nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2022‒06‒13
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Poland's economy in the pandemic By Pawel Bukowski; Wojciech Paczos
  2. Russia's Ruble during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022: The role of implied volatility and attention By \v{S}tefan Ly\'ocsa; Tom\'a\v{s} Pl\'ihal
  3. Crime and weather. Evidence from the Czech Republic. By Vojtech Misak
  4. Joint foreign ownership and global value chains effects on productivity: A comparison of firms from Poland and Germany. By Sabina Szymczak; Aleksandra Parteka; Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz
  5. Does Public Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from Chinese Household Data By Can Xu; Andreas Steiner
  6. Housing Unaffordability and Adolescent Subjective Well-Being in China By Nie, Peng; Li, Qiaoge; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
  7. Market Making via Reinforcement Learning in China Commodity Market By Junshu Jiang; Thomas Dierckx; Duxiang Xiao; Wim schoutens
  8. The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis By Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
  9. Sanctions and the Exchange Rate By Oleg Itskhoki; Dmitry Mukhin
  10. Disruptive gratification: A thought-provoking impulse to pacify the Ukraine war By Pies, Ingo

  1. By: Pawel Bukowski; Wojciech Paczos
    Abstract: The Polish economy has largely managed to avoid the pandemic-induced troubles experienced in Western Europe. But as Pawel Bukowski and Wojtek Paczos argue, contrary to government claims of able stewardship, what has got the country through relatively unscathed is a combination of good fortune, making GDP a priority over health and restrictions centred more on personal freedoms than economic freedoms.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Productivity, Wellbeing, growth, gdp, Poland, labour markets
    Date: 2021–10–15
  2. By: \v{S}tefan Ly\'ocsa; Tom\'a\v{s} Pl\'ihal
    Abstract: The onset of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis has led to the rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble. In this study, we model intraday price fluctuations of the USD/RUB and the EUR/RUB exchange rates from the $1^{st}$ of December 2021 to the $7^{th}$ of March 2022. Our approach is novel in that instead of using daily (low-frequency) measures of attention and investor's expectations, we use intraday (high-frequency) data: google searches and implied volatility to proxy investor's attention and expectations. We show that both approaches are useful in predicting intraday price fluctuations of the two exchange rates, although implied volatility encompasses intraday attention.
    Date: 2022–05
  3. By: Vojtech Misak (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This article estimates the impact of weather on crime in the Czech Republic. Using detailed crime data during the years 2005-2015, I show that temperature has a significant positive effect on the total number of assaults, thefts, robberies and sexual crimes recorded. Furthermore, precipitation is found to have a negative significant effect on the number of assaults and sexual crimes committed. Finally, based on my results, temperature seems to cause an overall increase in assaults´˜ and thefts´˜ rates. Heat effect on sexual crimes is more a substitution effect between cold and hot days.
    Keywords: crime, temperature, precipitation
    JEL: K14 K42 K49
    Date: 2022–05
  4. By: Sabina Szymczak (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Aleksandra Parteka (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland)
    Abstract: The study confronts the joint effects of foreign ownership and its involvement in global value chains (GVC) on the productivity performance of firms from a catching-up country (Poland) and a leader economy (Germany). Domestic owned firms are less productive than foreign ones, which is particularly true at low GVC participation levels. However, as GVC involvement increases, the foreign ownership productivity premium decreases, leading to productivity catching up between foreign and domestic owned firms. This mechanism is similar in Poland and Germany. However, in the leader country (Germany), domestically-owned firms' productivity performance is more stable along the GVC distribution.
    Keywords: GVC, FDI, productivity, firms, Amadeus database
    JEL: F23 F21 F61 D24 D22
    Date: 2022–05
  5. By: Can Xu; Andreas Steiner
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of public employment on household saving rates in China using representative household-level data. After controlling for a series of variables such as income, risk attitude, financial literacy, and demographic factors, we show that households headed by public employees have higher saving rates than other households. This positive association holds after controlling for self-selection bias. Public employees are more likely to save for their children and they have a higher saving capacity than non-public employees due to better social security. Our results contribute to a better understanding of Chinese household saving rates, which is of great importance given their extremely high level in international comparison.
    Keywords: public employment, household saving rates, Chinese economy
    JEL: D14 E24 H31 G51
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Li, Qiaoge (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Sousa-Poza, Alfonso (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: Using the 2010-2018 waves of the China Family Panel Studies, we investigate the impact of housing unaffordability on subjective well-being (SWB) among Chinese adolescents aged 10-15. Using a combined methodology of propensity score matching and fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations, we show that housing unaffordability leads to higher levels of depression, with more pronounced impacts among older adolescents (aged 13-15), those from migrant and urban families, and those living in regions with high housing prices and expensive living costs. These results are robust not only to alternative housing unaffordability and SWB measures but to a series of estimation approaches that control for endogeneity. An additional structural equation modelling analysis of underlying pathways further reveals that this housing unaffordability-SWB relation is mediated by paternal depression and (lower) adolescent trust in parents.
    Keywords: housing unaffordability, depression, adolescents, China
    JEL: D10 I10 I31 J13 R21
    Date: 2022–05
  7. By: Junshu Jiang; Thomas Dierckx; Duxiang Xiao; Wim schoutens
    Abstract: Market maker is an important role in financial market. A successful market maker should control inventory risk, adverse selection risk, and provides liquidity to the market. Reinforcement Learning, as an important methodology in control problems, enjoys the advantage of data-driven and less rigid assumption, receive great attentions in market making field since 2018. However, although China Commodity market, which has biggest trading volume on agricultural products, nonferrous metals and some other sectors, the study of applies RL on Market Making in China market is still rare. In this thesis, we try to fill the gap. We develop the Automatic Trading System and verify the feasibility of applying Reinforcement Learning in China Commodity market. Also, we probe the agent behavior by analyzing how it reacts to different environment conditions.
    Date: 2022–05
  8. By: Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market. Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilizing food security in these regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, India and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. Any calls to move towards a centrally planned economy or autarky are strongly advised against, as this would only be to the detriment of food security in the Global South.
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Oleg Itskhoki; Dmitry Mukhin
    Abstract: We show that the exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate depending on the specific mix of sanctions imposed, even if the underlying equilibrium allocation is the same. Sanctions that limit a country's imports tend to appreciate the country’s exchange rate, while sanctions that limit exports and/or freeze net foreign assets tend to depreciate it. Increased precautionary household demand for foreign currency is another force that depreciates the exchange rate, and it can be offset with domestic financial repression of foreign currency savings. The overall effect depends on the balance of currency demand and currency supply forces, where exports and official reserves contribute to currency supply and imports and foreign currency precautionary savings contribute to currency demand. Domestic economic downturn and government fiscal deficits are additional forces that affect the equilibrium exchange rate. The dynamic behavior of the ruble exchange rate following Russia's military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting sanctions is entirely consistent with the combined effects of these mechanisms.
    JEL: E50 F31 F32 F41 F51
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: This short text suggests that Germany and the European Union should generously welcome not only war refugees from Ukraine, but also Russian soldiers who have deserted. As a disruptive gratification, this would be a humanitarian contribution to asymmetric warfare and would support Ukraine's existing measures with credibility and resources.
    Keywords: ordonomics,business ethics,Ukraine war,disruptive gratification,Ordonomik,Wirtschaftsethik,Ukrainekrieg,Disruptive Belohnung
    Date: 2022

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