nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒07‒24
twelve papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Global Grain Trade Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War By Ahn, Soojung; Kim, Dongin; Steinbach, Sandro
  2. Roma and Bureaucrats: A Field Experiment on Ethnic and Socioeconomic Discrimination By Mikula, Stepan; Montag, Josef
  3. Can a pursuit of productivity be reconciled with sustainable practices in small-scale farming? – Evidence from central and eastern Europe. By Czyżewski, Bazyli; Kryszak, Łukasz
  4. The Impact of Parenthood on Labour Market Outcomes of Women and Men in Poland By Radost Waszkiewicz; Honorata Bogusz
  5. War and Science in Ukraine By Ina Ganguli; Fabian Waldinger
  6. Labor Supply Effects of a Universal Cash Transfer By Gromadzki, Jan
  7. Debt Limit, Fiscal Space and Fiscal Fatigue in the Central and Eastern European Countries of EU By IANCU, AUREL; OLTEANU, DAN CONSTANTIN
  8. Damaged Collateral and Firm-Level Finance: Evidence from Russia's War in Ukraine By Shpak, Solomiya; Earle, John S.; Gehlbach, Scott; Panga, Mariia
  9. The EU can manage without Russian liquified natural gas By Ben McWilliams; Giovanni Sgaravatti; Simone Tagliapietra; Georg Zachmann
  10. Household Finance and Consumption Survey 2021: Results from Slovakia By Andrej Cupak; Judita Jurašeková Kucserová; Ján Klacso; Anna Strachotová
  11. Credit Supply or Demand? The Changing Role of Structural Market Forces in Bank Lending By Patrik Kupkovic
  12. Welfare as flourishing social reproduction: Polish and Ukrainian migrant workers in a market-participation society By Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, Gregory

  1. By: Ahn, Soojung; Kim, Dongin; Steinbach, Sandro
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Agribusiness
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University); Montag, Josef (Charles University, Prague)
    Abstract: This paper tests for discriminatory treatment of the Roma minority by public officials in the Czech Republic at the stage of initial contact preceding a potential application for unemployment benefit. Our correspondence experiment facilitates testing for the presence of each of two intertwined drivers of discrimination: ethnic animus and socioeconomic status prejudice. We find substantial evidence for the presence of discrimination based on both of these sources. Since Roma tend to have lower socioeconomic status, the two sources of discrimination compound for them.
    Keywords: discrimination, Roma, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, public services, social security, field experiment
    JEL: J15 D73 H55
    Date: 2023–06
  3. By: Czyżewski, Bazyli; Kryszak, Łukasz
    Abstract: Small farms constitute the vast majority of agricultural holdings in the world. Therefore, there are the questions of how the small farm sector should evolve and whether economic and environmental goals can be pursued simultaneously. The main objective of this article is to identify potential improvements (a non-radial inefficiency slack) in small farms in Central and Eastern Europe with different types of farming under an environmentally adjusted production function. Based on this, potential development pathways for small farms are assumed. A hybrid data envelopment analysis meta-frontier super-efficiency model with environmental proxies reflecting biodiversity (i.e. crops diversity, grassland, orchards, vineyards) and undesirable outputs (such as soil organic matter loss and GHG sources) and an uncontrollable policy input is used on a country-representative sample of 2320 small farms in four countries: Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Moldova. We found that the more technically efficient small farms are also usually more sustainable when socially desirable criteria were considered. Crops small farms can evolve in two directions: “landscape guardians” and “artisanal (traditional) framers.” Livestock farms could either maintain the status quo or choose an exit pathway. Mixed farms are likely to become landscape guardians, while a sustainable intensification path is open for 20% of farms that specialize in permanent crops.
    Keywords: Development of agriculture; Public goods; Eco-efficiency; Small farms; Sustainable agriculture; Agricultural policy
    JEL: C67 Q15
    Date: 2023–03–08
  4. By: Radost Waszkiewicz; Honorata Bogusz
    Abstract: Poland records one of the lowest gender wage gaps in Europe. At the same time, it is a socially conservative country where women's rights have been on the decline. We argue that, in the Polish context, the gender gap in income is a more appropriate measure of gendered labour market outcomes than the gap in the hourly wage. We analyse the gender gap in income in Poland in relation to the parenthood status, using the placebo event history method, adjusted to low resolution data, and the two waves of the Polish Generations and Gender Survey (2010, 2014). Contrary to similar studies conducted in Western Europe, our analysis uncovers a large degree of anticipatory behaviour in both women and men who expect to become parents. We show that mothers' income decreases by about 20% after birth, but converges to the income trajectory of non-mothers after 15 years. In contrast, the income of eventual fathers is higher than that of non-fathers both before and after birth, suggesting that the fatherhood child premium might be driven primarily by selection. We also demonstrate a permanent increase in hours worked for fathers, as opposed to non-fathers and a decrease in hours worked for mothers who converge to the trajectory of non-mothers after 15 years from the birth. Finally, we compare the gender gaps in income and wages of women and men in the sample with those of individuals in a counterfactual scenario where the entire population is childless. We find no statistically significant gender gaps in the counterfactual scenario, thereby concluding that the gender gaps in income and wages in Poland are driven by parenthood and most likely, by differences in labour market participation and hours worked.
    Date: 2023–06
  5. By: Ina Ganguli (University of Massachusetts Amherst); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich)
    Abstract: We discuss the impacts of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian science. Using newly collected data, we show that the war has already had significant effects on science in Ukraine: research papers produced by Ukrainian scientists declined by about 10%, approximately 5% of the most prolific scientists are publishing with a foreign affiliation, 22% of top universities have faced destruction of physical capital, and international collaborations with Russian scientists have declined by more than 40%. Drawing upon the economics of science and innovation literature, we highlight three primary channels through which wars impact science: 1) the loss of human capital, 2) the destruction of physical capital, and 3) reductions in international scientific cooperation. The evidence from the literature on the long-run effects of losing human or physical capital indicates that shocks to physical capital can be remedied more easily than shocks to human capital. Our new data also suggests that human capital shocks are the main drivers of the reduction in Ukrainian research output that has occurred since the beginning of the war. Hence, reconstruction efforts should be focused on supporting scientists to continue in the research sector and to return to Ukraine after the war has ended.
    Keywords: war and science; scientific human capital; physical capital destruction; international migration; international scientific cooperation;
    JEL: H52 I23 I25 J44 J61 J62 O38 O52
    Date: 2023–06–21
  6. By: Gromadzki, Jan (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of a large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the income effects of the monthly transfer in a difference-in-differences design. On average, the marginal propensity to earn out of unearned income was equal to -0.14. For every extra 100 dollars in monthly child benefit transfers households receive, they spend 43 dollars on consumption and save 43 dollars. Additional evidence shows that the program had a positive impact on investments in human capital and home production efficiency.
    Keywords: unconditional cash transfer, income effects, labor supply, child benefit, poverty, difference-in-differences
    JEL: I38 J21 J22
    Date: 2023–05
  7. By: IANCU, AUREL (National Institute for Economic Research - Romanian Academy); OLTEANU, DAN CONSTANTIN (National Institute for Economic Research - Romanian Academy)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the correlation between the primary budget balance and the public debt over the last two decades, for a panel of 12 countries from Central and Eastern Europe, in order to assess their debt sustainability, the level of debt at which fiscal fatigue may occur, as well as the degree of risk of fiscal fatigue, depending on the past and future evolution of public debt. First, using estimates of the cubic fiscal reaction function and two variants (quadratic / linear) of the financing cost function, we determined the equilibrium level of public debt as percentage of GDP, the” fiscal fatigue” point and the debt limit, for the whole panel and for each country. Second, by using the common (from panel regressions) and country-specific coefficients, and public debt projection for 10 and 5 years, we evaluated the level of risk for fiscal fatigue, in relation to the future evolution of public debt and other financial indicators.
    Keywords: primary balance, public debt, fiscal policy, fiscal space, fiscal fatigue
    JEL: H61 H62 H63 H68 E62
    Date: 2023–06
  8. By: Shpak, Solomiya; Earle, John S.; Gehlbach, Scott; Panga, Mariia
    Abstract: How much has Russia's war in Ukraine damaged the collateral of Ukrainian firms, and how much damage has that caused the Ukrainian financial system? We address this question using unusually rich high-frequency supervisory data of Ukrainian banks combined with a survey of banks on the location and condition of corporate borrowers' collateral between February and November 2022. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in collateral value resulting from damage to collateral, we find that a 10-percent reduction in the collateral-loan ratio lowers the probability of getting any new loan by nearly eight percentage points; new lending falls by over two percentage points. Our results additionally imply that the same reduction in collateral value raises default rates and banks' assessment of firms' probability of default by approximately eight and four percentage points, respectively. The results imply that, in the absence of sufficient aid to repair the damage, Ukraine may experience reduced investment and lower economic growth in the future.
    Date: 2023–06–28
  9. By: Ben McWilliams; Giovanni Sgaravatti; Simone Tagliapietra; Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: How can the European Union achieve its target of eliminating all Russian fossil-fuel imports by 2027?
    Date: 2023–06
  10. By: Andrej Cupak (National Bank of Slovakia); Judita Jurašeková Kucserová (National Bank of Slovakia); Ján Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Anna Strachotová (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: This report presents the main findings from the fourth wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) conducted in Slovakia in 2021. The survey provides a structural overview of information about household assets, liabilities, income and consumption, extended by indicators regarding financial literacy, labour market effects of the pandemic, and measures of household expectations. We find that median household net wealth stood at more than €97, 000 in 2021, up from €70, 000 in the previous survey wave in 2017. This rapid appreciation was mainly due to a remarkable increase in real estate prices over the considered period. Household assets remain substantially concentrated towards real estate, which account for nearly 80% of all household assets. Households continue to be conservative also in terms of financial assets, holding mainly risk-free deposits or low-yield savings accounts. Only 6% of households hold investment-based financial assets such as shares, bonds, or mutual funds. Relatively poor inclusion in financial markets is coupled with low levels of financial literacy of the Slovak population; however, we observe a slight improvement since 2014. While the level of household indebtedness increased substantially between 2017 and 2021, there was some moderation in debt burden indicators (such as LTV and DSTI ratios) mainly due to tighter borrowerbased measures. Given the steep rise in value of owner-occupied housing and growth in labour income, both wealth and income inequality declined and hence ensured more equal distribution of economic resources across society.
    Date: 2023–05
  11. By: Patrik Kupkovic (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis, the European Debt Crisis, and the recent COVID-19 Crisis have repeatedly demonstrated that disruptions in credit markets can have serious macroeconomic consequences. This paper aims to assess the structural drivers of the NFCs bank lending market, as bank lending dominates the credit markets in the euro area, and to determine its macroeconomic consequences. To study these effects, we use structural VAR methodology with a modified identification scheme and modified variable selection compared to what is usually found in the literature. As an empirical illustration, we analyze the importance of the bank lending market in a small, open and bank-based euro area economy - Slovakia. The results show that loan demand shocks (loans demanded by firms) are at least as important as credit supply shocks (loans supplied by banks) in the lending market and that this importance changes over the cycle. These findings have important policy implications, as responding to these shocks may require different policy measures. Contributions to the literature are (i) new empirical evidence on the macroeconomic importance of loan demand shocks compared to credit supply shocks and (ii) new country-specific modification of structural VAR methodology.
    JEL: C32 E51 G01
    Date: 2023–06
  12. By: Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, Gregory
    Abstract: The historical link between labour and welfare is increasingly considered in the transnational register, largely because labour mobilities demand a rethinking of nation-based social protection systems. Transnational labour mobilities also illuminate other dimensions of boundary-crossing, including formality–informality, citizenship–non-citizenship and production–reproduction. These additional considerations call for going beyond the problem of transnational welfare access. We argue that the prism of social reproduction enables such a rethinking of the labour–welfare relationship. In this article, we conceptualise an expanded notion of welfare as flourishing social reproduction, in contradistinction to the principle of welfare deriving primarily from paid work and labour market participation. We apply this theorisation of welfare to our qualitative case study of the experiences and interests of Polish and Ukrainian migrant workers in Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom employed in care provision, food production and housing construction sectors. In the geopolitical setting of uneven and combined Europe, embodying high levels of differentiation together with advanced transnational social protection, we explore the role of differentiation of migrants in labour markets (along work, migration and citizenship axes) and the extent to which transnational mobility facilitates the improvement of social reproduction. While the low-waged labour of Polish and Ukrainian men and women working in care, food and housing furnishes their own and local workers’ social reproduction needs, we find that migrant workers’ welfare as flourishing social reproduction remains wanting, even for those with already privileged access to the current ‘gold-standard’ transnational social protection offered by the EUs freedoms of movement framework. Welfare remains centred on individualised paid work logic, leaving a vast range of needs unmet and work and workers excluded, bearing implications for prevalent transnational social protection efforts.
    Keywords: social reproduction; transnational mobility; labour; welfare; gender; Poland; Ukraine; Department of Gender Studies; GRF 2019-2021; Sage deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–06–09

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