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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Azizi, Hamidreza; Isachenko, Daria |
| Abstract: | The South Caucasus has long been a theatre of Turkish and Iranian cooperation and rivalry. While these two regional powers have historically balanced their interests, there are signs that rivalry is taking precedence. Turkey's unwavering backing of Azerbaijan during the 2020 Karabakh War consolidated Ankara's footprint in the region. Azerbaijan's retaking of the rest of Karabakh in the latest military strikes on 19 September 2023 makes a peace accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia more likely, furthering Turkey's interests, and potentially limiting Russia's role in the region. However, the prospect of a "less Russia, more Turkey" dynamic heightens Tehran's apprehensions towards Ankara. Particularly concerning for Iran is the clause within the Moscow-brokered ceasefire of November 2020 that mandates the rebuilding of a road and rail link connecting Turkey to mainland Azerbaijan via Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave and Armenia's south-eastern Syunik province; this risks marginalising Iran. In addition, Tehran is anxiously observing the deepening of ties between Turkey's close ally, Azerbaijan, and Iran's key adversary, Israel. |
| Keywords: | South Caucasus, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, 2020 Karabakh War, Nakhchivan exclave, Zangezur Corridor |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:279943&r=tra |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico |
| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change are unevenly distributed across territories. Less is known about the potential effects of climate policies aimed at mitigating the negative consequences of climate change while transitioning economies towards low-carbon standards. This paper presents an analytical framework for identifying and assessing the regional impacts of the green transition. We develop a Regional Green Transition Vulnerability Index, a composite measure of the regional vulnerability of European regions to the socio-economic reconfigurations prompted by the green transition. The index brings to light strong regional variations in vulnerability, with less developed, peri-urban and rural regions in Southern and Eastern Europe more exposed to the foreseeable changes brought about by the green transition. We also draw attention to the potential rise of pockets of growing ‘green’ discontent, especially if the green transition contributes, as is likely to be the case, to leaving already left-behind regions further behind. |
| Keywords: | green transition; environment; left-behind regions; development trap; European Union |
| JEL: | O56 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120536&r=tra |
| By: | Stefan Jestl (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses drivers of migration in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive regions in the EU. Using a mix of econometric methods, such as spatial panel and spatial cross-sectional methods, as well as geographically weighted regressions on data for EU NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions, the results indicate that particularly carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe are not only challenged by a potential decline in carbon-intensive employment but also by outward migration flows that could diminish their prospects for longer-term economic prosperity. From a policy point of view, the results indicate that policies focusing on the replacement of the lost jobs in carbon-intensive industries might not be enough for the carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe. Instead, these regions need a simultaneous package of additional policies to improve their attractiveness. |
| Keywords: | carbon-intensive regions, green transition, regional migration |
| JEL: | Q50 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:236&r=tra |
| By: | Vulović, Marina |
| Abstract: | The economic and financial crisis of 2008 disrupted the European Union's (EU) enlargement policy for the Western Balkans. At least since that time, the region has seen greater involvement by economic actors from non-EU countries such as China, Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Their engagement has been most evident in the areas of direct investment, trade and energy security. Investments from these countries can increase the risk of 'corrosive capital', which could have a negative impact on the development of the rule of law and democracy in the Western Balkans. In view of a visibly intensifying rivalry between the EU on the one hand and Russia and China on the other, the question therefore arises as to how the EU can react to and strategically counteract the intensified economic interconnectedness of the Western Balkans with these actors. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkans, Western Balkan countries, European Union, EU, China, Russia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, UAE, direct investment, trade relations, energy security, investment in renewable energy, gradual EU accession, EU enlargement process, Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance, IPA, Economic and Investment Plan, EIP |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:279922&r=tra |
| By: | Elena Korchmina (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Could we measure the contribution of women to the economy in the pre-industrial world? Yes, it is possible, particularly in the context of Russia. By analyzing archival sources, we can not only measure their contribution to the economy but also observe how the Russian Empire evolved into a more economically patriarchal society over time. Examining the distribution of female property across various regions in Russia reveals a significant increase in the share of female property the 18th century, rising from 10% to 40%. However, this growth plateaued and gradually declined. By the late 19th century, the presence of women among top landowners continued to decrease. This substantial surge in female property ownership during the 18th century occurred primarily due to the increasing frequency of women being designated heirs. Using the unique datasets, I assessed the gender gap in wealth and income, which averaged around 25% across provinces. This indicates that the equal access to property established in 1715 led to Russia becoming a relatively gender-equal country over the following century. Consequently, noblewomen in the Russian Empire gained proxy voting rights. Interestingly, the authorities granted this fundamental civil right independently, without significant societal debate on the 'female question'. |
| Keywords: | Russian Empire, Gender, Wealth, Income, Pre-Industrial World |
| JEL: | N00 N13 N33 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0243&r=tra |
| By: | Zając, Tomasz (University of Queensland); Magda, Iga (Warsaw School of Economics); Bożykowski, M. (University of Warsaw); Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka (Warsaw School of Economics); Jasiński, M. (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Gender pay gaps in earnings are well-documented in the literature. However, new factors contributing to women's lower earnings have emerged and remain under-researched. Educational choices are among them. We use a rich administrative dataset from Poland, a Central Eastern European country with high tertiary education enrolment and high female employment rates among young women, to study gender pay gaps among tertiary education graduates with degrees in different fields of study while paying particular attention to STEM fields graduates (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). We find that already in the first year after graduation, women earn over 20% less than men. This gap widens over time. We also find significant variation across different STEM fields both in the size of the gender pay gap and in how it changes over time. The gap is largest among mathematics graduates, at over 25%; while it does not exceed 3% among chemical and Earth sciences graduates. As these differences narrow only slightly within the first four years of graduates' working careers, policymakers' efforts to increase the number of women earning STEM degrees may not be enough to achieve gender pay equality. |
| Keywords: | STEM, labor market, higher education, gender pay gap, field of study, Poland |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J3 J71 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16613&r=tra |
| By: | Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias |
| JEL: | D84 D12 E3 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277577&r=tra |
| By: | Kerim Can Kavakli; Giovanna Marcolongo; Diego Zambiasi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the enforcement of financial sanctions and the role of offshore secrecy jurisdictions (‘tax havens’) in it. Tax havens can undermine sanctions and provide a safe refuge for targeted actors by hiding information on asset ownership. Consequently, we hypothesize that targets of financial sanctions will increase their funds in tax havens. We test this hypothesis using data from the Bank of International Settlements and the Offshore Leaks Database and find strong support for it. Additionally, neither participation in sanctioning coalitions nor membership in relevant intergovernmental organizations prevent tax havens from attracting target state funds. However, when the US leads (not only joins) a sanction coalition, then this effect disappears. Our findings suggest that targeted actors use tax havens to evade sanctions, but such evasion can be prevented when the US prioritizes enforcement. More broadly, our paper highlights a novel and geostrategically important role of tax havens in global finance. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23212&r=tra |
| By: | CAPPELLANO Francesco; MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); DOTTI Nicola Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper provides quantitative evidence on the geography of regional readiness to tackle climate change using data from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain. Following Cappellano et al. (2022), we estimate a composite indicator that reports the situation of regions in these countries between 2009 and 2020 regarding the directionality of their Science and Technological Innovation and policy priorities to fight climate change. Using regression analysis, we assess the relationship between such directionality and the degree of risk of disasters (coastal floods, river floods, and landslides) they face in the short, medium, and long-term as a result of climate change effects. Results shows a positive relationship between estimated risk projection and climate change preparedness. However, a more in-depth analysis demonstrates the complexity of such geographical “problem-solution convergence”. Indeed, more developed regions are the ones that appear more ready to tackle climate change effects compared with transition and less developed regions. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Innovation; Public Policy; Regional Economics; Europe |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202310&r=tra |
| By: | Arandarenko, Mihail; Aleksić, Dragan |
| Abstract: | The aim of this country report is to provide answers to the following DEFEN-CE research questions: 1. What public policy and social dialogue measures targeting the selected vulnerable groups were implemented to employment and social protection during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2022? 2. To what extent and how did social dialogue play a role in the implementation of social and employment rights of selected vulnerable groups in the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2022? 3. What lessons and opportunities does the COVID-19 pandemic yield for strengthening social dialogue in the studied countries? In order to answer these questions we used a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative techniques. We started with the collection of the most relevant labour market data, especially regarding vulnerable groups. Then, by using the desk research we were able to synthesize the existing knowledge on public policies and social dialogue in the COVID-19 crisis. Finally, we conducted 10 semi-structured interviews to explore in-depth the role of social partners in the defence of the vulnerable groups. |
| Date: | 2023–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gh9mn&r=tra |
| By: | Jerg Gutmann; Pascal Langer; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | In this first empirical analysis of how sanctions affect international migration, we apply two estimation strategies, a panel difference-in-differences model and an event study approach. Our dataset covers 79, 791 dyad-year observations, reflecting migration flows from 157 origin countries to 32 destination countries between 1961 and 2018. The data supports that UN and joint EU-US sanctions increase emigration from target countries by around 20 percent. Our event study results of joint EU-US sanctions imply a gradual increase in emigration over the course of a sanction episode. The impact of UN sanctions on international migration is smaller and less persistent. Moreover, the effects are driven by target countries with fewer political rights and civil liberties, where emigration substitutes for the costly voicing of dissent. Finally, our results do not support systematic gender differences in the effect of sanctions on migration. |
| Keywords: | Gender Differences, International Sanctions, Migration |
| JEL: | F22 F51 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202311&r=tra |
| By: | Alfred A. Haug; Tomasz Łyziak; Anna Sznajderska |
| Abstract: | We empirically explore monetary and fiscal policy coordination in Poland. In particular, we study whether the empirical effects of a government spending shock on output depend on the stance of monetary policy. We find no such dependency and conclude after various sensitivity checks, including to slack in the economy, that the government spending multiplier is not dependent on monetary policy or the business cycle. The cumulative multiplier reaches a peak value of 1.11 one year after a government spending shock: a 1 złoty increase in government spending, be it government consumption purchases or government investment or any combination of both, increases real GDP by 1.11 złoty. We identify a crowding-out effect of private investment, but it is relatively small and the overall impact of the government investment shock on GDP is above unity |
| Keywords: | government spending multiplier, monetary policy, local projections, Poland |
| JEL: | E62 E63 H50 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2022080&r=tra |
| By: | Ian Coxhead (University of Wisconsin-Madison and Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), Tokyo); Nguyen Dinh Tuan Vuong (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | Viet Nam's economy has grown and changed in dramatic ways since WTO accession in 2007. Much of the growth and change is due to expanded international trade and FDI. These in turn have greatly increased domestic labour demand. However, growth that exploits the country's abundant supply of low-skill labour may depress the relative demand for skills. In this paper we ask whether the skill premium-the relative price of skills, which also measures the gross economic benefit to schooling at high school and beyond-plays an influential role in schooling decisions amongst teenagers for whom wage-work is an alternative to continued education. We first use event study methods to clarify trends in wages and skill premia. We then decompose influences on upper secondary school enrolments from income growth, demographic change, and skill premia. We find that the college skill premium has a positive influence on enrolments, whereas the premium from upper secondary completion has no significant effect. Our conclusions explore implications for future productivity growth as well as economic and educational policies. |
| Keywords: | Skill premium, wages, enrolments, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | O15 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2023–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-03&r=tra |
| By: | Michal MarenÄ ák (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the impact of inflation expectations on consumption depends on prevailing inflation. Beyond the quantitative-qualitative distinction in inflation expectations, differentiating among qualitative expectations of higher, constant, or positive inflation is key. Qualitative expectations have a greater impact on consumption than expected levels and changes in inflation, and the significance of specific qualitative expectations is contingent upon the prevailing inflation conditions. The effect of expecting qualitatively higher inflation on the willingness to consume is more pronounced during periods of inflation surges than in times of low and stable inflation, and is insignificant during periods of decline or deflation. Policy implications are discussed. |
| JEL: | D1 D8 E2 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1102&r=tra |
| By: | Diep Phan (University of Wisconsin-Madison and Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), Tokyo); Ian Coxhead (University of Wisconsin-Madison and Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the consequences of a policy regime in which state firms enjoy privileged access to capital while private firms are crowded out. Consequently, state firms choose technologies that are capital-intensive and thus demand more skilled labour. Econometric estimates using Viet Nam's enterprise censuses confirm some of the propositions generated by the model. Relative to private firms, state firms have higher fixed capital stocks but do not have lower variable capital costs; they also employ more skilled labour. Also, as predicted, there is a U-shaped relationship between production scale and skills intensity; many private firms (which are mostly small) are limited to labour-intensive techniques and increase output simply by adding unskilled labour, whereas larger firms are more likely to operate at scales at which it is profitable to employ more skills-intensive and efficient technologies. |
| Keywords: | state-owned enterprises, Viet Nam, skills intensity, technological choice |
| JEL: | O14 O25 J24 L25 |
| Date: | 2023–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-07&r=tra |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Nature-based solutions (NbS) aim to maintain, enhance and restore ecosystems to address a variety of social, economic and environmental challenges, including climate change and biodiversity loss. This paper applies the OECD’s framework to provide recommendations for how to encourage the use of NbS by Hungarian municipalities. It illustrates some of the key challenges in the local implementation of NbS in Hungary and provides international examples of how they are tackled in diverse contexts. It also discusses the role of reforms about the enabling environment to mobilise further public and private investment in climate adaptation. |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:39-en&r=tra |
| By: | Nolan, Brian; Azzollini, Leo; Breen, Richard |
| Abstract: | Changes in household structures and employment patterns alter the balance between households with an above- versus a below-average poverty risk while also affecting relative income poverty thresholds. Examining eleven countries for which suitable microdata is available from LIS back to the mid-1980s shows that patterns of change in household composition and employment exhibited some common features but also very substantial variation. The share of single adult households rose in most countries, couples with no or only one person in paid work fell in most, while couple households with two earners increased in a majority but not in Denmark, Norway and the USA and only modestly in Hungary and the UK. A counterfactual exercise assessed the impact of these changes in composition on relative income poverty rates by reweighting the 2019 samples to impose the composition structure observed in 1986. In the absence of these composition changes the relative poverty rate in 2019 would have been a good deal higher in Germany, Greece, and Italy, and especially in Israel and Spain. Composition changes had only a modest impact in the UK and made very little difference in Denmark, Hungary, and the USA, while working to increase the relative poverty rate in Czechia and Norway. This reflected the varying scale and nature of the composition changes seen across these countries. Their impact included driving up the relative poverty threshold (except in the USA), and if this effect is discounted the composition shift over the period would have had a greater poverty reduction impact in most countries, especially in Israel, Italy and most powerfully in Spain. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2023-29&r=tra |
| By: | Jana Valachyova (Council for Budget Responsibility); Matus Senaj (Council for Budget Responsibility) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of an unexpected and steep increase in price level on the purchasing power of Slovak families in 2022 and 2023. This is the first and the only paper that looks at distributional impacts of an inflationary shock in Slovakia. We combine a microsimulation model SIMTASK with the data on expenditure from the Household Budget Survey to quantify the net effect of an inflationary shock together with the cushioning effects of government measures and economic adjustments in the form of inflation-induced wage growth and an additional valorisation of social benefits. We show that in 2022, the government measures were well targeted and succeeded in offsetting a significant part of a purchasing power drop for low-income families. For high-income families, economic adjustments were the crucial component offsetting a significant part of their purchasing power drop. However, the overall net effect on purchasing power was negative (6 % for an average family) and it holds true for each income decile and family type. The story is different in 2023. It turns out that despite the high inflation, the macroeconomic adjustment hand in hand with adopted government measures, including a generous price cap on energy prices, more than compensate for the effects of unexpected inflation (3 % increase for an average family). This holds true for all analysed income categories, except for the lowest income decile. When looking at family types, the best off are families without children, often consisting of pensioners. |
| Keywords: | microsimulation, inflationary shock, distributional effect, tax and transfer policy |
| JEL: | C81 D31 E31 H24 I38 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbe:wpaper:202302&r=tra |