nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒11‒15
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Is Military Spending Quantitatively Important for Business Cycle Fluctuations? By Aleksandar Vasilev
  2. The COVID-19 Curtain: Can Past Communist Regimes Explain the Vaccination Divide in Europe By Inés Berniell; Yarine Fawaz; Anne Laferrère; Pedro Mira; Elizaveta Pronkina
  3. Does Economic Growth Stimulate Energy Consumption? The Role of Human Capital and R&D Expenditures in China By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Song, Malin; Ahmad, Shabbir; Vo, Xuan Vinh
  5. Does the geographic clustering of universities promote their scientific research performance? Evidence from China By Chu, Shuai; Wu, Mengfei
  6. Network analysis regarding international trade network By Xiufeng Yan; Qi Tang
  7. Technological Diffusion and Productivity Convergence across European Regions: A Spatial Approach over the Period 2000-2015 By Fabio Manca; Giuseppe Piroli
  8. The impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam: An empirical investigation By Musakwa, Mercy T; Odhiambo , Nicholas M
  9. Security and safety of tourists as a factor for sustainable tourism, based on the example of Bulgarian black sea resorts By Georgieva, Daniela; Bankova, Diyana
  10. An Autocratic Middle-Class in Azerbaijan: Does State Dependency Lead to Authoritarian Resiliency By Nahmadova, Firuza

  1. By: Aleksandar Vasilev
    Abstract: We introduce a military sector and external security considerations into a real-business-cycle setup with a public sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2018). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of a military sector and external threat considerations for the cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. We find the quantitative effect of such aspects to be very small, and thus not important for business cycle stabilization, or public finance issues, as in Bulgaria the spending on military is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.
    Keywords: Business cycles, military spending, security considerations, external threats, Bulgaria
    JEL: E24 E32
    Date: 2021–01–03
  2. By: Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Yarine Fawaz (CEMFI); Anne Laferrère (Universit´e Paris-Dauphine); Pedro Mira (CEMFI); Elizaveta Pronkina (Universit´e Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: As of November 2021, all former Communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe exhibit lower vaccination rates than Western European countries. Can institutional inheritance explain, at least in part, this heterogeneity in vaccination decisions across Europe? To study this question we exploit novel data from the second wave of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe) Covid-19 Survey fielded in Summer 2021 that covers 27 European countries and Israel. First, we document lower Covid-19 vaccine take-up amongst individuals above 55 years old who were born under Communism in Europe. Next, we turn to reunified Germany to get closer to a causal effect of exposure to Iron curtain regimes. We find that exposure to the Communist regime in East Germany decreases one’s probability to get vaccinated against Covid-19 by 8 percentage points, increases that of not wanting the vaccine by 4 percentage points. Both effects are quite large and statistically significant, and they hold when controlling for individual socio-economic and demographic characteristics. We identify low social capital -measured as voluntary work, political engagement, trust in people- as a plausible channel through which past Communist regimes would still affect individuals’ preferences for Covid-19 vaccination.
    JEL: I15 I12 P36 Z18
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Song, Malin; Ahmad, Shabbir; Vo, Xuan Vinh
    Abstract: This study evaluates the link between human capital, energy consumption, and economic growth using data for the Chinese economy from 1971 to 2018. To test the cointegration relationship between disaggregated energy, human capital, and economic growth, a bounds testing approach is applied by taking the structural breaks into consideration. The estimated results confirm that these variables are integrated. Further, human capital accumulation has a statistically significant negative effect on all types of energy consumption. We note a positive link between energy usage and economic growth. However, a significant negative relationship is found between R&D expenditures, and energy consumption. The results also show a one-way causal effect of human capital on all forms of energy consumption. However, the association between economic growth, dirty energy usage, and clean energy usage remains interdependent, indicating a feedback effect. Further, energy consumption and R&D exhibit bidirectional causal relationship.
    Keywords: Human Capital, Energy Consumption, China
    JEL: Q2
    Date: 2021–10–13
  4. By: Fatima Farakhdust (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Asian region has become inhabited by few rising powers since late 20th century, triggering the debate on multipolarity and power transition in the region. On the one hand, shared historical past and sociocultural background may provide point of convergence and strengthen the existing stable state of affairs. On the other, comparable development challenges produce similar aims and strategies, fostering competition for scarce resources and leading to a regional zero-sum game. It ought to be especially true in the face of the rising China. Contemporary regional agenda of East and Southeast Asia, hence, is claimed to be substantially affected by Chinese power politics and ambitions, especially regarding mutually beneficial cooperation on development. Thus, discourse analysis of the respective context and agenda should be applied in order to study compatibility of national and regional goals. To do this, the author studies dominant approaches to Chinese regionalism and outcomes of economic policy focusing on the case of development finance. The analysis is performed using mixed research methods, including Foucauldian discourse, content analyses, descriptive statistics, and geographic mapping. The distribution of development aid and investments has highlighted that financial assistance might be politicized and used as a tool for subtle promotion of Chinese policy objectives, rather than as a driving force of collective regional development.
    Keywords: Chinese foreign policy, development, development finance, East and Southeast Asia, regionalism
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Chu, Shuai; Wu, Mengfei
    Abstract: The fundamental purpose of university geographic clustering is to gather resources through "agglomeration" to improve the performance of higher education and scientific research. However, it has been debated whether university clusters can achieve the latter goal. With the help of the “quasi-experiment” of Chinese "University Towns" project in the 1990s, this study determines the impact of university clusters on scientific research performance. Panel data of 2000 colleges and universities from 1993 to 2017 in the compilation of scientific and technical statistics of Chinese higher education and time-varying difference in differences method are used. The results show that the cluster of colleges and universities have a significant negative impact on the scientific research performance due to technological dis-proximity and rising commuting costs. And the clustering effect is related to the number of participating schools and the level of the university. Therefore, university clustering cannot effectively promote the performance of scientific research and unable to bring agglomeration economies.
    Keywords: University cluster,Economies of agglomeration,Scientific research performance,Time-varying difference in differences method
    JEL: I23 O38 O53
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Xiufeng Yan; Qi Tang
    Abstract: We study the effect of globalization of world economy between 1980 and 2010 by using network analysis technics on trade and GDP data of 71 countries in the world. We draw results distinguishing relatively developing and relatively developed countries during this period of time and point out the standing out economies among the BRICS countries during the years of globalization: within our context of study, China and Russia are the countries that already exhibit developed economy characters, India is next in line but have some unusual features, while Brazil and South Africa still have erratic behaviors
    Date: 2021–11
  7. By: Fabio Manca; Giuseppe Piroli
    Abstract: What are the drivers of growth and convergence in productivity at regional level? Differences in the stock of human capital across regions are hypothesized to be the major cause of differences in the speed by which following regions converge and catch-up with the most advanced ones. In addition, we test the role played by R&D expenditures and institutions exploiting a database covering European regions from 1995 to 2015, which includes regional total factor productivity (TFP) computed by the conventional residual approach. We find robust empirical evidence for these hypotheses in terms of both model specifications and sectoral disaggregation.
    Keywords: Regional Studies, European Regions, Catching-up, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: P48 D24 J24 E02 C31 C33
    Date: 2021–10–07
  8. By: Musakwa, Mercy T; Odhiambo , Nicholas M
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.
    Keywords: autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), external debt, foreign direct investment, poverty, Vietnam.
    Date: 2021–10
  9. By: Georgieva, Daniela; Bankova, Diyana
    Abstract: Different types of crimes are factors negatively affecting tourism worldwide. However, managers and even tourists themselves are refraining from submitting crime reports and whistleblows. The main goal of the study is to analyze the attitude of the hotels’ managers on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, regarding the submission of whistleblows to the competent authorities. In particular, managers of hotels in Albena, Golden Sands, Dunes, St. Constantine and Helena, and Sunny Beach are studied. The main research hypothesis is that hotel managers should ensure the safety of guests by reducing gaps in the control environment, preventing financial frauds, helping for environmental protection, and supporting the process of reporting crimes and suspicious behavior in the hotels. However, the current management policy relies mainly on the installed security devices and the Security Department staff. This results in applying no specific internal rules, procedures, and training for non-security department employees, regarding crime identification and timely reporting. The adopted research methods are based on the logical, deductive, and comparative methods, as well as on the methods of analysis and synthesis. For the empirical study, the method of in-depth interviews is used. The results of the study support the literature by presenting more in-depth data regarding the used security devices and assets by Bulgarian Black Sea resort hotels. Also, more data on the attitude of hotel managers on the safety and security of tourists and the submission of whistleblows, as a factor for sustainable development of tourism on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, is presented
    Keywords: hotels’ security devices, crime reports, whistleblow, national safety, audit
    JEL: K14 L83 M42
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Nahmadova, Firuza
    Abstract: It is often assumed in the ’political economy research of the last decade, as well as by theories on democratization waves and the fall of authoritarian states, that the rise of a middle class eventually leads to a democratic transition. Throughout the 20th century, many democratic transitions were led by mass mobilizations of the middle classes. Middle-class movements and industrial worker groups were associated with higher democratic support and mobilization from 1900 to 2013 (NAVCO 2014). In her book The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy (2020), Bryn Rosenfeld studies this relationship in the post-Soviet region. A large portion of this article is based on her research.
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, middle class, income inequality, democracy, regime change
    JEL: H13 J31 O10 O53
    Date: 2021–10

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