nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒03‒13
seven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Rapid Economic Growth but Rising Poverty Segregation: Will Vietnam Meet the SDGs for Equitable Development? By Dang, Hai-Anh; Dhongde, Shatakshee; Do, Minh N.N.; Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Pimhidzai, Obert
  2. Transformating housing ownership in Ukraine-2022: residential buildings property before distruction and after restoration By Vsevolod Nikolaiev; Andrii Shcherbyna
  3. Policies to strengthen the resilience of global value chains: Empirical evidence from the COVID-19 shock By Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
  4. Warning: Some Transaction Prices can be Detrimental to your House Price Index By Robert Hill; Norbert Pfeifer; Miriam Steurer; Radoslaw Trojanek
  5. Global value chain dependencies under the magnifying glass By Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek; Ricardo Chiapin Pechansky; Charles Cadestin
  6. "Social movement and economic statistics in interwar Poland. Building an alternative expert knowledge on the condition of the working class" By Morgane Labbe
  7. Good Will Hunting: Do Disasters Make Us More Charitable? By Mr. Serhan Cevik

  1. By: Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Dhongde, Shatakshee (Georgia Institute of Technology); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam); Pimhidzai, Obert (World Bank)
    Abstract: Vietnam is widely regarded as a success story for its impressive economic growth and poverty reduction in the last few decades. Yet, recent evidence indicates that the country's economic growth has not been uniform. Compiling and analyzing new extensive province-level data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) for every alternate year between 2002 and 2020 and other data sources, we find within-province inequality to be much larger than between-province inequality. Furthermore, this inequality gap is rising over time. Despite the country's fast poverty reduction, the poor were increasingly segregated in certain provinces. We find beneficial impact of economic growth on poverty reduction, but this can depend on inequality levels. We also find greater inequality to have negative impact on economic growth and poverty reduction. Our results suggest that policy makers in Vietnam should focus on reducing spatial disparities and income inequality in order to attain sustainable economic development.
    Keywords: poverty, inequality, pro-poor growth, convergence, household surveys, Vietnam
    JEL: C15 D31 I31 O10 O57
    Date: 2023–02
  2. By: Vsevolod Nikolaiev; Andrii Shcherbyna
    Abstract: The following article briefly reflects the author’s progress in their complex research of specific Ukrainian problems of total housing privatization resulting in utility debts and housing stock degradation together with rising subsidies, as well as deformed condominium model without real estate object and weak residential building management. The aim of the article is to show the root of the problem which is connected with wrong property relations and to find common way out. Unlike other authors from East European countries, we base our methodology on the proof that significant part of citizens cannot afford maintenance, operation and renovation of their housing and that the public funding of homeowners is unfair and must be transformed into property exchange instead of subsidizing. To simplify this process Ukrainian wrong condominium model with ownership on individual apartment has to be transformed into housing corporation with shared ownership on land plot and whole building. Next, the shares of the company could be divided on virtual tokens represented the part of the property which could be exchanged for money. The proposed mechanism has additional advantages in case of construction and reconstruction financing, social and private renting housing development, housing management companies stimulating. The model could be used in other East European countries with the similar problems.The problem has acquired particular importance in connection with the destruction of a significant part of residential buildings during the Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022. New construction and restoration of housing will require fundamentally new property relations, free from existing shortcomings.
    Keywords: assets; Ownership; Restoration; Subsidies
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01
  3. By: Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
    Abstract: Widespread supply disruptions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have raised concerns among policy makers that globalised value chains expose domestic production to shocks from abroad. This paper uses new indicators of global value chain dependencies and exogenous pandemic shocks to econometrically estimate the effects of supply disruptions abroad on domestic output. The results suggest that the adverse effects of supply disruptions are particularly large when concentration of supplying countries and supplying firms is high. Counterfactual simulations of the econometric model suggest that diversification of suppliers would have sizeable benefits in terms of shielding domestic production against country-specific supply shocks, with partial onshoring of production having only small additional benefits. Technological innovation that reduces foreign dependencies, such as the substitution of renewable energies for fossil fuels, can have similar benefits as diversification.
    Keywords: global value chains, international trade, resiliance
    JEL: F14 F68 L52
    Date: 2023–02–21
  4. By: Robert Hill; Norbert Pfeifer; Miriam Steurer; Radoslaw Trojanek
    Abstract: There is a broad consensus in international statistical organizations such as Eurostat, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund that price indices should be constructed using transaction data. However, transaction data often lag behind actual market developments in the housing market for new-built properties as prices are typically set months or years before transactions are finalized. We find that for two large Polish cities (Warsaw and Poznan), house price indices (HPIs) for existing properties lead indices for new builds by, on average, eight quarters. In Poland and other countries with large markets for new-builds, this lag can dramatically distort National HPIs. The lag also affects the European Union’s flagship measure of inflation, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). This is because the HICP includes owner-occupied housing (on an experimental basis) using exclusively transaction data for new-built properties. We illustrate here that the timeliness issue in the price index for new-built properties disappears when preliminary agreements are used instead of transactions in the compilation of the index.
    Keywords: Dissimilarity metric; Hedonic indices; Macroprudential supervision; Primary and secondary housing market
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01
  5. By: Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek; Ricardo Chiapin Pechansky; Charles Cadestin
    Abstract: Policy makers are increasingly grappling with the stability implications of global value chains (GVCs), as widespread supply shortages following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have disrupted the economic recovery and contributed to high inflation. This paper provides a tool to assess vulnerabilities in GVCs by drawing a detailed map of dependencies based on new indicators constructed from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables. The key findings are as follows. First, GVC dependencies increase with both the size of foreign exposures and the length of foreign value chains. Second, in some industries, such as the automotive and ICT industries, vulnerabilities from high GVC dependence are amplified by high geographic concentration of suppliers or buyers. Third, the People’s Republic of China is the most critical choke point in GVCs across a broad range of industries, both as a dominant supplier and as a dominant buyer.
    Keywords: global value chains, international trade, resilience
    JEL: F14 F68 L52
    Date: 2023–03–01
  6. By: Morgane Labbe (CRH (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - Centre de Recherches Historiques (CRH) _ Unité Mixte de Recherches (UMR 8558 CNRS / EHESS) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The growth and operation of welfare states were accompanied by a considerable public production of statistical information describing the living and working conditions of populations. However, this information was also produced by private actors (workers' unions, associations, etc.), who collected their own data either in addition to or in opposition to the publicly collected data. This was particularly the case in Poland between the two world wars: this new state aimed to take up the challenge of creating a modern system of economic and social information, but, faced with the financial crises that made a large part of the population insecure, it found itself rivalled and overtaken by the provision of information by private institutes representing workers' unions. These private institutes often pre-existed the state itself and had previously represented the voice of the populations of the Polish territories under imperial rule. This chapter shows how a private institute, the Institute of Social Economics, helped to set up a statistical information system concerning wages and prices and to organize a survey on the budgets of workers' families both in partnership and rivalry with the Polish Statistical Office in order to construct a cost-of-living index.
    Keywords: history of Poland, Economic Exchange, Cost of living index, Welfare state, World war 1
    Date: 2022–03–29
  7. By: Mr. Serhan Cevik
    Abstract: Humans are usually compassionate, caring and empathetic toward others, but are we really hardwired for altruism when a disaster hits? There is evidence that people exposed to natural disasters tend to behave more philanthropically, but most studies rely on small-scale surveys and experimental data. For that reason, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether the COVID-19 pandemic has altered prosocial tendencies and charitable donations, using a novel daily dataset of debit and credit card transactions. I conduct a real-time analysis of actual charitable donations in three European countries and find that the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions have no significant effect on how much people contribute to charities as a share of total spending. A higher preference for precautionary savings in the midst of the pandemic appears to outweigh altruistic behavior, while government welfare programs crowds out private charitable donations.
    Keywords: Natural disasters; COVID-19 pandemic; charitable giving; donations; genorosity; prosocial behavior; card transactions; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithania
    Date: 2023–02–03

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