nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2022‒09‒26
eight papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The impact of Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war on food prices in fragile countries: misfortunes never come singly By Samba Diop; Simplice A. Asongu
  2. The politics of bank failures in Russia By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Karas, Alexei; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
  3. Mining and Mistrust in Government By Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna
  4. Preparing a multi-country, sub-national CGE model: EuroTERM including Ukraine By Glyn Wittwer
  5. Returns to Education in the Public and Private Sectors: Europe and Central Asia By Montenegroa, Claudio M.; Patrinos, Harry Anthony
  6. High school principal as process manager By Eva Urbanová; Jana Marie ?afránková
  7. Where do I stand in the EU? Income comparisons and perceptions By Bublitz, Elisabeth; Jäger, Julian; Wang, Hequn; Beblo, Miriam; Lohmann, Henning
  8. Building portfolios of sovereign securities with decreasing carbon footprints By Gong Cheng; Eric Jondeau; Benoit Mojon

  1. By: Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to evaluate whether there is a change in the level or trend of food prices in fragile countries following the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. The empirical evidence is based on Interrupted Time Series Analysis. The following findings are established. Firstly, an immediate and sustained positive effect is noted, indicating that for each month that passes after the Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, food prices increase in most of the fragile countries. Secondly, if the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war had not happened, the price level and its trend would have been at a significantly lower level in fragile countries. Thirdly, the Russia-Ukraine war intervention period slope is significantly and considerably higher than that of the Covid-19 indicating that the Russia-Ukraine war has increased food prices in fragile countries more proportionately than the Covid-19 pandemic did.
    Keywords: Covid-19; Russia-Ukraine war; food prices; fragile countries
    JEL: F52 K42 O17 O55 P16
    Date: 2022–09
  2. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Karas, Alexei; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: Russia has witnessed a high number of bank failures over the last two decades. Using monthly data for 2002-2020, spanning four election cycles, we test the hypothesis that bank failures are less likely before presidential elections. We find that bank failures are less likely to occur in the twelve months leading up to an election. However, we do not observe election cycles in bank failures are more pronounced for banks associated with greater political costs. Overall, our results provide mixed evidence that political cycles matter for the occurrence of bank failures in Russia.
    JEL: G21 D72 P3
    Date: 2022–09–13
  3. By: Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna
    Abstract: Recent research shows that natural resources can hurt institutions by promoting corruption and diverting resources from the production of public goods. This, in turn, may have implications for the trust individuals hold for their governments. We explore this possibility by linking survey data on over 43,000 individuals with spatial data on mine locations in 27 post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. By exploiting the information on the development status of each mine site, we draw comparisons between individuals living in the vicinity of active versus inactive mines, imitating a difference-in-differences strategy applied to cross-sectional data. We show that there is a negative association between mining and trust in government - a finding that is robust to a battery of tests. Our analysis of the mechanisms confirms that corruption perception and, to a lesser extent, dissatisfaction with public good provision, are likely behind this relationship. The analysis of the consequences of such mistrust in government points towards a potentially damaging impact of mining for new democracies. The results suggest that mining activity might decrease individuals' willingness to go on lawful demonstrations and participate in civil and political movements.
    Keywords: Natural resources,Trust,Institutions,Post-communist countries
    JEL: D72 L72 O13 P28 Q32
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Glyn Wittwer
    Abstract: This paper describes the preparation of a database that identifies 74 industries in each of 328 regions in 40 countries, predominantly in Europe. The data are configured to support EuroTERM models of Europe at user chosen levels of industry and regional disaggregation. The TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) methodology has been applied to many countries over the past two decades to model sub-national regional impacts of policy scenarios. The methodology does not rely on sub-national regional input-output tables. Instead, estimates of regional activity shares are used to split a national CGE database into regions. Activity shares are based on industry by region employment numbers extracted from census data, regional agricultural and mining activity data and international trade data by port. EuroTERM provides an example of extending the TERM methodology. First, the GTAP master database is aggregated for non-European nations while keeping European nations plus Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (proxied by Rest of Eastern Europe), Belarus, Georgia, Albania, Iran, Turkey and North Africa represented separately. The database is reconfigured to 40 individual CGE databases. Using NUTS2 data and regional data for the oblasts of Ukraine, regional shares are estimated. Eurostats is the main source of these data. Regional shares provide the basis for splitting 24 European CGE databases to the NUTS-2 level and Ukraine to oblasts. The other nations in the database remain as single country regions. Industry cost structures or technologies are based on GTAP data for each nation. This approach differs from single-nation TERM, in which a single industry technology applies to each region. The methodology used to estimate inter-regional trades in TERM has been modified to accommodate matrices of known international trades from GTAP, while splitting origins and destinations into sub-national regions. Port activity data also contribute to estimation of subnational trade matrices. Electricity Global data on power plants by location have contributed to a split of electricity into 9 generating sectors plus distribution. The war in Ukraine has provided motivation for adding Ukraine, represented by 24 oblasts plus Kyiv city. The EuroTERM master database at present includes 74 sectors in 328 regions. A prototype 438 region GlobeTERM model, including virtually all regions in the GTAP master database, has also been developed as part of the project.
    Keywords: regional economics, Europe, global analysis
    JEL: C68 R10 R11 R15
    Date: 2022–08
  5. By: Montenegroa, Claudio M.; Patrinos, Harry Anthony
    Abstract: The returns to schooling are estimated for 28 European and Central Asian countries using the Mincerian function. Our results show that while the public sector pays on average more than the private sector, the effect of education on earnings is stronger in the private sector. However, the returns to tertiary education are higher in the private sector.
    Keywords: returns to education,wage differentials,public-private,Europe
    JEL: I21 J31
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Eva Urbanová (Charles University, Faculty of Education, Department of Andragogy and Educational Management); Jana Marie ?afránková (AMBIS University, Department of Economy and Management)
    Abstract: Professional training and support for school principals is one of the goals of the Czech Republic's Education Policy Strategy 2030+. The primary function of a secondary school is to educate and nurture pupils, so the school principal should be a pedagogical leader. Due to the high autonomy of Czech schools, the principal must also carry out work activities that are important for ensuring the day-to-day operation of the school. Due to this non-pedagogical and administrative burden, the principal has limited scope for developing pedagogical leadership and improving the quality of education provided. For this reason, methodological support for individual schools is being introduced in the form of a 'middle link' to provide support services to schools.The aim of the paper is to discuss the work activities of the school principal as a process manager, the possibilities of their delegation and the use of the middle article as a support in reducing the non-teaching and administrative burden.Research question: Which work activities of a high school principal as a process manager should be delegated to other staff members or use a middle support article to provide them?The results of the author's research focused on identifying the work activities of a high school principal as a process manager. The research investigation revealed that many non-teaching work activities are performed by the principal himself, while he could delegate them as well as administrative activities.
    Keywords: school principal, secondary school, work activities, management, non-teaching and administrative workload, methodological support
    JEL: I20 J24 J29
    Date: 2022–07
  7. By: Bublitz, Elisabeth; Jäger, Julian; Wang, Hequn; Beblo, Miriam; Lohmann, Henning
    Abstract: With a survey experiment conducted in Germany, Italy, Poland, and Sweden, we investigate how EU citizens rank themselves within the EU. In all four countries, (mis-)perceptions of EU income positions result primarily from respondents' (incomplete) information about their national position and their perceived country ranking within the EU. Low-income respondents tend to place themselves higher and richer respondents lower in both the national and EU income distribution. Respondents who are informed about their income position estimate their EU ranking more accurately in a follow-up survey. Our findings show that concepts of inequality at the EU level are empirically meaningful and that EU citizens have a reference frame beyond their own country.
    Keywords: Perceptions,Inequality,European Union,Survey Experiment
    JEL: C91 D31 H24
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Gong Cheng; Eric Jondeau; Benoit Mojon
    Abstract: We propose a strategy to build portfolios of sovereign securities with progressively declining carbon footprints. Passive investors could use it as a new Paris-consistent benchmark to construct a "net zero" (NZ) portfolio while tracking closely the risk-adjusted returns of a business-as-usual (BAU) benchmark. Our strategy rewards sovereign issuers that have made stronger efforts in reducing carbon intensity, measured by total domestic emissions per capita. The NZ portfolio would have reduced carbon intensity by 41% between 2014 and 2019, by assigning higher weights to countries that have had lower carbon emissions. Among advanced economies, rebalancing leads to raising shares of France, Italy and Spain in the portfolio at the expense of the United States. And among emerging market economies, this leads to higher shares for Chile, the Philippines and Romania at the expense of China. Importantly, the NZ portfolio retains the same creditworthiness as the BAU benchmark without entailing materially higher foreign exchange risks.
    Keywords: carbon footprints, sovereign debt, portfolio rebalancing, portfolio optimisation, active share, tracking error
    JEL: G11 G24 Q56
    Date: 2022–09

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