Denmark. There are also notable within-country inequalities. Factors such as age, socioeconomic status, and rural/urban place of residence demonstrate high levels of inequalities. Individual aspects relating to health literacy also influence access to cancer care. <p> Common reasons for the observed inequalities between countries include the political prioritization of cancer care, health expenditure on cancer care (funding), availability of supporting infrastructure, availability of medical professionals, up-to-dateness of clinical guidelines. Reasons for inequalities within countries include the level of health literacy and the geographic distance to university hospitals and comprehensive cancer centers. <p> Top-level recommendations to national policymakers to enhance and ensure more equal access to cancer care for everyone are the following: <p> • Improve personal and organizational health literacy of cancer patients and the public <p> • Ensure education and continuous training of medical staff <p> • Adopt innovations in early detection, diagnosis, and treatment of cancer <p> • Take a societal perspective in national cancer control planning <p> • Collect relevant data and continuously evaluate the quality of cancer care services |
| Keywords: | Cancer; inequalities; European Union; Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan; HPV; screening; biomarkers; medicines; right to be forgotten; EU; health economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ihewps:2024_001&r=tra |
| By: | Miguel à ngel Borrella-Mas, Jaime Millán-Quijano, Anastasia Terskaya |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, labeling effect, food vouchers, randomized control trial. |
| JEL: | D04 I24 I38 O12 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp04-2023&r=tra |
| By: | Ziran Ding; Jose Garcia-Louzao; Valentin Jouvanceau |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the power dynamics of firms in both product and labor markets in Lithuania between 2004 and 2018. We first show that both markets are not perfectly competitive, as both price markups and wage markdowns are far from unitary and homogeneous. Interestingly, we unveil that the dynamics of these margins followed different patterns. On the one hand, both the dispersion and the economy-wide markup have increased, indicative of an increase in product market power. On the other hand, we document a decline in monopsony power, as both the heterogeneity and the aggregate level of markdowns have declined. Altogether, our results underline the importance of jointly analyzing product and labor markets when assessing firms’ market power. |
| Keywords: | firm heterogeneity, monopoly, markups, monopsony, markdowns |
| JEL: | D40 E20 J30 L10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10883&r=tra |
| By: | NAKAGAWA Junji |
| Abstract: | The discussion on the social clause, which repeatedly took place under the GATT/WTO, was finally settled in 1996 by the WTO Singapore Ministerial Declaration, which consigned the ILO to deal with core labor standards. The 1998 Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work and its Follow-up (the Declaration) commissioned ILO members to respect, promote, and realize the four core labor rights and forbade the use of trade sanctions to enforce them. However, an increasing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) came to refer to the Declaration and obliged parties to secure core labor rights. This phenomenon is referred to as the resurgence of the social clause. This study analyzes this treaty practice in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on the domestic labor law reforms of Korea, Vietnam, and Japan under their RTAs with the US and EU. Korea and Vietnam carried out their labor law reform by implementing their treaty obligations to respect, promote, and realize freedom of association under the Declaration, which was incorporated into their RTAs with the US and EU. Japan voluntarily conducted its labor law reform and ratified ILO Convention No.105; however, the reference to the core ILO Conventions under the Japan-EU EPA put political pressure on carrying out the reform. Now that these countries have ratified the core ILO Conventions, the ILO will monitor their implementation, but RTAs will also monitor their implementation in parallel with the ILO. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24009&r=tra |