nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒28
nine papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The Black Sea as Mare clausum: Turkey's special role in the regional security architecture By Isachenko, Daria; Swistek, Göran
  2. Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads? By Christiane Baumeister
  3. Polish Finishers From Danish Piglets: Uncontrolled Transformation of Pig Industry in Poland By Olipra, Jakub
  4. The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022 to 2023 By James K. Galbraith
  5. Assessing the role of small farmers and households in agriculture and the rural economy and measures to support their sustainable development By Oleg Nivievskyi; Pavlo Iavorskyi; Oleksandr Donchenko
  6. The Heterogeneous Effects of Social Cues on Day Time and Night Time Electricity Usage, and Appliance Purchase: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Armenia By Yermone Sargsyan; Salim Turdaliev; Silvester van Koten
  7. Patterns in the mobility and ownership of private cars and alternative transport modes: the focus on Warsaw and Poland By Shahriar Akhavan; Maciej Grzenda; Anna Nicińska; Joanna Rachubik; Satia Rożynek; Jakub Zawieska; Grzegorz Kula
  8. Consolidating Germany's Russia policy: Refine existing approaches and clarify trade-offs By Stewart, Susan
  9. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland By Aleksandra Wiśniewska; Ewa Zawojska; Andrea Baldin; Joanna Rachubik

  1. By: Isachenko, Daria; Swistek, Göran
    Abstract: The Black Sea is a region of tension. It is the arena of the Russia-NATO confrontation while at the same time serving as a projection area for Russian and Turkish visions of regional order. Turkey's special role in the region stems primarily from the implementation of the Montreux Convention, which for much of the last century has meant a reduction in unilateral spheres of influence and dominance. The non-riparian states are supposed to be excluded. For Turkey, the Montreux Convention is a lever of power. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has enabled it to use this lever even more in the service of its own interests. NATO's room for manoeuvre, on the other hand, has been reduced in the current situation. Turkey is an essential element in the Alliance's collective defence. However, since the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine, NATO is no longer present in the Black Sea. This means that an important pillar of deterrence and defence is missing. In this respect, there is a dualism regarding the conceptions of order in the Black Sea region at two different levels: the regional and the global.
    Keywords: Black Sea, Black Sea Region, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Bosporus, Dardanelles, Sea of Marmara, Sea of Azov, Montreux Convention, Active Endeavour, Black Sea Harmony, BlackSeaFor, Tailored Forward Presence, deterrence and dialogue
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Christiane Baumeister
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of the global oil market by focusing on structural changes in each of the three main oil-producing countries. The demand side has responded to geopolitical developments by devising a set of policy tools to stabilize oil markets and counter inflationary pressures. In particular, the price cap policy was introduced to supplement the EU embargo on seaborne Russian oil exports, and record volumes of oil were released from government-controlled emergency stockpiles. The sources of oil price fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular focus on the heterogeneity in the pass-through of oil supply shocks within the Euro area.
    JEL: E31 E58 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2023–07
  3. By: Olipra, Jakub
    Abstract: Only 20 years ago, Poland was self-sufficient in pig production, being one of the key players in the European pig market. Since then a growing specialization of Poland in pig finishing and meat processing has been observed, while the domestic production of piglets has declined. As a consequence, Poland has lost its self-sufficiency in pig production and become strongly dependent on imports of piglets, mainly from Denmark. The aim of this paper is to summarize the evolution of the Polish pig industry and specify the main determinants of the Polish imports of Danish piglets. The results of the estimates using the vector error correction model (VECM) show that the volume of the Polish imports of piglets from Denmark may be explained by a degree of specialization of Poland in pig finishing, the phase of pig cycle, and the competitiveness of Polish pork. The results may be helpful in understanding the evolution of the Polish pig industry and its growing dependence on imports of piglets.
    Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2023–06–28
  4. By: James K. Galbraith (The University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: This essay analyzes a few prominent Western assessments, both official and private, of the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and war effort. It seeks to understand the main goals of sanctions, alongside bases of fact and causal inference that underpin the consensus view that sanctions have been highly effective so far. Such understanding may then help to clarify the relationship between claims made by economist-observers outside Russia and those emerging from sources inside Russia - notably from economists associated with the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - which draw sharply different inferences from the same facts. We conclude that when applied to a large, resource-rich, technically proficient economy, after a period of shock and adjustments, sanctions are isomorphic to a strict policy of trade protection, industrial policy, and capital controls. These are policies that the Russian government could not plausibly have implemented, even in 2022, on its own initiative.
    Keywords: Sanctions, Russia
    JEL: F51
    Date: 2023–04–10
  5. By: Oleg Nivievskyi; Pavlo Iavorskyi; Oleksandr Donchenko
    Abstract: The Ministry of Economy has an interest and demand in exploring how to increase the set of [legally registered] small family farmers in Ukraine and to examine more in details measures that could reduce the scale of the shadow agricultural market in Ukraine. Building upon the above political economy background and demand, we will be undertaking the analysis along the two separate but not totally independents streams of analysis, i.e. sustainable small scale (family) farming development and exploring the scale and measures for reducing the shadow agricultural market in Ukraine
    Date: 2023–04
  6. By: Yermone Sargsyan (Charles University, Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic); Salim Turdaliev (Charles University, Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic); Silvester van Koten (UJEP, Faculty of Social and Economic Studies, Usti nad Labem & CERGE-EI Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effectiveness of "nudges" through monthly peer comparison reports on household energy consumption in Yerevan, Armenia. We collected data from 300 households for a total of 8 months. While monthly peer comparison reports show no significant effect on energy consumption, we find strong and statistically significant heterogeneous treatment effects. Specifically, we find that households utilizing electricity as their primary heating source, households where the respondent is an educated female, and households with respondents aged 56 and above experienced a decrease in electricity usage as a result of the peer comparison reports. Moreover, we discover that high electricity consumers reduce their consumption significantly after receiving the reports. However, we also observe a small "boomerang" effect, whereby households in the lower quartile of electricity consumption slightly increase their usage in response to the reports. Furthermore, we find that the bulk of the reduction in electricity consumption comes from daytime consumption when the marginal cost of electricity is higher. Additionally, we explore the heterogeneous treatment effects of nudges on the investment in the physical stock of appliances.
    Keywords: demand side management, nudges, household energy consumption, peer comparison, developing country, heterogeneous treatment effects, electrical appliances
    JEL: Q4 Q53 Q48 Q58 C93
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: Shahriar Akhavan (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Maciej Grzenda (Warsaw University of Technology); Anna Nicińska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Joanna Rachubik (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Satia Rożynek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Jakub Zawieska (Warsaw School of Economics); Grzegorz Kula (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: This article presents an extensive analysis of the private ownership of cars and other transport modes in Warsaw, Poland, with a focus on understanding mobility patterns and exploring sustainable alternatives to private car usage. It provides a comprehensive description of car ownership trends, highlighting the high and growing number of cars per capita in Poland, particularly in Warsaw. The existing transport system in Warsaw, including the public transport network and related policies, is summarized. A literature review examines institutional, socio-economic, and individual factors influencing mobility behaviors and the dynamics of recent changes in car usage and alternative modes of transport. The analysis identifies barriers and opportunities for the adoption of sustainable mobility solutions, while discussing policy implications at the national and international levels.
    Keywords: mobility systems, car ownership, public transportation, consumer preferences, sustainable mobility, urban communities
    JEL: R41 R48 R53 R58 Q54 O18
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Stewart, Susan
    Abstract: Climate policy in the European Union (EU) and Germany changed significantly with the adoption of net-zero emissions targets. A key new development is the growing importance of carbon management. The umbrella term includes not only the capture and storage of CO2 (carbon capture and storage, CCS), but also CO2 capture and utilisation (carbon capture and utilisation, CCU) as well as the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR). It is important to provide clarity when differentiating between these approaches and identifying their relation to so-called residual emissions and hard-to-abate emissions. This is particularly important because it will determine the overall ambition of climate policy as well as shape future policy designs and their distributional impacts. Current policy and legislative processes should ensure that carbon management does not delay the phase-out of fossil fuels. New policy initiatives present an opportunity to actively shape the interface between ambitious climate and industrial policy.The "Zeitenwende" in international politics implies a need to improve strategic thinking and better prepare for future challenges. Germany is already doing so by drafting strategic documents on national security and relations with China. With respect to Russia, a similar approach suggests itself. First, because Russia's aggression against Ukraine has significantly worsened the situation in Europe and beyond for the foreseeable future. Second, because the conception of a Russia policy based on the principles declared since 2022 offers an opportunity to correct previous mistakes and transform measures that have emerged from a crisis situation into long-term policy.
    Keywords: "Zeitenwende", Germany's Russia policy, NATO, Ukraine, European Union (EU), USA, China, "Expanding Cooperation with Civil Society in the Eastern Partnership Countries and Russia" (ÖPR), energy policy
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Aleksandra Wiśniewska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Ewa Zawojska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Andrea Baldin (Ca’Foscari Univeristy of Venice, Copenhagen Business School); Joanna Rachubik (Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefits cannot be assessed through market transactions. While original non-market valuation studies require substantial budgets and time, a benefit transfer approach offers an alternative. It enables the application of empirical estimates from existing original studies conducted at one site to approximate the value at another site. This study provides the first international benefit transfer for performing arts and examines the reliability of various benefit transfer approaches. We use empirical data from two separate stated preference valuation surveys conducted in Denmark and in Poland. Our results suggest that the benefit function transfer accounting for differences in purchasing power parity between the countries can generate transfer errors as low as 3-6%, indicating high reliability of the transferred values.
    Keywords: international benefit transfer, performing arts, contingent valuation, discrete choice experiment, transfer errors
    JEL: Z11 Z18 D61 H40
    Date: 2023

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