nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒02
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics

  1. How Much Are Individuals Left Behind in Central and Eastern Compared to Western European Countries? A Fuzzy Comparative Analysis By Elena Bárcena-Martín; Francisca García-Pardo; Salvador Përez-Moreno
  2. Decoupling from Russia By Di-Comite, Francesco; Pasimeni, Paolo
  3. Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict By Zunaidah Sulong; Mohammad Abdullah; Emmanuel J. A. Abakah; David Adeabah; Simplice Asongu
  4. Internal Migration, Remittances and Economic Development By Xiameng Pan; Chang Sun
  5. Monitoring the SDGs in Pomorskie region, Poland By MROZOWSKA Sylwia
  6. Impact of privatization on firm performance in Vietnam: A Staggered Difference-in-Differences analysis with heterogeneous treatment effects By Quang Minh Nguyen
  7. Committing to grow: Privatizations and firm dynamics in East Germany By Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas
  8. Premature deindustrialization or reindustrialization: The case of China’s latecomer provinces By Lar, Ni; Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  9. The Role of Firms and Job Mobility in the Assimilation of Immigrants: Former Soviet Union Jews in Israel By Arellano-Bover, Jaime; San, Shmuel
  10. Small and Medium Enterprises Amidst the Pandemic and Reopening: Digital Edge and Transformation By Lin William Cong; Xiaohan Yang; Xiaobo Zhang

  1. By: Elena Bárcena-Martín (Universidad de Málaga); Francisca García-Pardo (Universidad de Málaga); Salvador Përez-Moreno (Universidad de Málaga)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which individuals of Central and Eastern European (CEE) member countries of the EU are left behind compared to individuals from Western European (WE) countries, as well as across CEE countries. To this end, according to the principle of ‘Leaving no one behind’ (LNOB) of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, a fuzzy approach is applied to a multidimensional setting made up of income, material deprivation, and work intensity. Comparing both blocs of countries, three decades after transitions to liberal democracy and market economies of CEE countries, a certain process of convergence between them is observed over the period 2007–2019 essentially as a result of two processes: a decrease in the level individuals were left behind in the CEE countries, and an increase in the level individuals were left behind in the WE countries in the years following the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Differences in the degree individuals were left behind along the income distribution are also analysed. Specifically, it is found that the extent to which individuals were left behind in both blocs in 2007 differs except in the tails. In contrast, the degree individuals were left behind in 2019 is very similar along the distribution for both the CEE and WE blocs and similar to the levels of the WE bloc in 2007. Focusing on the CEE countries, significant disparities among countries regarding the degree of being left behind and its distribution are also revealed. This finding may be related to the models of capitalism implemented, which ranged from mixed economy models (Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia), where citizens are less left behind, to Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Romania, characterised by more market-based models where people lag further behind.
    Keywords: Leaving no one behind, income, material deprivation, work intensity, fuzzy approach, Central and Eastern European counties
    JEL: I30 O57 C02
    Date: 2023–09
  2. By: Di-Comite, Francesco (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)); Pasimeni, Paolo (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW))
    Abstract: This paper analyses the economic implications for the European Union (EU) of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and of the following developments. It illustrates the challenges faced by the European economy at the moment of the invasion and the massive, on-going adjustment since then. The paper starts with a comprehensive description of the structural exposures and dependencies of the EU, first at macroeconomic and then at product level. It then uses high-frequency customs data to track how such exposures and dependencies developed in recent months and how the economy is trying to adjust. At the moment of the invasion, the EU was highly exposed to the import of Russian commodities, notably fossil fuels and critical raw materials, but it has gradually managed to reduce this exposure in the course of 2022. We document a sizeable reduction of EU exports to Russia, due to export restrictions, but at the same time, since imports of energy fossil fuels and critical raw materials were less elastic to prices, and prices for these goods have increased, the value of EU imports from Russia has increased. This has led to the EU accumulating an additional bilateral trade deficit vis-à- vis Russia of roughly €67bn in 2022, compared with the same period in 2021. Such additional trade surplus for Russia corresponds to roughly 3.7% of its GDP and is likely to be one of the driving factors of the strengthening of its currency, the rouble. Nevertheless, in the most recent months, the EU has managed to stop the accumulation of this trade deficit, by reducing imports. The EU was dependent on Russia for a number of critical commodities, including energy products. For the majority of these key industrial inputs, imports from Russia have been falling significantly in the course of the year, signalling a reconfiguration of supply chains in favour of alternative sources.
    Date: 2022–12
  3. By: Zunaidah Sulong (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Mohammad Abdullah (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Emmanuel J. A. Abakah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); David Adeabah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: War-related expectations cause changes to investors’ risks and returns preferences. In this study, we examine the implications of war and sanctions sentiment for the G7 countries’ debt markets during the Russia-Ukraine war. We use behavioral indicators across social media, news media, and internet attention to reflect the public sentiment from 1st January 2022 to 20th April 2023. We apply the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC) methods. The quantile-on-quantile regression results show heterogenous impact on fixed income securities. Specifically, extreme public sentiment has a negative impact on G7 fixed income securities return. The wavelets correlation result shows dynamic correlation pattern among public sentiment and fixed income securities. There is a negative relationship between public sentiment and G7 fixed income securities. The correlation is time-varying and highly event dependent. Our additional analysis using corporate bond data indicates the robustness of our findings. Furthermore, the contagion analysis shows public sentiment significantly influence G7 fixed income securities spillover. Our findings can be of great significance while framing strategies for asset allocation, portfolio performance and risk hedging.
    Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, economic sanctions, G7 debt, fixed income securities, quantile approaches
    Date: 2023–01
  4. By: Xiameng Pan; Chang Sun
    Abstract: We develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with endogenous migration and remittance decisions within households to examine the joint effect of migration and remittances on economic development. We apply the model to internal migration in China. Counterfactual analysis of the calibrated model shows that the presence of remittances increases migration and welfare, reduces regional inequality and facilitates structural change. Compared to a conventional single-person migration model, our household model suggests a larger reduction in regional inequality and stronger reallocation of employment from agriculture to manufacturing and services in response to the decline in migration costs over the period of 2000 to 2010.
    Keywords: remittances, migration, structural change, spatial equilibrium
    JEL: O10 R10 R20
    Date: 2023
  5. By: MROZOWSKA Sylwia
    Abstract: The report presents the availability of data for monitoring the indicators proposed by the JRC, and illustrates the process of building a regional SDG monitoring system for the Pomorskie region. It assesses the Pomorskie region’s capacity to monitor the SDGs, identifying challenges encountered in the process, gaps to be addressed and strengths to build on. The publication was created as a result of the analytical work and in-depth cooperation and dialogue with the Department of Regional and Spatial Development of Office of the Marshal of the Pomorskie region and with the participation of units dealing with public statistics – Statistics Poland, Branch Gdańsk and the Centre for Sustainable Development of the University of Gdańsk.
    Date: 2023–07
  6. By: Quang Minh Nguyen (Universitat de Valencia)
    Abstract: This study contributes to the empirical literature on the effects of privatization on the financial and operating performance of former state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and offers evidence on the heterogeneity of these effects across multiple dimensions. Utilizing a sample comprising 770 privatized SOEs and 2, 154 non-privatized SOEs in Vietnam from 2006 to 2010, I conduct a staggered diff-in-diff estimation to identify the causal impact of privatization on firm's performance. The results reveal that, on average, privatizaion led to an increase of 5% in sales per worker, a 23-27% increase in profitability measures, and 8% decrease in debt ratio, and a 5% decline in total employment. However, little changes in post-privatization performance are observed for large SOEs, strategic SOEs, and service SOEs.
    Keywords: Privatization, firm performance, staggered difference-in-differences, heterogeneous treatment effects
    JEL: N25 G34 L33 P31
    Date: 2023–09
  7. By: Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas
    Abstract: This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term.
    Keywords: industrial policy, privatizations, productivity, size-dependent regulations
    JEL: D22 D24 J08 L25
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Lar, Ni; Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This study examines the occurrence of premature deindustrialization or reindustrialization in latecomer provinces in China, considering that China is a large country that produces manufactured products and has a series of related industrial policy practices. This study adopts the latecomer index to determine the occurrence of premature deindustrialization or reindustrialization, which is expressed by the downward or upward shift in the manufacturing–income relationship at a certain level of income. The results of our empirical analysis confirm the existence of premature deindustrialization in the Western economic zone of China. In the Eastern and Intermediate economic zones, the reindustrialization effect outperforms premature deindustrialization because of China’s globalization and well-intended regional development policies.
    Keywords: industry-income nexus, industrial polices, latecomer index, premature deindustrialization, reindustrialization
    JEL: L52 O14 O53
    Date: 2023–08
  9. By: Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); San, Shmuel (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
    Abstract: We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants' labor market success. Our context is the migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. This setting presents unique institutional features—including the lack of barriers posed by migration regulations—and rich data availability. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of immigrant-native wage gap levels and dynamics. Immigrants are persistently more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder. We uncover a novel, sizable job utility immigrant-native gap when incorporating non-wage amenities into the analysis.
    Keywords: immigrants, firms, job mobility, firm ladder, assimilation
    JEL: J31 J61 F22
    Date: 2023–08
  10. By: Lin William Cong (Cornell University Johnson Graduate School of Management); Xiaohan Yang (Peking University National School of Development); Xiaobo Zhang (Peking University Guanghua School of Management; International Food Policy Research Institute; Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Using administrative universal firm registration data as well as primary offline and online surveys of small business owners in China, we examine (i) whether the digitization of business operations helps small and medium enterprises (SMEs) better cope with the pandemic shock, and (ii) if the pandemic has induced digital technology adoption. We identify significant economic benefits of digitization in increasing SMEs’ resilience against such a large shock, as seen through mitigated demand decline, sustainable cash flow, ability to quickly reopen, and positive outlook for growth. After the lockdown in January 2020, firm entries have exhibited a V-shaped pattern, with entries of e-commerce firms experiencing a less pronounced initial drop and a quicker rebound. The COVID-19 pandemic has also accelerated digital technology adoption of existing firms in various dimensions (captured by, e.g., the alteration of operation scope to include e-commerce activities, allowing remote work, and adoption of electronic information system), and the effect persists after one year of full reopening.
    Keywords: SMEs, COVID-19, Digital economy, E-commerce
    Date: 2021–12–10

This nep-tra issue is ©2023 by Maksym Obrizan. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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