nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒14
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Operationalizing growth models By Baccaro, Lucio; Hadziabdic, Sinisa
  2. The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis By Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde; Prehn, Sören; Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush; Duric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
  3. Migrants from Ukraine and Belarus Living in Sweden before the War By Andersson, Fredrik W.; Wadensjö, Eskil
  4. (Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions By Gustavo de Souza; Naiyuan Hu; Haishi Li; Yuan Mei
  5. COVID-19 Pandemic and the Health and Well-being of Vulnerable People in Vietnam By Dang, Hai-Anh; Do, Minh N.N.
  6. The role of central bank communication in inflation-targeting Eastern European emerging economies By Valerio Astuti; Alessio Ciarlone; Alberto Coco
  7. Have Remittances Affected Real Unit Labor Costs in the Transition Economies of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia ? By Okello,,Jimmy Apaa; Canagarajah,Roy S.; Brownbridge,Martin
  8. War in Ukraine: The Rationale “Wait-and-See” Mode of Global Food Markets By Legrand, Nicolas
  9. Temporal Discounting in Later Life By Kulati, Ellam; Myck, Michal; Pasini, Giacomo
  10. Corporate Market Power in Romania : Assessing Recent Trends, Drivers, and Implications for Competition By Iootty De Paiva Dias,Mariana; Pop,Georgiana; Pena,Jorge O.

  1. By: Baccaro, Lucio; Hadziabdic, Sinisa
    Abstract: We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on import-adjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the "drivers" of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
    Keywords: advanced economies,emerging economies,export-led growth,growth models,input-output tables,political economy,entwickelte Volkswirtschaften,exportorientiertes Wachstum,Input-Output-Tabellen,politische Ökonomie,Schwellenländer,Wachstumsmodelle
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde; Prehn, Sören; Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush; Duric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market. Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilizing food security in these regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, India and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. Any calls to move towards a centrally planned economy or autarky are strongly advised against, as this would only be to the detriment of food security in the Global South.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Andersson, Fredrik W. (Statistics Sweden); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: The Russian war in Ukraine has led to many fleeing the country. The Temporary Protection Directive applies to those from Ukraine but also those who received a residence permit in Ukraine as a refugee before 24 February 2022, as those who have fled from Belarus to Ukraine in recent years. We can therefore expect that many refugees will come to Sweden from Ukraine, but also to a lesser extent indirectly from Belarus. For refugees originating in these two countries, reception may be facilitated by that people from the same countries have arrived before. Whether those who came earlier can be of help to refugees who come now in terms of finding employment depends, among other things, on the labor market position of the former migrants in Sweden. Do they have work and if so what kind of work? In which parts of Sweden do they live? In this paper, we try to answer these questions.
    Keywords: Ukraine, Belarus, Swedish labor market, employment, migrants
    JEL: F22 F51 J15 J21 J61
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Gustavo de Souza; Naiyuan Hu; Haishi Li; Yuan Mei
    Abstract: Trade sanctions are a common instrument of diplomatic retaliation. To guide current and future policy, we ask: What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? To answer this question, we build a quantitative model of international trade with input-output connections. Sanctioning countries simultaneously choose import tariffs to maximize their income and to minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with a small willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is a uniform, about 20% tariff against all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.7 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products - with tariffs above 50% on other products - is the most cost-efficient policy. Finally, if countries target politically relevant sectors, an embargo against Russia’s mining and energy sector is the cost-efficient policy even when there is a small willingness to pay for sanctions.
    Keywords: trade sanctions; Tariff; tariff competition
    JEL: F13 O24
    Date: 2022–10–05
  5. By: Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam)
    Abstract: Despite a sizable population and modest status as a low middle-income country, Vietnam has recorded a low COVID-19 fatality rate that rivals those of richer countries with far larger spending on health. We offer an early review of the emerging literatures in public health and economics on the pandemic effects in Vietnam, with a specific focus on vulnerable population groups. Our review suggests that vulnerable workers were at more health risks than the general population. The pandemic reduced household income, increased the poverty rate, and worsened wage equality. It increased the proportion of below-minimum wage workers by 2.5 percentage points (i.e., 32 percent increase). While government policy responses were generally regarded as effective, the public support for these responses was essential for this success, particularly where there were stronger public participation in the political process. Our review also indicates the need for a social protection database to identify the poor and the informal workers to further enhance targeting efforts. Finally, we suggest future directions for research in the Vietnamese context.
    Keywords: COVID-19, health, vulnerable households, poverty, inequality, Vietnam
    JEL: E24 I1 I30 J21 O12
    Date: 2022–10
  6. By: Valerio Astuti (Banca d'Italia); Alessio Ciarlone (Banca d'Italia); Alberto Coco (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze whether central bank communication can be an additional tool to provide guidance on monetary policy, drive private agents’ inflation expectations and financial asset prices in the main countries of Central and Eastern Europe. By applying natural language processing techniques to monetary policy statements and minutes, we first derive a series of salient topics on which central bank communications focused over the last two decades, and then develop indices of tone to gauge their respective degrees of hawkishness (dovishness) about the economic outlook. By using these indices in an econometric set-up, we find that a more hawkish (dovish) tone – reflecting a more positive (negative) assessment of the economic outlook – anticipates a more restrictive (accommodative) monetary policy decision, raises (lowers) short-term inflation expectations of private sector agents, increases (reduces) market interest rates across different maturities, and drives share prices down (up). Overall, our analysis suggests that communication may be a complementary and effective monetary policy tool available to central banks in emerging economies.
    Keywords: central banks, communication, natural language processing, Taylor rule, inflation expectations, financial markets, CEE-3
    JEL: C22 C25 C45 E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2022–10
  7. By: Okello,,Jimmy Apaa; Canagarajah,Roy S.; Brownbridge,Martin
    Abstract: Twelve of the 29 transition economies in Europe and Central Asia are high remittance recipients, with average remittance receipts equivalent to 5 percent or more of their gross domestic product in the 2010s. The paper examines the evolution, during the 2000s and 2010s, of real unit labor costs, denominated in local currency and U.S. dollars, of the transition economies. Local currency and U.S. dollar real unit labor costs rose much faster between 2003 and 2015-17 in the high remittance recipient economies than in the other transition economies, although there was considerable variance between the countries in the high remittance recipient group. Among the high remittance recipients, approximately half of the increase in real unit labor costs denominated in U.S. dollars can be attributed to increases in local currency real unit labor costs and half to appreciation of their real exchange rates. Fixed effects and cross-country econometric estimates suggest that remittances had a positive and significant impact on the changes in domestic currency real unit labor costs in the transition economies.
    Keywords: Rural Labor Markets,International Trade and Trade Rules,Migration and Development,Labor Markets
    Date: 2021–01–19
  8. By: Legrand, Nicolas
    Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a major shock at the heart of the breadbasket of Europe at a time when global stocks are running short. With inelastic supply and demand for such basic goods and lack of inventories to cushion the shock, the basic economics of storage arbitrage explain the commodity price spikes needed to ration the war-related supply shortage. In this paper, I show that to make sense of the chaotic price fluctuations requires a consistent empirical tool, such as the storage model with rational expectations. Empirical analysis of the unfolding commodity shock using a storage model lens suggests that the global food market is currently in a “wait-and-see” mode, with price movements reflecting a loss in the size of the global share of caloric production from Ukraine. I show also that the supply and demand outlook for the next two years is aligned to the price expectations of market participants and send the signal that the world should prepare for a period of scarcer supply and high and volatile food prices, for as long as the conflict lasts. Sound policymaking in this context could rely on this normative device to ease the suffering of the most vulnerable populations who are at risk of hunger and malnourishment.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2022–10–24
  9. By: Kulati, Ellam (Warsaw University); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Pasini, Giacomo (Ca' Foscari University of Venice)
    Abstract: We explore intertemporal decision-making in later life by looking at temporal preference heterogeneity among older individuals. Using choice tasks responses from Poland collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we elicit individual time preferences using competing discounting specifications. With the formulation that best fits our data, we examine which individual characteristics drive the estimated heterogeneity in later life time preferences. Individual numerical abilities, labour and marital status, as well as household income turn out to be significant correlates of patience. Our analysis also provides methodological guidance for instrument design with the aim of eliciting time preferences in a general survey setting.
    Keywords: time preferences, discount rate, present bias, survey methodology, old age
    JEL: D12 D15 C83 J14
    Date: 2022–10
  10. By: Iootty De Paiva Dias,Mariana; Pop,Georgiana; Pena,Jorge O.
    Abstract: This paper explores firm-level heterogeneity to identify the underlying drivers of market power trends in Romania and the implications for competition and economic growth. The results show that the (sales-weighted) average markup in Romania increased by around 15 percent between 2008 and 2017. A key driving force behind this aggregate trend was the ability of a small fraction of firms -- the top decile firms in the markup distribution -- to increase their markups. These firms do not seem to follow the typical superstar firms' profile: they are smaller, less efficient, and less likely to invest in intangible assets than other firms in the markup distribution and overrepresented in less knowledge-intensive service sectors (for example, the retail and trade sector). This suggests that the increase in markups in Romania might be associated with an environment that is less conducive to competition. A decomposition exercise shows that the increase in aggregate markups has been driven mostly by incumbents rather than new entrants and exiting firms, which could be interpreted as a sign of consolidation of market power among existing firms. The paper also finds that certain firm characteristics matter to explain differences in markup performance: size, age, research and development profile, export propensity, location, and especially ownership. Further, the paper shows that additional productivity dividends are associated with increased competition in Romania. Overall, these findings illustrate potential policy angles that need to be tackled to enhance market contestability and boost productivity growth, such as addressing regulations that restrict entry and rivalry in the retail trade sector, which concentrates a substantial proportion of high-markup firms, as well as promoting competitive neutrality across markets where public and private actors compete.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Food&Beverage Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing,Pulp&Paper Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy),Economic Theory&Research,Industrial Economics,Economic Growth
    Date: 2020–12–03

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