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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Németh, András Olivér; Németh, Petra; Tőkés, László |
| Abstract: | The aim of our research is to understand and reveal the key economic, demographic, labour market, and other factors behind the common fertility trends of CEE countries in the past decades. Our main research question is what driving forces played a role in the development of the total fertility rate in the CEE countries compared to the rest of Europe, if any. We measure the effect of potential influential factors on fertility with a multiple regression using the ordinary least squares method. We use macro-level data from 27 countries of the European Union with special attention to the 11 CEE countries (namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Based on the availability of data, our examination period lasts from 1995 to 2020. Our results suggest that fertility in the CEE countries is much more sensitive to the state of the economy than in other European countries. Moreover, some of the demographic variables that are closely related to childbirth, also have a more recognisable effect on the TFR than in other parts of Europe. On the other hand, labour market and policy variables seem to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | fertility, Central and Eastern European countries, demographic economics, economic uncertainty, panel data methods |
| JEL: | C33 J11 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2023–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2023/02&r=tra |
| By: | Tho Pham (University of York); Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham); Zhuangchen Wu (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the short- and medium-term impacts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war on the labor market for Ukrainian workers. Using a unique dataset of 5.4 million online job ads for Ukrainian job seekers in Poland and Ukraine over the 2021-2022 period, we show a short-term surge in demand for Ukrainians to work in Poland while the number of jobs in Ukraine is relatively stable. Since February 2022, the demand for soft and analytical skills in Ukraine has increased, while the demand for such skills in Poland has remained the same. Moreover, there is variation in labor demand depending on skills level and occupational gender segregation. Further analysis suggests a persistent shift (to the left) in wage distribution driven by both the decline of wages within job titles and the change in job composition. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, forced migration, stayers, wage, Ukraine-Russia war, online vacancies |
| JEL: | J20 J30 J61 N30 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:23-03&r=tra |
| By: | Wittwer, Glyn |
| Abstract: | The TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) methodology has been applied to many countries over the past two decades to model sub-national regional impacts of policy scenarios. The methodology does not rely on sub-national regional input-output tables. Instead, estimates of regional activity shares are used to split a national CGE database into regions. Activity shares are based on industry by region employment numbers extracted from census data, regional agricultural and mining activity data and international trade data by port. EuroTERM provides an example of extending the TERM methodology. First, the GTAP master database is aggregated for non-European nations while keeping 31 European nations plus Russia, Ukraine and Moldova (proxied by Rest of Eastern Europe) represented separately. The database is reconfigured to 34 individual CGE databases. Using NUTS2 data based on similar raw data as TERM, regional shares are estimated. Eurostats is the main source of these data. Regional shares provide the basis for splitting 24 European CGE databases to the NUTS-2 level. The other 10 nations remain as single regions. Industry cost structures or technologies are based on GTAP data for each nation. This approach differs from single-nation TERM, in which a single industry technology applies to each region. The methodology used to estimate inter-regional trades in TERM has been modified to accommodate matrices of known international trades from GTAP, while splitting origins and destinations into sub-national regions. Port activity data also contribute to estimation of sub-national trade matrices. Electricity Global data on power plants by location have contributed to a split of electricity into 9 generating sectors plus distribution. The war in Ukraine has provided motivation for adding Ukraine, represented by 24 oblasts plus Kyiv city. The EuroTERM master database at present includes 74 sectors in 322 regions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333470&r=tra |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to present a complex nonlinear modelling approach to analyzing mixed capitalist economic systems. An application of a more elaborate version of this model is to explore the consequences of sanctions on the Russian economy and evaluate the model’s predictive successes or failures. Furthermore, the formal expanded nonlinear model presented in the appendix may be seen as an initial step to put the analysis of economic sanctions within a formal complex socio-economic systems framework. The results obtained from this structural complex multisectoral model so far seem fairly accurate in terms of agreement with measured values of observable economic variables. The political consequences are uncertain and are to be explored separately in a companion paper and ultimately in a book length treatment. Methodologically, the paper also presents the case for using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based models for understanding problems of analyzing sanctions in an economywide context. Linear as well as Nonlinear models are presented in the appendix. The nonlinear modelling approach might prove to be especially relevant for studying the properties of multiple equilibria and complex dynamics. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, complex system modelling, SAM, Russia, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics |
| JEL: | C3 C6 F5 |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116806&r=tra |
| By: | Vladimir Gimpelson (University of Wisconsin–Madison); Rostislav Kapeliushnikov (HSE University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we explore the changing employment structure in the Russian economy since 2000. Does it change through a consequent substitution of relatively worse (in terms of quality) jobs by better jobs? Or through the destruction of middle quality jobs? Or do we observe stagnation and conservation of the job structure? Structural change of this sort can be brought by various factors among which technological progress and international trade that shape demand for labor of different quality and complexity play a special role. In search for clues to these questions, the authors use large data sets that cover two sub-periods divided by the 2008/9 crisis. The estimates presented in the paper allow the rejection of the polarization hypothesis, and they document a fast upgrade of the job structure during the 1st sub-period and a stalemate during the 2nd one. Apparently, risks of job polarization are likely to be minimal until economic growth is recovered and a movement to the technological frontier is accelerated. |
| Keywords: | occupational change, employment, job polarisation, upgrading, jobs |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202303&r=tra |
| By: | Ioannou, Demosthenes; Pérez, Javier J.; Balteanu, Irina; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Geeroms, Hans; Vansteenkiste, Isabel; Weber, Pierre-François; Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Buysse, Kristel; Campos, Rodolfo; Clancy, Daragh; Essers, Dennis; Faccia, Donata; Freier, Maximilian; Gerinovics, Rinalds; Khalil, Makram; Kosterink, Patrick; Mancini, Michele; Manrique, Marta; McQuade, Peter; Molitor, Philippe; Pulst, Daniela; Timini, Jacopo; Van Schaik, Ilona; Valenta, Vilém; Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo; Viani, Francesca; Viilmann, Natalja; Almeida, Ana M.; Alonso, Daniel; Bencivelli, Lorenzo; Borgogno, Oscar; Borrallo, Fructuoso; Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía; Di Stefano, Enrica; Esser, Andreas; García-Lecuona, María; Habib, Maurizio; Jeudy, Bruno-Philippe; Lájer, Andrés; Le Gallo, Florian; Martonosi, Ádám; Millaruelo, Antonio; Miola, Andrea; Négrin, Pauline; Zangrandi, Michele Savini; Strobel, Felix; Tylko-Tylczynska, Kalina Paula |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU's economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU's OSA policy agenda which extend to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB's monetary policy and other policies. JEL Classification: F0, F10, F30, F4, F5, F45, E42, L5, Q43 |
| Keywords: | capital flows, European Central Bank, European Economic and Monetary Union, financial market infrastructures, financial stability, geoeconomics, geopolitics, globalisation, global value chains, industrial policy, international trade, monetary policy, multilateralism, Open Strategic Autonomy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023311&r=tra |
| By: | François Geerolf (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In a controversial policy paper, Bachmann et al. (2022) argued back in March 2022 that the economic effects for Germany of a complete immediate stop of energy imports from Russia would be small, between 0.5% and 3% of GDP loss. A few weeks later, Baqaee et al. (2022) even presented 0.3% GDP loss in the case of an embargo as the headline number, in a follow-up report for the French Council of Economic Analysis (CAE). This note argues that these estimates are both problematic from a scientific point of view, and also strongly biased towards finding small effects of a gas embargo: this is true of the (socalled) "Baqaee-Farhi approach" arriving at 0.2-0.3% of GDP, the "production function approach" arriving at 1.5% to 2.3% of GDP, as well as the "sufficient statistics approach" (also based on Baqaee-Farhi) arriving at 1% of GDP. This note argues that Olaf Scholz was correct in saying that the mathematical models which were used "don't really work" here, and tries to explain why. In any case, these models do not permit such categorical statements. |
| Keywords: | energy, sanctions, economic models |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04015954&r=tra |
| By: | Martin, Will; Minot, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; error correction model; food prices; food price crisis; models; price stabilization; wheat; shocks; cointegration; ECM; price insulation; Ukraine war |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2175&r=tra |