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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Jiri Teichman (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The study uses network measures and visualisation to show alternative ways of exploring international trade and its structure. We specifically focus on trade networks in the largest export categories of the Czech Republic. Our results show the rising importance of the Czech Republic in the selected categories as measured by the trade weighted degree centrality. However, in several categories, this is not complemented by a similar increase in the number of trade partners. This lack of diversification could be a possible risk for Czech trade. While the results in categories related to electronics and information technologies showed increasing importance of China, categories connected to car manufacturing remain dominated by Germany and the United States. |
| Keywords: | Czech trade, international trade, network theory, trade networks |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2022_22&r= |
| By: | Paul, Michael |
| Abstract: | While Russia remains chair of the Arctic Council until May 2023, the other seven member states have suspended their participation in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The impacts on Moscow are multiple. Politically the move sidelines a policy area where Russia still played a significant role after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Economically it creates question marks over important Russian Arctic projects and their markets. The interruption of the Council's work also touches the interests of other states such as China and erodes Russia's standing in the region. All Western partners have suspended scientific and research cooperation. While Russia is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the Arctic, the disruption of climate-related research is ultimately detrimental to all nations. In the military sphere, Finland and Sweden are seeking to join NATO. That outcome would double the length of Russia's border with NATO states, and represents the exact opposite of Moscow's original intention to halt the Alliance's expansion. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:392022&r= |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Elbek, Abdullaev |
| Abstract: | This article aims to examine the deindustrialization in the post-Soviet economies from the perspective of the premature deindustrialization hypothesis, and also to investigate the factors that cause the deindustrialization: a comparative advantage in manufacturing, the Dutch Disease factor, human capital and institutions. This study takes the following two steps: first, to show the degree of the deindustrialization by their country-specific fixed effect in the estimation of manufacturing-population-income relationships, and second, to reveal the contributions of the deindustrialization factors to the country-specific fixed effect. The main findings from the empirical estimations are summarized as follows. First, the result of the fixed-effect model estimation suggested the existence of the deindustrialization in the ten middle-income countries out of the total 15 post-Soviet countries. Second, the outcomes of the factor-analyses revealed that the deindustrialization in the ten countries is fully explained by their comparative disadvantages in manufacturing as the overall contributor, and further by the sub-factors: the lack of human capital, the Dutch Disease effect (mainly in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, and Uzbekistan) and immature institutions (mainly in Kyrgyz, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). |
| Keywords: | Deindustrialization, Post-Soviet economies, Dutch Disease, Human capital, Institutions, and Manufacturing |
| JEL: | O14 O57 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114413&r= |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Russia's war against Ukraine has led the EU-27 to grant Kyiv EU-candidate status quickly - even hastily, in the view of critics. For now, however, the preparation of accession negotiations can only be a secondary concern. The war, with its uncertain outcome, takes centre stage. For the EU this means supporting Ukraine militarily as well as financially and helping to organise international aid for reconstruction. Given this context, we should expect the EU not simply to adhere to the usual enlargement script in shaping its relations with Ukraine. Instead, it should coordinate three frameworks for action: the future accession negotiations, the current process of association, and potential new formats, such as a European Political Community or a European Political and Economic Area. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:462022&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Berrisch; Sven Pappert; Florian Ziel; Antonia Arsova |
| Abstract: | We study the prices of European Emission Allowances (EUA), whereby we analyze their uncertainty and dependencies on related energy markets. We propose a probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model that exploits key characteristics of the data. The forecasting performance of the proposed model and various competing models is evaluated in an extensive rolling window forecasting study, covering almost two years out-of-sample. Thereby, we forecast 30-steps ahead. The accuracy of the multivariate probabilistic forecasts is assessed by the energy score. We discuss our findings focusing on volatility spillovers and time-varying correlations, also in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2208.14311&r= |
| By: | Dalay, Galip |
| Abstract: | The war in Ukraine is set to increase the pressure on Turkey's balancing policy, shed light on the role of anti-Westernism in Ankara-Moscow relations, and reshape Turkey's relations with Russia and the West. The balancing policy will face a less permissive environment. However, a rupture in Turkey-Russia relations is not to be expected. Given the prohibitive cost of a breakdown, Ankara will strive to maintain functional bilateral relations with Moscow. More broadly, despite the changed context, Turkey will continue to seek autonomy in its foreign and security policy. This quest precedes the balancing policy and was not driven solely by discontent with the West. It was also informed by Turkey's reading of the global order becoming more multipolar and less Western-centric. In spite of similarities in their narratives, the Turkish and Russian anti-Westernisms manifest themselves differently in policy terms. Finally, Russia's geopolitical revisionism is set to drive Turkey and the West relatively closer together in matters geopolitical and strategic, provided that Turkey's current blockage of Sweden and Finland's NATO membership bid is resolved in the not too distant future. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:352022&r= |
| By: | Nosecka, Bożena; Bugała, Anna |
| Abstract: | The growing health problems of the world’s population related to inadequate nutrition have prompted many countries to take measures to develop healthy eating habits. One of the activities in the EU was the implementation of the School Fruit Scheme between 2009/10 and 2016/17, and School Fruit and Vegetables Scheme since 2017/18, in which fruit and vegetables have been one of the two components (the second component is milk and milk products). The aim of the article was to evaluate their effectiveness in terms of the consumption of fruit and vegetables in Polish families. The article was based on: EU legal acts, evaluations of the functioning and implementation of the schemes made by EU and Polish institutions, statistical data from Statistics Poland, and a review of the literature on the consumption of fruit and vegetables. It was found that despite the greater number of schools and children participating in the scheme and the growing expenses for its implementation, in most EU countries, including Poland, there is no increase in the consumption of horticultural products covered by the scheme (Pearson’s correlation coefficient between the number of children participating in the scheme and consumption in households between 2009/10 and 2020/21 amounted to −0.77). The reasons may be the weaknesses of the scheme (i.e., generally poor quality of products, too short duration of the scheme, and also insufficient involvement of parents in its implementation) on the one hand and the influence of other factors determining the consumption of fruit and vegetables under the scheme being difficult to statistically confirm (greater availability of other products, ineffective advertising) on the other. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:324177&r= |
| By: | Luigi Bonatti,; Roberto Tamborini |
| Abstract: | As a consequence of the Ukraine war, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary policy in the euro area is severely challenged by the convergent threats to price, economic, and financial stability. After examining them, we argue that the burden of the euro area stability cannotbeleftentirelyontheshouldersofthecentralbank.Thesuccessful synergic coordination of monetary policy with central and national fiscal policies inaugurated in response to the pandemic should be strengthened. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 20 June 2022. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2022/3&r= |
| By: | Zieliński, Marek |
| Abstract: | The aim of the study is to assess environmental, organizational, and economic implications for agriculture in municipalities with different share of the Natura 2000 network in Poland. Data on the distribution of Natura 2000 sites and natural management conditions in municipalities are derived from the General Directorate for Environmental Protection and the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation State Research Institute for 2018. Data on the features of the organizational potential of agriculture across municipalities were collected from the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture. They were generated on the basis of applications for direct payments under the 2016 and 2021 campaigns submitted by 1345.2 and 1269.5 thousand farms, i.e., the beneficiaries of the 2014–2020 common agricultural policy (CAP), respectively. It was found that municipalities with a large and particularly large share of Natura 2000 areas, as compared to municipalities without such areas, were characterized by significantly worse management conditions and a more diverse landscape, as well as a larger share in agricultural area with extensive production characteristic of high nature value farmlands (HNVf) designated in Poland under the 2014–2020 CAP. Farms located in Natura 2000 areas, as compared to other farms, were characterized by a larger average agricultural area, as well as by lower labor inputs per 1 ha of agricultural area. They were characterized by lower total costs, including direct costs, which resulted in lower factor productivity and income per 1 ha of agricultural area. The conclusion was that they had less development opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:324174&r= |
| By: | Asali, Muhammad (ISET, Tbilisi State University); Pantsulaia, Valida (National Bank of Georgia) |
| Abstract: | In the first two quarters of 2013 the Georgian government introduced and fully implemented a universal health care (UHC) plan covering all those not-yet publicly or privately insured. We estimate the effect of the introduction of the universal healthcare plan on the level of out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures of households. We find that the program saved households an economically and statistically significant amount of 92 GEL per household/ month: a major effect, amounting to about 10% of the average household monthly income and 30% of the average individual monthly income at the time. The OOP payments reduction is almost totally attributed to people utilizing serious, emergency, or life-saving inpatient and outpatient services—lending support to the hypothesis that the UHC program, not only has reduced the OOP health expenditures, but it might have also improved the overall health status in the country. |
| Keywords: | universal healthcare, out of pocket health expenditures, public health, health insurance |
| JEL: | I13 I18 H51 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15494&r= |
| By: | Michal Marencak (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a parsimonious behavioral SIR model with compartments for hospitalized and vaccinated shares of population, contagion among vaccinated and loss of immunity. A model variant with vaccination, the transmission rate endogenously responding to the share of hospitalized patients, seasonal variation and pandemic fatigue matches the epidemic evolution from July 2020 to February 2022 in Slovakia remarkably well. We find that vaccination, despite being among the slowest in the EU, reduced the death toll in Slovakia by up to 18,500 deaths. Assuming the pace of EU countries with the highest vaccination rates lowers the cumulative deaths by another 8,000. |
| JEL: | C0 C0 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1086&r= |