nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The Impact of the Transition and EU Membership on the Returns to Schooling in Europe By Patrinos, Harry A.; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica
  2. International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects By Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
  3. Closer to Finding Yeti By Tomas Micko; Alexander Karsay; Zuzana Mucka; Lucia Sramkova
  4. Agricultural Commodity Price Dynamics: Evidence from BVAR Models By Olga Bondarenko
  5. Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China By Mr. Waikei R Lam; Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
  6. An Empirical Study on the Holiday Effect of China's Time-Honored Companies By Xianyang Li; Jiayi Xu; Haoxuan Xu; Yunxuan Ma; Yu Zhong; Lei Wang
  7. Were COVID and the Great Recession Well-Being Reducing? By Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
  8. Youth Labor Force Participation, Education, and Human Capital in Asia, by Gender, 1990-2019 By Barbara M. Fraumeni
  9. Does courier gender matter? Exploring mode choice behaviour for E-groceries crowd-shipping in developing economies By Oleksandr Rossolov; Anastasiia Botsman; Serhii Lyfenko; Yusak O. Susilo
  10. Параметры фискальной политики Казахстана. // Parameters of Kazakhstan’s Fiscal Policy. By Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert; Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz

  1. By: Patrinos, Harry A. (World Bank); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (World Bank)
    Abstract: Countries across Eastern Europe and Central Asia are in their third decade of independence. What impact does this have on the skills premium and does accession to the European Union have an impact on the returns to education? The returns to education in 28 transition and 20 non-transition countries in Europe and Central Asia are analyzed using panel data analysis and difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of transition and EU accession. It is found that the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy increases the returns to schooling in post-socialist countries positively and significantly, especially through the EU accession channel.
    Keywords: returns to education, transition, technological change
    JEL: I26 J31
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
    Abstract: This paper studies international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by economic sanctions, and the associated welfare losses, in a calibrated, three-country model of the world economy. We assume that there are two production sectors in each country, and the sanctioned country has a comparative advantage in production of a commodity (for convenience, gas) needed to produce final, differentiated consumption goods. We consider three types of sanctions: sanctions on trade in final goods, financial sanctions, and gas trade sanctions. We calibrate the model to an aggregate of countries currently imposing sanctions on Russia (the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Russia, and an aggregate of third countries (China, India, and Turkey). We show that, instead of reflecting the success of sanctions, exchange rate movements reflect the type of sanctions and the direction of the resulting within-country sectoral reallocations. Our welfare analysis demonstrates that the sanctioned country’s welfare losses are significantly mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses are amplified, if the third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. These findings highlight the necessity, but also the challenge, of coordinating sanctions internationally.
    Keywords: Economic models; Exchange rates; International topics
    JEL: F31 F42 F51
    Date: 2023–08
  3. By: Tomas Micko (Council for Budget Responsibility); Alexander Karsay (Council for Budget Responsibility); Zuzana Mucka (Council for Budget Responsibility); Lucia Sramkova (Council for Budget Responsibility)
    Abstract: This paper offers a synthesis of several approaches to measuring output gap in Slovakia and serves as an update of the original CBR work Finding Yeti after almost a decade. A “suite of models” approach is estimated and assessed to provide advantages over single models. Following the recommendation of the EU IFIs guide suggesting no one-size-fits-all approach for measuring output gap, our family of methods consist of two unobserved component models, principal component model, semi-structural model and Modified Hamilton filter. We propose a novelty approach to weighting the individual models capturing recent structural innovations in the economy to construct one central estimate of the output gap. Such a robust estimate is maximising its overall plausibility and applicability to prudent fiscal policy assessment.
    Keywords: output gap, unobserved component, trend, cycle, plausibility, Bayesian analysis, estimation
    JEL: C11 C13 C32 E32 E62
    Date: 2023–08
  4. By: Olga Bondarenko (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: Agricultural commodity markets have experienced bouts of significant volatility in recent years, drawing the attention of policymakers all over the world. This paper studies the dynamics of wheat and corn prices since 1999 through the lens of standard BVAR models in the spirit of Kilian (2009) and Kilian and Murphy (2014). I use monthly revisions of the WASDE supply projections to overcome the problem of limited availability of high-frequency data and develop an indicator of aggregate demand for grains, following Baumeister et al. (2020). The estimated elasticities are generally consistent with theory and earlier studies and produce reasonable historical decompositions. Models are helpful in forecasting exercises, including conditional forecasts and alternative scenarios while they perform no better than the random walk in short-term unconditional forecasting.
    Keywords: commodity prices, corn, wheat, BVAR models, demand elasticity, supply elasticity, historical decomposition, USDA supply forecasts, WASDE
    JEL: C32 C51 Q11
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Mr. Waikei R Lam; Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
    Abstract: In this paper, we present the most comprehensive estimates of China’s government balance sheet to date. Based on these estimates, we show how major shifts in fiscal policy over the last two decades have shaped the health of the public sector prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that, at US$12.5 trillion, China has the largest stock of financial assets in the world. However, its net financial worth as a percent of GDP—though still higher than the large majority of countries—has declined over the last decade. This trend can be traced back to the turn of the century when China undertook a major restructuring of its state-owned enterprises but left important shortcomings in the intergovernmental fiscal system unaddressed. Compounding these risks, reform momentum stalled in the aftermath of the global financial crisis leading to high leverage and falling profitability among state-owned enterprises.
    Keywords: Balance Sheet; China; Debt; Deficit; Local government; State-owned Enterprises; Infrastructure
    Date: 2023–08–04
  6. By: Xianyang Li; Jiayi Xu; Haoxuan Xu; Yunxuan Ma; Yu Zhong; Lei Wang
    Abstract: The stock segment of China's time-honored brand enterprises has an important position in our securities stock market. The holiday effect is one of the market anomalies that occur in the securities market, which refers to the phenomenon that the stock market has significantly different returns than other trading days around festivals. The study of the holiday effect of China's time-honored brand enterprises can provide fresh ideas for the revitalization of our time-honored brands and the revitalization of time-honored enterprises. This paper takes listed companies of China's time-honored brand enterprises as the research object and focuses on the impact of the holiday effect on listed companies of China's time-honored brands with the help of the event study, and empirically analyses the changes in the return of listed companies of China time-honored brands during the Spring Festival period from 2012 to 2021. The empirical results reveal that: the time-honored brand concept stocks have a significant post-holiday effect during the Chinese New Year period, the time-honored alcoholic beverage enterprises are more sensitive to the Chinese New Year reflection, while the holiday effect of the time-honored pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises is not significant.
    Date: 2023–06
  7. By: Blanchflower, David G. (Dartmouth College); Bryson, Alex (University College London)
    Abstract: Using micro-data on six surveys – the Gallup World Poll 2005-2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993-2022, Eurobarometer 1991-2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020-2022, the European Social Survey 2002-2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018-2023 – we show individuals' reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe did decline in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020-2021 on most measures and on four bordering countries to Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission's Business and Consumer Surveys on people's expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country, all of which dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms' expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation's Humasn Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade or so reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.
    Keywords: subjective wellbeing, life satisfaction, expectations, Human Development Index, Great Recession, COVID-19
    JEL: I31
    Date: 2023–07
  8. By: Barbara M. Fraumeni
    Abstract: Of great importance to the future World economy is the future labor force of Asia, as Asia is by far the most populous region in the World. Expected future levels of education, very young and youth population, youth employment and unemployment, dependency rates, human capital per capita, and the sources of growth in the potential future labor force are described in this paper with an emphasis on differences by gender and differences across regions. Some comparisons between China and India and between Asia and selected other regions and aggregates are also included. Gini human capital coefficients are constructed for regions in Asia and the selected other regions and aggregates are constructed to reinforce the importance of recognizing gender in any analysis.
    JEL: I21 J16 J21 J24 O53
    Date: 2023–08
  9. By: Oleksandr Rossolov; Anastasiia Botsman; Serhii Lyfenko; Yusak O. Susilo
    Abstract: This paper examines the mode choice behaviour of people who may act as occasional couriers to provide crowd-shipping (CS) deliveries. Given its recent increase in popularity, online grocery services have become the main market for crowd-shipping deliveries' provider. The study included a behavioural survey, PTV Visum simulations and discrete choice behaviour modelling based on random utility maximization theory. Mode choice behaviour was examined by considering the gender heterogeneity of the occasional couriers in a multimodal urban transport network. The behavioural dataset was collected in the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, at the beginning of 2021. The results indicated that women were willing to provide CS service with 8% less remuneration than men. Women were also more likely to make 10% longer detours by car and metro than men, while male couriers were willing to implement 25% longer detours when travelling by bike or walking. Considering the integration of CS detours into the couriers' routine trip chains, women couriers were more likely to attach the CS trip to the work-shopping trip chain whilst men would use the home-home evening time trip chain. The estimated marginal probability effect indicated a higher detour time sensitivity with respect to expected profit and the relative detour costs of the couriers.
    Date: 2023–08
  10. By: Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В последние годы, особенно в свете глобальных кризисов, все большую популярность приобретает анализ фискальной политики с использованием концепции структурного баланса. Некоторые страны в целях преодоления проблемы процикличности и фискальной волатильности начали закреплять правовую базу для бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном балансе. Суть этого заключается в том, что фискальная политика, основанная на правилах, позволяет автоматическим стабилизаторам свободно работать в течение цикла и накапливать профицит бюджета в «хорошие» времена. Однако оценка структурного баланса сопряжена с рядом методологических проблем, включая степень неопределенности оценки. Настоящая работа посвящена изучению фискальной политики Республики Казахстан в период 2010 – 2022 годы путем оценивания циклически- скорректированного фискального баланса, ненефтяного фискального баланса и структурного фискального баланса с целью анализа характера фискальной политики Казахстана, в том числе с учетом сырьевой направленности нашей экономики. Результаты оценки свидетельствуют о тенденции к процикличности фискальной политики. Оценки, приведенные в данной работе, могут быть использованы для дальнейшего углубленного изучения характера фискальной политики Казахстана с использованием других методов, а также фискальными властями в целях закрепления бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном фискальном балансе. // In recent years, especially in the light of global crises, the fiscal policy analysis using the concept of structural balance has become increasingly popular. Some countries, in order to overcome the problem of pro-cyclicality and fiscal volatility, have begun to consolidate the legal framework for fiscal rules based on structural balance. The essence of this is that the rules-based fiscal policy allows automatic stabilizers to function freely through the cycle and build up budget surpluses in “good” times. However, the estimation of structural balance is associated with a number of methodological problems, including the degree of uncertainty in the estimation. This paper is devoted to the study of fiscal policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2010 – 2022 by estimating the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance, non-oil fiscal balance and structural fiscal balance in order to analyze the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy, also taking into account the raw-material orientation of our economy. The estimation results point to a trend towards a pro-cyclical fiscal policy. The estimates provided in this paper can be used for further in-depth study of the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy using other methods, as well as by the fiscal authorities in order to consolidate fiscal rules based on the structural fiscal balance.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, fiscal policy, tax and budget policy, fiscal expansion, government revenues, government expenditure, government spending, fiscal impulse, structural fiscal balance, budget deficit, non-oil deficit, oil revenues, output gap, budget revenue elasticity with respect to output gap, procyclical fiscal policy, Казахстан, фискальная политика, налогово-бюджетная политика, фискальная экспансия, государственные доходы, государственные расходы, фискальный импульс, структурный фискальный баланс, бюджетный дефицит, ненефтяной дефицит, нефтяные доходы, разрыв выпуска, эластичность доходов бюджета к разрыву выпуска, проциклическая фискальная политика
    JEL: E62 H61 H62
    Date: 2023

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