nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2022‒12‒05
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Russia's technology imports from East Asia By Röyskö, Aino; Simola, Heli
  2. Chinese lending specifics and projects in the Caucasus region: A look into project-level data By Kalkschmied, Katja
  3. Tourism Persistence in the Southeastern European Countries: The Impact of Covid-19 By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Amir Imeri; Luis A. Gil-Alana
  4. Managing Bank Liquidity Hoarding during Uncertain Times: The Role of Board Gender Diversity By Denis DAVYDOV; Tatiana GARANINA; Laurent WEILL
  5. EU Cohesion Policy on the Ground: Analyzing Small-Scale Effects Using Satellite Data By Julia Bachtrögler-Unger; Mathias Dolls; Carla Krolage; Paul Schüle; Hannes Taubenböck; Matthias Weigand
  6. Private sanctions By Hart, Oliver D.; Thesmar, David; Zingales, Luigi
  7. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes By Chowdhry, Sonali; Hinz, Julian; Kamin, Katrin; Wanner, Joschka
  8. Working from home during Covid-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents By Anna Kurowska; Anna Matysiak; Beata Osiewalska
  9. Industrial robots and fertility in European countries By Anna Matysiak; Daniela Bellani; Honorata Bogusz
  10. Potential energy transition in a transitional country: Initial evidence from young Vietnamese survey and Bayesian approach By Khuc, Quy Van; Tran, Phuong-Mai; Nguyen, Thuy; ; Dang, Phuong-Thao; Tuyen, Dang Trung; Pham, Phu; Dat, Luu Quoc

  1. By: Röyskö, Aino; Simola, Heli
    Abstract: This brief considers the role of East Asian economies in Russia's technology imports. The EU, US and UK have set strict sanctions and export restrictions on Russia in response to the war in Ukraine, while responses from East Asian economies have been mixed. By restricting exports of technology production equipment and inputs, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have substantially hindered the availability of certain technology products in Russia. China and most other emerging economies in East Asia have not imposed sanctions on Russia and thus could potentially provide substitutes for Russia for some technology imports restricted by sanctions. There is little evidence so far, however, of any such shift occurring.
    Keywords: Russia,trade,East Asia,sanctions,technology imports
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Kalkschmied, Katja
    Abstract: The Caucasus region has experienced an increasing inflow of Chinese official development finance in the last twenty years. The inflow accelerated after the countries of the Caucasus region became participants in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese finance into Eurasia aims to build energy and economic corridors linking the European and Asian continents. Natural resource endowments and the geographic location between the two continents are favorable for these ambitions, and so are recent geopolitical developments. The war between Russia and Ukraine revokes new interest in the Middle Corridor energy and goods transportation routes running via the Caspian Sea and the Southern Caucasus. Much is to win from the TransCaucasus corridors for China, the European Union, and the Southern Caucasus countries but also for Kazakhstan and Turkey. Much is to lose also. This article infers on Chinese endeavors and lending specifics in the Caucasus region by looking at project-level data from the years 2000-20017. It concludes that the Southern Caucasus countries need to strategically manage the development cooperation offers from China and other powers to make the new interest in the region beneficial for them. This requires taking measures to ensure that foreign-financed projects meet domestic needs and interests and become effective for domestic development.
    Keywords: Development finance,Caucasus,China,BRI
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Amir Imeri; Luis A. Gil-Alana
    Abstract: This paper examines tourism persistence in a group of Southeastern European (SEE) countries (Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia) by applying fractional integration methods to monthly data on foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays. The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the degree of persistence of the series examined and also reduced the importance of their seasonal component.
    Keywords: SEE, Covid-19, fractional integration, persistence, shocks, tourism
    JEL: C13 C22 L83 N74 Z32
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Denis DAVYDOV (Hanken School of Economics); Tatiana GARANINA (University of Vaasa); Laurent WEILL (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a high share of women on bank executive boards. Using the news-based EPU index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and LH measures proposed by Berger, Guedhami, Kim, and Li (2022), we exploit a unique dataset from the Russian banking sector. While higher economic policy uncertainty tends to increase liquidity hoarding, we find this effect diminishes as gender diversity of the board increases. We attribute this finding to the moderating influence of gender diversity on stability and overreaction in decision-making. These results argue for policies to promote gender diversity of bank boards as a means of limiting detrimental effects of economic policy uncertainty.
    Keywords: Liquidity hoarding; Bank boards; Gender diversity; Economic policy uncertainty.
    JEL: G18 G21 G34 P26
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Julia Bachtrögler-Unger; Mathias Dolls; Carla Krolage; Paul Schüle; Hannes Taubenböck; Matthias Weigand
    Abstract: We present a novel approach for analyzing the effects of EU cohesion policy on local economic activity. For all municipalities in the border area of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland, we collect project-level data on EU funding in the period between 2007 and 2013. Using night light emission data as a proxy for economic development, we show that the receipt of a higher amount of EU funding is associated with increased economic activity at the municipal level. Our paper demonstrates that remote sensing data can provide an effective way to model local economic development also in Europe, where no comprehensive cross-border data is available at such a spatially granular level.
    Keywords: regional development, EU cohesion policy, remote sensing
    JEL: R11 O18 H54
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Hart, Oliver D.; Thesmar, David; Zingales, Luigi
    Abstract: We survey a representative sample of the U.S. population to understand stakeholders' desire to see their firms exit Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. 61% of respondents think that firms should exit Russia, regardless of the consequences. Only 37% think that leaving Russia is a purely business decision. If a firm does not conform with these desires, 66% of the respondents are willing to boycott it. This desire diminishes with the costs they face in boycotting. At $500, 43% would want to boycott. Our model is able to explain up to 24% of the cross-sectional variability in attitudes to boycotting. Nevertheless, it is difficult to separate deontological and consequentialist motives to boycott, because subjects' beliefs are highly correlated with values. When we randomize the beliefs we find a strong effect for shareholders, but not for the other stakeholders. We discuss what are the geopolitical and economic implications of a world where private corporations discontinue profitable business relationships for moral or political reasons.
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Chowdhry, Sonali; Hinz, Julian; Kamin, Katrin; Wanner, Joschka
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential - the maximum welfare change attainable - when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 - 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
    Keywords: Sanctions,Embargoes,Alliances,Sectoral linkages
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F51
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Anna Kurowska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Political Sciences and International Relations; LabFam - Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics); Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; LabFam - Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics); Beata Osiewalska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; LabFam - Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics; Cracow University of Economics)
    Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs. On the other, it led to blurred boundaries between work and family life during lockdowns. We investigate how working from home was related to change in fertility intentions of mothers and fathers during the pandemic and discuss the complex mechanisms behind these relationships. With the use of unique Familydemic Survey data for Poland, we estimate multinomial logit regressions and consider a set of potential moderators. We find evidence for an overall negative relationship between home based work and fertility intentions for mothers and fathers, but we also uncover some positive moderating effects. In particular, we shed light on the unexpected moderating role of gendered division of unpaid labor from before the pandemic.
    Keywords: fertility intentions, childbearing decisions, Covid-19 pandemic, coronavirus pandemic, working from home, telecommuting, telework, home based work, work-family reconciliation, work-family conflict, parents, gender relations, division of unpaid work
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Daniela Bellani (Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence); Honorata Bogusz (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: In this study we examine whether the long-term structural changes in the labour market, driven by automation, affect fertility. Adoption of industrial robots in the EU has tripled since the mid-1990s, tremendously changing the conditions of participating in the labour market. On the one hand, new jobs are created, benefitting largely the highly skilled workers. On the other hand, the growing turnover in the labour market and changing content of jobs induce fears of job displacement and make workers continuously adjust to new requirements (reskill, upskill, increase work efforts). The consequences of these changes are particularly strong for the employment and earning prospects of the low and middle educated workers. Our focus is on six European countries: Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom. We link regional data on fertility and employment structures by industry from Eurostat (NUTS-2) with data on robot adoption from the International Federation of Robotics. We estimate fixed effects linear models with instrumental variables in order to account for the external shocks which may affect fertility and robot adoption in parallel. Our findings suggest robots tend to exert a negative impact on fertility in highly industrialised regions, regions with relatively low educated populations and those which are technologically less advanced. At the same time, better educated and prospering regions may even experience fertility improvements as a result of the technological change. The family and labour market institutions of the country may further moderate these effects.
    Keywords: fertility, employment, industrial robots, technological change, Europe
    JEL: J11 J13
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Khuc, Quy Van; Tran, Phuong-Mai; Nguyen, Thuy; ; Dang, Phuong-Thao; Tuyen, Dang Trung; Pham, Phu; Dat, Luu Quoc
    Abstract: Industrialization and consumerism have aroused growing concern about energy depletion, necessitating a transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources. To this end, every segment of the population should shoulder responsibility for mitigating environmental problems, especially the young generation. This study contributes to the literature on environment management and development by improving the understanding of young adults’ intention to acquire energy conservation knowledge and its correlation with their demographics and environmental concerns. We employed a systematic randomized sampling method and conducted a large-scale online survey with the participation of 1454 students in 48 different universities in Vietnam. The first results show that young adults had significant environmental concerns, yet more efforts are demanded to turn perceptions into actions or contributions. Almost 83% expressed a desire for energy-saving knowledge, and roughly 50% are willing to take an energy course. We found that the young adults' perception and high income were positively associated with their decision on energy course enrolment. Demographically, women were more likely to take energy-saving courses, and those living urban areas had a higher desire for knowledge enhancement. These findings have numerous policy implications for facilitating energy transformation based on improved environmental education programs for sustainable development in Vietnam and beyond.
    Date: 2022–10–15

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