nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒02‒20
seven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine By Neuenkirch, Matthias; Repko, Maria; Weber, Enzo
  2. The end of Londongrad? The impact of beneficial ownership transparency on offshore investment in UK property By Matthew Collin; Florian M. Hollenbach; David Szakonyi
  3. Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises By Richard S. J. Tol
  4. Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia? By Nataliia Ostapenko
  5. Frontline workers in education, health and welfare: how much do they earn in European countries? A comparative income analysis based on the EU-LFS By Lehwess-Litzmann, René
  6. Enhancing intellectual property use for a stronger innovation ecosystem in Poland By Tony Clayton; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Hélène Dernis; Laurence Joly; Victoria Magdalinski; Laurent Moussiegt; Mark Schankerman
  7. Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe By Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza

  1. By: Neuenkirch, Matthias (University of Trier ; CESifo, Munich); Repko, Maria (Centre for Economic Strategy, Kyiv); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg ; Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS))
    Abstract: "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. News from the war became a dominating factor for international politics and the world economy. In this paper, we analyse how international financial markets perceived this news, especially on Western positions. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a negative impact in the first weeks of the war. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived it as a risk of further escalation threatening global economic activity. However, we find the perceptions strongly changed when the Ukrainian position in the war improved. Since that time, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets. The results also confirm that the war and escalation in general had harmful effects on international financial markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    Date: 2023–01–30
  2. By: Matthew Collin; Florian M. Hollenbach; David Szakonyi
    Abstract: The United Kingdom's (UK) property markets are thought to be a common destination for corrupt and criminal assets and money laundering, with investment often through offshore shell companies. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we study the impact of the introduction of a policy in the UK intended to increase transparency and eliminate the anonymous ownership of property by requiring offshore companies to file their ultimate beneficial owners on a public register.
    Keywords: Money laundering, Real property, Ownership, Transparency, Tax evasion, Corruption
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Richard S. J. Tol
    Abstract: There are many indicators of energy security. Few measure what really matters -- affordable and reliable energy supply -- and the trade-offs between the two. Reliability is physical, affordability is economic. Russia's latest invasion of Ukraine highlights some of the problems with energy security, from long-term contracts being broken to supposedly secure supplies being diverted to retired power plants being recommissioned to spillovers to other markets. The transition to carbon-free energy poses new challenges for energy security, from a shift in dependence from some resources (coal, oil, gas) to others (rare earths, wind, sunshine) to substantial redundancies in the energy capital stock to undercapitalized energy companies, while regulatory uncertainty deters investment. Renewables improve energy security in one dimension, but worsen it in others, particularly long spells of little wind. Security problems with rare earths and borrowed capital are less pronounced, as stock rather than flow.
    Date: 2023–01
  4. By: Nataliia Ostapenko (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: The paper compares different output gap measures regarding their real-time reliability and usefulness for predicting inflation in Slovakia. The results indicate that estimated cycles from the Modified Hamilton filter, a Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Vector Autoregression and a Dynamic Factor Model are economically reasonable, similar in magnitudes to the official central bank estimate and, more importantly, stable over time. Furthermore, among all compared output gap estimates, the gap from the Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression can predict Slovak inflation better than other estimates of the cyclical position until the recent period of high inflation in 2021–2022.
    JEL: C11 C32 E31 E32
    Date: 2022–10
  5. By: Lehwess-Litzmann, René
    Abstract: The present paper analyses frontline workers’ incomes in the fields of education, health, and welfare (“EHW”). In the face of an upsurge in demand for such services, the question is how EHW occupations can attract enough qualified workers, now and in the future. In public perception, EHW work is poorly paid, while empirically, wage heterogeneity between occupations is quite large. A comprehensive comparison of EHW occupations’ wages across Europe is still lacking. The present contribution seeks to fill this gap by comparing incomes for 24 European countries, based on data from the European Union’s labour force survey (EU-LFS) between 2016 and 2020. Our descriptive analysis yields that EHW workers earn slightly above-average incomes in the majority of countries. This result can be explained by the high share of EHW workers with a tertiary education level. By contrast, for EHW workers with only secondary education, we find that they earn less in EHW than in other labour-market segments. Both outside and inside the EHW, we observe higher incomes for men than for women. Between EHW occupations, there is an income hierarchy led by medical doctors and tertiary education teachers. At the lower end, there are personal care workers with lower formal education who earn below-average incomes in all observed countries. Yet the degree to which they are penalised differs widely. From a dynamic perspective, our findings hint at a slightly deteriorating relative income position of EHW workers in the 2010s, apparently caused less by declining wages than by structural change in the wider labour market.
    Keywords: income, care work, inequality, Europe
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Tony Clayton; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Hélène Dernis; Laurence Joly; Victoria Magdalinski; Laurent Moussiegt; Mark Schankerman
    Abstract: The paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the strengths and limitations of the intellectual property (IP) system in Poland. It offers policy recommendations to fully exploit the potential of IP to support an innovation-based economy. It finds that the key components of an effective IP strategy in Poland should include the promotion of IP use among economic actors and other stakeholders as well as information campaigns and training programmes to raise awareness and knowledge about the advantages of IP. Recommendations also include reducing barriers to IP use by lowering the costs of and simplifying IP-related procedures, and promoting the valorisation of IP held by universities to enhance technology transfer to the business sector.
    Date: 2023–02–09
  7. By: Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza
    Abstract: European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits.
    JEL: F1 F16
    Date: 2023–01

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