nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒30
nine papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Who is Most Vulnerable to the Transition Away from Coal? Ruda Śląska Residents’ Preferences Towards Jobs and Land Repurposing By Honorati, Maddalena; Ferré, Céline; Gajderowicz, Tomasz
  2. Examining Predictors of Currency Strength in Developing and Transition Economies By Myslytska, Anna; Kruk, Anton; Khomych, Yaroslav
  3. Capital diversion in Vietnamese state-owned enterprises By Phu Nguyen-Van; Ngoc Minh Nguyen; Ngoc Anh Nguyen
  4. What’s the Cost of †Saving the Planet†for Banks? Assessing the Indirect Impact of Climate Transition Risks on Slovak Banks’ Loan Portfolios By Jozef Kalman; Jan Klacso; Roman Vasil; Juraj Zeman
  5. Green and resilient urban recovery (case of Ukraine) By Suésécenko, Oleksandr; Schwarze, Reimund
  6. Options to Support Workers through a Transition away from Coal in Eastern Wielkopolska By Honorati, Maddalena; Banaszczyk, Anna
  7. Less-Cash or More-Cash? Determinants and Trends of Currency in Circulation in a Panel of 17 Economies By Kumar Chandrakamal Pramod Kumar
  8. Anticipating High-Speed Broadband Penetration: A Multi-Country Pre-Launch Forecasting Study By Petre, Konstantin; Chipouras, Aristides; Katsianis, Dimitris; Varoutas, Dimitris
  9. Game of Prejurdice By Utteeyo Dasgupta; Subha Mani; Joe Vecci; Tomas Zelinsky

  1. By: Honorati, Maddalena; Ferré, Céline; Gajderowicz, Tomasz
    Abstract: After Germany, Poland is the EU’s second largest coal producer and consumer.1 96 percent of EU-27 hard coal production, or 54.4 million tons, is extracted in Poland (EURACOAL, 2020). In 2020, over 40 percent of the country’s total energy supply (TES) and 70 percent of its electricity generation come from coal and lignite (IEA, 2022), the highest rate in Europe. Coal in Poland also continues to employ about 88, 000 people directly in the mines, down from about 444, 000 in 1989. Europe’s commitment to stop its fossil fuel imports from Russia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is slowing down Poland’s coal phase-out to ensure energy security in Europe, 2 but Poland remains committed to a complete coal mine closure by 2049.
    Keywords: Just transition; jobs; coal transition; job displacements; income support; ALMPs/active labor market policies.
    Date: 2023–05–24
  2. By: Myslytska, Anna; Kruk, Anton; Khomych, Yaroslav
    Abstract: In the globalized world, the strength of a country's currency is paramount, especially for developing and transition economies. This research endeavors to identify the key predictors for currency strength in such countries, with a spotlight on Ukraine, particularly in the aftermath of Russia's invasion. Leveraging cross-country regression analysis, the study examines the factors influencing exchange rates. The findings highlight the role of economic prosperity, import dynamics, and government spending as vital determinants of currency strength, while interest rates, exports, and inflation were found to have less significance. For policymakers, this implies a need to bolster economic growth, manage imports, and ensure prudent fiscal policies. This study not only augments the academic discourse on international finance but also offers actionable insights for economies like Ukraine striving for currency stability.
    Keywords: Exchange Rates, Developing Countries, Transition Economies
    JEL: E00 E6 F4
    Date: 2023–07–10
  3. By: Phu Nguyen-Van; Ngoc Minh Nguyen; Ngoc Anh Nguyen
    Abstract: We consider the capital productivity of a panel data set of 10, 200 Vietnam state-owned enterprises over the period 2010-2018, using a stochastic frontier production modelling. We discover there exists an overutilization of the physical capital and more importantly, diversion of the capital stock. This diversion may be due to a waste of capital stocks or to a special form of bribery we call "hidden overhead". The very high diversion rate, 69% on average, calls for a profound reform of the sector.
    Keywords: Productivity; stochastic production frontier; hidden overhead
    JEL: E20 O53 P20
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Jozef Kalman (National Bank of Slovakia); Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Roman Vasil (National Bank of Slovakia); Juraj Zeman (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: The ongoing trend of global warming is damaging not only human society but also economic activity. Central banks, supervisors, and macroprudential authorities are not immune to the climate-related risks in the financial sector. This study analyses how climate transition risks indirectly affect the banking sector through the credit risk channel for both households and non-financial corporations. We integrate Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios into conventional stress testing framework. The analysis focuses on a short-term horizon to reduce the impact of high modeling uncertainty on the outcomes. We find that a relatively smooth substitution of emission-intensive sectors results in relatively low indirect costs for banks. An uneven transition can, however, generate significantly higher credit losses, occasionally exceeding adverse scenario outcomes of conventional stress testing. The results are sensitive to an increase in energy prices or to higher defaults of firms in emission-intensive sectors.
    JEL: C60 E50 G32 O44 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2023–10
  5. By: Suésécenko, Oleksandr; Schwarze, Reimund
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Honorati, Maddalena; Banaszczyk, Anna
    Abstract: The objective of this policy note is to provide an overview of the three draft project proposals and to recommend key design principles and implementation arrangement options for a coordinated outplacement program in the Eastern Wielkopolska region that would provide a package of services to motivate and help affected workers find suitable jobs in alignment with the TJTP. The focus of the note is on interventions supporting the social and labor transition in Eastern Wielkopolska, rather than the economic, spatial, and energy transformations which are also part of the JTM Pillar. Efforts to promote local economic development and environmental rehabilitation of affected subregions as well as to develop stakeholder engagement and public communication strategies are beyond the scope of this note.
    Keywords: Just transition; jobs; coal transition; job displacements; income support; ALMPs/active labor market policies.
    Date: 2023–05–30
  7. By: Kumar Chandrakamal Pramod Kumar (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Digital payments are growing rapidly, and the use of cash seems to be declining, at least in advanced economies in Europe and the U.S. However, the literature on payment systems provides an interesting perspective- cash, or currency, when measured as a percentage of the gross domestic product, has not been falling as clearly as might be intuited. Contrarily, many economies face an increase in currency in circulation rates. This paper discusses this topic in literature and explores the determinants of currency in circulation in a panel of 17 countries between 2001-2022 and whether determinants from prior literature are also significant across a group of heterogeneous countries. Interest rates are found to affect the demand for cash significantly and negatively, while tax revenues have a significantly positive impact. Some measures of financial development are also considered but are found to not have any strong explanatory power. Country fixed effects regression analysis suggests that determining what type of economies may have higher or lower currency in circulation is a complex matter requiring more detailed investigation.
    Keywords: Currency in circulation, Monetary demand, Panel data, Fixed-effects regression, Interest rates, tax revenue
    JEL: E12 E41 E50 E51
    Date: 2023–10
  8. By: Petre, Konstantin; Chipouras, Aristides; Katsianis, Dimitris; Varoutas, Dimitris
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop a new approach for pre-launch forecasting of the highspeed broadband diffusion among European community countries. However, producing such forecasts is a complex and challenging task mainly provided that past time series data concerning the relative telecom services are unavailable. Besides, multiple factors can affect adoptions such as customer heterogeneity as well as macro-economic and technological conditions. So, a multicountry method that incorporates well known diffusion models is proposed. By econometric assistance, our approach aims to capture more reliable projections in cases where the penetration is extremely immature due to lack of data. Concerning the broadband penetration in terms of download speed, rates as 100 Mbps or more seems to be mature in most countries. However, even for countries as Sweden and Romania, where penetration reached too high in downlink category (1000 Mbps or more), safe and accurate predictions cannot be deployed, as the diffusion of innovation theory argues that the level of penetration must be at least above the turning point. This area of research is important for telecom operators, as the overestimating of the demand can lead to excess inventory, while an underestimation can incurs significant opportunity costs and reduced market share.
    Keywords: Multi-country diffusion, Multi-generation diffusion, Pre-launch forecasting, Bass model, Multivariate linear regression
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Utteeyo Dasgupta (Fordham University, Department of Economics); Subha Mani (Fordham University, Department of Economics); Joe Vecci (Gothenburg University); Tomas Zelinsky (Technical University of Kosice)
    Abstract: Children and adolescents are often revered as powerful symbols of hope, representing the future and embodying the potential for positive change. However, early stages of life can also give rise to the development of immoral tendencies and anti-social behaviors. This paper examines the prevalence and possible underlying causes of discrimination among adolescents. Specifically, we examine how discriminatory preferences may vary depending on two common type of decisions -selecting group members versus sharing a pie. We find that even in low-stakes settings, there is sizable ingroup bias when individuals have the opportunity to include someone from the minority ethnicity as part of their ingroup. However, when asked to share a pie, the prevalence of discrimination decreases. Notably, discrimination largely stems from taste-based animosity with no evidence of statistical discrimination or inaccurate beliefs. Furthermore, adolescents curb discriminatory choices when the price of prejudice becomes prohibitively high. Our results have important implications for the design and timing of anti-discriminatory policies and programs.
    Keywords: Discrimination, Adolescents, Low-stakes, Lab-in-the-field experiment, Slovakia
    JEL: C9 D3 J7
    Date: 2023

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