nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒25
nine papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method By Adam Pochmara; Jan Jakub Michałek
  2. Market-reach into social reproduction and transnational labour mobility in Europe By Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, Gregory
  3. The Impact of the Pandemic and War on Surplus Redistribution Mechanisms: A Sectoral Analysis of France and Italy By G. Garau; A.K. El Meligi
  4. Dis/connectivity in the South Caucasus: Imaginaries, the effects of power, ambivalences By Smolnik, Franziska
  5. Measuring the attitude towards a European public budget: A cross-country experiment By Marco Catola; Pietro Guarnieri; Veronica Pizziol; Chiara Rapallini
  6. Monitoring the SDGs in North-West Romania region, Romania By POP Daniel
  7. Leviathan's Shadow: The Imperial Legacy of State Capacity and Economic Development in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia By Magnus Neubert
  8. Vietnam’s Just Energy Transition Partnership: a background report By Minh Ha-Duong
  9. Religious policy in Uzbekistan: Between liberalisation, state ideology and Islamisation By Schmitz, Andrea

  1. By: Adam Pochmara (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Jan Jakub Michałek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the trade implications of accession to the European Union (EU) for four Visegrad (V4) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). The estimation of the effects of integration with the EU was carried out as a comparative case study using the synthetic control method (SCM). The selection of control variables of “donor countries”, necessary to construct counterfactual trade flows of “synthetic” countries, is based on the gravity model. We analyse the impact of the accession to the EU for 307 country pairs, which covers about 85% of the trade flows of V4 countries. Using this SCM approach we find a positive impact of accession to the EU on the country's performance 15 years after accession. The trade growth resulting from the accession - in comparison to counterfactual aggregates - is large but differentiated. The exports of V4 countries doubled, except for Hungary, while imports increased by 51% on average. Consequently, the trade balances of V4 countries greatly improved compared to counterfactuals. The trade flows strongly increased among V-4 countries, in contrast with the “Hub and spoke” hypothesis. We checked the robustness of our empirical results by running a placebo test.
    Keywords: EU enlargement, Visegrad countries, trade flows, economic integration, synthetic control method
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, Gregory
    Abstract: What are the processes and consequences of markets reaching deeper into social reproduction? How do these developments, in the context of Europeanisation underpinned by neoliberalisation and transnationalisation, compel labour mobility? To consider these questions we apply social reproduction theory and the framework of uneven and combined accumulation of capital in Europe to the analysis of the UK, Poland and Ukraine and their food production, housing construction and care provision sectors. We explore how transformations, in these three countries interconnected by labour mobilities and in these three domains key to social reproduction, not only affect the industries that supply food, housing and care, but, crucially, redraw the contours of social reproduction. Theorising social reproduction as a continuum of market, state and household provisioning, we outline its transformation within the specific constellation of Europeanisation and delineate how mobility is both propelled by and advances market-reach into food, housing and care. We argue that market-driven transnational social reproduction is constituted by contradictions stemming from the deepening subordination of reproductive labour to the law of value, progressively depriving households of the promise of prosperity - a complex process that is made visible by our feminist critique of political economy.
    Keywords: social reproduction; transnational labour mobility; Europeanisation; market-reach; Poland; Ukraine; T&F deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–08–10
  3. By: G. Garau; A.K. El Meligi
    Abstract: The past three years have witnessed two rare events, the pandemic and the Ukrainian war, which have had significant impacts on the redistribution of surplus. Although both events were exceptional, they affected the surplus redistribution mechanisms differently. The pandemic has raised concerns about globalization processes, leading to a redefinition of global value chains. Conversely, the war has had devastating effects on populations, non-compliance with international laws, and cost inflation, similar to the oil crises of the 1970s. Interestingly, while production systems have scaled back in response to the pandemic, online sales, and the procurement of vaccines and medicines have grown exponentially on a global scale. In contrast, the war has caused certain goods, such as energy, agriculture, and electronics, to become scarce, causing problems in value chains and our daily lives. This paper aims to investigate the period between 2010 and 2019, corresponding to the interval between the 2008 crisis and the 2019 breakdown, to better understand the relationships between productive sectors and economic agents in France and Italy. Using the Input-Output Tables (IOT) at current and constant prices produced by the respective national statistical systems, we will analyze how the pandemic and the war could affect distributional rules, using Fontela s (1989) and Garau s (1996) methods. Fontela s model establishes the distributional rule of productivity gain in the input-output context, while Garau s proposed model identifies a measure of surplus, called purchasing power transfer (PPT), which accounts for the extra-profit conditions resulting from rental positions held by agents (Market Surplus). By analyzing the Total Factor Productivity Surplus (TFPS) and Market Surplus measures, policymakers can understand the degree of non-competitiveness in different markets and the impact of the pandemic and the war on sectoral redistribution mechanisms. Limiting market surplus situations and eliminating barriers that protect specific sectors can prevent hindrances to the full revival of the economy. Although the pandemic and the war have global effects, this paper emphasizes the importance of studying redistribution mechanisms at the sectoral level. Understanding sectoral relations can help create a more equitable redistribution of the benefits of economic growth and identify the mechanisms and rules necessary to counteract the observed global issues.
    Keywords: input-output;Total Factor Productivity Surplus;relative prices
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Smolnik, Franziska
    Abstract: Connectivity, especially in the transport sector, has become a ubiquitous issue in the South Caucasus in recent years. Transport connectivity also plays a central role in the European Union's policy towards the region. As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU has made a commitment that is both value-based and geostrategic. To do justice to this commitment, the EU should consider the different dimensions of transport connectivity and their implications on several levels and in an integrated manner. In particular, the EU should take into account the link between connectivity and questions of political power. The EU could provide support in establishing genuinely inclusive and transparent multi-stakeholder processes and independent project monitoring. This could point the way towards a more holistic approach to connectivity. The EU should also critically examine its commitment to connectivity for possible conflicts of objectives. The policy debate in Berlin and Brussels would benefit from a more intensive exchange with critical logistics, infrastructure and connectivity studies. Their findings could contribute to a more nuanced view of transport connectivity and its complexities and ambivalences.
    Keywords: South Caucasus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, transport connectivity, infrastructure, geopolitics, Trans-European Transport Network, TEN-T, International North South Transport Corridor, INSTC, Kvesheti-Kobi, Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia, TRACECA, Global Gateway, Südkaukasus, Georgien, Armenien, Aserbaidschan, Transportkonnektivität, Infrastruktur, Geopolitik, transeuropäisches Verkehrsnetz, Transportkorridor, Kvesheti-Kobi, TRACECA, Global Gateway
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Marco Catola; Pietro Guarnieri; Veronica Pizziol; Chiara Rapallini
    Abstract: We use a multilevel public goods game to investigate attitudes towards national public budgets and a European public budget in six Member States of the European Union: Italy, Germany, France, The Netherlands, Poland, and Portugal. We test to what extent propensities to contribute to public goods differ across countries. Using two efficiency treatments, we also test whether each country group adjusts its contribution when the relative efficiency of the public goods changes. We find no differences across countries in the propensity to contribute to either public budget. Moreover, all country groups level up their contribution to the European public good following an increase in its relative efficiency. We also devise a questionnaire to assess the impact of a sense of identity on contribution decisions and to control for the impact of COVID-19 and the current war in Ukraine on country and EU perceptions.
    Keywords: multilevel public goods game, public budget, European Union, online experiment, efficiency; social dilemma
    JEL: C90 H41 H61
    Date: 2023–09–01
  6. By: POP Daniel
    Abstract: The research work contributes to establishing a relevant and applicable set of indicators for monitoring the achievement of the SDGs at the regional level. The analysis was developed within the “REGIONS2030: project, launched by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in collaboration with DG REGIO and ESTAT, and supported by the European Parliament. The principal finding of the review is the identification of 47 indicators for which statistical data are readily available for Nord-Vest. This core group of indicators provides insight into the progress made by the region towards achieving 13 SDGs. Complementarily, a group of 28 additional proxy indicators are proposed for the region, which provides further details on the performance of Nord-Vest. Last, 18 indicators falling under 11 SDGs have been identified with readily available NUTS0-level data that could also be reported at the NUTS2 level. The main challenges faced during data collection include scarcity of readily available NUTS2-level data, inconsistencies in data availability and low levels of harmonisation across available data sources. Possible steps to address the existing challenges and gaps include • ensuring that all data are expressed in standardised form across NUTS2-level jurisdictions, • aligning the periods for which statistics are published with the multiannual planning cycles, and • ensuring that administrative data are communicated annually to conduct trend analysis.
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: Magnus Neubert (Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg)
    Abstract: What is the effect of state capacity on economic development? I argue that strong and centralised states are capable of mobilising the resources required to establish an efficient administration and provide public goods, which are preconditions for modern economic growth. To test this hypothesis, I consider the long-lasting division of Yugoslavia between the Habsburg and the Ottoman empire whose state capacity diverged enormously. I introduce a novel dataset of decomposed GDP, industrial labour force shares and state capacity of 344 micro-regions in Yugoslavia shortly after the dissolution of those empires. By applying a spatial regression discontinuity design along the imperial border, I find that the Habsburg empire had a substantial positive effect on economic development and state capacity. Three types of causal mechanism analysis allow me to estimate the causal effect of state capacity on economic development. I find that a one standard deviation increase in state capacity enhances GDP per capita by 8-11% and the industrial labour force by 21-29%. My results shed new light on the medium-term effects of state capacity on economic development and the mechanisms at work.
    Keywords: State Capacity, Economic Development, Habsburg Empire, Yugoslavia
    JEL: H41 H70 N14 O18 O43 R12
    Date: 2023–02
  8. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: December 14th, 2022, Viêt Nam with G7 countries plus Denmark and Norway issued a political declaration to establish a Just Energy Transition Partnership. This nonbinding agreement aims to mobilize at least 15.5-billion-USD over the next 3 to 5 years, half as private finance and half as public sector finance. To be prepared by November 2023, the Resource Mobilization Plan (RMP) should support Vietnam's green transition, including these quantified objectives: peaking electricity sector emissions at 170-MtCO2e in 2030; peaking the coal-fired power generation capacity at 30.2-GW; producing 47% of electricity from renewable sources in 2030. This report aims to establish a common understanding to ease the next step: the RMP negotiation. The story is about a group of rich countries seeking to help a middle-income country switch to renewable energy. It starts with a reminder of Vietnam's energy transition context, which has shown impressive gains in the last four years. It then describes the JETP mechanism as a country platform, reviewing the South Africa pathfinder to introduce the Vietnam case, before examining how JETP fit in the international 3nance and climate diplomacy context. Next, it analyzes the two sides of the deal: the pledge to increase the public and private financial Bows into Vietnam's energy sector and the promise to boost Vietnam's GHG emissions reductions. Afer discussing Justice, Technology Transfer, and Finance, the report concludes with a summary of the vision implicit in the JETP political declaration. A comprehensive bibliography on Vietnam's JETP, the verbatim JETP Political Declaration, excerpts from Vietnam's COP26 implementation plan, and our interview protocol including a detailed vision for the JETP implementation are annexed.
    Keywords: JETP, Vietnam, Energy transition, Development, Cooperation, Climate Finance
    Date: 2023–05
  9. By: Schmitz, Andrea
    Abstract: The religious policy innovations that Uzbekistan's President Mirziyoyev has initiated in the name of liberalisation and reform continue the policies of his predecessor in key aspects. Under the motto 'enlightenment against ignorance', state influence over the religious knowledge taught in educational and research institutions has been strengthened. The country's Islamic heritage is proactively used for representative purposes and held up as an integral part of national culture. The religious policy measures that amount to a 'secularisation' of Islam through scientification and musealisation do not reach large sections of society. For the ordinary believer, Islam is not a science but a matter of belief, a system of rules and convictions that guides the way they live. The liberalisation of the media landscape means that religious advice is available in abundance. It often includes propaganda transporting illiberal ideas, but the state intervenes only selectively. The liberalisation of religious policy has resulted in a growing Islamisation of the population. The authoritarian state headed by President Mirziyoyev is thus being consolidated. Repression remains the means of choice should Islamic milieus seriously challenge the secular state.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, President Mirziyoyev, Islam, Imam, Sharia, Muslim authorities, Koran, secularism, religious education, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IBU), Directorate of Muslims of Uzbekistan (DMU)
    Date: 2023

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