nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2022‒07‒11
seven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine By Lena Dräger; Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke
  2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the green energy transition – A capital market perspective By Martin Nerlinger; Sebastian Utz
  3. Vladimir vs. the virus - a tale of two shocks: An update of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) to April 2022 - a research note By Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Hornig, Nico
  4. Turkish-Russian adversarial collaboration in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh By Yildiz, Güney
  5. Nord Stream 2 and the energy security dilemma: Opportunities, options and obstacles for a grand bargain By Shagina, Maria; Westphal, Kirsten
  6. Connecting Ukraine to Europe's electricity grid: Technical details and hard geopolitics By Feldhaus, Lukas; Westphal, Kirsten; Zachmann, Georg
  7. Tax morale and social capital: an empirical investigation among European citizens By Alessandro Cascavilla Author-Name-First Alessandro; Jordi Ripollés; Andrea Morone

  1. By: Lena Dräger; Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke
    Abstract: How do global political shocks influence individuals’ expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supplyside effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favor an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.
    Keywords: Inflation expectations, belief formation, natural experiment, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, survey, economic experts
    JEL: E31 E71 D74 D84
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Martin Nerlinger (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance and Swiss Finance Institute); Sebastian Utz (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance)
    Abstract: We investigate whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected investors' assessment concerning a green energy transition. Based on a global energy sector sample, we apply an event study around the invasion on February 24, 2022. We find that energy firms' CAAR are positive around the event. Renewable energy firms generated comparably low abnormal returns than coal, oil and gas, and uranium. This pattern prevails except in North America, where they show the second-highest CAAR in 41 days around the event. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears not to entirely change the investors' assessment of a possible acceleration of a green energy transition.
    Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy, transition, event study, climate change
    JEL: G14 G15 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2022–06
  3. By: Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Hornig, Nico
    Keywords: uncertainty,narratives,latent Dirichlet allocation,business cycles,text mining,computational methods,Covid-19,Ukraine war,Russia,Putin
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Yildiz, Güney
    Abstract: Russia and Turkey are backing opposing warring parties in three active conflicts. However, this adversarial positioning has not hindered cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. They reign in opposing sides and, in effect, stage-manage their respective theatres of wars. Through multilateral arrangements, Europe is an enabler of Turkey's position and could leverage its support to push Ankara to cooperate more effectively with its Western partners.
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Shagina, Maria; Westphal, Kirsten
    Abstract: Washington and Berlin have settled their differences over the gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. For the time being, this has halted the spiralling energy security dilemma. While Washington is sending a clear signal that constructive relations with Berlin are important, the German government is now called upon to implement a variety of measures. Still, the project remains a political issue. Kyiv and Warsaw have already signalled their opposition. A grand bargain that is not only bilaterally agreed upon but also involves Ukraine and commits Russia has not yet been achieved.
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Feldhaus, Lukas; Westphal, Kirsten; Zachmann, Georg
    Abstract: Connecting Ukraine to the continental European power grid and the EU's electricity market is on the political agenda. However, establishing the necessary grid connections is technically complicated and also requires profound reforms to the Ukrainian electricity sector. But it is not only Ukraine that has to deliver; the EU and its member states will also have to make far-reaching and hugely significant geopolitical decisions. The project needs a politically coordinated roadmap that defines clear criteria and conditions for a common electricity grid.
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Alessandro Cascavilla Author-Name-First Alessandro (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain and Department of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Italy); Jordi Ripollés (Institute of International Economics and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Andrea Morone (Department of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Italy)
    Abstract: Despite the extensive literature examining determinants of tax morale, little is still known about the relationship between the associational involvement of citizens and their willingness to pay taxes. Given the insights offered by the social capital literature regarding the role of voluntary organisations in shaping civic engagement, this study sets out to empirically investigate how membership of different types of associations could influence individual tax morale in Europe. With this in mind, we exploit the information available in the fifth wave of the European Values Study (EVS, 2017) for citizens of 34 countries. Unlike previous studies on tax morale, we classify the types of voluntary associations depending on their potential to build out-group “bridging” or in-group “bonding” social ties. In this study, to carry out the classification, three alternative approaches are considered which are based on the socio-demographic heterogeneity within associations, the interconnections between them, and a combination of both. Our findings show that, after controlling for different individual characteristics and country-specific unobserved heterogeneity, those survey respondents involved in bridging associations tend to exhibit higher levels of tax morale, while the opposite is found for bonding associations. The results are quite robust for the three approaches and different estimation strategies, including an instrumentalvariables methodology. In view of our findings, policies aimed at incentivising volunteering activities in more connected associations and in those that include more heterogeneous members seem appropriate to promote the public spiritedness of citizens.
    Keywords: tax morale; social capital; volunteering
    JEL: C25 H26
    Date: 2022

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