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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
| Abstract: | We introduce an informal sector into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of a grey economy for the cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. We find that incorporating an informal sector improves the model fit against data, as compared to the standard RBC model, and thus this sector is an important ingredient that needs to be considered by researchers interested in business cycle-, or public finance issues. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, informal sector, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2024-01&r=tra |
| By: | Anna Alberini (AREC, University of Maryland, College Park); Levan Bezhanishvili (Institute of Economic Studies at Faculty of Social Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.); Milan Scasny (Charles University, Environment Center, and Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.) |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 pandemic, the governments of many countries adopted measures to support the population during the lockdowns and periods of reduced economic activity. In the Republic of Georgia, in April 2020 the government announced that it would pay the electricity bills of residential customers in April and May 2020, effectively making electricity free, as long as usage would not exceed 200 kWh/month. In August 2020, the government announced that the policy would be in force again in November and December 2020, and January and February 2021. We examine meter readings from the entire country outside of the Tbilisi city limits, finding that the average household increased usage by some 5% above and beyond their normal. This figure however masks considerable heterogeneity in the effects of the policy across urban, rural, and "high mountain" status areas. We examine the possibility that awareness of the policy might decrease with the distance from the capital Tbilisi, but find little evidence of "distance decay" effect. We find that, as suggested by economic theory, in the months when the policy is in place low-volume consumers increase their electricity usage and high-volume consumers decrease it in an effort to make the 200 kWh mark. Assuming that the increase in electricity demand was met with imports and domestic generation by gas-fired power plants, our models predict that in our sample CO2 emissions increased by 2, 028 tons during the "free electricity months, " despite an actual reduction among the residents of large cities. |
| Keywords: | residential electricity consumption; increasing block rate (IBR) tariffs; salience; free electricity |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2023_37&r=tra |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa; Hohol, Oleksandra; Ihnatenko, Yaroslava |
| Abstract: | This study examines the mental health of students from Kyiv universities, considering the context of 21 months of war in Ukraine. Our primary dataset is derived from an online survey. Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, we analyze two key facets of mental health: anxiety levels and safety perception. Our findings reveal that anxiety levels among students are primarily shaped by the frequency of contemplation regarding the ongoing war and their emotional responses to war-related news. Similarly, obsessive thoughts about the war negatively impact safety perception, a trend that, however, tends to diminish for students studying abroad during the conflict. Conversely, for students who remain in Ukraine, the absence of psychological support from the university exacerbates the situation, contributing to a significant decrease in the sense of safety. |
| Keywords: | Anxiety, safety perception, mental health, wartime, Ukraine |
| JEL: | I00 I12 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119435&r=tra |
| By: | Hoai Son Nguyen (NEU - National Economics University [Hanoï, Vietnam]); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xuân Tháng Nguyen (NEU - National Economics University [Hanoï, Vietnam]) |
| Abstract: | The study retests the economy of scale in electricity consumption under the tiered electricity pricing conditions with panel data constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) for the years 2014, 2016, and 2018. Using instrumental variables developed by McFadden, Puig, and Kirschner (1977) to represent tiered prices, the study has separated the impact of tiered pricing to estimate the economy of scale in electricity consumption of households in Vietnam from 2014 to 2018. The results show that even under the influence of tiered pricing, households still exhibit economies of scale in electricity consumption. With each additional member, the per capita electricity consumption of each household decreases by 5.36 kWh/month, equivalent to a 15% reduction. This result has a small deviation compared to the results estimated in other Asian countries such as China. Summary for policymakers: This study examines how of electricity consumption by Vietnamese households between 2014 and 2018 depends on households size, income and other factors. It utilizes instrumental variables to adjust for the effects of increasing block tariffs. The result confirm the existence of economies of scale in electricity use among Vietnamese households: each additional member in the household decreases the per capita power consumption by 15%. Results imply that the observed social trend towards smaller households may contributes to the electricity demand increase. Indeed, between 2014 and 2020, the average household size in Vietnam decreased, correlating with a large increase in per capita electricity consumption. However, the study finds that diseconomies of scale only explain a small part (5%) of the households electricity demand increase. The majority of the increase is due to other factors, such as the number of households, their income growth, and urbanization. |
| Abstract: | Nghiên cứu kiểm định lại tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện dưới điều kiện giá điện bậc thang với số liệu mảng được xây dựng từ Khảo sát mức sống dân cư (VHLSS) của ba năm 2014, 2016 và 2018. Sử dụng biến công cụ do McFadden, Puig và Kirschner (1977) phát triển để đại diện cho giá bậc thang, nghiên cứu đã phân tách được tác động của giá bậc thang để ước tính được tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện của các hộ gia đình tại Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2014 đến năm 2018. Kết quả cho thấy, ngay cả dưới ảnh hưởng của giá bậc thang, các hộ gia đình vẫn có tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện. Với mỗi thành viên tăng thêm, lượng điện tiêu thụ trên đầu người của mỗi hộ sẽ giảm đi 5, 36 kWh/tháng, tương đương với lượng giảm 15%. Kết quả này có sai biệt không lớn với các kết quả đã được ước lượng tại các nước châu Á khác như Trung Quốc. |
| Keywords: | Economy of scale, electricity demand function, tiered pricing, Vietnamese households. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04332519&r=tra |
| By: | David Andrews (Independent consultant) |
| Abstract: | The IMF’s concessional lending to low-income countries through its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) has risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic and demand for the PRGT resources is expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. But the surge in lending has strained the PRGT's finances—loan resources have dwindled, subsidy costs have risen sharply, and reserves need bolstering. Projections show the risks to PRGT financing are accentuated given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising global interest rates. A multi-pronged decade-long effort is needed to ensure sound PRGT financing: (1) reinforce current fundraising efforts for loan and subsidy resources; (2) promote the use of the PRGT's deposit investment account; (3) terminate the reimbursement of PRGT administrative resources to the IMF's General Resources Account and (4) begin a discussion on IMF gold sales to take place in the out years. Each prong of the effort should start immediately, given the time lags involved in reaching consensus and implementation. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:267&r=tra |
| By: | Ho Sy-Hoa (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]); Idir Hafrad; Viet-Dung Tran |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the measure of exchange rate pass-through on consumer price for Vietnam using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Dynamic Lag from 2000Q4 to 2018Q2. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (i) we demonstrate the existence of the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate to domestic price in both short run and long run; (ii) the exchange rate pass-through is high; (iii) the impact of exchange rate depreciation on domestic price is stronger than appreciation; (iv) the exchange rate pass-through is higher in the long run than in the short run; and (v) foreign competitor price plays an important role in domestic price movement. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through, Asymmetric Exchange Rate, ARDL models, NARDL models, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2022–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04313127&r=tra |
| By: | Richiardi, Matteo; Bronka, Patryk; van de Ven, Justin; Kopasker, Daniel; Vittal Katikireddi, Srinivasa |
| Abstract: | SimPaths is a family of models for individual and household life course events, all sharing common components. The framework is designed to project life histories through time, building up a detailed picture of career paths, family (inter)relations, health, and financial circumstances. It builds upon standardised assumptions and data sources, which facilitates adaptation to alternative countries – versions currently exist for the UK and Italy, and are under development for Hungary, Poland and Greece. Careful attention is paid to model validation, and sensitivity of projections to key assumptions. The modular nature of the SimPaths framework is designed to facilitate analysis of alternative assumptions concerning the tax and benefit system, sensitivity to parameter estimates and alternative approaches for projecting labour/leisure and consumption/savings decisions. Projections for a workhorse model parameterised to the UK context are reported, which closely reflect observed data throughout a validation window between the Financial crisis (2011) and the Covid-19 pandemic (2019). |
| Date: | 2023–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:cempwp:cempa6-23&r=tra |
| By: | Jose Garcia-Louzao; Alessandro Ruggieri |
| Abstract: | Does competition in the labor market affect wage inequality? Standard textbook monopsony models predict that lower employer labor market power reduces wage dispersion. We test this hypothesis using Social Security data from Lithuania. We first fit a two-way fixed effects model to quantify the contribution of worker and firm heterogeneity to wage dispersion and document that the compression of dispersion in firm fixed effects has been the main source of the decline in inequality over the past 20 years. Using a theory-based relationship, we then leverage variation across sectors and over time to show that a 10 percentage point increase in labor market competition leads to a 0.7 percentage point reduction in the variance of firm-specific wage components. A counterfactual exercise using our preferred estimates suggests that the increase in labor market competition can explain at least 15 percent of the observed decline in overall wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, firm heterogeneity, monopsony, labor supply elasticity |
| JEL: | J31 J42 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10829&r=tra |
| By: | Viola Monostoriné Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary) |
| Abstract: | Forecast combinations have been repeatedly shown to outperform individual professional forecasts and complicated time series models in accuracy. Their ease of use and accuracy makes them important tools for policy decisions. While simple combinations work remarkably well in some situations, time-varying combinations can be even more accurate in other real-life scenarios involving economic forecasts. This paper uses a regime switching framework to model the time-variation in forecast combination weights. I use an optimization problem based on asymmetric loss functions in deriving optimal forecast combination weights. The switching framework is based on the work of Elliott and Timmermann (2005), however I extend their setup by using asymmetric quadratic loss in the optimization problem. This is an important extension, since with my setup it is possible to quantify and analyze optimal forecast biases for different directions and levels of asymmetry in the loss function, contributing to the vast literature on forecast bias. I interpret the equations for the optimal weights through analytical examples and examine how the weights depend on the model parameters, the level of asymmetry of the loss function and the transition probabilities and starting state. |
| Keywords: | Forecast combination, Loss functions, Time-varying combination weights, Markov switching.. |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2023/3&r=tra |