nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2023‒02‒13
twelve papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Korean Defense Exports By Sim, Soonhyung
  2. Sanctions on Russia, Aid to Ukraine, and Energy for Germany By Teodora Boneva; Armin Falk; Mark Fallak; Lasse Stötzer
  3. Authoritarian durability, prospects of change and individual behavior: evidence from a survey experiment in Russia By Michael Rochlitz; Olga Masyutina; Koen Schoors; Yulia Khalikova
  4. History and development of the banking sector in Kosovo By Zogjani, Jeton; Kovaci-Uruci, Fife
  5. Supporting Sustainable Financing and Access to Finance in Armenia By Kiichi Tokuoka; Maria Atamanchuk
  6. Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model By Feng, Fan; Jia, Ningyuan; Lin, Faqin
  7. Uzbekistan's Transition to Inflation Targeting By Ezequiel Cabezon; Moayad Al Rasasi
  8. House Price Expectations, Household Indebtedness and Macroprudential Policy in Slovakia By Indrani Manna; Martin Suster; Biswajit Banerjee
  9. Pharmaceutical services in Romania during the COVID-19 pandemic By Stefan, Bruno
  10. Incorporating Individual Retail Loan Data into the Macro Stress Testing Framework By Jan Klacso
  11. Sustainable E-commerce Logistics for Customer Satisfaction: Evidence from Vietnam By Nguyen, Phi Dung; Huynh, Cong Minh
  12. Financial Constraints, Productivity, and Investment: Evidence from Lithuania By Ms. Yu Shi; Karim Foda; Maryam Vaziri

  1. By: Sim, Soonhyung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: On February 24, Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine. Contrary to initial expectations that the war would end early, strong resistance by the Ukrainian army and the incompetence of the Russian army overlapped, and the war is showing signs of prolongation. A long war seems inevitable as Ukraine’s resistance, backed by Western military support, intensifies and the armistice agreement faces difficulties. This paper explores the threats faced the Korean defense industry as well as opportunities for export growth amid a rapidly evolving global security order. A review of relevant defense data finds that, in order for Korean defense exports to take a leap forward, it is necessary to take full advantage of security gaps in Europe that the war in Ukraine has exposed. Especially, it is crucial to establish an export strategy that takes advantage of Europe’s common security and defense policy.
    Keywords: defense; defense industry; defense exports; Russia-Ukraine war; weapons exports; weapons manufacturing; arms exports; arms manufacturing; EU; Russia; Ukraine; United States; Korea
    JEL: F13 L64
    Date: 2023–01–11
  2. By: Teodora Boneva; Armin Falk; Mark Fallak; Lasse Stötzer
    Abstract: According to a representative briq survey, more than two-thirds of the German population would support a halt to energy imports from Russia in order to increase pressure on the Russian government. A broad ma- jority would also welcome additional measures to reduce energy dependence, including alternative energy sources and energy-saving. When it comes to helping the Ukrainian people, many of the respondents would support both aid and integration policies, including permanent residence and work permits for refugees. Germans are divided, however, on the question of further arms deliveries to Ukraine.
    Date: 2022–04
  3. By: Michael Rochlitz; Olga Masyutina; Koen Schoors; Yulia Khalikova (-)
    Abstract: How does the prospect of an autocrat remaining in office affect individual expectations and behavior? To answer this question, we implemented a survey experiment in May 2021 in Russia by treating respondents with three hypothetical outcomes of the 2024 Russian presidential elections – Vladimir Putin remaining in office, his close associate Sergei Shoigu winning the elections, or a young reformer becoming president. Respondents then had to answer a range of questions on individual expectations and intended behavior. We find that respondents agree on economic stagnation being a concern under Putin, but not under the two political alternatives. For most other questions, we find a strong division along political lines, as well as – less systematically – with respect to income, age and education. Most importantly, we find that pro-regime respondents were more likely to invest and be economically active under Putin, despite concerns about economic stagnation. Our results show the importance of regime legitimacy for individual incentives, and provide an explanation why unpopular authoritarian regimes might be less economically successful.
    Keywords: authoritarian durability, individual attitudes, economic incentives, survey experiment, Russia
    JEL: D84 P16 P52
    Date: 2023–01
  4. By: Zogjani, Jeton; Kovaci-Uruci, Fife
    Abstract: This paper aims to discuss the main challenges and difficulties that the banking system in Kosovo was faced under the former Yugoslavia and the Serbian state(s). Also, this paper includes a discussion over the process of consolidation and development of the banking sector during the post-war period in Kosovo and the process of modernization in the post-independence period. The paper is based on the main banking indicators of the banking system in Kosovo, including bank assets, loans and deposits, banking performance and profitability indicators as well as banking electronic services over the last two decades. The highest growth rates of loans and deposits in Kosovo have been during the period 2004 - 2013, where household demand for loans and deposits have been higher during this period. Then, net banking profit in Kosovo has had an average annual growth of 80 million Euros during the period 2014 - 2020 and it is considered with the highest average growth over the last two decades. Since 2000, banking profitability indicators have shown a continuous improvement and their largest average annual growth has been during the period 2015 - 2020 while non-performing loans have had an average annual decline from 8.7% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2020. Also, electronic banking services have had an enormous growth and development, and these services have enabled banking customers to use them directly and continuously throughout 7/24. In conclusion, Kosovo has had the long way from a planned economy to a market economy but it has resulted in a difficult and quite challenging transformation. Since 1999, economic growth and the banking environment in Kosovo have enabled banks to improve, increase and expand their activities.
    Keywords: banking and payments authority of Kosovo; banking industry; banking performance and profitability; electronic banking services; MEB; National Bank of Kosovo (Bank Kos); UNMIK
    JEL: E43 E44 E58 G18
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Kiichi Tokuoka; Maria Atamanchuk
    Abstract: In Armenia, both external and domestic financing face challenges. Armenia’s share of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in private external financing has declined significantly over the past decade. Access to domestic finance in Armenia is also moderate and masks important disparities. Against this background, this paper analyses the determinants of inward FDI and examines the impediments to increasing access to domestic finance. The paper confirms empirically that governance-related structural factors have a significant impact on inward FDI. Similar structural factors, informality and poor accounting practices are reported among major challenges for increasing access to finance for firms in Armenia. This paper finds that to improve financing in Armenia include: implementing structural reforms to improve the business environment, maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies, strengthening financial reporting, and improving financial inclusion through reduced informality in the economy.
    Keywords: Inward FDI; access to finance; financial inclusion
    Date: 2023–01–13
  6. By: Feng, Fan; Jia, Ningyuan; Lin, Faqin
    Abstract: Purpose: Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world. Design/methodology/approach: The authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security. Findings: First, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity. Originality/value: This study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.
    Keywords: agriculture commodity price; agriculture trade; food security; Russia–Ukraine conflict; welfare; 72261147471; 72073128 and 72061147002
    JEL: J1 L81
    Date: 2023–01–05
  7. By: Ezequiel Cabezon; Moayad Al Rasasi
    Abstract: Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; post inflation targeting implementation; monetary policy outcome; monetary policy transmission; inflation targeting condition; transition to inflation targeting; transmission mechanism; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Dollarization; Currency markets; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
    Date: 2022–11–18
  8. By: Indrani Manna; Martin Suster; Biswajit Banerjee (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: By incorporating a data generating process for house price expectations in a standard new-Keynesian DSGE model calibrated to Slovakia, this paper differentiates between the macroeconomic impact of endogenous and exogenous sources of expectation shocks and the role of fiscal and macroprudential policy (in the absence of monetary policy) in managing these shocks in the housing market. The paper concludes that endogenous shocks pre-dominate exogenous shocks to expectations in home prices in accelerating credit growth and household indebtedness. But endogenous shocks can still be accredited with ’good housing booms’ tag as they raise the ability to pay-off rising debt significantly. In terms of policy, the paper finds that loan-to-value ratios score over payment to income ratios as a potent macroprudential instrument to manage housing market dynamics as constraint switching is limited in case of LTV because of an expectation sensitive factor market. Macroprudential instruments set as a function of household debt to GDP ratio reinforces the transmission channels and turn out to be counterproductive in case of endogenous shocks but effective in managing exogenous shocks. The paper also finds that property tax can be potential instrument to arrest rising house prices, but it works effectively in coordination with other policies. We also show that endogenous refinancing decisions of households can be effectively used as a channel for transmission of monetary and macroprudential policy through timely coordination of two policies.
    JEL: E30 E44 E50
    Date: 2022–10
  9. By: Stefan, Bruno
    Abstract: Pharmacies played an important role in society during the pandemic, being visited by customers more often than before. Communication with them was more intense, and this allowed the pharmacies to expand into other types of services. The study presents the changes produced on the Romanian pharmacy market from the perspective of the customers. It measured the confidence of pharmacists, the degree of information about the services offered, the attitude towards new services (measuring blood pressure, blood sugar, osteoporosis, etc.) and opinions about vaccination in pharmacies. The results of the research showed that people have a very high degree of confidence in the advice they receive in pharmacies. The pharmacies provide basic services (dispense of medication, information on their use, and tips for improving the health), but less services for health testing, preparation of medicines, and involvement in health care programs. Citizens want to benefit from the new services that pharmacies are offering now (rapid tests for blood pressure, glucose or infections), but they are reluctant to testing spirometry, osteodensitometry, skin cancer and age related degenerative diseases (Alzheimer's) at pharmacies. However, vaccination in pharmacies is the most strongly rejected, especially by women, people with higher education, high incomes, and chronically ill.
    Keywords: pharmacies; vaccination; survey; Romania.
    JEL: I12 M21 Z13
    Date: 2022–01–22
  10. By: Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: Macro stress testing has become an increasingly important part of central banks’, and macroprudential authorities’ toolkits after the global financial crises. Estimation of credit risk losses under adverse circumstances is one of the most important parts of the stress testing framework within the EU/Euro area. However, standard satellite models based on econometrics of time series may not be well suited for countries with short time series or an incomplete credit cycle. This paper shows how to incorporate microdata into the stress testing framework. The paper uses a unique set of individual retail loan data available to the NBS with a large number of data items provided for each loan. The new framework using micro data yields to a much larger increase of NPLs than using time series data in the case of Slovakia. On the other hand, overall losses estimated under the adverse scenario are comparable to losses estimated using the previous framework. Last but not least, the new framework using micro data enables us to estimate the change in risk weights caused by the adverse scenario as well.
    JEL: C58 G51
    Date: 2022–12
  11. By: Nguyen, Phi Dung; Huynh, Cong Minh
    Abstract: Recent technical development, globalization, and the COVID-19 pandemic have all contributed to an increase in the number of e-commerce logistics activities. However, there has been little investigation on the quality of e-commerce logistics services. This study fills this gap in the existing literature with the evidence from an emerging market like Vietnam, especially in Binh Duong province. It aims to identify the service quality factors of the e-commerce logistics that affect customer satisfaction, such as quality of information, quality of order, delivery quality, price of delivery, and customer service. Results find that: i) customer service has the greatest impact on customer satisfaction; ii) the quality of the order, the quality of the information, and the quality of the delivery come after, respectively; and iii) price of delivery is the final component that has the least impact. Our findings provide useful evidence for businesses in the e-commerce industry in satisfying their customer experiences.
    Keywords: Customer Satisfaction, Logistics, E-commerce, Online Shopping, Covid 19 pandemic
    JEL: B16 M10 M31
    Date: 2023–01–12
  12. By: Ms. Yu Shi; Karim Foda; Maryam Vaziri
    Abstract: This paper studies the relation between firms' access to finance, labor productivity and investment using Lithuanian firm-level data from 2000–2018. To do so, we construct a measure of financial constraints. We estimate that, given firm characteristics, removing these constraints can improve average productivity and investment of firms in Lithuania by 0.51 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Our results further suggest that policies targeting firm age and size together will be more effective in mitigating the impact of financial constraints as the relationship between firm age and size with financial constraints exhibits non-linearities.
    Keywords: Financial Constraints; Productivity; Investment; SMEs; Transition Economies; financing constraint; firm age; evidence from Lithuania; firm's age distribution; balance sheet information; Labor productivity; Aging; Financial statements; Global
    Date: 2022–12–09

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