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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We construct a proxy for Russia's war-related output to evaluate the macroeconomic importance of war-related branches for Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Our results suggest that warrelated branches contributed significantly to Russia's economic recovery after the sharp decline of GDP in spring 2022. The largest contribution came from low-tech industries where Russia is less dependent on imports. With war-related branches diverting resources from civilian industries, Russia will find it increasingly difficult to maintain its current level of growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, military industry, sanctions |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:280982&r=tra |
| By: | Tamás Sebestyén; Erik Braun; Zoltán Elekes |
| Abstract: | It is now well established that complex economies with sophisticated export specialization experience higher income and economic growth levels. A group of countries, including those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), have pursued a distinctive and arguably successful economic development strategy, focusing on foreign direct investment and embedding in global value chains (GVCs) in manufacturing. However, while these countries now appear to have a high degree of economic sophistication after considerable modernization, they also face significant challenges in catching up with more developed economies in terms of prosperity. In this paper, we propose that considering the coordination of local and non-local capabilities in the same theoretical framework and empirical application helps to resolve this apparent complexity puzzle. Using a panel dataset covering 67 territories and 45 sectors from 1995 to 2018, we first show that measuring countries’ economic complexity based on value-added trade adjusts the resulting country ranking and reduces the measured complexity gap favoring CEE countries. Second, we argue that value-added-based economic complexity needs to be complemented by measures of positions in GVCs to account for access to non-local capabilities. Our results from benchmark regression analyses show that economic complexity and positions in GVCs together offer improved predictive power for income and economic growth. Finally, we show that GVC positions in services are particularly important for economic development but that a related pattern of diversification, whereby CEE countries and factory economies more broadly strengthen their GVC positions in manufacturing activities, is likely to limit their future opportunities for functional upgrading and for achieving highly complex economic structures that would be rooted in local capabilities. |
| Keywords: | capability base, economic complexity, global value chains, upstreamness, down- streamness, economic development |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2401&r=tra |
| By: | Michal Madr (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel university in Brno, Czech Republic); Radek Naplava (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel university in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of retail sales in non-specialised stores was carried out from 2005 to 2021. The market share of the six most important competitors (by ownership structure) was 75% in 2021. There has been a gradual increase in market concentration over the long term. The market structure can be characterised as an asymmetric oligopoly, the most common market structure within the European Union. Regarding the number of significant firms and the degree of concentration, the Czech market has a structure similar to the retail markets in Estonia, Germany, and the UK. Within the European comparison, the Czech retail market reaches a medium level, as evidenced by the fact that there are markets with a lower (Hungary and Poland) and higher degree of concentration (Austria and Slovakia) among the neighbouring countries. According to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, this market changed from an unconcentrated to a moderately concentrated market after 2013. There were 15 mergers and acquisitions in the period under review. However, only one (the merger of REWE Group with PLUS - DISCOUNT in 2008) was likely to lead to a significant increase in market share (by 3.5 percentage points to 13%), i.e., an increase in market concentration. The market development was very successful for the two foreign owners, the Schwarz-Gruppe (Kaufland and Lidl) and the REWE Group (Billa and Penny), whose subsidiaries had the highest market share growth. At the same time, these four companies include hypermarkets (Kaufland), supermarkets (Billa) and discount stores (Lidl and Penny). The Schwarz-Gruppe's share increased from 13% to 28%, and REWE's rose from 7% to 15%. Trading margins have been relatively stable since 2005; the average level of these indicators has increased slightly, especially from 2015 to 2021. Gross profits and gross operating margins of the largest companies have increased over time. From a company-by-company perspective, gross margins have (with minor exceptions) ranged from 1-4.5%. Sales and gross profits of the largest companies grew faster than inflation, with gross profit growth outpacing sales growth. The evolution of the market for retail sales in non-specialised stores, showing a change in market shares and the relatively low average gross margins of individual market players and their changes, clearly show this is a competitive market. |
| Keywords: | retail sales, market structure, market concentration, performance of companies, Czechia |
| JEL: | D43 L81 M20 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:93_2024&r=tra |
| By: | Filip Pertold; Sofiana Sinani; Michal Šoltés |
| Abstract: | The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps; however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2, 500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp770&r=tra |
| By: | Hlavac, Marek |
| Abstract: | According to official statistics, Slovakia’s GDP per capita at PPP has been declining compared to the EU-27 average since 2016. This unfavorable evolution is influenced by shortcomings in the input data provided to Eurostat – especially in expenditures on housing rentals and in housing stock data. Using the Eurostat-OECD methodology for calculating purchasing power parities, we estimate alternative scenarios that correct these shortcomings. Our results still suggest that Slovakia’s convergence level has been stagnating since 2016. They are less optimistic than those by other Slovak institutions, and are not very sensitive to changes in assumptions about the prices of rentals. |
| Keywords: | Slovakia; purchasing power parity; convergence; housing; imputed rent |
| JEL: | E01 E3 E31 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119323&r=tra |
| By: | Maxime TERRIEUX |
| Abstract: | Following three decades of strong growth (7% on average) which enabled the country to eradicate extreme poverty and reach middle-income status, Vietnam continues to offer highly attractive prospects. Socio-political stability, a cautious policy mix, continually high economic growth, and the size of the domestic market of 100 million inhabitants are all major assets. Vietnam also benefits from a limited public debt ratio. Finally, the economy will continue to build on its strong integration into international trade, where recent upheavals (reconfiguration of value chains related to the Covid-19 crisis and the US-China trade war) have largely benefited Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2024–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16154&r=tra |
| By: | Dang, Son-Hoang; Nguyen, Luan-Thanh |
| Abstract: | This study explores the factors influencing customer loyalty in social commerce, defined as the integration of e-commerce with Web 2.0 software and social technology. Despite the significance of customer loyalty in maintaining long-term competitive advantages, limited research has focused on this aspect within the context of social commerce. The aim of this study is to identify the key factors affecting customer loyalty in social commerce platforms. Data was collected through surveys from 218 social commerce customers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, representing various s-commerce platforms. The partial least squares approach was used to analyze the data. The results reveal that customer loyalty is positively influenced by trust and satisfaction. Additionally, service quality, reputation, perceived security, and customer feedback positively impact both trust and satisfaction. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of customer loyalty in social commerce and provide practical implications for social commerce managers. The study highlights the importance of fostering trust and satisfaction through various factors, such as service quality, reputation, perceived security, and customer feedback, to enhance customer loyalty. |
| Keywords: | social commerce, PLS-SEM, customer loyalty, Vietnam |
| JEL: | M3 M31 |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119509&r=tra |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Jaanika Merikull (Eesti Pank); Aurelija Proskute (Lietuvos bankas) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the margins and heterogeneity of adjustments to trade shocks by estimating how Covid-19 restrictions affected imports and exports. We use data from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on foreign trade at the level of the firm and the partner country and at monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2020. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and on the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the adjustment to the restrictions mostly occurs through the intensive margin, meaning trade values are reduced rather than trade in cer- tain markets or products ceasing. It is further observed that quantity played a more important role in the adjustment process than prices and that both upstream and downstream restrictions played an equally important role in the decline of foreign trade. It is shown that differentiated products that are difficult to replace are responsible for this adjustment pattern. |
| Keywords: | transmission of shocks, input-output linkages, global value chains, Covid-19, workplace closing |
| JEL: | F14 F61 D22 |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202401&r=tra |
| By: | Jelena Budak (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Edo Rajh (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Mirela Holy (VERN’ University) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the public perception of creative and cultural industries in Croatia. Based on the survey data, it assesses how well Croatian citizens/consumers are familiar with creative and cultural industries and explores their usage of creative and cultural industry products and services. The consumers’ attitudes towards creative and cultural industries’ products and services are also compared. The research objective is to identify the determinants of public perception in the context of creative industries and the creative economy. Six main theoretical models of acceptance are tested to examine which model best fits the context of creative industries in Croatia. The findings are framed to facilitate policy decision-making so 20 recommendations for the future development of policies to encourage creative and cultural industries in Croatia are offered. |
| Keywords: | perception, acceptance models, creative and cultural industries, creative economy, consumers |
| JEL: | D12 L8 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iez:wpaper:2302&r=tra |