nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒06‒14
seventeen papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. The Evolution of The Agri-Food Sector in Terms of Economic Transformation, Membership in The EU and Globalization of The World Economy By Szajner, Piotr; Szczepaniak, Iwona
  2. Transnational experience and high-performing entrepreneurs in emerging economies: evidence from Vietnam By Klingler-Vidra, Robyn; Tran, Ba Linh; Chalmers, Adam William
  3. The Asymmetric Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Net Average Wages of Southeastern European Countries By Kurtović, Safet; Maxhuni, Nehat; Halili, Blerim; Krasniqi, Bujar
  4. Competitiveness of Polish Agriculture in The Context of Globalization and Economic Integration – Competitive Potential and Position By Pawlak, Karolina; Poczta, Walenty
  5. Marketplace Trade in Poland. State in 2008-2018 and Prospects By Świetlik, Krystyna
  6. Misalignments in house prices and economic growth in Europe By Juan Carlos Cuestas; Merike Kukk; Natalia Levenko
  7. Productivity of Production Factors in Polish Agriculture and in The Selected European Union Countries with Regard to The Common Agricultural Policy Payments By Ściubeł, Anna
  8. Problems and Prospects of Organic Production in Family Farming in Ukraine By Zolotnytska, Yuliia; Opalov, Oleksandr
  9. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Economies: An Application to Vietnam By Le Ha Thu; Roberto Leon-Gonzalez
  10. How has the Self-Perceived Health Shaped the COVID-19 Causalities in the Visegrad Countries? By Niftiyev, Ibrahim; Huseynova, Rena
  11. Selected Determinants of Innovation Potential in The Agricultural Sector in The Visegrad Countries By Będzik, Beata; Gołąb, Sylwia
  12. The Effect of Involuntary Retirement on Healthcare Use and Health Status By Anikó Bíró; Réka Branyiczki; Péter Elek
  13. Do Cognitive Biases Impact M&A Performance in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Russian Firms By Irina Skvortsova; Anna Vershinina
  14. Does a financial crisis change a bank's exposure to risk? A difference-in-differences approach By Mäkinen, Mikko
  15. Income Inequality as Long-term Conditioning Factor of Monetary Transmission to Bank Interest Rates in EA Countries By Tomas Domonkos; Boris Fisera; Maria Siranova
  16. Developing a national water security indicators framework in Kazakhstan By Dauren Oshakbaev; Zhanna Akisheva; Alexandre Martoussevitch
  17. How to Conceptualize the Resource Curse and Dutch Disease Theories in the Case of Azerbaijan? Initial and Negative Findings By Niftiyev, Ibrahim

  1. By: Szajner, Piotr; Szczepaniak, Iwona
    Abstract: The aim of the article is to contribute to the discussion and research devoted to the evolution of the agri-food sector in the period of systemic transformation, Poland’s membership in the European Union, and globalization of the world economy. The evolution of the Polish agri-food sector, which started in the first years of systemic transformation, intensified in the period of preparations for accession to the European Union (EU), and then stimulated by the processes of deepening economic and trade integration with the EU Member States and the global market, proves that this sector has undergone profound transformations. After joining the EU, the Polish food economy was co-financed with EU funds, which allowed for the acceleration of structural and modernization changes in the sector. Foreign direct investments also played a significant role in the process of strengthening the position of the Polish agri-food sector. However, the key factor in the sector’s development was the dynamic growth of agri-food exports, accompanied by the growing demand for food in the internal market. Due to changes in macroeconomic and market conditions, entities of the domestic agri-food sector will have to face new challenges in the future.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Klingler-Vidra, Robyn; Tran, Ba Linh; Chalmers, Adam William
    Abstract: Do high-performing entrepreneurs in the technology sector in emerging economies have more, or different, transnational experience than the founders of high-performing non-technology businesses? Employing Vietnam as a case study, we find that they do; the founders of high-performing technology-oriented businesses are 15 times more likely to have transnational experience in the U.S. compared to their non-technology peers, and are 35 times more likely to be graduates of American universities compared to founders of high-performing, non-technology-oriented business. The founders of high-performing non-technology businesses are more ‘place-based’, as they have predominantly lived and studied in Vietnam. Our data and methods are comprised of a logistic regression analysis of the biographical details of Vietnam's 143 highest-performing entrepreneurs; the founders of the 76 Vietnam's (non-technology-based) companies with the highest market capitalizations and the 67 founders of Vietnam's highest performing technology-oriented companies, in terms of private equity fundraising, as of April 2020. The paper's theoretical contribution is the advance it makes in analytical explanations of why technology-based entrepreneurs have more transnational experience, especially in the U.S., than high-performing founders of businesses in other sectors; this helps extend theory on the relationship between social and human capital and entrepreneurial performance, specifically in the technology sector.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; innovation; returnees; social capital; transnational experience; Vietnam; Impact Acceleration Account research grant
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–08–01
  3. By: Kurtović, Safet; Maxhuni, Nehat; Halili, Blerim; Krasniqi, Bujar
    Abstract: There is a widespread belief in transition and growing economies that the relationship between FDI and wages is symmetrical. On the other hand, the problem of the nonlinear impact of FDI on wages has remained insufficiently explored. Therefore, this paper aims to determine whether there is an asymmetric effect of FDI stock on the net average wages within the eight SEE (Southeastern European countries) economies. We used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and as well on the annual data for the period from 2000 to 2018. We found that there is an asymmetric impact of FDI stock on the net average wages of Bulgaria and Slovenia. In addition, we found that the symmetric effect is stronger compared to the asymmetric effect that the FDI stock has on the net average wages of Bulgaria, N. Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. Finally, we found that productivity, employment and education significantly affect solely Slovenia's net average wages.
    Keywords: symmetry, asymmetry, wages, productivity, employment
    JEL: F21 F23 J3
    Date: 2021–03–12
  4. By: Pawlak, Karolina; Poczta, Walenty
    Abstract: The aim of the research presented in this paper is to assess the competitive potential of Polish agriculture (potential competitiveness) and the competitive position of the Polish agri-food sector on the Single European Market (SEM) with reference to the global context. The conducted research has proven that Polish agriculture, while having significant production potential (potential competitiveness) on a European scale, is at the same time characterized by the significant structural deficiencies of this potential, which may adversely affect he competitive position of Polish agriculture in the future. Poland’s inclusion in the SEM area and the adoption of the rules of the Common Commercial Policy resulted in the creation and diversion of trade in agri-food products, and the comparative advantages achieved on the SEM became a source of favorable export specialization, allowing for relatively good use of the currently existing potential of agriculture and the food industry. This has resulted in the relatively good competitive position of the Polish agri-food sector on the SEM. However, in the long term, the ability to maintain or improve competitiveness in the future will be determined by competitive potential. The Polish agri-food sector has significant potential to increase exports and strengthen its competitive position (also on non-EU markets), provided that strong foundations for the sector are built, including an improvement in competitive potential.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Świetlik, Krystyna
    Abstract: In Poland, marketplace trade has a long tradition. There are interesting trends in its development. This form of trade was intensified substantially in the first years of the systemic transformation. A significant increase in the number of marketplaces was also observed in 2000-2008. However, the role of the marketplace in the retail trade sector has declined since 2008. The aim of this paper is to illustrate changes in trading at street markets in2008-2018, identify the main factors influencing their development and pinpoint those which will be significant in future. The sources include secondary data of the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) from the Local Data Bank (BDL), internal market statistics, direct research results, reports from various analytical institutions and agencies and available literature. The analysis of the data showed that the number of street markets in Poland declined by 1240 during 2008-2018, including 105 permanent markets and 1135 seasonal ones. The main reason for this change was the growth of discount stores and changes in customer preferences. Government programmes aimed at revitalising street markets and legal regulations facilitating the direct sale of food produced by farmers have not reversed this trend. The observed significant increase in consumer interest in unprocessed food which is safe for human health, which might be linked to the coronavirus pandemic, could result in a revival of street markets.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas (Department of Economics and Finance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia; IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Merike Kukk (Department of Economics and Finance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia); Natalia Levenko (Department of Economics and Finance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate house price misalignments and how they affect the real economy. We estimate the long-term relationship between house prices and the fundamentals that determine long-term house prices for a panel of European countries with dynamic OLS, using data from 2005-2018. We find that income has been the main driver of fundamental house prices in all countries, while the supply of dwellings has calmed the rise in house prices in some of them. We calculate house price misalignments, which are deviations of house prices from the fundamental value, and we employ them in the growth model. The results of the growth regression indicate that house price imbalances amplify business cycles in the short term, but in the long term house price overvaluations slow economic growth down. The findings imply that it is crucial to take measures to stabilise housing cycles.
    Keywords: housing markets, fundamental house price, misalignments, imbalances, overvaluation, economic growth
    JEL: E21 E44 R21 R31 G01
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Ściubeł, Anna
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to analyze the productivity of production factors of Polish and selected EU farms from 2004 to 2017, taking into account the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments, based on the literature. In the postaccession period, there was a marked increase in the efficiency of production factors on Polish farms. The average land, labor, and capital productivity indices from 2004 to 2017 were EUR 442.89/ha, EUR 4,774.35/AWU, and EUR 0.25/ EUR 1, respectively. In 2014, land productivity increased to EUR 1,591.3/ha and labor productivity to EUR 11,800/AWU, amounting to 68.8% and 28.6% of the EU-28 average, respectively, while capital productivity was higher (EUR 1.41/EUR 1) compared to the EU-28 average (EUR 1.29/EUR 1). The share of CAP payments in the income of the Polish farms in 2014 increased to 49.5%; however, this was still below the EU-28 average (61.1%). Regardless of the fact that the total factor productivity (TFP) remains lower in comparison to other EU countries, the increased efficiency of Polish farms in the post-accession period should be considered as significant.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Zolotnytska, Yuliia; Opalov, Oleksandr
    Abstract: The article reveals the problems of organic farming in Ukraine. The study showed that small producers, such as family farms, have the ability to produce organic products in accordance with the appropriate requirements. A SWOT analysis of the process of organic farming by a private peasant household was conducted as well as the main opportunities and threats, strengths and weaknesses of its functioning and development were identified. The strategy of development of the Ukrainian organic agriculture of family farms has been chosen. It will give the chance to pursue it further by means of strategic directions, such as: tax incentives for producers of organic products, implementation of the state program for sustainable development of rural areas, “green” tourism and rural cooperation, elimination of political levers of influence on the implementation of state agricultural policy, as well as implementation of the state program to support the development of advisory services in the field of organic production.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Le Ha Thu (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Roberto Leon-Gonzalez (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: Forecasting macroeconomic variables in the rapidly changing macroeconomic envi- ronments faced by developing and emerging countries is an important task for central banks and policy-makers, yet often presents a number of challenges. In addition to the structural changes in the economy, the time-series data are usually available only for a small number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, and compares its forecast- ing performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. Some results are noteworthy. First, the number and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. Second, DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both the inflation and the economic growth rate of Vietnam.
    Keywords: Bayesian, dynamic model averaging, forecasting macroeconomic variables, Vietnam
    Date: 2021–06
  10. By: Niftiyev, Ibrahim; Huseynova, Rena
    Abstract: Similar to many countries around the world, Visegrad countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary) have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic after the second half of 2020. The outbreak was handled with both success and challenges, experiencing severe declines in economic activities. Despite a complex set of factors determining how the countries handled the pandemic in the hospitals, having a look for the period before the pandemic to analyze what were the change patterns among the citizens concerning the healthcare system poses an interesting analytical way to compare with the COVID-19 trends. By utilizing the Eurostat data on the self-perceiving health conditions, the graphical analysis of this paper suggests that Visegrad countries shared similar trends and dynamics in COVID-19 infection causalities, and also pre-pandemic health situations. Furthermore, the results of the calculated linear and exponential slopes of the infected and death cases identified that the countries with higher averages of self-perceived states have less steep functional reflections.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Visegrad countries,self-perceived health
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Będzik, Beata; Gołąb, Sylwia
    Abstract: Innovation is one of key factors for the socio-economic development highlighted by researchers. While the literature of the subject is full of studies on innovation, reports and analyses usually concern the enterprise sector. This publication presents a comparison between the innovation potential in the Visegrad countries with particular focus on the agricultural sector in terms of social capital. For the purpose of analysis, the OECD, ESS and EUROSTAT databases were used. The results of analyses confirmed a positive relationship between trust and innovation activity with regard to the whole economy and to the agricultural sector. Therefore, the results of the studies point to possibilities of innovationoriented measures aimed at building social capital, especially as Poland records the lowest levels of trust in the Visegrad Group.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Anikó Bíró (Health and Population Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4.); Réka Branyiczki (Central European University and TÁRKI); Péter Elek (Health and Population Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4. and Institute of Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest)
    Abstract: We analyse the causal effect of involuntary retirement on detailed indicators of healthcare use and health status. Our identification strategy is based on a pension reform in Hungary which forced public sector workers above the statutory retirement age to full time retirement. Using rich administrative data, we find that on the three-year horizon, involuntary retirement decreases the number of primary care doctor visits, the consumption of antiinfectives for systemic use and drugs of the respiratory system, and the non-zero spending on antiinfectives, the drugs of the alimentary tract and metabolism and of the cardiovascular system. We also find that the impact on the latter two drug categories is driven by the drop in income due to involuntary retirement. The effects of involuntary retirement are comparable to the short-run effects of voluntary retirement, identified from a change in the statutory retirement age. We conclude that there is little evidence for health deteriorating effects of involuntary retirement and provide explanations for the possible mechanisms behind our results.
    Keywords: healthcare use, involuntary retirement, voluntary retirement
    JEL: I10 J26
    Date: 2021–05
  13. By: Irina Skvortsova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna Vershinina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate cognitive biases as a potential reason for the varied results of M&A in emerging capital markets. We focus on two cognitive biases, CEO overconfidence and availability bias, which significantly influence CEO behavior, encouraging them to be irrational in M&A deals. Based on 237 M&A deals closed by Russian firms during the period 2005–2019 we empirically prove that CEO overconfidence destroys value, and availability bias creates value in M&A deals in the Russian market. We show that due to the low level of corporate governance in emerging capital markets, all corporate governance mechanisms can mitigate CEO irrationalities in M&A.
    Keywords: M&A performance, emerging capital markets, cognitive biases, CEO overconfidence, availability bias.
    JEL: G34 G41
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Mäkinen, Mikko
    Abstract: Can a major financial crisis trigger changes in a bank’s risk-taking behavior? Using the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences approach, I examine whether the worst crisis-hit Russian banks – the banks that have strong incentives to behavior-altering changes – can decrease their post-crisis exposure to risk. A shift in risk-taking behavior by these banks indicates the learning hypothesis. The findings are mixed. The evidence concerning credit risk is inconsistent with the learning hypothesis. On the other hand, the evidence concerning solvency risk is consistent with the learning hypothesis and corroborates evidence from the Nordic countries (Berglund and Mäkinen, 2019). As such, bank learning from a financial crisis may not depend on the institutional context and the level of development of national financial market. Several robustness checks with alternative regression specifications are provided.
    JEL: G01 G21 G32
    Date: 2021–05–28
  15. By: Tomas Domonkos (Slovak Academy of Sciences & Comenius University in Bratislava, Slovakia); Boris Fisera (Slovak Academy of Sciences; Charles University, Prague); Maria Siranova (Slovak Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the effect of income inequality on the transmission of standard and unconventional monetary policy shocks to bank loan rates. We hypothesize that income inequality might encapsulate important characteristics of credit market demand. We use an interacted panel error correction model to examine a set of EA countries over the years 2008-2016. Our findings suggest that higher income inequality hinders the transmission of standard monetary policy to consumer loans and limits the use of unconventional monetary policy in the housing loans segment. Conversely, more unequal societies are characterized by stronger monetary transmission in the small firm loans segment.
    Keywords: interest-rate pass-through, interacted PMG, income inequality, standard monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy
    JEL: D31 E21 E52 E58
    Date: 2021–05
  16. By: Dauren Oshakbaev; Zhanna Akisheva; Alexandre Martoussevitch (OECD)
    Abstract: Water security is a matter of great national importance for Kazakhstan, with its Security Council meeting on 26 June 2019 devoted to “Ensuring Water Security”. This paper presents recent progress in Kazakhstan with regard to identifying water security priorities and establishing indicators to monitor and measure progress towards achieving water security. The paper also analyses those water security indicators that simultaneously relate to the “nationalised” Green Growth Indicators (GGIs) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators that are relevant to water security, and also identifies opportunities for complimentary indicators to be developed to track the full suite of water security targets. The paper identifies remaining challenges for future work in this domain, including improving data collection and reporting; and integrating water security indicators into relevant policy documents, strategies and plans to secure the technical and political attention necessary to drive progress in this domain.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, SDG indicators, water security, water security indicators, water-related green growth
    JEL: Q25 Q15 Q28 Q56 D78
    Date: 2021–06–02
  17. By: Niftiyev, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Azerbaijan's economy is extractive industry-led and not well-diversified. A comprehensive understanding of the role of the oil industry in the Azerbaijani economy is still a desideratum. Azerbaijan's national economy was a popular case study for the theories such as the natural resource curse (NRS) and Dutch disease (DD); however, a conclusive statement is yet to be found. Many new questions arise as the impact of the crisis periods, institutions, and monetary indicators are being explored. This working paper is nothing more than experimentation results for the Azerbaijan economy within the NRS and DD theories. Surely, not everything can be achieved from the first trial and sound accomplishments need to be built on the shoulders of the negative results and failed hypotheses tests following the already existing analytical frameworks. Despite data issues and lack of proper theoretical conceptualizations of the Azerbaijan economy, this working paper reports the results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Robust Least Squares (RLS) to orient the follow-up studies in the near future. Despite academia argues that nowadays linear relationships are hard to obtain, this working paper's main assumption is still a linear association among the variables of interest. Despite the results from this working paper are mixed, particular negative associations between the institutional quality measured via the several political, institutional, and governance indicators, and oil-related variables are present in the case of Azerbaijan between 1996–2019. To explain, although the negative impacts of the real effective exchange rate (REER), REER growth rates, the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and NEER growth rates were less than expected, oil prices and changes in oil prices played a great role (negative) in the output, employment, and returns on capital in the Azerbaijani economy. Moreover, particular negative associations between the oil-related variables, and institutional, political, and governance indicators are present, whereas the quantity and quality of the education in the Azerbaijan economy do not fully reflect any serious negative impacts. These experimental models possess a high amount of stability; however, they should be treated as initial starting points. The mentioned facts must be considered by the policymakers when the non-oil development of the Azerbaijani economy is being discussed.
    Keywords: Azerbaijan economy,mineral sectors,oil industry,natural resource curse theory,Dutch disease hypothesis,institutions,economic sectors,OLS regression,Stepwise regression
    Date: 2021

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