nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒10‒11
nine papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Equivalence scale and income poverty: Two approaches to estimate country-specific scale for the Czech Republic By Mysíková, Martina; Želinský, Tomáš; Jirková, Michaela; Večerník, Jiří
  2. Delivery Times in International Competition: An Empirical Investigation By Ciani, Andrea; Mau, Karsten
  3. Who Profits from Windfalls in Oil Tax Revenue? Inequality, Protests, and the Role of Corruption By Michael Alexeev; Nikita Zakharov
  4. The Impact of Delay: Evidence from Formal Out-of-Court Restructuring By Stjepan Srhoj; Dejan Kovac; Jacob N. Shapiro; Randall K. Filer
  5. Russia in Africa: Is great power competition returning to the continent? By Paczyńska, Agnieszka
  6. The Impact of Extractive Industries on Regional Diversification: Evidence from Vietnam By Moritz Breul; Thi Xuan Thu Nguyen;
  7. Inequality in Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Small Area Estimation Study By Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Nguyen, Khuong Duc; Tran, Tuyen Quang
  8. Labour migration to Germany based on the Western Balkans Regulation: Strong demand and sound labour market integration By Brücker, Herbert; Falkenhain, Mariella; Fendel, Tanja; Promberger, Markus; Raab, Miriam
  9. Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries: A Time-Varying Approach By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Abdurrahman Nazif Catik; Gül Serife Huyugüzel Kisla; Mohamad Husam Helmi; Coskun Akdeniz

  1. By: Mysíková, Martina; Želinský, Tomáš; Jirková, Michaela; Večerník, Jiří
    Abstract: The at-risk-of-poverty rate, the relative income poverty indicator applied in the EU, can be highly sensitive to the equivalence scale used to transform household income to an equivalent for individuals. This study applies two well-established approaches to estimate the equivalence scale: an 'objective' one, based on consumption expenditures available in the national Household Budget Survey, and a 'subjective' one, based on the Minimum Income Question available in EU-Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data. The aim is to contrast the two estimated equivalence scales in the Czech Republic in the 2006-2016 period with the OECD-modified scale applied uniformly for decades across the EU countries. Our findings suggest that the adult weight in the equivalence scale is decreasing over time, while the child weight is relatively stable under both approaches. The estimated weights are lower than the officially applied ones, with the exception of the expenditure-based adult weight, which is very close to the OECD-modified weight. Applying the estimated scales affects the income poverty rate and leads to different rates than the official ones: while the trend of the rates is similar when the two estimated scales are used, the official income poverty rate deviates from those two.
    Keywords: Czech Republic,equivalence scale,expenditures,income poverty rate,minimum income question
    JEL: I32 P46
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Ciani, Andrea (European Commission); Mau, Karsten (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of timely delivery in international competition. Using a demand-side, industry-specific measure of time-sensitivity, we assess the effect of Chinese competition on the export performance of Eastern European transition economies into Western European (EU15) destination-product markets. Our empirical analysis relies on exploiting the increase of Chinese competition in global markets during the first decade of the 2000s. We find evidence of heterogeneous adjustments to Chinese competition among Eastern European exporters due to the differential importance of timely delivery across sectors (i.e. timesensitivity). While we observe sizable real displacement effects, they appear to be at least 50 percent smaller for time-sensitive exports. Relying on firm-level customs data, we establish that this mechanism also plays a role for responses to Chinese competition within firms.
    Keywords: Time sensitivity, International Competition, China
    JEL: F14 F15 F61 L25
    Date: 2021–08
  3. By: Michael Alexeev (Indiana University); Nikita Zakharov (University of Freiburg - Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between oil windfalls and income inequality using the subnational data of one of the resource-richest and most unequal countries in the world – Russia. While previous literature has produced contradictory findings due to the use of an aggregate measure of oil rents in mainly cross-national settings, we focus exclusively on the oil rents that accrue to the subnational governments across one country. Our estimation strategy takes advantage of the two unique features of Russian oil taxation: 1) the change in oil-tax policy when sharing oil-extraction taxes with local budgets was discontinued; 2) the oil-tax formula tied directly to the international oil prices allowing to use the oil price shocks as an exogenous change in oil rents. When we look at the period with oil-tax revenues shared with the regional governments, we find that oil windfalls had increased income inequality and benefited the wealthiest quintile of the population in regions with more intense rent-seeking. Further, the positive oil price shocks combined with increased rent-seeking reduced the share of labor income but increased the income share from unidentified sources traditionally attributed to corruption. These effects of oil windfalls disappear after the Russian government discontinued oil-tax revenue sharing with regional governments. Finally, we examine the potential political implications of the rising inequality due to the appropriation of the oil windfalls. We find its positive effect on the frequency of protests associated with grievances among the poor and disadvantaged social groups; this effect, however, exists only in relatively democratic regions.
    Keywords: Oil, Decentralized Revenues, Income Inequality, Corruption, Protest, Russia
    Date: 2021–09
  4. By: Stjepan Srhoj; Dejan Kovac; Jacob N. Shapiro; Randall K. Filer
    Abstract: Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a “pre-bankruptcy settlement” (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtorcreditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms’ future prospects.
    Keywords: bankruptcy; insolvency; liquidation; restructuring;
    JEL: G33 G34 D02 L38 P37
    Date: 2021–08
  5. By: Paczyńska, Agnieszka
    Abstract: Since 2014, Russian involvement in Africa has grown significantly. African leaders have been receptive to these overtures as a result of increasing concerns about growing Chinese dominance, retrenchment of the United States (US) and their interest in diversifying trading and security partners. Russia cultivates these relationships by relying on the legacy of the Soviet Union's support for anti-colonial and liberation movements, and focuses on strengthening diplomatic, military and economic collaborations. This analysis shows that: * Overall, Russia's strategy in Africa appears to involve a mix of arms sales, political support to authoritarian leaders and security collaborations - in exchange for mining rights, business opportunities and diplomatic support for Russia's foreign policy preferences. The offers of military assistance and political support, especially for authoritarian leaders, have opened doors to Russian firms and strengthened diplomatic relationships. The support of African allies has been especially important to Russia at the United Nations (UN), where African countries account for a quarter of all votes in the General Assembly. * Russian trade and investment in Africa has grown significantly, particularly in north Africa. Yet, Russia remains a minor economic player on the continent in comparison to China, India or the US. Russia's support for smaller states, especially those that have been internationally shunned, gives Moscow significant influence in those countries. * As of autumn 2019, Russia had concluded military cooperation agreements with 21 African countries and is negotiating the establishment of military bases in a number of states. It is also providing counter-terrorism training. Russia is currently the largest supplier of arms to the continent. * Russia is increasing efforts to influence elections. Its strategy focuses on shoring up authoritarian strongmen in unstable yet resource-rich states thus bolstering these regimes' ability to persist. These priorities are in stark contrast to popular opinion on the continent, which favours democracy. * Russia remains a relatively minor economic and political player on the continent, and European Union (EU) and US concerns that Russian expansion in Africa draws the continent into a broader geopolitical struggle between great powers are overstated. * Germany and the EU should counter Russian assistance to authoritarian leaders by bolstering support for good governance and civil society strengthening initiatives.
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Moritz Breul; Thi Xuan Thu Nguyen;
    Abstract: Economic diversification is perceived as imperative to reduce resource-dependent economies’ vulnerability to a broader resource curse. Despite its importance, we know surprisingly little about the relationship between natural resource-dependence and economic diversification. The few insights that exist, remain on a country-level. But, since the importance of natural resource extraction differs across regions in the same country, it would be odd to assume that the effects of extractive industries on the diversification performance would be felt evenly countrywide. Also, extractive regions in the same country can manage to develop new non-extractive industries with varying success. Understanding this relationship on a regional level is important in order to identify conditions under which diversification of extractive regions is likely to materialize. This paper therefore aims to bring the study of the relationship between extractive industries and diversification to a regional level. To this end, we analyze how the regional importance of extractive industries has affected the entrance of non-extractive industries to Vietnamese provinces between 2006 and 2010. Furthermore, the study investigates to what extent region-specific conditions – that is the regional industrial profile and institutions - moderate the effect of the regional presence of extractive industries on regional diversification. Our findings reveal that extractive industries tend to constrain non-extractive industry entries on a regional level. However, the results also show that adequate regional institutions can moderate this negative effect on the regional diversification performance. Thereby the study underlines the need and value of studying the relationship between extractive industries and diversification also on a regional level.
    Keywords: Regional diversification, extractive industries, resource curse, relatedness, regional institutions, Vietnam
    Date: 2021–09
  7. By: Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Nguyen, Khuong Duc; Tran, Tuyen Quang
    Abstract: Our study uses a small area estimation method to estimate the average and inequality of per capita kWh consumption for small areas in Vietnam. It shows evidence of a large spatial heterogeneity in the electric power consumption between districts and provinces in Vietnam. Households in the mountains and highlands consumed remarkably less electricity than those in the delta and coastal areas. Notably, we find a U-shaped relationship between the inequality of electricity consumption and economic levels in Vietnam. In poor districts and provinces, there is very high inequality in electricity consumption. Inequality is lower in middle-income districts and provinces.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption,Energy inequality,Economic growth,Small area estimation,Vietnam
    JEL: O13 Q43 D63
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Falkenhain, Mariella (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fendel, Tanja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Promberger, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Raab, Miriam (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Citizens of the Western Balkan countries can take up employment in Germany due to the Western Balkans regulation without having to provide proof of adequate professional qualifications. So far, the regulation has been in high demand among both German companies and potential workers. We analyse the labour market integration of these employees, the experience of the employers and also the administrative implementation of the regulation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Kosovo ; Serbien ; Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Bosnien und Herzegowina ; Albanien ; Montenegro ; Nordmazedonien ; Asylbewerber ; ausländische Arbeitnehmer ; berufliche Integration ; EU-Bürger ; Drittstaatsangehörige ; Beschäftigerverhalten ; Beschäftigungsdauer ; Einwanderer ; Herkunftsland ; Hochqualifizierte ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; Lohnhöhe ; Lohnunterschied ; Mangelberufe ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; Arbeitsmigration ; 2016-2020
    Date: 2021–02–12
  9. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Abdurrahman Nazif Catik; Gül Serife Huyugüzel Kisla; Mohamad Husam Helmi; Coskun Akdeniz
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron (2003) tests, and a state-space model with time-varying parameters is then estimated. The main findings can be summarised as follows. Both the sub-samples and the time-varying estimates indicate a greater role for exchange rate returns. Oil prices have a positive and significant impact on the energy sector in all countries except India; a negative and significant one on the financial sector of Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa; no effect on the transportation sector of Brazil, China, and South Africa, a negative one on those of India and Turkey, and a positive one in the case of Russia. The vulnerability of energy-dependent sectors to global fluctuations implies that appropriate energy policies should be adopted to reduce risk.
    Keywords: oil prices, exchange rates, sectoral stock returns, structural breaks, time-varying parameters
    JEL: G12 C50 C58
    Date: 2021

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