nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒08‒09
fourteen papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Employment Mobility of FDI Workers in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys By Nguyen, Cuong Viet
  2. Increased trade with China and Eastern Europe hardly affects Dutch workers By Rob Euwals; Harro van Heuvelen; Gerdien Meijerink; Jan Möhlmann; Simon Rabaté
  3. Transition finance: Investigating the state of play: A stocktake of emerging approaches and financial instruments By Aayush Tandon
  4. Freelance platform work in the Russian Federation 2009-2019 By Shevchuk, Andrey.; Strebkov, Denis.
  5. The Effects of SPSs and TBTs on Innovation: Evidence from Exporting Firms in Viet Nam By Duc Anh Dang; Vuong Anh Dang
  6. Money Creation in Russia: Does the Money Multiplier Exist? By Vadim O. Grishchenko; Alexander Mihailov; Vasily N. Tkachev
  7. Spillovers among Energy Commodities and the Russian Stock Market By Costola, Michele; Lorusso, Marco
  8. Increasing Block Rate Electricity Pricing and Propensity to Purchase Electric Appliances: Evidence from a Natural Experiment By Salim Turdaliev
  9. Estimating labour market transitions from labour force surveys the case of Viet Nam By Samaniego, Brenda.; Viegelahn, Christian,
  10. The Long-Term Effect of FIFA World Cup on Gender Gap in Education and Employment: Evidence from Vietnam By Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Tran, Anh Ngoc
  11. Growing More Rice with Less Water: The System of Rice Intensification and Rice Productivity in Vietnam By Guven, Cahit; Tong, Lan; Ulubasoglu, Mehmet
  12. Perception of Bribery, an Anti-Corruption Campaign, and Health Service Utilization in Vietnam By Yamada, Hiroyuki; Vu, Tien Manh
  13. Evaluating the 500+ child support program in Poland By Filip Premik
  14. Long-term Consequences of Civil War in Tajikistan: Schooling and International Migration Outcomes By Satoshi Shimizutani; Eiji Yamada

  1. By: Nguyen, Cuong Viet
    Abstract: In this study, we examine characteristics of employment in FDI in Vietnam. Workers from FDI account for 5.6% of working people. Female and younger people are more likely to work the FDI sector. Compared with private and public sectors, the FDI sector has a lower share of workers who have tertiary education. The FDI sector has a high proportion of workers with social insurance, at 95%. However, there is a relatively large proportion of the FDI workers receiving daily wages and piece payment. The FDI workers have a high number of working hours and more likely to have overtime working hours. The FDI workers have lower wages per hour than those in the private and public sector. However, once observed characteristics of workers are controlled for, the FDI workers have higher hourly and monthly wages than the private as well as public workers. The proportion of FDI workers who moved out of the FDI sector was 11% over a three-month period and 31% over a two-year period. Older workers are more likely to move out of the FDI sector than young ones. There is no evidence that workers move out of the FDI sector after age 35.
    Keywords: FDI,employment,labor,Vietnam
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Rob Euwals (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Harro van Heuvelen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Gerdien Meijerink (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Jan Möhlmann (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Simon Rabaté (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: Contrary to other studies, we find no robust effect of an increase in trade with China and Central European (CEE) countries on local employment, wages and inequality in the Netherlands. If there is an effect, it is small, with positive effects of increased exports counteracting the negative effects of increased imports. One of the reasons why we find different results for the Netherlands is the fact that the Dutch manufacturing industry was already undergoing changes well before the emergence of China and the CEE countries and became less sensitive to import competition from China or the CEE countries. In addition, the Netherlands has collective wage negotiations, which may help to explain that we do not find any effects on wages. While the effect of increased trade with China and the CEE countries on manufacturing jobs is limited, it can create uncertainty for workers. The negative effect of import competition and the positive impact of export opportunities on manufacturing jobs also point to adjustments across industries and regions. Transitioning workers to new types of work can be difficult for these workers, as they are (temporarily) unemployed and may need to move to other regions.
    JEL: F16 J31 R11
    Date: 2021–07
  3. By: Aayush Tandon
    Abstract: With only a decade left to reduce emissions drastically, the scale, pace and extent of global transformation needed is truly demanding. Long-term emission goals and the nature of the low-emission transition in each country will be a function of its unique socio-economic priorities, capabilities, resource endowment, vision for post 2050 economic structure, and social and political acceptability of what constitutes a just transition. As we enter the “decade for delivery”, a whole of economy approach is needed to realise the low-emission transition. This includes focusing not only on upscaling zero and near-zero emitting technologies and businesses but also supporting, to the extent possible, the progressive lowering of emissions in high emitting and hard to abate sectors. In this context, “transition finance” is gaining traction among governments and market participants. To identify the core features of transition finance, this paper reviews 12 transition relevant taxonomies, guidance and principles by public (Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Russia, European Union, EBRD) and private actors (Climate Bonds Initiative, International Capital Markets Association, Research Institute for Environmental Finance Japan, AXA Investment Managers and DBS), as well as 39 transition relevant financial instruments (vanilla transition bonds, key performance indicator-linked fixed income securities). This paper does not aim to define transition finance, but rather to review emerging approaches and instruments to highlight commonalities, divergences as well as issues to consider for coherent market development and progress towards global environmental objectives. Based on the review, this paper puts forth two preliminary views. First, that the essence of transition finance is triggering entity-wide change to reduce exposure to transition risk; second, that transition finance may be better understood as capital market instruments with a set of core functions/attributes rather than a specific format or label.
    Keywords: finance, low-carbon transition, sustainable debt, taxonomy, transition risk
    JEL: D5 E4 Q01
    Date: 2021–08–05
  4. By: Shevchuk, Andrey.; Strebkov, Denis.
    Abstract: This paper traces the development of freelance platform work in the Russian Federation based on unique data from four online surveys conducted over the period 2009 and 2019 via the leading platform for creative and knowledge- based work and analyses the working conditions and well-being of the workers.
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Duc Anh Dang (National Centre for Socioeconomic Information and Forecast, Viet Nam); Vuong Anh Dang (National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling University of Canberra, Australia)
    Abstract: Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in destination markets may affect firms’ performance. In this paper, we examine how meeting foreign standards affects exporting firms’ innovation, reflected in the product quality, production processes, skills, and technological acquisition. The analysis relies on official regulations on non-tariff measures released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and panel data for manufacturing firms in Viet Nam during 2013–2015. To correct for the potential endogeneity of SPS measures and TBTs and measurement errors, we use the number of SPS measures and TBTs imposed on other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States as an instrument variable. Our results indicate that a higher number of SPS measures and TBTs applied by destination countries increases the probability of Vietnamese exporting firms’ skill acquisition. SPS measures also have higher positive impacts on product quality improvement and skill acquisition in the food processing sector. The SPS measures and TBTs have larger impacts on small firms than large firms. Foreign firms tend to acquire more technology and skills than domestic firms when facing SPS measures and TBTs by importing countries. Higher SPS measures and TBTs have more effects on the probability of acquiring skills by state-owned firms. However, the propensity of product quality and technological acquisition of non-state firms is much higher than that of state-owned firms when facing a greater level of SPS measures and TBTs.
    Keywords: trade, non-tariff measures, innovation
    JEL: F14 O33
    Date: 2021–06–22
  6. By: Vadim O. Grishchenko (Research and Forecasting Department, Bank of Russia); Alexander Mihailov (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Vasily N. Tkachev (International Finance Department, Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO- University))
    Abstract: For decades, the monetary economics literature has considered multiple deposit expansion via the money multiplier logic as empirically corroborated. However, the developments witnessed in advanced economies since the Global Financial Crisis challenged this settled view, and central banks as well as the Bank for International Settlements were among the first to openly reconsider it. In this paper, we revisit the issue empirically, but in a way aligned with a 'narrative' context of the evolving institutional frameworks for banking activities and monetary policy that profoundly and ultimately shape it out. Using a vector autoregression model estimated on Russian monthly data over two subsamples, 2005-2012 and 2012-2019, we find robust evidence that, while multiple deposit expansion may have existed in underdeveloped financial systems in the past, where the volume of lending was limited by the supply of bank reserves, nowadays lending is constrained mainly by the demand for credit. The key explanations we propose are: the rapid rise of money markets in the 20th- 21st centuries, the unlimited access to central bank liquidity provision facilities, and the evolution of bank management from the 'golden rule' of banking, where liquidity gaps aim at zero, to Asset and Liability Management, where banks flexibly manage liquidity gaps. Our results robustly show that the influence on real money balances of money supply factors, such as bank reserve requirements and the real monetary base, has become statistically insignificant over the recent decade in Russia, while that of money demand factors, such as the nominal interest rate, has remained significant and negative, which is consistent with the economic intuition we have suggested.
    Keywords: multiple deposit expansion, money multiplier, supply of bank reserves, demand for credit, evolution of bank management, monetary policy, Russia
    JEL: E41 E42 E44 E51 E58 G21
    Date: 2021–08–03
  7. By: Costola, Michele; Lorusso, Marco
    Abstract: We examine the connectedness in the energy commodities sector and the Russian stock market over the period 2005-2020 using the variance decomposition approach. Our analysis identifies the booms and busts in the correspondence of political and war episodes that are related to spillover effects in the Russian economy, as well as the energy commodities markets. Our findings show that the Russian Oil & Gas and Metals & Mining sectors are net shock contributors of crude oil and have the highest spillovers to other Russian sectors. Furthermore, we disentangle the sources of spillovers that originated from the financial and energy commodity markets and find that a positive change in the energy commodity volatility spillover is associated with an increase in Russian geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, we show that the spread of COVID-19 increases the stock market volatility spillover, whereas it lowers the energy commodity volatility spillover.
    Keywords: Spillover Effects, Russian Stock Market, Russian Sectoral Indices, Commodity Markets, International Financial Markets
    JEL: C3 C58 E44 G1
    Date: 2021–07–31
  8. By: Salim Turdaliev (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between increasing-block-rate (IBR) pricing of electricity and the propensity of households to buy major electric appliances. I use variation from a natural experiment in Russia that introduced IBR pricing for residential electricity in a number of experimental regions in 2013. The study employs household-level panel data which records, among others, whether the household has purchased any major electric appliances during the last 3 months. Using difference-in-differences specification I show that in the regions with IBR pricing the purchase of major electric appliances has increased by more than 25 percent (2 percentage points). The findings suggest that price-based energy policies may be an effective tool in shaping the behavior of households.
    Keywords: appliances, increasing-block-rate tariff, electricity prices, energy efficiency gap
    JEL: Q3 Q4 D1 D9
    Date: 2021–07
  9. By: Samaniego, Brenda.; Viegelahn, Christian,
    Abstract: Labour market transitions that workers experience throughout their working life play an important role in current policy discussions surrounding the future of work. Transitions occur between employment, unemployment and inactivity, but also between formality and informality, as well as between different occupations or industries. This paper discusses methodologies that are available from the literature to estimate the incidence and frequency of transitions using data from labour force surveys, which are run as a rotating panel. The paper then applies these methodologies to Viet Nam in 2011-19, producing estimates of different types of labour market transitions. Without aiming to be comprehensive, this paper provides some examples of what type of data can be produced, demonstrating the feasibility and value of transitions data for labour market analysis.
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Tran, Anh Ngoc
    Abstract: The FIFA Soccer World Cups often happen within one month just before the national entrance exam to universities and colleges in Vietnam. Watching soccer matches can distract male students from their studies and reduce their probability to pass the exam. We find that Vietnamese men who had the university entrance exam during the FIFA Soccer World Cups tend to have a lower proportion of having a bachelor's degree. Exposure to World Cups also reduces the probability of having a formal job, a high-skilled job and management position for men. Using the exposure to World Cups as a natural shock for tertiary education, we find a large and positive effect of tertiary education on employment. It confirms the important role of education in reducing gender gap in employment.
    Keywords: Return to education,employment,gender gap,World Cup,Vietnam
    JEL: J16 J21 I25
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Guven, Cahit; Tong, Lan; Ulubasoglu, Mehmet
    Abstract: We study the effects of a large-scale System of Rice Intensification (SRI) program on the water productivity of rice in Vietnam by exploiting the provincial and time variations in SRI uptake and irrigation water supply over the period 2000–2012. Our findings document that the world’s second-largest rice exporter could produce four million tons of more rice with same water supply in the reasonably achievable case of 20% SRI uptake across its provinces. In addition, we find that SRI increases the output of other crops too, due at least partly to its possible water savings and soil nutrition preservation in rice production. Moreover, we show that SRI is more likely to be adopted in provinces with stronger quality of provincial institutions and weaker agricultural capital base. Numerous selectivity and randomization tests affirm that the water productivity effect of SRI is robust to selection in SRI uptake at province and district levels and addressing potential unobservables and omitted variables problems.
    Keywords: Agricultural Technology; SRI; Impact Evaluation; Water Productivity
    JEL: O13 O33 Q18 Q25
    Date: 2021–07–01
  12. By: Yamada, Hiroyuki; Vu, Tien Manh
    Abstract: Although various theoretical predictions have been made, empirical evidence on the impact of bribery remains limited, especially in the health sector. This study explores how the perception of bribery is associated with health service utilization in Vietnam by using provincial panel data during 2012–2018. We found that a higher perception of bribery is associated with fewer inpatient days, suggesting that bribery potentially influences the deterioration of welfare services. However, no such effect on the number of consultations at health facilities and the number of inpatients was detected. In addition, we found that a strong general anti-corruption campaign would offset the negative effects of bribery on the number of inpatient days.
    Keywords: bribery, health service utilization, anti-corruption campaign, Vietnam
    JEL: I12 I18 I19
    Date: 2021–07–20
  13. By: Filip Premik (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE))
    Abstract: We investigate immediate effects of a large scale child benefit program introduction on labor supply of the household members in Poland. Due to nonrandom eligibility and universal character of the program standard evaluation estimators are likely to be inconsistent. In order to address this issues we propose a novel approach which combines difference-in-difference (DID) propensity score based methods with covariate balancing propensity score (CBPS) by Imai and Ratkovic (2014). The DID part solves potential problems with non-parallel outcome dynamics in treated and non-treated subpopulations resulting from non-experimental character of the data, whereas CBPS is expected to reduce significantly bias from the systematic differences between treated and untreated subpopulations. We account also for potential heterogeneity among households by estimating a range of local average treatment effects which jointly provide a reliable view on the overall impact. We found that the program has a minor impact on the labor supply in periods following its introduction. There is an evidence for a small encouraging effect on hours worked by treated mothers of children at school age, both sole and married. Additionally, the program may influence the intra-household division of duties among parents of the youngest children as suggested by simultaneous slight decline in participating mothers' probability of working and a small increase in treated fathers' hours worked
    Keywords: child benefits, labor supply, program evaluation, difference-in-difference estimation, covariate balancing propensity score
    JEL: C21 C23 I38 J22
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Satoshi Shimizutani (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development); Eiji Yamada (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development)
    Abstract: This study utilizes variations in exposure to the armed conflict to examine the long-term consequences of civil war in Tajikistan on a variety of outcomes twenty years after the end of the civil war. We confirm a negative and significant effect on completing basic education for girls exposed to the war during their school ages while other girls were able to attain higher education levels than previously. Moreover, we see adverse effects on employment status for males exposed to armed conflicts in their primary school ages and long-term effects in international migration status for those males.
    Keywords: Tajikistan, Civil war, Long-term consequences, Schooling, International migration
    JEL: D1 I2 O1
    Date: 2021–07–14

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