nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒10‒18
thirteen papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Career-breaks and Maternal Employment in CEE Countries By Alena Bicakova; Klara Kaliskova
  2. "Sorry, You're Blocked." Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy By Mikhail Mamonov; Anna Pestova
  3. Can Non-Cognitive Skills Explain The Gender Wage Gap In Russia? An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach By Ksenia V. Rozhkova; Natalya Yemelina; Sergey Yu. Roshchin
  4. Banks’ interest rate setting and transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit By Tatiana Grishina; Alexey Ponomarenko
  5. A tale of sky and desert: Translation and imaginaries in transnational windows of institutional opportunity By Maximilian Benner
  6. Fiscal Reform in the Republic of Moldova. Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (SDGE) simulation By Vîntu, Denis
  7. Designing Macro-Financial Scenarios: The New CNB Framework and Satellite Models for Property Prices and Credit By Miroslav Plasil
  8. Taxing for inequalities: gender budgeting in the Western Balkans By Bojicic-Dzelilovic, Vesna; Hozić, Aida A
  9. Development of a model for monitoring the needs for innovation in furniture enterprises in Bulgaria By Popova-Terziyska, Radostina; Neykov, Nikolay; Georgieva, Daniela
  10. Warning: Some Transaction Prices can be Detrimental to your House Price Index By Robert J. Hill; Norbert Pfeifer; Miriam Steurer; Radoslaw Trojanek
  11. Exploring the conjunction between the structures of deposit and credit markets in the digital economy under information asymmetry By Elena Deryugina; Alexey Ponomarenko; Andrey Sinyakov
  12. Preventive monetary and macroprudential policy response to anticipated shocks to financial stability By Konstantin Styrin; Alexander Tishin
  13. Promoting school readiness through a preschool feeding program: A nutritional nudge to improve at-risk preschooler’s cognitive development in Armenia By Knauer, Heather A.; Balasanyan, Sona; Bakhshinyan, Elmira; Alderman, Harold

  1. By: Alena Bicakova; Klara Kaliskova
    Abstract: Post-birth career breaks and their impact on mothers’ labor market outcomes have received considerable attention in the literature. However, existing evidence comes mostly from Western Europe and the US, where career breaks tend to be short. In contrast, Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, where post-birth career interruptions by mothers are typically much longer, have rarely been studied. In the first part of this study, we place CEE countries into the EU context by providing key empirical facts related to the labor market outcomes of mothers and the most important factors that may affect them. Besides substantial differences between CEE countries and the rest of the EU, there is also large heterogeneity within CEE itself, which we explore next. In the second part, we review the main family leave and formal childcare policies and reforms that have occurred in CEE countries since the end of Communism and provide a comprehensive survey of the existing scientific evidence of their impact on maternal employment. While research on the causal impacts of these policies is scarce, several important studies have recently been published in high-impact journals. We are the first to provide an overview of these causal studies from CEE countries, which offer an insightful extension to the existing knowledge from Western Europe and the US.
    Keywords: CEE countries; labor market, motherhood;
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Mikhail Mamonov; Anna Pestova
    Abstract: How large are the macroeconomic effects of financial sanctions and how one can distinguish the sanction shocks from other aggregate shocks affecting the economy at the same time? We employ a Bayesian (S)VAR model to estimate the effects of the Western financial sanctions imposed on the Russian economy in 2014 (first wave) and 2017 (second wave). The sanctions decreased the Russia’s corporate external debt and raised the country spread, but their effects were confounded by falling oil prices in 2014 (negative terms-of-trade, TOT, shock) and rising oil prices in 2017. We begin disentangling the sanction and TOT effects with a conditional forecasting approach, in which we simulate pseudo out-of-sample projections of domestic macroeconomic variables conditioned (i) solely on the oil price changes and then (ii) on both oil prices and external debt deleveraging. For each endogenous variable, we treat the difference between the two projections as the effect of sanctions. We then apply a structural approach to identify sanction shocks. Our results consistently indicate that the sanction effects were negative and non-negligible across the two sanction waves, being sizeable for the financial variables (real interest rate and corporate external debt) and moderate for the real variables (output, consumption, investment, trade balance, and the ruble real exchange rate). We argue that the estimated effects of sanctions are in line with the theoretical predictions from the literature on country spread shocks in open economies.
    Keywords: financial sanctions; corporate external debt; country spread shocks; terms-of-trade shocks; Bayesian (S)VAR; sign restrictions; conditional forecasting; small open economy;
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Ksenia V. Rozhkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalya Yemelina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey Yu. Roshchin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Non-cognitive skills are widely recognized in economics as an important factor that affects various individual outcomes, including wages and employment. Non-cognitive skills can also serve as an additional explanation for the gender wage gap. This paper disentangles the complex relationship between non-cognitive skills and the gender wage gap based on Russian data. Data are collected from a nationally representative Russian survey RLMS-HSE and include detailed information on individuals aged 20–60. We use the Big Five factor model, locus of control, and attitudes towards risk to represent non-cognitive skills. Our findings suggest that non-cognitive skills account for up to 8 per cent of the gender wage gap, although significant variation is observed with different measures of personality and across the wage distribution. We conclude that personality traits are noteworthy but not exhaustive factors in the gender wage gap, and there are other unobserved factors which researchers have yet to identify.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, non-cognitive skills, personality traits, unconditional quantile regression, Russia
    JEL: J16 J24 J31
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Tatiana Grishina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Assuming that a central bank is successful in steering money market interest rates, commercial banks’ loan rate setting behaviour is not expected to change during a transition between liquidity surplus and deficit. However, this logic does not hold if a bank employs different money market instruments for the lending and borrowing activities. In this environment, it may be appropriate to adjust the loan rates when a bank transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit (i.e. switches between the benchmark money market rates). This strategy is fundamentally different from linking the loan rates to the average cost of funding (i.e. the average between retail and wholesale funding rates). The magnitude of such loan rate adjustment is limited by the (usually moderate) spread between the funding and investment money market rates.
    Keywords: Excess reserves, Lending rates, Fund transfer pricing, Russia
    JEL: E43 E51 E58 G21 C63
    Date: 2021–10
  5. By: Maximilian Benner
    Abstract: Institutional change in regional economies is affected by macro-level developments such as alignment with the EU and its markets. Countries in Europe’s Eastern and Southern neighborhood provide a case for gradual economic integration into the EU’s economic space. Processes of alignment and mutual market liberalization shape the macro-level conditions for regional development in neighborhood countries but do so in variegated ways as they are translated into the regional institutional context. Building on literature on institutional entrepreneurship, cultural political economy, and actor-network theory, this article argues that EU alignment opens a transnational window of institutional opportunity for agents to shape regional development through translation. In this often contested translation process, institutional entrepreneurs draw on imaginaries, narratives, and visions and shape them. The paper argues that imaginaries are a useful analytical device to understand the interaction between agency and structure in institutional change. The empirical case of tourism in Israel's Southern Negev illustrates the impact of the country's integration into the EU's external aviation policy at the regional tourism sector as well as the strategies of institutional entrepreneurs to use this transnational window of institutional opportunity to promote diverse patterns of institutional change based on multiple imaginaries.
    Keywords: institutional change, institutional entrepreneurship, imaginaries, European neighborhood, EU alignment, Israel, tourism
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Vîntu, Denis
    Abstract: The article describes a dynamic general equilibrium for the Republic of Moldova, in the context of declining oil prices and COVID-19. We try to introduce an intergenerational model with the stochastic component, where we describe each self-employed agent, rather we try to adapt the model in a simulative tax reform, a transition from the progressive system that currently we have to a flat tax. For our hypothesis, it is assumed that there are 4 cohorts of population, selected by level of education (secondary, high school, university and lifelong learning) that pay taxes in a system based on social solidarity. Thus, the first conclusions can be drawn, namely that the tax system with 4 different rates 12, 15, 19 and 23% is the one that best approaches the Pareto type optimum, as opposed to the flat tax, which respects dynamic equilibrium. Public budget revenues are simulated in IS-LM-Laffer framework. And the forecast of budget accumulation is made using 4 distinct prediction models: naïve random walk, ARIMA, univariate model (AR) and vector error correction model (VECM). In addition, the main result is placed on the hypothesis that the empirical testing suggest that, unlike complicated models that have difficulty overcoming naïve random walk imitation, using techniques of associating and including monetary and fiscal indicators in linear regression, as well as adding structural shapes, some parameters of the models are quite significant. Of these, it seems that the closest to the economic reality of the country is the univariate model (AR), being also the most relevant for predicting the out-put gap, but also the stochastic component: the basic interest rate of the NBM's monetary policy.
    Keywords: fiscal reform, monetary policy, cross-country convergence, prediction and forecasting methods, dynamic general equilibrium model, Pareto optimal balance, ARIMA modeling, time series analysis, Box – Jenkins method.
    JEL: C10 C15 E23 E31 E52 E62
    Date: 2021–04–30
  7. By: Miroslav Plasil
    Abstract: The paper sets out to present the Czech National Bank's new methodological framework for satellite models, i.e. models that link the macroeconomic scenario obtained from the core forecasting model with the evolution of key financial variables. Consistent macro-financial scenarios are particularly needed in macroprudential stress-testing. The paper describes the main underlying concepts of the new framework and provides further technical details on four newly deployed models for residential property prices and for bank loans in the main credit segments (housing loans, consumer loans and loans to non-financial corporations). The key advantage of the new approach is a shift to better-structured and more closely interrelated models. This should help maintain the internal consistency of the macro-financial scenario, facilitate communication of the assumptions behind the projections of financial variables and provide a high degree of robustness to structural changes in the economy.
    Keywords: Gaussian process regression, macroprudential policy, satellite models, stress testing
    JEL: C51 C53 E37 E51
    Date: 2021–09
  8. By: Bojicic-Dzelilovic, Vesna; Hozić, Aida A
    Abstract: This article seeks to illuminate structural limits of Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB) by analysing the interplay between economic and fiscal reforms, promoted by International Financial Institutions (IFIs), and gender budgeting initiatives in the Western Balkans. GRB is the core concept bridging revenue mobilization and gender equality in the work of IFIs. However, as the Western Balkans experience demonstrates, GRB initiatives are best characterized as “empty gestures” towards gender equality as they cannot compensate for the continued adverse effects of IFIs overall policies.
    Keywords: gender responsive budgeting; VAT; Western Balkans; revenue mobilization; consumptions-led growth; financialization; households
    JEL: N0 E6
    Date: 2020–11–01
  9. By: Popova-Terziyska, Radostina; Neykov, Nikolay; Georgieva, Daniela
    Abstract: There is a variety of methods for assessing and modelling the innovation factors that are presented in the specialized literature. However, out of the scope of those analyses is the use of the “First Alert” or the “signal line” approach. Through it the enterprises can analyze their need for innovation activities and the extent to which those innovations are needed. The main goal of the present study is to develop and analyze to use of a to make a decision whenever Bulgarian furniture enterprises have to implement innovation. The applied research methods are based on the logical, deductive, and comparative methods, as well as the “signal line” approach. This study proposes for the first time the use of a pan-European revenue regression curve and the number of innovative enterprises. The results show that the innovation activities must be, first of all, focused on the staff and then on the assets that the entity possesses and use. The results of the study support the development of the literature by presenting a more in-depth analysis of the possible ways to use the national statistical institute data for planning the innovation activities by furniture enterprises
    Keywords: innovation, furniture enterprises, modelling for monitoring
    JEL: M10 O30
    Date: 2021–06
  10. By: Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria); Norbert Pfeifer (University of Graz, Austria); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria); Radoslaw Trojanek (Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland)
    Abstract: There is a broad consensus in international statistical organizations such as Eurostat, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund that price indices should be constructed using transaction data. However, transaction data often lag behind actual market developments in the primary housing market (i.e., the market for new-builds) as prices are typically set months or years before the transactions are finalized. We find that for two large Polish cities (Warsaw and Poznan), secondary market house price indices (HPIs) (for existing properties) lead primary indices (for new builds) by, on average, eight quarters. In Poland and other countries with large primary-markets, this lag can dramatically distort National HPIs. The lag also affects the European Union’s flagship measure of inflation, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). This is because the HICP includes owner-occupied housing (on an experimental basis) using exclusively primary market transaction data. We illustrate here that replacing final transactions in the primary market with preliminary agreements would resolve these timeliness issues.
    Keywords: hedonic quality adjustment; dissimilarity metric; HICP; macroprudential supervision; timeliness; primary and secondary housing markets
    JEL: C43 E01 E31 R31
    Date: 2021–10
  11. By: Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: In the digital economy, customer data becomes particularly valuable. Customer transactions monitored by banks, payment systems, and retail platforms are a useful source of information to assess potential borrowers’ credit risk. Thus, a dominant player at a payment or deposit market, behaving strategically, may influence the characteristics of the lending market. In this article, we show, within the game-theoretic framework, that such dominance can affect the market structure, loan pricing, financial inclusion, and credit risk accumulated on banks’ balance sheets. Our results show that specifics of the digital economy set a new link between structures of deposit and credit markets. Information asymmetries allow the dominant player to increase its profits at the expense of the profits gained by other players. At the same time, the accessibility of loans to more risky borrowers reduces while credit risks of banks’ loan portfolios decline.
    Keywords: retail payments, banking, market structure, asymmetric information, customer data
    JEL: D43 D82 G21
    Date: 2021–09
  12. By: Konstantin Styrin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexander Tishin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a simple framework to study the optimal macroprudential and monetary policy interactions in response to financial shocks. Our model combines nominal rigidities and capital accumulation, features that have usually been studied separately in previous literature. In our model, we show that agents do not internalise how their asset purchases affect asset prices. Thus, when crises occur, there are fire sales: less demand for capital further reduces prices and agents are worse off. Policy interventions (both monetary and macroprudential) can improve allocations by restricting borrowing ex-ante (during the accumulation of risks and imbalances) and stimulating the economy ex-post (during crises). As a result, we find a complementary relationship between ex-ante monetary policy and preventive macroprudential policy. We also compare this result with a flexible-price model and a frictionless model and conduct several sensitivity analysis exercises.
    Keywords: Macroprudential policy, monetary policy, pecuniary externalities, nominal rigidities, financial frictions, capital accumulation.
    JEL: E44 E58 G28 D62
    Date: 2021–09
  13. By: Knauer, Heather A.; Balasanyan, Sona; Bakhshinyan, Elmira; Alderman, Harold
    Abstract: Many school feeding programs target child hunger, nutritional deficiencies, attendance, and education outcomes but often do not examine their effects on cognitive development. In this cluster-randomized controlled trial, we tested the effects of adding a morning snack to a school lunch program on the fluid intelligence of 951 children ages 4 to 6 years. While there were no significant effects on development overall, the morning snack improved short-term memory (STM) and total score on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Fourth Edition (WPPSI-IV) among children from the lowest quartile of household expenditures (STM: 0.35SD, p = 0.020; WPPSI-IV: 0.65SD, p = 0.087), and those whose mothers completed secondary school or less (STM: 0.35SD, p = 0.002; total WPPSI-IV: 0.81SD, p = 0.011). For at risk preschoolers, school snack programs may help meet their developmental needs.
    Keywords: ARMENIA; ASIA; school feeding; school meals; children; cognitive development; preschool children; nutrition; WPPSI
    Date: 2021

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