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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Evgenii Monastyrenko (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Pierre M. Picard (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have been discussing and then implementing new trade sanctions against Russian fossil fuels. This paper quantifies such policies’ trade and welfare effects using a general equilibrium model with 92 countries and 65 intermediate products and sectoral linkages. The paper breaks down the effects of the bans on gas, crude and refined oil, and coal, and discusses the impact of alternative coalitions of sanctioning countries. In the most stringent case, the model predicts welfare losses of about 16.8% in Russia and 0.42% in the sanctioning countries. These losses are very heterogeneous across sanctioning countries. The OECD countries have an important role as their participation in sanction policies significantly influences expected outcomes in Russia. Meanwhile, should only EU countries implement fossil fuel sanctions, their welfare losses are predicted to be 3.3% on average |
| Keywords: | trade shocks, sanctions, welfare outcomes. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:23-19&r=tra |
| By: | Drott, Constantin; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions at the most disaggregated level possible, individual bank accounts. Using data from the Eurosystem's real-time gross settlement system TARGET2, we provide empirical evidence that sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian banks following Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 have sizably reduced financial transactions with sanctioned Russian bank accounts, both along the extensive and intensive margins. Among the various sanction measures taken, exclusion from SWIFT, a global provider of secure financial messaging services, turns out to have the largest effects. |
| Keywords: | financial flows, transactions, restrictions |
| JEL: | F38 F51 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:darddp:281199&r=tra |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Lukas Pfeifer; Ngoc Anh Ngo |
| Abstract: | We analyze how a large-scale easing of borrower-based measures affects residential mortgage credit and borrower characteristics. We exploit a case of the easing of the LTV limit and the complete abolition of DTI and DSTI limits in the Czech Republic in the first half of 2020. Our empirical evidence suggests that the households affected increased their borrowing and purchased more expensive houses while being able to decrease the collateral value. We also document a significant increase in borrowers' debt (service) but this was softened by the concurrent growth in borrowers' income. While exploring the heterogeneity in the transmission of the regulatory easing, we find that: (i) LTV-constrained borrowers showed signs of cash-retention behavior while DTI- and DSTI-constrained borrowers acted in line with the financial accelerator mechanism; (ii) relaxing the LTV limit had a larger effect in poorer districts while the abolition of DTI and DSTI limits affected borrowers in richer regions; (iii) younger borrowers were more affected by the easing of LTV and DTI limits, while the easing of the DSTI limit affected older borrowers; (iv) relaxing the LTV limit affected mostly first-time borrowers while abolishing the DTI and DSTI limits affected mostly second-time borrowers who obtained higher mortgages and purchased more expensive property. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based measures, household finance, loosening, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2023/18&r=tra |
| By: | MS Hosen; SM Hossain; MN Mia; MR Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Inward Foreign Direct Investment (IFDI) into Europe and Asian developing countries like Bangladesh is experimentally examined in this study. IFDI in emerging markets has been boosted by global investment and inflow influenced by resource availability and public policy. The economic policy uncertainty on IFDI in 13 countries is explored at a time when the crisis between Russia and Ukraine war is having a global impact. Microeconomic factors affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inflation, interest rates, and the currency rate fluctuated with IFDI, which mostly shocked during COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. With data from the World Bank and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database, we compile a panel dataset covering 2018-2022. The researchers used a mixture of panel and linear regression analysis using a random effect model. Our findings show that the impact of global rates hurts IFDI in 13 selected countries. There is a correlation between a country's ability to enforce contracts and the amount of Inward FDI it receives. Using the top 13 hosts of incoming FDI flows COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine wartime series analysis gives valuable information for policymakers in the remaining countries chosen to attract IFDI inflows. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.03096&r=tra |
| By: | Cuong Le-Van; Ngoc-Anh Nguyen; Ngoc-Minh Nguyen; Phu Nguyen-Van (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Purpose The authors estimated the hidden overhead (capital diversion or wasteful use of capital) of Vietnam state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Design/methodology/approach The authors used a panel data set of 10, 200 Vietnam SOEs observed over the period 2010–2018. The authors modeled and estimated the hidden overhead by using a stochastic production frontier. The hidden overhead parameter is modelled as the technical inefficiency in the production function. Findings Vietnam SOEs are very capital intensive. The hidden overhead (or the wasteful use of capital) is very high with an average rate of 69%. Research limitations/implications Alternative estimation methods should be used to account for endogeneity in production inputs. Lack of comparison with the Vietnam private firms. Originality/value The paper proposes an original way to quantify hidden overhead (or capital diversion) in the Vietnam SOEs. The finding (a capital diversion rate of 69% on average) is astonishing. It calls for an urgent and profound reform of the Vietnam SOEs. |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04384629&r=tra |
| By: | Holubová, Barbora |
| Abstract: | The DEFEN-CE project's Defence Database safeguards vulnerable groups in post-COVID-19 European labour markets. The research teams analysed data from EU-27 Member States, Turkey, and Serbia, including indicators covering policy, target groups, and social partners' involvement. The analysis includes 853 policies. |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:43msb&r=tra |
| By: | Akcigit, Ufuk (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) ; University of Chicago); Alp, Harun (Federal Reserve Board); Diegmann, André (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) ; Center for European Economic Research (ZEW)); Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas (Bocconi University ; IGIER ? Innocenzo & Gasparini Institute for Economic) |
| Abstract: | "We develop a labor demand model that encompasses pre-match hiring cost arising from tight labor markets. Through the lens of the model, we study the effect of labor market tightness on firms’ labor demand by applying novel Bartik instruments to the universe of administrative employment data on Germany. In line with theory, the IV results suggest that a 10 percent increase in labor market tightness reduces firms’ employment by 0.5 percent. When accounting for search externalities, we find that the individual-firm wage elasticity of labor demand reduces from -0.7 to -0.5 at the aggregate level. For the 2015 minimum wage introduction, the elasticities imply only modest disemployment effects mirroring empirical ex-post evaluations. Moreover, the doubling of tightness between 2012 and 2019 led to a significant slowdown in employment growth by 1.1 million jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigtenzahl ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Betriebsstilllegung ; Industriepolitik ; Personalpolitik ; Privatisierung ; Produktivitätseffekte ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; staatlicher Zusammenschluss ; Treuhandanstalt ; Unternehmensentwicklung ; Unternehmensziel ; Arbeitsplatzsicherung ; 1990-2000 |
| JEL: | D24 L25 D22 J08 |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202401&r=tra |
| By: | Hung, Dang Ngoc |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of capital structure on business performance of Vietnamese enterprises during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study focuses on key performance indicators such as return on total assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and earnings per share (EPS). The analysis employs the table data regression method using a dataset comprising 5747 enterprise observations for the period of 2019 to 2022. The findings indicate that capital structure has a significant negative influence on the business performance of Vietnamese enterprises. Moreover, the study highlights the substantial effect of capital structure on business performance when considering different aspects and debt structures, particularly within the framework of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on these research findings, the article recommends that business administrators carefully consider the optimal capital structure to enhance business efficiency, especially given the unpredictable nature of the Covid-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:84dae&r=tra |