nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒11‒22
thirteen papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The COVID-19 Curtain: Can Past Communist Regimes Explain the Vaccination Divide in Europe? By Berniell, Maria Ines; Fawaz, Yarine; Laferrere, Anne; Mira, Pedro; Pronkina, Elizaveta
  2. Measuring Market Liquidity and Liquidity Mismatches across Sectors By Arthur Akhmetov; Anna Burova; Natalia Makhankova; Alexey Ponomarenko
  3. Azerbaijan's integration in the BRI Middle Corridor: Is WTO accession needed By Nahmadova, Firuza
  4. Regression analysis of selected technical and economic parameters of the residential market in the Czech Republic By Eduard Hromada
  6. Forecasting internal migration in Russia using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg By Fantazzini, Dean; Pushchelenko, Julia; Mironenkov, Alexey; Kurbatskii, Alexey
  7. The role of risk attitudes and expectations in household borrowing in Estonia By Eva Brandten
  8. Europeanization and EU democratic conditionality process in Albania By Josif Gjani
  9. Upscaling energy efficiency via energy communities By Jan Pojar; Jakub Kvasnica
  10. Research productivity: trend and comparative analyses by regions and continents By Diop, Samba; Asongu, Simplice
  11. Socioeconomic factors and shifts in ideological orientation among political parties: Parliamentary elections in Slovakia from 1998 to 2020 By Bačo, Tomáš; Baumöhl, Eduard
  12. Without liberty and justice, what extremes to expect? Two contemporary perspectives By Miller, Marcus; Zissimos, Ben
  13. Tax compliance in post-transition: You and your friends matter, not the government By Natalia Levenko; Karsten Staehr

  1. By: Berniell, Maria Ines (University of La Plata); Fawaz, Yarine (CEMFI, Madrid); Laferrere, Anne (Université Paris-Dauphine); Mira, Pedro; Pronkina, Elizaveta (Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: As of November 2021, all former Communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe exhibit lower vaccination rates than Western European countries. Can institutional inheritance explain, at least in part, this heterogeneity in vaccination decisions across Europe? To study this question we exploit novel data from the second wave of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe) Covid-19 Survey fielded in Summer 2021 that covers 27 European countries and Israel. First, we document lower Covid-19 vaccine take-up amongst individuals above 55 years old who were born under Communism in Europe. Next, we turn to reunified Germany to get closer to a causal effect of exposure to Iron curtain regimes. We find that exposure to the Communist regime in East Germany decreases one's probability to get vaccinated against Covid-19 by 8 percentage points, increases that of not wanting the vaccine by 4 percentage points. Both effects are quite large and statistically significant, and they hold when controlling for individual socio-economic and demographic characteristics. We identify low social capital -measured as voluntary work, political engagement, trust in people- as a plausible channel through which past Communist regimes would still affect individuals' preferences for Covid-19 vaccination.
    Keywords: SHARELIFE, vaccination, Communism, COVID-19
    JEL: I15 I12 P36 Z18
    Date: 2021–11
  2. By: Arthur Akhmetov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Makhankova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: We offer tools for measuring, monitoring and analysing the liquidity of financial markets in the context of various liquidity aspects. The liquidity mismatch concept makes it possible to assess how liquidity risk acceptance varies across economic sectors. We calculate liquidity indices – that is, liquidity mismatch indicators, and conduct a comparative analysis of the degree of liquidity risk acceptance by various sectors of the Russian economy. The values of liquidity indices in the household sector vary significantly across countries, depending on the degree of population involvement in the stock market. We use the proposed tools to assess the development of financial market segments in Russia and conduct cross-country comparisons of the degree of liquidity of capital markets. Higher liquidity of financial markets is associated with a higher development of these markets; however, this is fraught with liquidity risks that may lead to financial losses. Considering the concept of liquidity in various aspects, we expand the discussion of the availability and development of long-term investment financing in Russia.
    Keywords: market liquidity, liquidity mismatch, liquidity risks, bank-based and market- based financing, financial instruments, balances of financial assets and liabilities
    JEL: G10 G23 O16
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Nahmadova, Firuza
    Abstract: Azerbaijan’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been under discussion since the late 1990s, however this process is not any closer to being achieved today. Despite the government’s multiple economic reforms and the implementation of strategic roadmaps, the same can not be said about Azerbaijan’s commitment to bilateral and multilateral market access negotiations (WTO 2017). The objective of this article is to investigate the potential impact of WTO accession on the economic strategy of Azerbaijan. Contrary to other WTO members, China does not automatically apply the Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate to non-members. The cost-benefit analysis in this paper suggests that the Azerbaijani goods with the highest untapped potential in China suffer from the application of the General Tariff Rate (GTR) versus the MFN tariff applied to all WTO members (China Customs 2021; International Trade Center, 2021). Findings suggest that Azerbaijan’s WTO accession is required for this country to integrate into the Middle Corridor and reap its benefits fully.
    Keywords: Trade, Azerbaijan, China, WTO, customs, tariffs, Middle Corridor
    JEL: C15 F13 F17 O19 O53
    Date: 2021–05
  4. By: Eduard Hromada (Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering)
    Abstract: Currently, there is an increasing interest in the real estate market and many small and large investors regularly monitor real estate prices and price trends at the national and regional level. The covid-19 pandemic has caused a change in long-term trends in the real estate market. The paper deals with a regression analysis of selected technical and economic parameters that affect the real estate market in the Czech Republic. Specifically, these parameters are: the relationship between the average mortgage rate and the price of an apartment for sale, the relationship between the average mortgage rate and the number of properties offered for sale and the influence of the existence of a terrace, balcony or loggia on the unit price of the apartment. The results of the work are based on the EVAL software, which collects data on real estate advertising in the Czech Republic.
    Keywords: Real estate market, EVAL software, regression analysis
    JEL: C13 C35 R31
    Date: 2021–10
  5. By: Mathias Juust
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects on the exports of Estonian firms of the Russian export shock of 2014, which was a multifaceted negative market-wide income shock. The dataset covers all the Estonian exporters that exported to Russia in 2013 and the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-difference method in combination with the coarsened exact matching method to account for heterogeneities between the treatment and control groups. I find that the wholesalers affected were able to show better export performance after the shock than direct exporters were. The trade performance after the shock was lower for both wholesalers and direct exporters that had lower initial productivity levels.
    Keywords: export shock, firm-level trade effects, trade effects, trade policy
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Fantazzini, Dean; Pushchelenko, Julia; Mironenkov, Alexey; Kurbatskii, Alexey
    Abstract: This paper examines the suitability of Google Trends data for the modeling and forecasting of interregional migration in Russia. Monthly migration data, search volume data, and macro variables are used with a set of univariate and multivariate models to study the migration data of the two Russian cities with the largest migration inflows: Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The empirical analysis does not provide evidence that the more people search online, the more likely they are to relocate to other regions. However, the inclusion of Google Trends data in a model improves the forecasting of the migration flows, because the forecasting errors are lower for models with internet search data than for models without them. These results also hold after a set of robustness checks that consider multivariate models able to deal with potential parameter instability and with a large number of regressors.
    Keywords: Migration; Forecasting; Google Trends; VAR; Cointegration; ARIMA; Russia; Time-varying VAR; Multivariate Ridge regression.
    JEL: C22 C32 C52 C53 C55 F22 J11 O15 R23
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Eva Brandten
    Abstract: This study investigates the relations between risk attitudes and expectations and different aspects of borrowing by households in Estonia. The central research question is whether risk aversion and optimism provide additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics in explaining borrowing behaviour. The paper uses microdata from the Estonian Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) to estimate probit and Heckman models. My analysis shows that risk-tolerant households apply for loans more often than risk-averse households do and that their loans are larger. For mortgage loans, risk aversion is related to the probability of having a loan, whereas for non-mortgage loans, risk aversion is related to the size of the outstanding liabilities. The variables describing the household’s expectations for its future financial situation are on their own related to the decision to apply for a loan, but they do not contain any relevant additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics of the household
    Keywords: household debt, mortgage loans, non-mortgage loans, borrowing decisions, income and price expectations, risk attitudes, Household Finance and Consumption Survey
    JEL: G51 D14
    Date: 2021–11–10
  8. By: Josif Gjani (Faculty of Economics, University of Tirana)
    Abstract: Albania and the European Union (EU) signed the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) in June 2006, which entered into force in April 2009. The main aim of the paper is to discuss on the EU democratic conditionality process in Albania and its relations to ?Europeanization? concept. Aside from Europeanization, the paper examines the opinions of several high EU representatives and local experts regarding the integration process and its political and economic conditionality. It tries to make an analysis also on the present progress and future challenges. European integration, through its democratic conditioning, is a new option for Albania, and it is impacting the internal local governance with new instruments, models and policies.
    Keywords: Europeanization, Albania, EU integration, IPA, European Commission
    JEL: A10 E60
    Date: 2021–10
  9. By: Jan Pojar (Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering); Jakub Kvasnica (Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering)
    Abstract: The European Union promotes the concept of energy communities as a tool for achieving ambitious goals in decarbonisation of the European economy. Potentially, energy communities can bring multiple benefits; they are seen as a way for more efficient power sharing and decentralization and decarbonisation of energy generation as well as increasing locally produced renewable energy.The aim of the article is to examine establishing and operation of energy communities in the context of the Czech Republic. The article explores current and upcoming legislation on energy communities, the first of its kind that would set the regulatory framework for energy communities for a foreseeable future.The article describes case studies of energy communities with regard to their implementation in the conditions of the Czech Republic. Case studies focus on technical solutions for modern and renewable energy sources suitable for operation in energy communities.The article concludes with a summary of barriers, e.g. in the field of property rights and their possible solutions, and benefits of energy communities implementation, such as better distribution of investment costs and the possibility of implementing larger projects, subsequent savings in energy costs, facilitation of renewable energy sources and decentralization of energy production.The article also discusses the necessary steps for removing the barriers, which would subsequently accelerate the implementation of energy communities.
    Keywords: Energy community; Energy production; Energy generation; Energy Decentralization; Decarbonisation
    JEL: D00 Q42 Q43
    Date: 2021–10
  10. By: Diop, Samba; Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: Using data for the period 2000 to 2019, the aim of this paper is to: (i) profile and compare research publications in regions and continents worldwide namely Africa, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Northern America, Latin America, the Asiatic region, the Pacific region and the Middle East; (ii) assess factors associated with research productivity and (iii) verify if African countries are closing the deep gap of research production and by extension, detect factors on which to improve and boost the catch-up process. The empirical evidence is based on the Poisson regression model, quantile regression for counts data and panel negative binomial regression. The findings can be summarised as follows: (i) continuous and linear increasing trends in the production of knowledge are noted in developing regions specifically in Africa even if the contribution of the continent to global research is marginal; (ii) in countries with least production, ‘internet users’ is not significant but schooling modulates its effect on research production contrarily to countries in the upper part of the distribution and (iii) in Africa, if the number of schooling years increases by one, the number of documents or published works produced is expected to increase by a factor of 1.147.
    Keywords: Research productivity; economic development; count data
    JEL: F42 O10 O30 O38 O57
    Date: 2021–05
  11. By: Bačo, Tomáš; Baumöhl, Eduard
    Abstract: We analyze the election results of political parties and ideological blocs in parliamentary elections held in the Slovak Republic from 1998 to 2020 across 79 districts (LAU 1 level). Interestingly, correlations among parties’ election results between consecutive elections are very high across all elections from 1998 until 2016, meaning that any increase or decrease in electoral support was almost uniform across all districts from one election to another. The last elections disrupted this trend, and in line with the significantly lower degree of correlation with prior elections for all ideological groups, we observe territorially heterogeneous voting behavior. Especially in districts with left-wing support, the electorate shifted toward what we refer to as ideologically vague parties. Within a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) framework, we show that systematic influence of economic variables on the election results is present only for right-wing parties. For other ideological blocs, age and population density appear to be more influential factors. The “economically rational” right-wing election camp, however, has exhibited a decline in electoral support.
    Keywords: Economic voting,Elections,Popularity,Government support,Populism
    JEL: D72 E24 E61 P20
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Zissimos, Ben (Exeter University Business School)
    Abstract: From a wide-ranging historical survey, Acemoglu and Robinson conclude that the preservation of liberty depends on being in a ‘narrow corridor’ where there is a balance of power between the state and society. We first examine the support Binmore's game-theoretic treatment of Social Contracts provides for such a ‘narrow corridor’ of liberty and justice – and what extremes to expect without them. We also consider how the biological model of Competing Species helps to describe the dynamics of conflicting powers outside the narrow corridor– where, as in contemporary Russia and China, any Social Contracts that exist are neither free nor fair.
    Keywords: liberty ; social contracts ; repeated games ; Competing Species ; anarchy ; Despotism ; Neofeudalism JEL Classification: C70 ; C73 ; P00 ; Z13
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Natalia Levenko; Karsten Staehr
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature that seeks to assess the importance of various theories on tax evasion by individuals. The various theories can be distinguished in detail using a very fine-grained survey of Estonian residents that was collected in three rounds from 2018 to 2020. Principal component analysis shows that the survey replies are mutually consistent and form distinct clusters that match key theories on tax evasion. Logit estimations of tax compliance use the principal components and various control variables as covariates. Theories of individual rational choice do not gain support. Factors associated with personal norms and with social norms and customs are important for tax compliance. Importantly, theories of reciprocity that depict a positive relation between approval of the government and tax compliance receive no support, possibly reflecting the wide spread of views on the role of government in post-transition Estonia. Sample splits reveal that the results apply broadly across various subsets of taxpayers. The results of the principal component regressions are corroborated by logit estimations where the survey variables enter individually
    Keywords: tax evasion, monetary and non-monetary motives, auditing, behavioural choice, norms and customs, reciprocity
    JEL: H26 H83
    Date: 2021–11–10

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