nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒09‒06
ten papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The coal phase-out and the labour market transition pathways: the case of Poland By Jan Frankowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Jakub Soko³owski
  2. Asymmetry and hysteresis in the Russian gasoline market: the rationale for green energy exports By Fantazzini, Dean; Kolesnikova, Anna
  3. Is ICT Still Polarising Labour Demand after the Crisis? By David Pichler; Robert Stehrer
  4. A Model-Based Comparison of Macroprudential Tools By Eyno Rots; Barnabas Szekely
  5. Manufacturing and Information Society in Serbia: Current Status and Prospects By Bukvić, Rajko; Petrović, Dragan
  6. Spillover Effects in Firms' Bank Choice By Palma Filep-Mosberger; Attila Lindner; Judit Rariga
  7. Labor supply effects of a universal cash transfer By Jan Gromadzki
  8. The aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration By Małgorzata Walerych
  9. The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the export competitiveness of manufacturing firms in Croatia By Stojcic, Nebojsa
  10. Building a Closer Black Sea: Promoting Trade and Economic Interdependence By Zhelev, Paskal

  1. By: Jan Frankowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Jakub Soko³owski
    Abstract: We study the labour market transition pathways driven by the coal phase-out in Poland between 1990 and 2050. First, we apply the concept of branching points to describe the transformation of coal mining in the context of three labour market trends: structural changes, demographically driven changes in the labour supply, and educational upgrading. We show that in the 1990s and 2000s, the labour market options of the miners who lost their jobs were poor, as the trajectories of all of these trends worsened their labour market prospects. However, as these trends have reversed since the 2010s, it is likely that in the future, the employment effects and the social consequences of the coal phase-out in Poland will be more positive than they were in the past. Second, we find substantial homogeneity in the employment structures of mining subregions and of particular mines, which suggests that regional approaches to managing the transition are possible. Third, our projection of the supply of and the demand for labour up to 2050 indicates that decarbonisation will lead to a surplus of Polish hard coal mining workers by 2030. However, the projected shortages of workers in other industrial sectors will create opportunities for worker reallocation that should be facilitated by policy measures.
    Keywords: coal transition, mining, labour market
    JEL: L71 J21 Q43 J65
    Date: 2020–06
  2. By: Fantazzini, Dean; Kolesnikova, Anna
    Abstract: Using monthly data of 79 Russian regions from 2003 to 2017, we study the long-run relationship of the retail gasoline prices with the crude oil price and the nominal exchange rate. We find that models that were successfully applied to deal with asymmetries in other countries are not suitable for Russia without taking structural breaks into account. Once breaks are allowed, we find that there is no asymmetry in the long-run elasticities between the gasoline prices and the crude oil price, and no significant hysteresis. However, there is an asymmetric relation between the gasoline price and the exchange rate that has decreased over time. These results also hold after several robustness checks. The evidence reported in this work shows that the effects of the exchange rate on gasoline prices are much more difficult to control than the oil price, and they require a larger set of policy measures: the recent development of a plan to decrease the importance of hydrocarbons exports by producing clean hydrogen using electrolysis and pyrolysis and the potential future export of electricity generated using nuclear power and onshore wind farms may help to diversify the local economy and to shield it from new sanctions.
    Keywords: Gasoline market; Russia; Asymmetric cointegration; Panel cointegration; Hysteresis; Structural breaks
    JEL: C32 C33 C54 L71 Q28 Q38 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2021
  3. By: David Pichler; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The impact of ICT capital accumulation and digitisation on labour demand and wage structures has changed in recent years, according to some of the literature on the subject. We analyse the impact of ICT capital accumulation based on recent data differentiating between the period before and after the global financial crisis. Methodologically, we draw on Michaels, Natraj and van Reenen (2014) and are able to corroborate their findings for the period 1980-2004, whereas we find distinctly different patterns since 2011. Results suggest a negative relationship between changes in ICT intensity and the wage share for high-skilled workers, whereas medium-skilled workers were the main beneficiaries in sectors that experienced a more intensive digitisation process. These results are chiefly driven by the dynamics in the Central and Eastern European economies and the service industries. The effect of digitisation on low-skilled workers does not reveal any robust significant impact.
    Keywords: ICT capital, skill polarisation, wage patterns
    JEL: J31 O33
    Date: 2021–09
  4. By: Eyno Rots (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Barnabas Szekely (Goethe University)
    Abstract: We develop a DSGE model to analyze a macroprudential policy framework. We use it to describe the Hungarian economy and the key regulatory constraints implemented there: the loan-to-value and the debt-service-to-income caps imposed on mortgage borrowers and the minimum capital requirement imposed on banks. Our model is novel in the way it treats the borrowing caps as soft constraints, which makes it easy to analyze multiple non-redundant borrowing constraints. We also show an estimation strategy that involves a variation of impulse-response matching and accounts for the lack of historical data concerning the conduct of macroprudential policy, a common problem.
    Keywords: DSGE, macroprudential, DSTI, LTV, capital requirement, Covid†19.
    JEL: E37 E44
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Bukvić, Rajko; Petrović, Dragan
    Abstract: In modern science it is generally accepted that ICT (information and communication technologies) are important drivers, which ‘enables’ technologies that have a broad impact on many sectors of the economy and social life. In this framework, the measuring the level of ICT development, their economic and social impact, and the country’s readiness to use them must be of great importance, especially for the estimation of the building of the information society. In the first part of the paper some indicators of the use of ICT technologies in Serbia are presented. Further, we present some data of the ICT sector of Serbian economy (number of employees, share in the GDP, foreign trade and foreign direct investments, as well the number of companies). At the end we present the results of a research (Goloventchik and Zhyrkevich), in which the composite index of the digital transformation was constructed on the basis of nine broad used indicators. In the conclusion we emphasize that the building of information society in Serbia is not yet on the satisfactory level.
    Keywords: digital economy, information and communication technologies, small European economies, Serbia, households, manufacturing
    JEL: D80 O11 O31 O52 O57
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Palma Filep-Mosberger (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Attila Lindner (University College London, MTA KTI); Judit Rariga (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: In this paper, we study firm-bank relationship formation. Combining domestic inter-firm network data from value-added tax declarations and credit registry for Hungary, we estimate the spillover effects in bank choice, identifying from variation on the bank level. Having at least one peer in the network who has an existing loan with a bank increases the probability that the firm will borrow a new loan from the same bank. We provide suggestive evidence that the estimated spillover effect is due to firm-to-firm information transmission about banks. According to our results, firms can learn about banking practices from their peers but they also point to financial stability concerns in the event of shocks to domestic supply chains.
    Keywords: bank choice, firm network, spillover effects.
    JEL: G30 L14 D22
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Jan Gromadzki
    Abstract: Unconditional cash transfers in the form of a universal basic income, a universal basic pension or a universal child benefit are increasingly being discussed in many countries. In this article, I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of a large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the pure income effect of the monthly transfer. I find very small labor supply effects on both the intensive and extensive margin. Additional evidence shows that instead of extending their free time, households receiving the benefit substantially increased their consumption and savings.
    Keywords: coal transition, mining, labour market
    JEL: J21 J65 L71 Q43
    Date: 2021–08
  8. By: Małgorzata Walerych
    Abstract: The 2004 EU enlargement has triggered large and rapid migration movements from the new to the old member states. The scale of this outflow was unprecedented in the CEE history and its structure was also different from previous emigration waves as it was more heavily biased towards young and educated people. I exploit this post-accession emigration wave to study the aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous migration choice calibrated to Polish data, I show that emigration lowers output per capita and improves the international investment position of the source country. Changes in population structure resulting from population outflows affect the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers, thereby increasing economic inequalities. Moreover, I find that lifting labour mobility barriers is beneficial not only for people who move abroad, but also for skilled never-migrants.
    Keywords: migration, sending country, heterogenous agents, EU accession
    JEL: F22 J61 D31 D58
    Date: 2021–05
  9. By: Stojcic, Nebojsa
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on changes in export competitiveness of firms from Croatian manufacturing industry. The analysis is based on the data about firm behaviour in period following first wave of Covid-19 pandemic. The data was collected by World Bank during August and September 2020 and publicly released in early October 2020. The results of investigation reveal that probability of decreasing export revenues falls among firms that solved their liquidity problems through equity financing, deferred payments to workers and suppliers and with the support of public grants. Statistically significant evidence of the tax exemptions, wage subsidies and commercial banks’ loans was not found. Companies with higher level of robustness to external shocks have lower probability of decreasing export revenues. The impact of introduction or implementation of online sales on export revenues is negative. Results of investigation may serve for formulation of economic policies in similar future cases.
    Keywords: Covid-19; manufacturing; Croatia; export
    JEL: F10 H84 I12 I15 L60
    Date: 2020–11
  10. By: Zhelev, Paskal
    Abstract: While the Black Sea has historically been an area of significant geostrategic importance, this has not made it a vibrant zone of commerce, transport, energy, tourism, or cultural exchange. Rather, it has become a theatre of struggle for dominance and competing geopolitical and geo-economic interests. This situation has been exacerbated by conflict between Russia and countries in the region, like Ukraine and Georgia, that have sought closer ties with the West and aspire to NATO membership and EU integration. These developments have dire consequences for regional security and stability, disrupting political and economic ties in the area and beyond. A long-term solution to the region’s security issues could be based on intensifying trade relations and increasing economic interdependence between the states. This paper identifies major barriers to closer regional trade and economic cooperation and outlines ways to overcome them.
    Keywords: Black Sea region, regional integration, sub-regionalism, foreign trade
    JEL: F13 F15 F50 F51
    Date: 2021–03

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