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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | To mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this paper aims to assess developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) over the past three decades, and to look forward to what the next 30 years might bring. First, we measure the convergence of per capita income, wages and life expectancy in CESEE with Western Europe since 1989, and examine demographic trends. We find that, after a difficult start, many countries have become significantly wealthier and their populations much healthier. However, for others, the outcomes of the first 30 years are less positive, and a large number of countries in CESEE have already experienced significant population decline. Second, our experts look back at the situation in 1989, and to what extent their expectations have played out, reflecting on both successes and disappointments. Third, we analyse current trends in the region, and attempt to project what will come next. Here, we focus on automation, digitalisation, institutions, demographics and geopolitics. We find evidence of institutional regression, demographic challenges, and a changing geopolitical backdrop that will have important implications for much of the region. However, we also see reasons for optimism, including the opportunities provided by digitalisation and automation, and an active civil society that could in time force positive change. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, transition, convergence, demographics |
| JEL: | E00 E02 F02 J11 P20 P30 O52 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:eopape:4&r= |
| By: | Barinova Vera (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zemtsov Tsepan (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsareva Yulia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The unprecedented scale of the COVID-19 epidemic created harsh environment for operation of small and medium-sized businesses: decline in household incomes and demand, shutdown of foreign markets and uncertainty of the economic situation. The lockdown introduced in April 2020, resulted in temporary suspension of activities of many enterprises providing services: thus, for instance, trade, catering, hotels, repair shops, hairdressers, etc. Activity of small businesses reduced to the values observed during the crisis of 2015. According to our estimates, the crisis affected more than 75% of SMEs, although about 11% of enterprises and 5.5 million employees2 are concentrated in the most affected industries. In March-April 2020, revenues in some industries fell by more than 90%. There was a high likelihood of closing millions of businesses and reducing the number of people employed in the SME sector by several million |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, small businesses, medium-sized enterprises, OVID-19, lockdown |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 I18 I19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1130&r= |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2020, after the sudden financial shock in March caused by sales of risky assets by investors against the backdrop of the rising coronavirus pandemic, stock markets in many countries recovered faster than did the economic indicators. The traditional hypothesis that the value of financial assets depends more strongly on future investor expectations than on past events has been confirmed. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, corporate bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1119&r= |
| By: | Fernanda Ricotta (University of Calabria); Victoria Golikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Boris Kuznetsov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate whether CEO characteristics (owner-manager status, age and gender) influence firm innovative performance and test empirically if the effect differs for market and transition economies. We use cross-sectional data of manufacturing firms in six EU countries and in Russia. To address heterogeneity, we explore innovation performance by size among SMEs and large businesses and by Pavitt sector. In both institutional settings, the presence of a family CEO either has no effect or improves innovative performance. On the contrary, the role of CEO gender is different in Russia and in the EU. In the EU, female CEOs are associated with less innovation, especially in SMEs and in the traditional sector. In Russia, CEO gender is not associated with differences in innovative performance and when it is (for the traditional sector), it favors female-run firms. For CEO age, considering product innovations, the oldest group of CEOs are less active in European firms while mature CEOs are more innovative in Russia. |
| Keywords: | CEO age, gender, manager-owner status, innovation, manufacturing firms |
| JEL: | D21 L60 P50 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:251/ec/2021&r= |
| By: | Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2020, the world economy was faced with a large-scale crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, a worsening situation in the global oil market, increasing global uncertainty, and capital outflows from emerging markets. The crisis phenomena were experienced, to a varying degree, by every sector of the economy and required the implementation of a set of urgent monetary policy measures. The Bank of Russia’s switchover to monetary policy easing became its key decision aimed at sustaining aggregate demand: in 2020, the regulator cut the key rate four times, from 6.25% per annum in February to 4.25% per annum in July, thus sinking it to its historic low. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1117&r= |
| By: | Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Lyashok Viktor (RANEPA); Makarentseva Alla (RANEPA); Maleva Tatiana (RANEPA); Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA); Khasanova Ramilya (RANEPA); Burdyak Alexandra (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The reduction in real disposable cash income was due to the economic difficulties caused by the proliferation of the coronavirus infection The shutdown of a host of organizations in spring 2020 and the decline in consumer demand, in the first place for non-food products and services, reported in Q2-4 2020 (retail sales turnover came to 84.0, 98.4 and 97.2%, respectively of the same period of 2019) resulted in the cut in household incomes. In 2020, the total value of cash incomes of the population went down by 3.0% in real terms against 2019, while the amount of remuneration of wages and salaries of employees decreased by merely 0.9% in real terms. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, households, labor market, social sentiment, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | D14 J01 J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1132&r= |
| By: | Girich Maria (RANEPA); Levashenko Antonina (RANEPA); Valamat-Zade A. (RANEPA); Magomedov Rustam (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Online platforms play a key role in digital economy. They make a significant contribution to increasing productivity and development of innovations, facilitate the easing of foreign economic activity, create environment for social development by supporting new forms of employment, involving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy. The OECD member countries, as well as the Organization’s partner countries (primarily China), strive to create conditions for the development of online platforms and ensure their competitiveness in global markets. Currently, the EU has adopted the most detailed regulation aimed, on the one hand, at creating conditions for developing digital platforms, and on the other, at protecting local consumers of goods and services provided by global digital platforms against misconduct. In order to improve the tools for protecting Russian users of the services provided by global online platforms, it is advisable to carefully analyze the EU experience in protecting the interests of consumers of digital platforms. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, online platforms, digitalization, digital platforms |
| JEL: | O3 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1142&r= |
| By: | Németh-Durkó, Emilia |
| Abstract: | The present study explores the relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and urbanization in Hungary over the period of 1974-2014. We use three-step model for testing stationarity, cointegration and causality in VECM framework. First, we employ ARDL bounds testing methodology to investigate the long run relationship among the series in the presence of structural breaks. Secondly, to overcome the issue of different integrated order of variables, we applied Toda-Yamamoto procedure to test causality. Our results indicate the existence of long run relationships. The impact of electricity consumption and urbanization are positive on carbon emissions and statistically significant in the long run. The empirical results show that bidirectional causality is running from electricity consumption to economic growth. We further found evidence in the case of bidirectional causality between carbon emissions and economic growth. The causality analysis validates conservation hypothesis meaning that electricity consumption, economic growth and urbanization Granger cause carbon emissions. We conclude that increasing electricity consumption is an indicator of economy growth in Hungary therefore economic policy and energy policy interrelating coordination are vital for maintaining sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | energy, economic growth, Granger causality, Toda-Yamamoto approach, energy policy, ARDL, conservation hypothesis |
| JEL: | Q40 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2021/05&r= |
| By: | Kukic, Leonard |
| Abstract: | The existing studies usually find that technical change was very important in constraining the economic growth of the Soviet Union. While these studies have been successful in quantifying the extent of technical change, they have been less successful in quantifying its nature. This paper probes the essence of technical change by analysing its direction and bias. I find that the Soviet Union achieved strong increases in labour efficiency until the 1960s. Although the labour efficiency growth subsequently slowed down, it is capital efficiency that drove the postwar slowdown in economic growth. I argue that labour shortages, combined with an inadequate investment policy, retarded the Soviet capital efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Soviet Union; Economic Growth; Technical Change; Economic History |
| JEL: | O47 O33 N14 P27 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:33259&r= |
| By: | Tomas Adam; Ondrej Michalek; Ales Michl; Eva Slezakova |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Rushin, a weekly index of Czech economic activity. The index is based on alternative, high-frequency indicators and standard, low-frequency macroeconomic data. Various information from the economy is aggregated to extract a signal about real-time dynamics in the real economy. Although the information on the GDP growth rate is not used directly in the construction of the index, the indicator fits GDP data well, particularly in turbulent times such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, it can be used for the real-time monitoring of economic activity, nowcasting and identifying turning points in the economy. The name of the index alludes to the name of Czechoslovakia's first finance minister Alois Rasin and the timeliness (rush-) of the index (-in). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 crisis, economic activity index, high-frequency indicators, nowcasting |
| JEL: | C32 C43 E01 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/4&r= |